Will the Swiss National Bank Reintroduce Negative Rates?

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its latest interest rate decision tomorrow. While the market expects a 25-basis-point rate cut, there remains a possibility of an unexpected reintroduction of negative rates.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.81738

Entry Price

0.83900

0.80200

0.79618 +0.00036 +0.05%

7.4

Pips

Profit

0.80200

0.81812

Exit Price

0.81738

Entry Price

0.83900

Fundamentals

As of the European trading session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8160, down 0.05% on the day. Market focus today centers on the SNB's rate decision scheduled for tomorrow (June 19th). The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point cut to 0%, but uncertainty around the policy path has heightened depreciation pressure on the Swiss franc.

A Reuters poll shows that 27 out of 30 economists expect the SNB to cut rates to 0%, while three foresee a potential resumption of negative rates at -0.25%. A rate cut would further narrow the CHF's interest-rate advantage, diminishing its appeal. Though the franc retains its long-term status as a safe-haven currency, near-term policy easing expectations may weigh on its strength. Meanwhile, Switzerland's May CPI fell 0.1% year-on-year, intensifying deflationary risks and providing data-driven justification for monetary easing.

Technical Analysis

Will the Swiss National Bank Reintroduce Negative Rates?_1

Based on the daily chart, USD/CHF enters a key support zone after recent consecutive declines. A double-bottom pattern is formed near 0.8060, with short-term upward momentum gradually emerging. Additionally, the pair has closed higher for three consecutive sessions, confirming the validity of the double-bottom support and suggesting further potential gains.

The USD/CHF is currently facing resistance at 0.8190. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a test of the 0.8400-0.8475 resistance zone.

Buying at lows is recommended.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8160

Target price: 0.8390

Stop loss: 0.8020

Valid Until: July 2, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 0.8085/0.8036

Resistance: 0.8190/0.8400

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The renewed interaction with this support zone may lay the groundwork for another potential bullish rebound. If momentum builds, the first resistance to watch lies around 1.3522.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.34292

Entry Price

1.35220

1.33700

1.33661 -0.00046 -0.03%

29.5

Pips

Profit

1.33700

1.34587

Exit Price

1.34292

Entry Price

1.35220

This week’s economic calendar places the British Pound (GBP) and U.S. Dollar (USD) under the spotlight, as traders brace for two high-impact events. The UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is set to be released on Wednesday, just one day ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) pivotal monetary policy decision. These data points are likely to shape expectations surrounding the future path of UK interest rates and could be decisive for the short-term direction of the Pound.

At the same time, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its own rate decision on Wednesday. This could provide a fresh catalyst for the greenback, with any hawkish surprises potentially triggering sharp moves in the GBP/USD pair. In the background, markets remain cautious amid rising speculation that the BoE may deliver rate cuts sooner and more aggressively than previously expected—an outlook reinforced by recent figures showing the UK economy contracted more than anticipated in April. These headwinds have weighed on the Pound’s performance and contributed to increased volatility across GBP crosses.

Meanwhile, the latest U.S. data has continued to present a mixed macroeconomic picture. Retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, the steepest drop in four months, reflecting cautious consumer behavior amid rising uncertainty linked to potential new tariffs. However, the Retail Sales Control Group—which feeds into GDP—posted a stronger-than-expected 0.4% increase, offering some resilience. Industrial production, however, slipped by 0.2%, undershooting forecasts and highlighting ongoing weakness in U.S. manufacturing output.

Geopolitical tensions have also re-entered the spotlight. U.S. President Donald Trump issued sharp warnings to Iran, demanding an “unconditional surrender” and the dismantling of its nuclear program. Praising recent Israeli airstrikes as "excellent" and "very successful," Trump suggested that future operations could be even more intense unless Tehran agrees to a deal. Speaking from Air Force One after the G7 summit, he made it clear that he is not interested in temporary truces, but rather in achieving a complete end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. "They should have taken the deal… I'm not in the mood to negotiate," he added.

On the inflation front, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for May offered further signs of cooling price pressures. Headline PPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, slightly above April’s 2.5% and in line with expectations. However, the core PPI, which excludes volatile components like food and energy, eased to 3.0% from the prior 3.2%, reinforcing the broader narrative that underlying inflation is gradually declining. Major Support in Focus as GBPUSD Eyes a Potential Rebound_1

Major Support in Focus as GBPUSD Eyes a Potential Rebound_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has once again revisited a strong support zone around the 1.3419 area—a level last tested on May 28. Following that earlier test, the pair staged a bullish bounce that led to a local high near 1.3632. The renewed interaction with this support zone may lay the groundwork for another potential bullish rebound. If momentum builds, the first resistance to watch lies around 1.3522. A clear breakout above this area could pave the way for a retest of recent highs.

This support zone gains further significance as it aligns closely with the 200-period moving average, currently sitting near 1.3430. A pullback into this zone could be viewed as a healthy technical correction, offering a potential launchpad for another leg higher.

Momentum indicators further support the bullish case. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 31, approaching oversold territory and signaling a potential influx of buyers. Moreover, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence compared to the price action observed on May 28. This divergence suggests weakening bearish momentum and may indicate that sellers are losing steam.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3427

Target price: 1.3522

Stop loss: 1.3370

Validity: Jun 25, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This area may act as a pivot point, and if sellers regain control, a pullback toward the next major support around 0.8103 could materialize.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.81685

Entry Price

0.81050

0.82100

0.79618 +0.00036 +0.05%

41.5

Pips

Loss

0.81050

0.82100

Exit Price

0.81685

Entry Price

0.82100

Recent U.S. economic data revealed a mixed macroeconomic landscape. Retail sales in May declined by 0.9% month-over-month—the sharpest drop in four months—as consumer spending contracted amid growing uncertainty over new tariffs. However, the Retail Sales Control Group, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, defied expectations with a stronger-than-expected 0.4% increase, helping to cushion the overall picture. Meanwhile, U.S. industrial production fell by 0.2% in May, missing market expectations of a modest rise and exposing ongoing weaknesses in the manufacturing sector.

Adding to global market tension were comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who called on Iran to agree to an "unconditional surrender" and dismantle its nuclear program or face escalating consequences. Praising recent Israeli airstrikes as "excellent" and "highly successful," Trump warned that future operations could be "even more brutal," urging Tehran to "make a deal now" or face total defeat. Speaking earlier aboard Air Force One after the G7 summit, the president made clear he was not seeking a ceasefire, but rather a “real end” to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, adding: “They should’ve taken the deal... I’m not in the mood to negotiate.”

On the inflation front, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May pointed to continued disinflationary pressures. Headline PPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, in line with forecasts and slightly above April’s 2.5% print. However, core PPI—which excludes the more volatile food and energy components—edged down to 3.0% from 3.2%, reinforcing the view that underlying inflation is slowly retreating.

Meanwhile, data out of Switzerland continued to highlight subdued inflation dynamics. Producer and import prices fell by 0.7% year-over-year in May—deeper than April’s 0.5% decline—underscoring persistent disinflationary forces. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.5%, surprising markets by reversing the previous month’s 0.1% uptick. This added further weight to expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may opt for further policy easing in its upcoming meeting.

Reinforcing the dovish narrative, Switzerland’s KOF Economic Institute revised down its growth forecast for 2026, citing unpredictability in U.S. trade policy as a key headwind. The think tank now projects adjusted GDP growth of 1.5% in 2026—a 0.4-point downgrade—while leaving its 2025 outlook unchanged at 1.4%. KOF also anticipates a gradual rise in unemployment to a neutral 3% by the end of next year and foresees a slowdown in job creation due to mounting political uncertainty. Softer energy prices and the resilient Swiss franc (CHF) also prompted KOF to cut its inflation forecasts to 0.2% for 2025 and 0.5% for 2026. A Bearish Turn May Be Brewing Near the 0.618 Fibonacci Level_1

A Bearish Turn May Be Brewing Near the 0.618 Fibonacci Level_1

Technical Analysis

USD/CHF has extended its rally, climbing from the June 12 low of 0.8055 to test the 200-period moving average around 0.8170. This move has brought the pair into the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone—a key level that often signals potential exhaustion in short-term bullish momentum. This area may act as a pivot point, and if sellers regain control, a pullback toward the next major support around 0.8103 could materialize.

From a momentum perspective, the RSI has climbed to 68, nearing overbought territory. This reading could encourage bearish participants to test the resilience of current resistance. Should the 0.8170 level hold, we may see a downward reaction from this area. A break below the 100-period SMA, now located around 0.8129, could trigger a sharper bearish acceleration. However, if the bulls manage to decisively push above the current resistance, the rally could resume, extending the upside move from this critical zone.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8170

Target price: 0.8105

Stop loss: 0.8210

Validity: Jun 26, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Forex

Summary:

On June 17, 2025, the GBP/JPY pair continued its strong uptrend, reaching a multi-week high. This increase was supported by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to keep interest rates on hold and expectations for the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy....

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

195.700

Entry Price

196.000

195.400

207.302 -1.021 -0.49%

30.0

Pips

Loss

195.400

195.399

Exit Price

195.700

Entry Price

196.000

Overview

On June 17, 2025, GBP/JPY rose to 196.85, marking a multi-week high. The rally was largely driven by the BoJ's decision to keep interest rates at 0.5% and its plan to slow down its purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) starting in fiscal 2026.

The decision reflects the BoJ's cautious stance on monetary policy amid global uncertainty and concerns about the impact of the US-Japan trade war. Meanwhile, GBP is also supported by expectations that the BoE will keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, although there may be adjustments in the near future.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is bullish for GBP/JPY. The RSI (14) on the chart is currently at 56, indicating that the market is not overbought and there is still room for growth. However, investors should note that any signs of weakness from the UK or Japanese economies could impact this trend.

Technical analysis

On the chart, GBP/JPY is currently trading above its 50-period moving average, indicating a short-term uptrend. The next resistance level is located at 197.23, the May high.

If the price breaks above this level, the next target could be 198.06. However, if the price falls below the support level of 195.00, a correction signal towards 193.74 could appear.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 195.7

Take Profit: 196

Stop Loss: 195.4

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On June 17, 2025, the EUR/USD pair recorded a sharp decline, breaking the support level of 1.1550. This weakness was driven by expectations of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economic situation in the eurozone....

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.15000

Entry Price

1.14500

1.15500

1.17340 -0.00054 -0.05%

32.1

Pips

Profit

1.14500

1.14679

Exit Price

1.15000

Entry Price

1.15500

Overview

On June 17, 2025, EUR/USD fell to 1.1530, breaking the key support level of 1.1550. This weakness was mainly driven by expectations that the Fed would maintain a steady interest rate policy at its upcoming meeting, while the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates low. This created a difference in interest rates between the USD and EUR, increasing the attractiveness of the US dollar.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment shows caution and concerns about the global economic outlook. The RSI (14) on the 15-minute chart is currently at 36.18, indicating that the market is not overbought and may continue its downtrend. This reflects investors’ indecision in determining the next direction of the pair.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD Drops Sharply Below 1.1550: Will the Downtrend Continue?_1

On the 15-minute chart, EUR/USD is currently trading below the resistance level of 1.1550, indicating a short-term downtrend. The next support level is located at 1.1500. If the price breaks this level, the next target could be 1.1450. The RSI (14) indicator currently at 36.18 does not indicate oversold or overbought conditions, but if the indicator drops further, it could be a sign of a deeper correction.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: Open a sell order when price breaks the support level of 1.1500.

Take Profit: Set profit target at 1.1450.

Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the 1.1550 resistance level to limit risk.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On June 17, 2025, the USD/JPY pair recorded a strong increase, reaching a peak of 145.13, surpassing an important resistance level. This increase was supported by the decision of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep interest rates and expectations for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed)...

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

145.400

Entry Price

146.200

144.000

155.098 -0.716 -0.46%

43.3

Pips

Profit

144.000

145.833

Exit Price

145.400

Entry Price

146.200

Overview

On June 17, 2025, USD/JPY rose to 145.13, marking a multi-week high. The rally was largely driven by the BoJ's decision to keep interest rates at 0.5% and its plan to slow down its purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) starting in fiscal 2026.

The decision reflects the BoJ's cautious stance on monetary policy amid global uncertainties and concerns about the impact of the US-Japan trade war. The dollar was also supported by expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, although there may be adjustments in the near future.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is bullish for USD/JPY. The RSI (14) on the chart is currently at 56, indicating that the market is not overbought and there is still room for growth. However, investors should note that any signs of weakness from the US or Japanese economies could affect this trend.

Technical analysis

USD/JPY Continues Uptrend: Will the Uptrend Sustain?_1

On the chart, USD/JPY is trading above its 50-period moving average, indicating a short-term bullish bias. The next resistance level is located at 145.47, the May high. If the price breaks above this level, the next target could be 146.25. However, if the price breaks below the support level of 144.00, a correction towards 142.20 could be signaled.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 145,4

Take Profit: 146,25.

Stop Loss: 144,00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Summary:

On June 17, 2025, the XAUUSD gold market recorded a correction after failing to stay above the $3,440 resistance level. Factors influencing the correction included geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, along with expectations for the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy....

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3385.13

Entry Price

3430.00

3360.00

4342.89 +43.50 +1.01%

251.3

Pips

Loss

3360.00

Exit Price

3385.13

Entry Price

3430.00

Overview

As of the end of June 17, 2025, the price of gold XAUUSD fluctuated around $3,382.29, down slightly from the intraday high of $3,403.37. This correction came after the price of gold failed to sustain above the resistance level of $3,440, its highest level in the past two months.

Key drivers include geopolitical tensions and expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The conflict between Iran and Israel continues to escalate, with back-and-forth attacks and US President Donald Trump calling for an evacuation from Tehran, boosting demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

This tension creates an environment of uncertainty, with investors seeking stability in assets, with gold being a top choice. In addition, expectations for Fed monetary policy also play a role. Although the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meetings, investors are still anticipating a rate cut by the end of 2025. This supports gold prices, as gold tends to appreciate when interest rates fall, reducing the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is cautious and indecisive. The RSI (14) on the 15-minute chart is currently at 41.29, indicating a lack of clear direction, with gold neither overbought nor oversold. This reflects a cautious market state, with investors unable to decide whether gold’s uptrend will continue or if it will undergo a sharp correction.

It is also worth noting that when gold prices reach short-term highs like they are now, concerns about a correction could lead investors to move away from gold and instead seek other assets such as government bonds, which are often seen as safe havens in times of uncertainty. Concerns about global politics and the economy have increased demand for defensive assets such as gold, but have also made investors cautious about continuing to buy.

Technical analysis

Gold Price XAUUSD Pauses Below $3,400: Will the Uptrend Continue?_1

Technical analysis shows that gold is currently trading below the resistance level of $3,412.62, a key level on the chart. If it fails to break above this level, the downtrend could continue with the next targets at $3,373.23 and $3,343.53 respectively.

The current RSI (14) at 41.29 does not indicate oversold or overbought, but if the indicator drops further, it could be a sign of a deeper correction.

The MACD is currently below the signal line, suggesting that the downtrend may remain in place in the short term. At the same time, the moving averages (MA50 and MA200) are also giving sell signals, supporting the forecast that gold will face a short-term correction before it can resume its uptrend.

The Bollinger Bands are currently tightening, indicating a lack of strong volatility, but a breakout into or out of this range could send gold prices moving in a clearer direction in the coming days.