USD/JPY Continues Uptrend: Will the Uptrend Sustain?

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On June 17, 2025, the USD/JPY pair recorded a strong increase, reaching a peak of 145.13, surpassing an important resistance level. This increase was supported by the decision of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep interest rates and expectations for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed)...

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

145.400

Entry Price

146.200

144.000

155.814 +0.255 +0.16%

43.3

Pips

Profit

144.000

145.833

Exit Price

145.400

Entry Price

146.200

Overview

On June 17, 2025, USD/JPY rose to 145.13, marking a multi-week high. The rally was largely driven by the BoJ's decision to keep interest rates at 0.5% and its plan to slow down its purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) starting in fiscal 2026.

The decision reflects the BoJ's cautious stance on monetary policy amid global uncertainties and concerns about the impact of the US-Japan trade war. The dollar was also supported by expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, although there may be adjustments in the near future.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is bullish for USD/JPY. The RSI (14) on the chart is currently at 56, indicating that the market is not overbought and there is still room for growth. However, investors should note that any signs of weakness from the US or Japanese economies could affect this trend.

Technical analysis

USD/JPY Continues Uptrend: Will the Uptrend Sustain?_1

On the chart, USD/JPY is trading above its 50-period moving average, indicating a short-term bullish bias. The next resistance level is located at 145.47, the May high. If the price breaks above this level, the next target could be 146.25. However, if the price breaks below the support level of 144.00, a correction towards 142.20 could be signaled.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 145,4

Take Profit: 146,25.

Stop Loss: 144,00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Summary:

On June 17, 2025, the XAUUSD gold market recorded a correction after failing to stay above the $3,440 resistance level. Factors influencing the correction included geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, along with expectations for the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy....

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3385.13

Entry Price

3430.00

3360.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

251.3

Pips

Loss

3360.00

Exit Price

3385.13

Entry Price

3430.00

Overview

As of the end of June 17, 2025, the price of gold XAUUSD fluctuated around $3,382.29, down slightly from the intraday high of $3,403.37. This correction came after the price of gold failed to sustain above the resistance level of $3,440, its highest level in the past two months.

Key drivers include geopolitical tensions and expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The conflict between Iran and Israel continues to escalate, with back-and-forth attacks and US President Donald Trump calling for an evacuation from Tehran, boosting demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

This tension creates an environment of uncertainty, with investors seeking stability in assets, with gold being a top choice. In addition, expectations for Fed monetary policy also play a role. Although the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meetings, investors are still anticipating a rate cut by the end of 2025. This supports gold prices, as gold tends to appreciate when interest rates fall, reducing the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is cautious and indecisive. The RSI (14) on the 15-minute chart is currently at 41.29, indicating a lack of clear direction, with gold neither overbought nor oversold. This reflects a cautious market state, with investors unable to decide whether gold’s uptrend will continue or if it will undergo a sharp correction.

It is also worth noting that when gold prices reach short-term highs like they are now, concerns about a correction could lead investors to move away from gold and instead seek other assets such as government bonds, which are often seen as safe havens in times of uncertainty. Concerns about global politics and the economy have increased demand for defensive assets such as gold, but have also made investors cautious about continuing to buy.

Technical analysis

Gold Price XAUUSD Pauses Below $3,400: Will the Uptrend Continue?_1

Technical analysis shows that gold is currently trading below the resistance level of $3,412.62, a key level on the chart. If it fails to break above this level, the downtrend could continue with the next targets at $3,373.23 and $3,343.53 respectively.

The current RSI (14) at 41.29 does not indicate oversold or overbought, but if the indicator drops further, it could be a sign of a deeper correction.

The MACD is currently below the signal line, suggesting that the downtrend may remain in place in the short term. At the same time, the moving averages (MA50 and MA200) are also giving sell signals, supporting the forecast that gold will face a short-term correction before it can resume its uptrend.

The Bollinger Bands are currently tightening, indicating a lack of strong volatility, but a breakout into or out of this range could send gold prices moving in a clearer direction in the coming days.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 3385

Take Profit: 3430

Stop Loss: 3360

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to hold interest rates steady in a unanimous 8-1 vote on Tuesday, aligning with market consensus. The BOJ opted to maintain its current pace of reduction until March 2026, followed by a gradual decrease in bond purchases, which met market expectations.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

194.996

Entry Price

198.500

193.490

208.323 +0.079 +0.04%

224.9

Pips

Profit

193.490

197.245

Exit Price

194.996

Entry Price

198.500

Fundamentals

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided on Tuesday to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.5% in a unanimous decision, while also maintaining its current bond reduction plan until March 2026.

In its statement, the BOJ lowered its growth outlook, noting that the Japanese economy "may slow down" in the short term as overseas economies slow and domestic corporate profits decline. Although the accommodative financial environment should provide some support, the central bank expects only a moderate recovery in the Japanese economy in the later stages as global economic growth resumes.

In terms of inflation, the impact of rising food and import prices "is expected to weaken," while the core CPI may remain "sluggish" due to the economic slowdown. However, the central bank expects inflation to gradually rebound over time as medium- and long-term inflation expectations rise and the "sense of labor shortage" intensifies with the economic recovery.

The BOJ acknowledged the "highly uncertain" outlook for the global trade and policy environment, warning of spillover effects on Japanese financial markets and inflation. The statement emphasized the need to closely monitor foreign exchange market dynamics and their broader implications.

Looking ahead, the central bank introduced a new bond-buying program for fiscal year 2026, planning to reduce purchases by 200 billion yen per month each quarter, bringing the total to 2 trillion yen per month by March 2027.

Market analysis suggests that a rate hike in October remains a possibility, despite recent market expectations pushing the next increase to early next year. Upcoming wage data will validate the robust wage increases achieved in the spring negotiations, while a trade agreement with the U.S. may offer greater clarity on future prospects.

With the market already pricing in a rate hike of just over 10 basis points for the remainder of the year, significant movements in the yen are anticipated later this year, although pinpointing the timing of a yen rebound in the near term is challenging. From a market positioning perspective, the most likely "reverse pain trade" scenario is further yen weakness.

Bank of Japan Has Maintained Its Current Policy, Expecting a Gradual Rebound in Inflation Following a Period of Short-term Weakness_1

Technical Analysis

Following the BOJ's monetary policy announcement on Tuesday, the GBPJPY extended its retracement from Monday's peak of 196.85. However, the GBPJPY has, thus far, maintained stability above the previous week's high of 196.00. A sustained long-term bullish outlook is anticipated, provided the 193.75 support level holds.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 195.00

Target Price: 198.50

Stop Loss: 193.49

Valid Until: July 2, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 195.53, 194.95, 194.66

Resistance: 196.68, 196.84, 197.06

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Middle East Situation

Summary:

Ongoing geopolitical tensions supported safe-haven assets, halting the previous day's retreat from a nearly two-month high. However, investors appeared hesitant to act, opting to await further clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate-cut trajectory before establishing new directional positions.

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

3418.00

Entry Price

3287.00

3448.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

Pips

EXPIRED

3287.00

3342.99

Exit Price

3418.00

Entry Price

3448.00

Fundamentals

On Tuesday, the focus in the gold market will remain on the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Safe-haven buying continues to support gold prices due to the persistent uncertainty.

Furthermore, gold ETFs collectively increased their holdings by 136,032 ounces of gold in the most recent trading session. According to statistics, the net buying by ETFs this year has reached 6 million ounces. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, also recorded an inflow of US$285 million last Friday, the largest single-day inflow in several weeks. These factors continue to provide support for the upward movement of gold prices.

However, in the long term, the conflict between Iran and Israel is unlikely to boost gold prices. The gold market's reaction to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran remains very moderate. Gold prices have risen by less than 1% since Israel's initial attack.

We think that the market's reaction was primarily driven by speculative actors and algorithmic trading systems within the futures market, rather than by physical safe-haven demand. Furthermore, the elevated pre-conflict gold prices suggest limited potential for further algorithmic-driven increases, aligning with historical patterns where geopolitical events do not sustain long-term gold price appreciation.

Currently, investors appear hesitant, preferring to await further clarity on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory before establishing new directional positions. Consequently, market attention will remain centered on the outcomes of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, the agenda of which should provide fresh impetus for both the U.S. dollar and non-yielding gold.

Geopolitical Tensions Continue to Provide Support for the Gold Market, Although They Are Unlikely to Offer Sustained Rally_1

Technical Analysis

Following a brief test of US$3,450 on Monday, gold prices exhibited signs of waning upward momentum. This aligns with the retracement structure following the completion of a head and shoulders bottom pattern. We anticipate this retracement to be followed by another decline after a brief rally.

During Tuesday's European session, gold prices found support above US$3,370, subsequently breaching prior highs on the 5- and 15-minute technical charts, establishing a crucial foundation for a rebound. If prices do not retrace below the intraday low of US$3,374, a short-term bottoming structure will form, testing the midpoint of the significant correction at the US$3,420 range, followed by a further decline to test the support level near the US$3,335 range.

Conversely, a breach above US$3,445 by the bulls would invalidate the bearish forecast.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3418

Target Price: 3287

Stop Loss: 3448

Valid Until: July 2, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3374, 3366, 3340

Resistance: 3418, 3422, 3430

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

GBP/JPY retreats slightly after the BoJ decision but remains buoyed above 196.00. Sterling’s broader weakness weighs, with focus turning to the BoE’s upcoming rate verdict.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

196.400

Entry Price

200.000

195.000

208.323 +0.079 +0.04%

129.6

Pips

Profit

195.000

197.696

Exit Price

196.400

Entry Price

200.000

The British pound extended its mild retreat on Tuesday, pulling back from Monday’s intraday high of 196.85 against the Japanese yen, as traders digested the Bank of Japan’s latest monetary policy decision. Despite the pullback, the GBP/JPY pair continues to exhibit bullish resilience, holding firmly above last week’s peak at 196.00 — a level now acting as key near-term support.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ), as anticipated by market participants, kept its benchmark short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% — a level it raised to earlier this year in a landmark departure from years of ultra-loose policy. But while the decision itself held no surprises, it was the accompanying tone and forward guidance that prompted market contemplation.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, in a somewhat cautious post-meeting press briefing, suggested that while the central bank remains data-dependent, the pace of tightening would be slow and measured. Of note, Ueda flagged a planned reduction in the pace of bond tapering — a deliberate move not expected to begin until April 2026. The message was clear: Japan’s central bank is in no rush to normalize policy aggressively, despite modest inflationary pressures and external uncertainties.

Ueda struck a decidedly neutral stance, neither committing to further rate hikes nor leaning too heavily on dovish rhetoric. However, his comment that inflation is “not rising in an accelerated way” signaled that the BoJ may continue to err on the side of caution, especially amid a murky global trade outlook and the risk of external shocks. This tone was enough to prevent any significant appreciation of the yen, leaving most of the GBP/JPY pair’s dip to be attributed to softness in the British pound itself.

Indeed, the pound traded defensively across the board, falling 0.2% against the US dollar and 0.3% versus the euro. The weakness stems from a growing sense of unease over the UK’s macroeconomic backdrop. A trifecta of downbeat data last week — covering GDP, industrial production, and employment — has cast a shadow over the pound ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement scheduled for Thursday.

The BoE is widely expected to hold its key policy rate steady, but the question now centers on the tone of the statement and any potential dissenting votes. Market participants are keenly awaiting whether Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues will maintain a hawkish lean or begin to prepare markets for potential cuts later this year. With inflation still sticky, the BoE’s room to maneuver remains constrained, yet weakening growth indicators are complicating its path forward.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the GBP/JPY remains entrenched within a bullish price channel. After consolidating above the 195.80 mark — a key horizontal resistance zone — the pair staged a strong rebound that took it near the recent high at 196.85. While profit-taking and broader pound softness have momentarily paused the uptrend, the structure remains supportive of further gains.

Momentum indicators, particularly the stochastic oscillator, suggest a potential reacceleration of bullish momentum. As the oscillator approaches overbought territory, traders are watching for confirmation of renewed buying interest that could target the next key resistance zones at 197.45 and 198.80, respectively.

Unless the pair breaks below 195.85 — the lower end of the projected intraday trading range — the near-term trend remains upward. Continued support above this level would keep the door open for another test of 197.00 and potentially a push toward the psychological 200.00 mark in the coming weeks, contingent on favorable developments from both the BoE and global risk sentiment.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 196.40

STOP LOSS: 195.00

TAKE PROFIT: 200.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

Gold prices trade firmer near $3,400 amid escalating Middle East tensions and a weaker U.S. Dollar, while markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3395.06

Entry Price

3500.00

3350.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

450.6

Pips

Loss

3350.00

3349.98

Exit Price

3395.06

Entry Price

3500.00

Gold prices rose during European trading on Tuesday, with spot XAU/USD advancing 0.4% to hover near the psychologically significant $3,400 mark. The uptick comes as investors seek refuge in safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risk and a softening U.S. Dollar, ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve policy decision.

The move higher in bullion follows renewed conflict in the Middle East after an explosive development late Monday. According to CNBC, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) carried out a high-profile targeted strike that killed Iran’s top military official, Ali Shadmani. Tehran retaliated forcefully, reportedly launching a series of ballistic missiles aimed at Mossad's intelligence headquarters — a rare direct escalation between the two long-standing adversaries.

With the specter of a broader regional war looming, investor appetite for risk has cooled, driving demand into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, Treasuries, and the Swiss franc. The yellow metal, in particular, remains a favored hedge amid military and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Gold’s climb was further underpinned by a softer U.S. Dollar, as the Dollar Index (DXY) slipped toward the 98.00 handle. The greenback’s decline reflects growing investor caution ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision, where policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% corridor.

A weaker Dollar typically benefits gold by lowering its cost to foreign buyers and enhancing its appeal as an alternative store of value. As inflation pressures ease and global monetary policy enters a more data-dependent phase, gold may continue to attract flows, especially if the Fed leans dovish.

“Markets are pricing in the possibility that the Fed could pivot sooner than previously expected, especially if inflation momentum continues to wane,” said an FX strategist at a major European bank. “This environment is typically constructive for gold, particularly with geopolitical tensions heating up.”

Traders are now laser-focused on the Fed’s updated economic projections and the so-called ‘dot plot,’ which offers a glimpse into policymakers’ views on the future path of interest rates. While no change in rates is expected this week, forward guidance could prove critical in shaping market direction.

A reiteration of the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” narrative would likely pose headwinds for gold, given the metal’s non-yielding nature. Conversely, any indication of easing or a shift in tone could reinforce gold’s bullish trajectory.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold remains well-supported despite Monday’s dramatic intraday reversal. The yellow metal had surged to a session high near $3,450 before retreating sharply to lows around $3,375, as headlines hinted at possible ceasefire discussions. The whipsaw action, however, failed to break key trend support.

On the hourly chart, gold found buying interest at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the $3,293–$3,452 leg — located near $3,372 — a zone that now acts as pivotal support. This retracement level coincides with the ascending trend line, preserving the broader bullish bias for now.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounded from oversold territory, while the price continues to hold above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), suggesting that the short-term correction may have exhausted itself.

As long as gold sustains above the $3,370–$3,375 band, a retest of $3,420–$3,450 remains likely. A break above this resistance zone could open the door for a fresh attempt at all-time highs, particularly if the Fed surprises markets with a dovish tilt.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3395

STOP LOSS: 3350

TAKE PROFIT: 3500

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

The Bank of Japan has maintained its current interest rate. However, recent weak economic and employment data from the U.S. have increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. This divergence in monetary policy between the two countries may exert downward pressure on the USDJPY.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

144.582

Entry Price

140.800

145.600

155.814 +0.255 +0.16%

101.8

Pips

Loss

140.800

145.602

Exit Price

144.582

Entry Price

145.600

Fundamentals

Today, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced its monetary policy decision, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and slowing the pace of its government bond purchase reduction to mitigate potential market instability. Despite market expectations for further policy adjustments, Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference remarks were cautious, emphasizing continued rate hikes if economic and price conditions improve, without specifying a timeline.

Although the BOJ's decision held rates steady, the likelihood of further rate hikes in Japan is gradually increasing amid persistent inflation, with the yen's policy advantages becoming more apparent.

In the U.S., recent economic and employment data have been weak, dampening expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates this year, and increasing market bets on a September rate cut. Coupled with escalating global trade concerns, the U.S. Dollar Index has weakened, trading near a three-year low.

Overall, the divergence in monetary policy paths between Japan and the U.S. is evident. Even with the BOJ's unchanged stance, the narrowing interest rate differential driven by the Federal Reserve remains the primary factor driving the USDJPY lower, intensifying the downward pressure on the currency pair.

Technical Analysis

Head and Shoulders Top Pattern Breakdown Targets 140.00!_1

In the 1D timeframe, the USDJPY initiated a bullish rebound after establishing a bottom at 140.00. However, recent price action reveals a pattern of lower highs, indicating diminishing bullish momentum and an increasing probability of a decline. Furthermore, the recent price action has consistently been capped by the MA60, which further elevates the likelihood of a short-term downturn.

Head and Shoulders Top Pattern Breakdown Targets 140.00!_2

In the 4H timeframe, the USDJPY has formed a head and shoulders top pattern. If the price action continues to weaken below the right shoulder at 145.10, the head and shoulders top pattern will be validated. The initial downside target could be a test of the 140.00 support level. A breach of this support level would likely trigger a more significant downward movement.