USD/CHF rebound setup emerges as dollar finds footing amid tariff-induced weakness

Forex

Summary:

On July 10, 2025, USD/CHF hovered around 0.7950, showing signs of stabilization after sustained weakness. A mix of safe‑haven Swiss franc strength due to trade concerns and looming U.S. tariff headlines pressured the pair. However, a bearish pennant and oversold technical signals (RSI, trendline break) suggest potential for a rebound toward 0.8000–0.8050....

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.79699

Entry Price

0.80000

0.79300

0.80440 -0.00015 -0.02%

8.5

Pips

Loss

0.79300

0.79614

Exit Price

0.79699

Entry Price

0.80000

Market Overview

The Swiss franc has rallied in Q1–Q2, gaining 14% vs USD as traders shifted into safe haven assets amid geopolitical and trade uncertainty. Meanwhile USD/CHF is trading below parity, around 0.7950, buoyed by U.S. Treasury strength and dovish Fed minutes showing support for eventual rate cuts. The SNB recently cut rates to 0%, maintaining the option of further intervention. So, while CHF is strong, USD has some support from bond demand and central bank divergence.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment is cautious: the USD is under pressure from fiscal and tariff uncertainties, while CHF remains supported by risk-aversion. Tariff headlines keep markets on edge, but recent stabilization suggests potential short-term relief.

Technical Analysis

USD/CHF rebound setup emerges as dollar finds footing amid tariff-induced weakness_1

Bearish Pennant formed under 0.8000, suggesting a short-term consolidation before a possible reversal

Structure: price broke the bullish correctional uptrend and EMA50, now ranging near 0.7950.

Indicators: RSI is deeply oversold on short timeframes; stochastic signals a corrective bounce.

1‑hour trendline break and retest imply downside fatigue, setting stage for a counter-trend move .

Trade Recommendation

Entry (Long): 0.7945–0.7960: near bottom of pennant & oversold zone

Take Profit: 0.8000: psychological level, marked by pennant resistance

Stop Loss: 0.7930

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On July 10, 2025, EUR/CAD hovers at 1.6035–1.6045, underpinned by dovish BOC tone, softer oil, and stronger euro outlook. With technical confluence suggesting a bullish breakout, key zones include support at 1.6000–1.6030 and resistance around 1.6100....

BUY EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.60251

Entry Price

1.61000

1.59750

1.61051 +0.00188 +0.12%

50.1

Pips

Loss

1.59750

Exit Price

1.60251

Entry Price

1.61000

Market Overview

Canadian dollar softness has accelerated lately, weighed by weaker oil prices and dovish commentary from the Bank of Canada. In contrast, the European Central Bank has maintained a moderately hawkish stance relative to Canada, adding strength to the euro. Meanwhile, forecast models predict a modest bullish move over the next month (~2.7%), reinforcing near-term upside into 1.605–1.610 .

Market Sentiment

The setups and wave analysis across timeframes show strong structural bulls: higher highs/lows sustained on D1/H4/H1, with institutional accumulation bias. The dominant feel is buy-on-dips, with sentiment data supporting a medium-term rally.

Technical Analysis

In framework:

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): Price holds above mid-band (~1.6025–1.6035), riding upper regime—clear bullish signal.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): Candles sit above Tenkan/Kijun and cloud, indicating intraday bullish momentum.

Stochastic (5,3,3): On M15, slightly pulled back but still in bullish zone—momentum intact.

Trade Recommendation

Entry (Long): 1.6025–1.6038 — ideal pullback zone aligned with mid-BB and Ichimoku support

Take Profit: 1.6100 — prior swing high and structural barrier

Stop Loss: 1.5975–1.6000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Summary:

The European Central Bank maintains a hawkish monetary-policy stance, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) keeps the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.25 % and signals that a further easing path remains open.

SELL EURNZD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.94765

Entry Price

1.92730

1.96700

2.01458 -0.00093 -0.05%

193.5

Pips

Loss

1.92730

1.96700

Exit Price

1.94765

Entry Price

1.96700

Fundamentals

Eurozone: Recent communications from the European Central Bank (ECB) have underscored its firm commitment to fighting inflation. Although June's headline CPI showed a modest deceleration, core inflation remains sticky, prompting markets to scale back expectations for additional rate cuts this year. Several ECB officials have stated that “if inflation rebounds, we will not hesitate to raise rates,” a hawkish tone that has enhanced the euro's appeal.

New Zealand: At its Wednesday meeting the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 3.25%. The central bank projects that annual CPI inflation could reach the upper bound of its 1%–3% target range by mid-2025.

However, spare capacity in the economy and easing domestic price pressures are expected to keep overall inflation within the target band, with a return to the 2% midpoint anticipated by early 2026. Elevated export prices and lower interest rates are providing support to the domestic recovery.

That said, rising global policy uncertainty and intensifying trade frictions are likely to weigh on world growth, potentially slowing New Zealand's rebound and exerting additional downward pressure on inflation. The economic outlook therefore remains highly uncertain.

Incoming data on the pace of New Zealand's recovery, the persistence of inflation, and the impact of tariffs will be crucial for the future path of the OCR. Should medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as projected, the Committee expects to lower the OCR further. (NZD-negative)

Medium-Term Uptrend Intact, but Short-Term Momentum Softens_1

Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that EURNZD remains in a well-defined uptrend, trading above both the MA20 and MA50, which are aligned bullishly. Since May the pair has traced out a clear step-like ascending structure, indicating that buyers continue to dominate.

On shorter time frames (e.g., the 4-hour chart), however, a bearish crossover (death cross) has emerged, signalling fading momentum and posing a challenge to the prevailing upward structure. Short-term traders are advised to adopt a sell-on-rallies stance and remain alert for a potential pullback.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.9493

Target Price: 1.9273

Stop Loss: 1.9670

Deadline: July 25, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.9467/1.9432/1.9412

Resistance: 1.9541/1.9571/1.9589

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Summary:

After approaching the key psychological level of 200.00 on Wednesday, bullish momentum in GBPJPY eased as expected. Although the pair rebounded on Thursday, it failed to fully shake off the technical pressure from the head-and-shoulders top pattern, indicating that downside risks persist in the near term.

SELL GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

198.574

Entry Price

196.450

199.500

207.179 +0.079 +0.04%

92.6

Pips

Loss

196.450

199.506

Exit Price

198.574

Entry Price

199.500

Fundamentals

Despite facing multiple economic challenges, the British pound has demonstrated resilience in recent sessions. During Wednesday's parliamentary questioning, Prime Minister Keir Starmer did not rule out the possibility of introducing a future wealth tax. However, unlike last week, this statement did not trigger market panic or a sharp sell-off in sterling.

Previously, the Prime Minister's inconsistent stance on welfare reform and delayed confirmation of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' position had raised concerns over policy uncertainty, putting downward pressure on the pound. While the political turmoil has somewhat subsided, reports indicate that the UK still faces severe fiscal and growth challenges, limiting the upside potential for sterling.

Sterling Shows Resilience, but Economic Fundamentals Remain a Concern_1

Technical Analysis

During Thursday's Asian session, GBPJPY found some support in the 198.35–198.40 range, attracting dip-buying interest and curbing the modest pullback from the previous day's high. The spot price remains below the 199.00 level and continues to trade within a head-and-shoulders top pattern on the hourly chart, suggesting that short-term downward pressure remains.

From a medium-term perspective, the upward trend over the past two months has followed a steady ascending channel, indicating that the broader bullish structure is still intact. On the daily chart, oscillators remain in positive territory and have not yet entered overbought conditions, further supporting the possibility of continued bullish momentum.

If GBPJPY can decisively break above the current consolidation zone and the upper boundary of the channel — the psychological 200.00 level — it would signal the start of a new upward wave and open the door for a retest of the yearly high.

Conversely, a break below the key support zone of 198.35–198.40 could trigger additional technical selling, potentially pushing the pair lower toward the next major support area at 197.15–197.10.

Overall, the medium-term trend remains bullish, supported by the channel structure. However, short-term technical pressure persists due to the unresolved head-and-shoulders pattern. A successful break above 200.00 would confirm the resumption of the bullish trend, while a drop below 198.35 would raise the risk of a deeper short-term correction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 199.00

Target Price: 196.45

Stop Loss: 199.50

Deadline: July 25, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 198.38/198.11/197.17

Resistance: 199.24/199.48/199.83

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

The Great British Pound (GBP) fundamentals are at a crossroads of "economic recovery + policy easing expectations," while the US dollar (USD) faces dual constraints from "rate cut expectations + improved risk appetite." This dynamic is expected to drive GBP/USD higher.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36073

Entry Price

1.39100

1.35100

1.33274 -0.00038 -0.03%

97.3

Pips

Loss

1.35100

1.35099

Exit Price

1.36073

Entry Price

1.39100

Fundamentals

Recently, the UK economy has shown signs of recovery. The latest data reveals that the UK Services PMI rose sharply to 52.8 in June from 51.3 in May, marking the highest level since August last year, driven by sustained domestic demand and a surge in new business. However, firms remain cautious about hiring due to rising labor costs. The Composite PMI climbed from 50.7 to 52, indicating that the broader private sector continues to expand moderately while manufacturing remains under pressure. With easing price pressures and slower business cost growth, market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in August have increased, especially as inflation has steadily declined from its peak with the May CPI annual rate dropping to 3.4% from 3.5%.

Meanwhile, risk appetite in the US is improving, weighing on the US dollar. The latest Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials support initiating rate cuts later this year, reiterating no urgency for further hikes. This has tempered market expectations for US dollar tightening. Additionally, the US Dollar Index dipped slightly to 97.40 on July 10th. As the US dollar's "safe-haven + yield advantage" weakens, capital is flowing out of dollar-denominated assets and into markets like the UK in search of higher returns and capital appreciation.

Regarding the UK's political and financial situations, the ruling party faces turbulence over welfare reforms and property tax decisions, leading to short-term pressure on the GBP. However, the recently signed UK-US trade deal has bolstered confidence in the UK's medium-to-long-term growth prospects.

Therefore, the UK is at an inflection point of "economic recovery + policy easing expectations," while the US dollar contends with "rate cut expectations + improving risk appetite," creating favorable conditions for GBP/USD upside.

Technical Analysis

Pound Bulls Reignite, Upside Target of 1.3950 in Sight_1

As of the European session today, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3613, gradually rising after climbing over 33 pips from the intraday low of 1.3579. Both technical indicators and price action suggest continued bullish momentum.

Based on the daily chart, GBP/USD recently retraced to the rising trendline connecting previous lows and stabilized with a bullish doji candlestick yesterday, confirming a resumption of upward momentum. The moving averages are also arranged in a bullish formation, reinforcing the upside bias.

Regarding technical indicators, the RSI is in neutral-to-bullish territory, with its curve turning upward again, suggesting a higher likelihood of near-term gains.

On the upside, the first target is the previous high of 1.3788. A breakout above this level could propel GBP/USD toward the 1.3950 resistance zone. The recommended strategy is to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3600

Target price: 1.3910

Stop loss: 1.3510

Valid Until: July 24, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 1.3525/1.3370

Resistance: 1.3788/1.3950

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This zone has repeatedly triggered downside reactions in recent sessions and may again act as a ceiling if bulls fail to break through.

SELL USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

96.940

Entry Price

95.950

97.900

98.880 -0.070 -0.07%

96.0

Pips

Loss

95.950

97.900

Exit Price

96.940

Entry Price

97.900

The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting reaffirm that the central bank remains firmly entrenched in a wait-and-see approach. Fed officials expressed continued caution about the U.S. economic outlook, highlighting persistent uncertainty despite some softening in labor market concerns and a modest easing of inflationary pressures.

However, the minutes were compiled before the renewed wave of tariff threats announced this week. Since then, divergence has grown within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with policymakers split over whether the first rate cut should happen as early as July or be deferred until some time in 2026.

Former President Donald Trump once again lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling for an aggressive 3% rate cut. His comments also shook the commodity markets, pushing copper prices higher after he proposed a 50% tariff on the red metal.

Adding to market unease, the Trump administration unveiled a new list of countries facing sharply increased tariffs if no trade agreements are signed before August 1. These levies—ranging from 20% to 50%—are part of a broader strategy that includes previously postponed reciprocal tariffs, originally delayed in April and again before the July 9 deadline.

Among the newly targeted countries are the Philippines (20%), Moldova (25%), Algeria (30%), Iraq (30%), Libya (30%), Brunei (25%), Sri Lanka (30%), and Brazil (50%). Trump warned that pharmaceutical products, semiconductors, and copper would also face duties near the 50% level, emphasizing that he "could have been even tougher on trade."

This heightened trade uncertainty and lack of policy clarity have left investors and global markets on edge, as the erratic nature of tariff implementation complicates efforts to forecast future trading conditions. Bearish Continuation Possible if USDX Rejection Holds_1

Bearish Continuation Possible if USDX Rejection Holds_1

Technical Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) remains in a well-defined downtrend, but recent price action shows the formation of a short-term bullish retracement. However, this recovery now faces strong resistance near the 97.28 level—an area that coincides with the 100-period moving average on the daily chart. This zone has repeatedly triggered downside reactions in recent sessions and may again act as a ceiling if bulls fail to break through.

Further overhead, the 200-period moving average sits at 98.05, aligning closely with a descending trendline that could serve as an additional resistance barrier should the price push higher.

From a momentum perspective, the RSI is hovering near 65, approaching the overbought threshold. This suggests that bullish momentum may be losing steam, particularly as USDX struggles to reclaim the 97.32 level, which previously acted as support. A confirmed rejection at this zone could signal a bearish continuation, with downside targets around the recent local low of 95.95.

If, however, the index manages to breach these resistance levels decisively, it could challenge the broader bearish trend. But until then, sellers remain in control, and the risk of a deeper pullback remains elevated.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 96.97

Target price: 95.95

Stop loss: 97.90

Validity: Jul 18, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

A deeper correction would likely require a decisive break below that level, potentially accelerating the bearish move.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

109489.4

Entry Price

107500.0

111000.0

92012.0 +2457.2 +2.74%

1510.6

Pips

Loss

107500.0

111035.2

Exit Price

109489.4

Entry Price

111000.0

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has once again made history by surpassing 700,000 BTC under management—an impressive milestone achieved just 18 months after its launch. According to the fund’s official website, IBIT held 698,919 BTC as of July 3. Following net inflows of approximately 1,510 BTC on July 7, it officially crossed the 700K threshold—right after the U.S. Independence Day holiday—according to data from Coinglass.

Launched in January 2024 after receiving landmark regulatory approval, IBIT has since grown into the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF. It is now BlackRock’s third-highest revenue-generating ETF out of the 1,197 funds it manages and is only $9 billion away from becoming the firm’s top performer, as highlighted by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. The fund had previously earned the distinction of being the fastest-growing ETF globally.

Meanwhile, Japan-based Metaplanet continues to execute its bold Bitcoin treasury strategy. The Tokyo-listed hospitality company, which began accumulating BTC in April 2024, has now amassed 15,555 BTC—making it the fifth-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally. CEO Simon Gerovich, in a recent Financial Times interview, stated that Metaplanet is committed to acquiring as much BTC as possible before entering its next phase of growth.

Gerovich described the current moment as a “Bitcoin gold rush” and suggested that the firm could later leverage its BTC holdings as collateral to finance acquisitions of cash-generating businesses. He emphasized the importance of reaching a point of “escape velocity” in Bitcoin accumulation, where competitors would struggle to catch up.

In a similar move, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced a $4.2 billion offering of Series A perpetual preferred shares (STRD) with a 10% yield. The funds raised will be used to expand their Bitcoin reserves, support operational liquidity, and pay dividends on existing preferred shares such as STRK and STRF. The announcement was made during a presentation led by CEO Phong Lee and Saylor himself. Momentum Fades as Bitcoin Struggles to Break Out_1

Momentum Fades as Bitcoin Struggles to Break Out_1

Technical Analysis

BTC/USD lost upward momentum after approaching the 109,700 resistance area for the second time, failing to post a new higher high. This inability to break through a key resistance level increases the likelihood of a short-term bearish correction.

Should Bitcoin close below the 9-period moving average on the 1-hour chart, the market may begin pulling back toward the next local support at 107,400—a zone that has previously acted as a reliable floor. A deeper correction would likely require a decisive break below that level, potentially accelerating the bearish move.

The RSI is currently hovering near 56, sitting slightly above neutral territory. It has struggled to break above the 63 level, suggesting that bullish momentum may be fading. If the RSI continues to stall while price action remains below 109,700, a pullback could become more probable.

However, a decisive break above 109,700 could open the door for a renewed bullish push toward the recent high of 110,500 set on July 3. Until then, price action appears indecisive, and the burden is on the bulls to reassert control.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 109500

Target price: 107500

Stop loss: 111000

Validity: Jul 18, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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