On August 21st, the White House released a joint statement with the EU announcing that the two sides had agreed on the framework of a trade agreement. The EU also issued a corresponding joint statement shortly afterward. The agreement followed intensive negotiations between Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commission's Executive Vice-President for Trade and Economic Security, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. European Commission President von der Leyen stated that cooperation with the U.S. will continue to finalize further tariff reductions and identify additional areas of collaboration. According to reports, the trade agreement framework includes 19 key points covering a wide range of issues such as agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft and other industrial goods, semiconductors and chips, energy, EU investment in the U.S., relaxation of environmental regulatory restrictions, cybersecurity agreements, and digital trade barriers. The EU is set to eliminate all tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and provide preferential market access for U.S. agricultural products. Eurozone economic data shows signs of moderate recovery. The Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 51.1 (previous 50.9), hitting a 15-month high, with new orders growing for the first time since May. The Manufacturing PMI entered expansion territory for the first time in three years (50.5), marking the fastest output growth in three and a half years. The Services PMI dipped slightly to 50.7 but remained in expansion. Employment has risen for six consecutive months, with the fastest job growth since June. However, manufacturing continues to shed jobs, contrasting with hiring in the services sector. Positive developments in both trade and economic data are highly likely to drive the euro higher.

The USDX remained firm and sustained recent gains, supported by strong U.S. PMI data that included hawkish commentary. Additionally, recent remarks from Fed officials such as Beth Hammack and Jeffrey R. Schmid reflected a tough stance on inflation and signaled that there is no urgency to cut interest rates. Austan Goolsbee pointed out that the upcoming September FOMC meeting is live, but when asked about a potential rate cut in September, he responded that he didn't want to be pinned down. Currently, all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Based on the EURUSD daily chart, a death cross (the MACD line crosses the signal line) emerges with the RSI showing lower highs. The price failed to make new highs, forming a head-and-shoulders top pattern, also signaling a bearish divergence. Thus, EURUSD is more likely to descend with oscillations. Currently, the price is supported by the daily EMA50, and holding above this level could sustain the uptrend. However, a break below could lead to further declines toward the Bollinger Lower Band and EMA200, around 1.146 and 1.121, respectively. Regarding the 15-minute chart, Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, and the RSI stays at 40, suggesting a short-term decline pattern. However, the MACD has formed a bullish crossover below the zero line (bullish divergence underwater), with decreasing bearish momentum and a new price low. This is another sign of bearish divergence, suggesting a potential bounce. Yet, even if a bounce occurs, it is unlikely to reverse the overall downtrend. Therefore, the short-term trading strategy remains focused on selling at highs.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.161

Target price: 1.14

Stop loss: 1.17

Support: 1.159/1.145/1.14

Resistance: 1.17/1.183/1.19

The upside potential for the USD/CAD may be limited, as the Bank of Canada has less room for additional interest rate cuts, which could provide support for the CAD. Canada's industrial product prices rose 0.7% month-on-month in July, up from 0.5% in June and exceeding market expectations of 0.3%. The Prime Minister's Office of Canada issued a statement on Thursday saying that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had a phone conversation with US President Donald Trump, during which they engaged in a broad and productive exchange on trade challenges and other issues. This was the first phone call between the two leaders since June 30, amid ongoing trade friction between Canada and the US. The call was initiated by Trudeau, and the two leaders discussed not only trade issues but also the situation in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza. They agreed to hold another meeting soon, but no specific arrangements were announced.

As the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has decreased, the USD has strengthened, and the USD/CAD exchange rate has also appreciated. Traders are awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming, which may provide new clues about the policy outlook for September. Federal Fund futures traders currently estimate a 75% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 82% on Wednesday. The likelihood of a rate cut has decreased due to strong US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data and rising initial jobless claims. The preliminary August S&P Global US Composite PMI rose slightly to 55.4 from 55.1 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the preliminary US manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 from the previous reading of 49.8, exceeding the market expectation of 49.5. The preliminary services PMI fell to 55.4 from the previous reading of 55.7, but remained stronger than the expected 54.2. Following the release of these data, the USD index rebounded and rose.

From a 15-minute chart perspective, the MACD histogram for the USD/CAD shows gradually weakening bullish momentum, while the price has reached new highs. The RSI reading is 59, but its peaks are progressively declining, indicating a bearish divergence signal. This suggests a higher probability of a subsequent adjustment. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, the moving averages are flattening out, and the MACD has formed a death cross. If a bearish candle breaks below the moving averages, it would signal an ultra-short-term decline. The support levels below are the EMA200 and the previous low, at 1.388 and 1.387, respectively. On the weekly chart, the price is oscillating and rising between the upper Bollinger Band and the EMA12. The Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, and the moving averages are diverging upward, indicating that the bullish trend remains ongoing. The ultra-short-term RSI reading is 67, suggesting strong upward momentum, but caution is needed as it may approach overbought territory at any time. Meanwhile, the price is nearing the trend resistance line and the previous high, at 1.3925 and 1.401, respectively, and a pullback should be watched for. For the strategy, it is recommended to go short and then go long.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3914

Target price: 1.387

Stop loss: 1.395

Support: 1.387, 1.384, 1.38

Resistance: 1.395, 1.4, 1.401

Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, struck a notably hawkish tone in her remarks on Thursday, stressing the importance of keeping inflation firmly under control. She warned that the economic effects of recently imposed tariffs are only beginning to surface and could intensify throughout next year. While she acknowledged that the Fed is approaching a more neutral stance, Hammack dismissed the possibility of imminent rate cuts, arguing that premature easing could undermine progress in curbing inflation.

The Fed’s minutes released on Wednesday revealed that most policymakers viewed tariff-related inflation as a greater risk than a cooling labor market. Officials noted that the impact of reciprocal tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump may take time to filter through the economy, as many companies are expected to gradually pass higher costs onto consumers. Several participants also anticipated softer growth in the second half of the year, as declining household income pressures spending. Although a minority of members argued for earlier rate cuts, the majority favored keeping policy steady, with dissenting voices from Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Looking ahead, officials emphasized that the path of rate reductions will depend heavily on incoming data and the persistence of tariff-driven inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims rose to 235K last week, the highest level in eight weeks and above the consensus forecast of 225K. The increase suggests some signs of labor market softening, contrasting with stronger-than-expected PMI figures. This combination highlights the mixed picture the Fed faces as it attempts to balance rising inflationary risks against emerging signs of cooling employment conditions.

Across the Atlantic, the United States and the European Union introduced a long-awaited joint trade framework on Thursday, a significant step toward easing transatlantic frictions. The agreement caps most tariffs at 15%, alleviating fears of escalating protectionism. However, U.S. auto tariffs remain fixed at 27.5% until the EU enacts its own tariff reduction measures. Under the deal, the EU pledged to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy supplies—including LNG, oil, and nuclear—by 2028, in addition to $40 billion in American AI chips, aimed at safeguarding Europe’s technological supply chains.

On the economic front, Eurozone manufacturing unexpectedly returned to expansion in August, while services activity slowed, according to HCOB’s latest PMI report. The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in August from 49.8 in July, comfortably exceeding expectations of 49.5. In contrast, the services PMI slipped to 50.7 from 51, slightly below forecasts of 50.8 and hitting a two-month low. The composite PMI, however, edged higher to 51, outperforming both July’s 50.9 reading and the 50.7 anticipated by analysts.

Meanwhile, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is expected to remain steady at 2.0% year-on-year, matching June’s figure, while monthly inflation is projected to hold flat at 0.0%. Core inflation is anticipated to stay at 2.3% annually, unchanged from the prior month, though the 0.2% monthly decline suggests a modest easing in underlying price pressures.

EURUSD has recently extended its downward momentum, reaching 1.1598—a critical support level that previously triggered a strong bullish reversal toward 1.1730. This same area may once again serve as the foundation for a fresh upside move, potentially driving the pair back toward the descending trendline, which is closely tracked by the moving averages. On the 1-hour chart, the 100- and 200-period moving averages sit tightly together at 1.1662 and 1.1663, suggesting that in the event of a corrective bounce, price action may gravitate toward these levels.

The RSI has fallen to 31, approaching oversold territory, which indicates that bearish momentum may be weakening. Combined with recent high volatility, these conditions could open the door to a corrective rebound toward 1.1650, and if the descending trendline is broken decisively, the way could be cleared for a more extended bullish impulse. However, if support at 1.1598 fails to hold, a deeper correction to the downside should be anticipated.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1615

Target price: 1.1650

Stop loss: 1.1585

Validity: Aug 29, 2025 15:00:00

The United States and the European Union unveiled a long-anticipated joint trade framework on Thursday, marking a significant step in easing transatlantic tensions. The deal sets a ceiling of 15% on most tariffs, helping to calm concerns over rising protectionism. However, U.S. auto tariffs remain firmly at 27.5% until the EU introduces its own tariff-reduction measures. As part of the arrangement, the EU committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy supplies—including LNG, oil, and nuclear—by 2028. In addition, Europe pledged to buy $40 billion in American AI chips in a bid to secure its technological supply chains and reduce vulnerability to external shocks.

On the macroeconomic front, Eurozone manufacturing unexpectedly returned to expansion, while the services sector contracted in August, according to the latest HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey released Thursday. The manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.5 in August from 49.8 in July, beating market expectations of 49.5 by a wide margin.

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is projected to hold steady at 2.0% year-on-year, the same as in June, with monthly inflation expected to remain flat at 0.0%. Similarly, core inflation is anticipated to stay at 2.3% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month, though the monthly core figure dipped by 0.2%, hinting at a modest easing of underlying price pressures.

In contrast, the services PMI dipped to 50.7 from 51 in July, slightly missing the estimated figure of 50.8 and marking a two-month low.

Across the Atlantic, Canadian data released Tuesday showed that headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 1.7% year-over-year in July, down from 1.9% in June and in line with market forecasts. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in the previous month. Core CPI, closely monitored by the Bank of Canada (BoC) because it excludes volatile items such as food and energy, advanced 2.6% on an annual basis and 0.1% month-over-month.

EURCAD has repeatedly encountered stiff resistance around 1.6184, a level that has triggered three prior pullbacks. If this pattern repeats, a close below 1.6080 could accelerate bearish momentum. In such a scenario, the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart, currently located at 1.6022 and 1.6003 respectively, may serve as potential downside targets for a corrective move.

Adding to this view, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently touched 72 as the pair approached these resistance levels, signaling classic overbought conditions. This suggests that a short-term correction could materialize, even if the broader trend remains tilted to the upside. Key support lies at 1.5938, a level that aligns closely with the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, making it an area of high technical importance should selling pressure intensify. On the other hand, a decisive breakout above resistance with strong momentum would invalidate the bearish setup and open the door for further gains.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.6140

Target price: 1.5950

Stop loss: 1.6250

Validity: Aug 29, 2025 15:00:00

In July, Canada's overall CPI year-over-year increase decelerated to 1.7%, down from 1.9% and below expectations. This decline was primarily driven by a significant 16.1% year-over-year decrease in gasoline prices, a larger drop than the 13.4% decrease observed in June. Excluding gasoline, the CPI year-over-year increase remained stable at 2.5%, consistent with the previous two months. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI rose by 0.3%, in line with forecasts.

Key indicators presented a mixed picture. The CPI median increased by 3.1% year-over-year, meeting expectations, while the CPI trimmed remained at 3.0% year-over-year. The CPI average rose by 2.6% year-over-year, slightly below the anticipated 2.7%. Overall, the data suggest that inflation has not accelerated, but underlying pressures persist.

The data reinforces the view that while headline inflation is cooling, core inflation remains elevated, suggesting the Bank of Canada is not yet in a position to consider interest rate cuts. Headline inflation eased to 1.7% in July, primarily due to lower energy prices, reflecting the removal of the Canadian consumer carbon tax. However, this trend was offset by increases in food, shelter, and durable goods prices. The rise in durable goods may be linked to tariffs.

Both headline and core inflation, which currently exceeds 3%, are expected to trend higher in the near term as the costs associated with U.S.-Canada tariff disputes are gradually passed on to retail prices. We anticipate the Bank of Canada will hold the policy interest rate steady at 2.75% on September 17.

Following a "bottoming" pattern at 1.3535, the USDCAD has further consolidated its upward momentum, surpassing both the multi-month trendline and the 50-day SMA. With the MACD indicator returning to positive territory and immediate support at 1.3700, the asset is poised to test higher levels at 1.3910.

A sustained break of 1.3910 would target the cluster resistance at 1.4014 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.4791-1.3538 range, located at 1.4017). If this resistance reasserts selling pressure, a corrective rebound is anticipated, resuming the downward trend.

On the downside, a break below the minor support at 1.3830 would initially shift the intraday bias to neutral.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.3910

Target Price: 1.3474

Stop Loss: 1.4060

Valid Until: September 5, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3830, 1.3798, 1.3722

Resistance: 1.3910, 1.3947, 1.4017

CAD/CHF has been under pressure, with the pair closing below the 0.6020 resistance level, activating negative momentum. The price is now testing the support at 0.5785, and a break below this level could lead to further declines toward 0.5735 and 0.5655.

The market sentiment remains bearish, with CAD/CHF trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a negative setup in the near, medium, and long-term.

On the chart, CAD/CHF is trading within a bearish channel, with the price approaching the lower boundary. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing negative momentum, supporting the bearish outlook.

Entry: 0.58100

TP: 0.5735

SL: 0.5830