USD/CAD Edges Lower Ahead Fed Rate Decisions Amid Trade Optimism

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

USD/CAD drifts toward 1.3940 as investors await interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve, while markets also focus on US-China trade developments.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.39200

Entry Price

1.37000

1.40000

1.38197 +0.00050 +0.04%

80.0

Pips

Loss

1.37000

1.40000

Exit Price

1.39200

Entry Price

1.40000

The USD/CAD pair edged down toward 1.3910 during Wednesday’s European trading session, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of two of the most closely watched monetary policy announcements this week. Market participants are bracing for 25-basis-point rate cuts from both the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve, which would mark the second consecutive easing move for each central bank. The anticipated decisions have kept trading activity in the Loonie pair muted, as investors look for guidance on the future trajectory of interest rates and broader economic momentum.

Investor sentiment is increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will loosen policy further. Inflationary pressures in the United States, while still present, are being seen as partly transitory, with tariffs contributing temporarily to elevated prices. Simultaneously, labor market conditions are showing signs of deterioration, prompting expectations that the Fed may continue easing to support growth. Traders are carefully evaluating the potential for additional rate cuts later in the year, making Wednesday’s announcement a critical moment for gauging market expectations.

Canada’s labor market data for September offered a mixed picture. The economy added 60,400 jobs, offsetting part of the 65,500 layoffs recorded in August. Despite this positive development, overall labor market trends remain subdued, with the unemployment rate holding at 7.1 percent. Analysts suggest that the Bank of Canada is likely to continue a measured approach to monetary easing, balancing the need to stimulate growth against persistent structural challenges in employment.

Ahead of the Fed’s decision, the US Dollar Index, which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, traded slightly higher at 98.90. The modest uptick in the DXY reflects investor caution as markets await clear signals on the path of interest rates. Adding to the backdrop of uncertainty is the US-China trade dialogue, with attention focused on Thursday’s scheduled meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Positive rhetoric from President Trump, who stated, “Things will work out very well with Xi tomorrow,” has fueled optimism that a constructive trade deal may emerge, potentially influencing short-term currency flows and broader risk sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Technically, USD/CAD has moved lower toward the 1.3940 support level, which coincides with previous intraday targets noted in earlier analyses. The pair remains under short-term bearish pressure, trading below its 50-day exponential moving average, which has intensified downward momentum. At the same time, the relative strength index shows early signs of a positive crossover after reaching oversold levels, suggesting that while losses may continue in the near term, a corrective rebound could be on the horizon.

Price action remains confined within a rising parallel channel that extends from the July lows. The pair recently encountered resistance near 1.4100, indicating early signs of structural fatigue at the upper boundary. Currently, USD/CAD is consolidating between 1.4000 and 1.3900, with bearish momentum gradually building. The relative strength index is displaying divergence through lower highs, signaling the potential for a corrective leg in the near term. Should bearish sentiment persist, the pair could move toward the next major support near 1.3700, while any rebound driven by risk-on sentiment or hawkish surprises could push it back toward the 1.4050–1.4100 range.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3920

STOP LOSS: 1.4000

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The US Dollar strengthened against the Swiss Franc on Wednesday, climbing to session highs near 0.7980 as traders positioned for the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy decision.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.79701

Entry Price

0.80400

0.79500

0.80566 +0.00111 +0.14%

59.5

Pips

Profit

0.79500

0.80296

Exit Price

0.79701

Entry Price

0.80400

The US Dollar extended its gains against a subdued Swiss Franc on Wednesday, buoyed by renewed buying momentum as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s pivotal policy announcement later in the day. The pair climbed to session highs around 0.7979 during European trading hours after rebounding from early lows of 0.7925, effectively erasing losses from the prior two sessions.

Despite the intraday recovery, USD/CHF remains largely confined within its two-week consolidation range, with upside attempts consistently capped below 0.7985. The restrained price action underscores the market’s hesitancy to commit to a clear directional bias before the Fed unveils its latest policy stance — a decision that could reshape expectations for US interest rates and global risk sentiment heading into year-end.

Futures markets have almost entirely priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut, a move that would bring the federal funds rate down to a three-year low between 3.75% and 4.00%. Such a decision would mark a continuation of the Fed’s easing trajectory, aimed at cushioning the US economy against slowing growth and tightening financial conditions.

However, traders are looking beyond the headline cut. The critical question lies in whether Chair Jerome Powell will validate market bets for further easing in December — or temper them with a hawkish tone suggesting the Fed may pause to assess the cumulative effects of prior cuts.

“The real market driver tonight will not be the cut itself — it’s Powell’s tone,” said one FX strategist at a London-based investment bank. “If he signals caution about additional easing, we could see the dollar rally sharply across the board, especially against low-yielders like the Swiss Franc.”

Adding intrigue to the meeting, speculation is mounting that the Fed could also signal an end to its balance sheet reduction program — the so-called quantitative tightening (QT). Such a move would represent a subtle but significant pivot toward a more supportive stance for the banking sector, particularly as signs emerge that credit conditions are deteriorating.

Recent data and commentary from US financial institutions point to tightening lending standards, with smaller banks feeling the squeeze from higher funding costs. A pause in QT would ease some of that pressure, improving liquidity in the system and potentially calming credit markets that have shown signs of strain.

Beyond monetary policy, political developments are adding another layer of complexity to global market sentiment. The US President’s ongoing tour of Asia has injected cautious optimism into the risk environment ahead of a closely watched meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for Thursday.

So far, remarks from Washington have leaned constructive, with the President emphasizing the importance of open dialogue and mutual economic cooperation. However, a more measured tone from Beijing’s Foreign Ministry — urging the US to take “concrete steps” to maintain stable supply chains — briefly tempered enthusiasm, reminding investors that progress remains fragile.

Still, the broader tone in global equities and risk assets has been moderately supportive, providing a tailwind for the dollar as traders unwind defensive Swiss Franc positions.

On the domestic front, Switzerland’s ZEW Economic Expectations survey offered a glimmer of optimism. The index improved sharply to -7.7 in October, up from a deeply pessimistic -46.4 in September. While the rebound suggests sentiment may be stabilizing, the reading remains in negative territory, signaling that confidence in the Swiss economy’s outlook is still fragile.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a cautious tone in recent weeks, signaling that it stands ready to intervene in currency markets if excessive Franc strength threatens to derail its inflation objectives. With the Fed’s decision looming, the SNB’s stance may once again come under scrutiny should volatility pick up in the USD/CHF cross.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the USD/CHF pair has shown resilience, repeatedly defending the key support area near 0.7935–0.7945. This region, previously a resistance-turned-support (RBS) zone, has attracted consistent buying interest, reflecting underlying bullish sentiment despite recent consolidation.

A minor consolidation channel has emerged just beneath the 0.7980 mark, which currently acts as an immediate resistance level. A confirmed breakout above this area — ideally accompanied by a retest and strong volume — could pave the way for a continuation move toward the next resistance zone near 0.8020–0.8040.

Conversely, failure to sustain momentum above 0.7980 could expose the pair to renewed selling pressure, with initial downside support at 0.7940 and 0.7915. A break below these levels could shift sentiment back in favor of the Franc, especially if the Fed surprises with a hawkish tilt.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.7970

STOP LOSS: 0.7950

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8040

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Early this week, gold prices faced renewed pressure. After briefly dipping below the US$4,000 threshold, prices stabilized and rebounded. Having declined over 10% in recent weeks, gold may now present a buying opportunity at lower levels, as the fundamental logic supporting its upward trajectory remains intact.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4017.99

Entry Price

4136.00

3915.00

4211.75 +13.84 +0.33%

2.1

Pips

Profit

3915.00

4018.20

Exit Price

4017.99

Entry Price

4136.00

Fundamentals

The recent sell-off in gold prices aligns with the fundamental logic of profit-taking, coinciding with the announcement of a new framework agreement between China and the U.S. aimed at avoiding a significant escalation of tariffs in November. The prospect of easing trade tensions has reduced demand for defensive assets, encouraging investors to shift toward equities and risk currencies. Optimism surrounding the upcoming summit between Trump and Xi Jinping has also bolstered broader market confidence.

Markets are currently awaiting two major events: Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy meeting and Thursday's Trump - Xi Jinping summit. Among these, the market widely expects the Fed to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut at today's policy meeting, while investors are also closely watching for forward-looking signals Chairman Powell may release (such as whether the Fed will officially announce a pause in balance sheet reduction at this meeting). These events could set the near-term tone for broader markets, including precious metals. Price movements surrounding these events will reveal whether the current pullback will gather further momentum.

So far, both technical and macroeconomic indicators suggest that the correction phase will last longer than initially anticipated. Rather than merely pausing for a brief consolidation before resuming its upward trend, gold may need to spend the remainder of this year establishing a bottom, laying the groundwork for a new wave of gains in 2026.

Signs of Buying Emerge After Sharp Price Correction, while Market Focuses on Fed and U.S.-China Summit_1

Technical Analysis

Regarding gold, the downtrend remains within the corrective structure following the rebound from US$3,267. The price continues to hold above the US$3,944 support cluster (the 38.2% retracement of the US$3,267 to US$4,381 range, located above US$3,955). Should gold rebound from current levels and break above the US$4,161 resistance, it would signal completion of the pullback from US$4,381, potentially paving the way for another test of the all-time high. However, strong resistance may cap gains near prior highs, keeping gold range-bound between US$3,888 and US$4,381.

On the other hand, a decisive break below US$3,888 would trigger a deeper correction toward the 55-day EMA (currently at US$3,818), where stronger demand would emerge to establish a foundation.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3991

Target Price: 4136

Stop Loss: 3915

Valid Until: November 13, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3991, 3967, 3915

Resistance: 4045, 4085, 4123

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Commodity

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Silver, a dual-purpose metal with both industrial and monetary roles, serves as a lower-cost proxy for gold, which continues to draw investor inflows during bull cycles in the metals complex.

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

48.129

Entry Price

55.000

45.000

58.421 +0.104 +0.18%

1.6

Pips

Profit

45.000

48.145

Exit Price

48.129

Entry Price

55.000

Fundamentals

Silver's fundamentals remain robust. The metal has rallied 65% this year, printing an all-time high of $54.47/oz. Analysts have revised their 2025 average-price forecast to $38.45/oz and their 2026 projection to $50/oz. This is attributed to a prolonged supply deficit coupled with surging structural demand from the expansion of solar PV, electric vehicles, and AI-driven data centers.

Senior officials from the U.S. and China announced in Malaysia over the weekend that the two sides have reached a framework agreement on tariffs and other major issues. This lays the groundwork for President Trump and President Xi Jinping to finalize the deal when they meet in South Korea later this week.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods "is effectively off the table." Bessent added that China has agreed to purchase a "substantial" volume of soybeans and to "pause for one year" its rare-earth export controls pending a fresh review.

With Fed easing at the October FOMC now nearly fully priced, silver's downside looks increasingly capped. The Bloomberg consensus expects a 25 bp cut on Wednesday that would drop the fed-funds target to 3.75-4.00%. The CME FedWatch Tool assigns an around 97% probability to a October cut and a 95% chance of a follow-up reduction in December.

Adding to the cautious tone is the ongoing U.S. government-funding impasse, which has intensified the policy debate inside the FOMC. Officials must weigh an immediate insurance cut to shore up a softening labor market against the risk of inflation that remains above the 2% objective.

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands on silver are pinching inward and the moving averages have flattened. After rejecting the upper band, price stabilized at the EMA50 and is now printing a morning-star reversal. MACD's fast and slow lines are still pulling back toward the zero axis—room remains for further consolidation. RSI at 50 reflects a wait-and-see mood. Overhead supply sits at the round-number 50 level and the upper band near 53.5.

On the weekly chart, Bands are widening upward and MAs are fanning out—the primary bull trend is intact. Price has returned to the EMA12 rising trend-line and is re-accelerating. RSI at 69 shows strong bullish momentum.

Therefore, traders are recommended to take long positions at lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 48.13

Target Price: 55

Stop Loss: 45

Support: 45/40/37.7

Resistance: 50/52/55

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Commodity

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The Fed's policy stance is undoubtedly the most critical guide at present. The dovish or hawkish tilt in Powell's remarks will directly determine the direction of the US Dollar Index and gold's short-term fate.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3974.66

Entry Price

4300.00

3750.00

4211.75 +13.84 +0.33%

215.7

Pips

Profit

3750.00

3996.23

Exit Price

3974.66

Entry Price

4300.00

Fundamentals

Amid easing U.S.–China trade tensions and a sustained global equity rally, further upside in gold appears constrained. Ahead of a pivotal meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump intends to reduce China-related fentanyl tariffs and reiterates, "I think we're going to have a really terrific meeting with President Xi." Near-term gold direction will likely hinge on the Fed's policy statement and the outcome of the Trump and Xi talks.

Markets broadly expect the Fed to deliver another 25 bp cut in the federal-funds target after September's "risk-management" easing. With the rate decision fully priced, focus will shift to the vote split and any forward-guidance cues from Chair Jerome Powell.

The market expects a 9-to-3 split on the vote. Governor Stephen Millard is seen again dissenting in favor of a 50 bp cut, while Governors Goolsbee and Musalem are likely to prefer keeping the policy rate unchanged.

An unexpectedly dovish 10-2 or 11-1 tally for a 25 bp cut, coupled with Chair Powell highlighting mounting downside risks to the labor market, would be interpreted as a distinctly dovish tilt. What's more, it could re-ignite a record run in non-yielding gold.

Conversely, a hawkish vote constellation would dilute expectations for further easing—especially at the December meeting—and likely accelerate a corrective selloff in gold prices.

In short, with U.S. government data scarce because of the shutdown, the FOMC statement and Chair Powell's press conference will be scrutinised for the Fed's updated outlook on inflation, growth and the labour market. Ahead of Thursday's Trump–Xi meeting, however, markets are likely to remain circumspect.

Traders appear to be on the sidelines, opting to wait for today's high-profile Fed decision before taking fresh directional exposure in the non-interest-bearing precious metal. A concurrent wave of dollar buying is meanwhile weighing on gold. In addition, any signs of détente in the Sino-U.S. trade dispute could cap demand for the safe-haven asset. That said, expectations of a dovish Fed tilt should limit significant USD appreciation and provide a soft floor for XAUUSD. Investors are now laser-focused on any hints about the future rate-cut trajectory. The resulting path of the dollar will be pivotal for near-term price action and will dictate the next catalyst for the gold.

Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, after breaking below the round-number support, gold found bids at both the psychological level and EMA200, then snapped back sharply. The MACD has printed a bullish crossover. If price can reclaim the EMA12, odds favor a move toward the Bollinger mid-band at 4,040 or even the EMA-50 around 4,070. RSI at 41, indicating that the short-term sentiment remains cautious.

On the 15-minute view, MACD has flashed a golden-cross. The fast and slow lines have twice pulled back to the zero line, which is a buy signal. RSI at 61 with rising lows indicates the market has shifted into bullish territory, targeting the EMA200 at 3,987 and the 4,000 figure.

In summary, traders are recommended to take long positions at lows.

Bottom Rebound! Does Gold's New Wave of Rally Begin?_1

Bottom Rebound! Does Gold's New Wave of Rally Begin?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3975

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 3750

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

On 29/10/2025 (GMT+7), CAD/JPY is holding the 109.1–109.6 band as the US Dollar Index lingers below 99 and crude oil steadies around $60. A recently easier Bank of Canada versus a still-gradual Bank of Japan keeps rate-differential support intact for the cross...

BUY CADJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

109.121

Entry Price

109.950

108.880

112.556 +0.135 +0.12%

82.9

Pips

Profit

108.880

109.951

Exit Price

109.121

Entry Price

109.950

Overview

Spot CAD/JPY is tracking near 109.2–109.4 in Asia after a tight overnight range, with today’s high/low on public dashboards roughly 109.56/109.07. The macro mix is moderately supportive for CAD: oil has based around $60 even as medium-term forecasts eased after OPEC+ supply decisions, and BoC policy is already in an accommodative gear after last month’s cut to 2.50%, limiting additional CAD downside from policy surprise.

On the JPY side, guidance into this week’s BoJ has leaned toward delaying any further hike until December, keeping normalization gradual and capping yen strength unless the Bank surprises. With DXY hovering in the high-98s to ~99.0, cross-winds are calm enough for CAD/JPY to respect intraday supports while oil and carry provide a floor.

Market sentiment

Positioning is cautiously risk-on. A sub-99 DXY reduces broad safe-haven demand for JPY, while oil’s stickiness near $60 helps CAD avoid the sharp beta drag seen during this month’s earlier energy slip. Street chatter around BoJ “gradualism” and the prospect of a hike later in the year encourages traders to sell JPY strength into data rather than chase it pre-meeting, whereas the BoC’s easing bias is already well priced after September’s cut. In this setup, CAD/JPY tends to buy dips unless global risk abruptly deteriorates or oil loses the $58–60 shelf.

Technical analysis

CAD/JPY firms as oil stabilizes near $60_1

The intraday structure is constructive. Price is oscillating just above the Bollinger mid-line after rejecting the lower band near 109.10; repeated holds of the 20-period mean favor continuation toward the upper band in the 109.7–109.9 pocket. On Ichimoku, price is rotating on or above the Kumo, with the cloud top and Kijun clustering in the 109.15–109.25 area, forming a tight buy zone; Tenkan is attempting to stay on top, consistent with a shallow-pullback uptrend. Stoch (5/3/3) is rebuilding from mid-range; a clean %K re-cross above %D from the 40–50 zone on a minor dip would typically precede another upper-band test. Intraday references show today’s range 109.07–109.56, aligning with this buy-the-dip framework.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 109.12

TP: 109.95

SL: 108.88

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

On 29/10/2025 (GMT+7), USD/JPY is holding the high-151s to low-152s as the US Dollar Index fluctuates just under 99.0 and reports suggest the BoJ may delay any further rate hike at Thursday’s meeting...

BUY USDJPY

EXP

EXPIRED

151.700

Entry Price

152.800

151.200

155.549 +0.204 +0.13%

Pips

EXPIRED

151.200

154.107

Exit Price

151.700

Entry Price

152.800

Overview

During Asia trade, spot has been quoted around 151.6–152.2 after Tuesday’s 152.8–153.0 rejection, with real-time dashboards marking today’s range roughly 151.54–152.20.

The macro mix is constructive but not runaway bullish: DXY is hovering in the high-98s to ~99.0, soft enough to cap dollar upside but not weak enough to derail USD/JPY’s carry support; the 10-year US Treasury yield is oscillating near the 4.0% handle after recent oil-led disinflation chatter pushed term premia lower; and into the BoJ, reliable press guidance points to a slower normalization track, which tempers yen bids unless the Bank surprises with a hawkish tilt.

This combination leaves the pair biased higher on dips as long as DXY doesn’t break higher and the BoJ message stays gradual.

Market sentiment

Cross-asset risk is calm rather than euphoric, with VIX mid-teens and no broad flight-to-quality that would empower the yen. Positioning rhetoric from macro desks has shifted toward “tactical buy-the-dip” in USD/JPY into the meeting given the still-wide rate differentials and the lack of a decisive dollar breakout; that stance is buttressed by the pattern of shallow pullbacks that hold above the prior day’s mid-range. Put differently, the burden of proof rests with a BoJ surprise or a DXY break back above ~99.1 to flip the bias.

Technical analysis

USD/JPY grinds higher as DXY stays sub-99 and BoJ signals gradualism_1

Price is spending more time above the Bollinger mid-line than below, and the last two tests of the 20-period mean attracted responsive bids, consistent with a continuation bias toward the upper band in the 152.1–152.3 pocket. On Ichimoku, spot rotates on or just above the cloud, with Tenkan either at or fractionally above Kijun on recoveries; repeated defenses of the Kumo top in the 151.5x–151.7x zone have framed a rising intraday base.

Stochastic (5/3/3) is cycling out of mid-range; a clean %K > %D re-cross from the 40–50 area on a shallow dip typically precedes an upper-band extension. Immediate resistance is 152.30–152.50; sustained acceptance above that zone reopens 153.20/30, the area that capped earlier this week on many feeds.

On the downside, failure to hold the cloud exposes 151.30–151.40, but as long as DXY stays sub-99.1 and US 10-year yields remain near 4%, dips into the mid-151s are likely to be defended. Spot and day-range references are aligned with current public dashboards.