US Dollar Struggles as Eurozone Data Surprises; Focus Turns to US Jobs and Services Figures

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The US Dollar lost steam on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI data pressured the Greenback.

SELL USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

98.800

Entry Price

87.640

102.500

98.880 -0.070 -0.07%

93.0

Pips

Profit

87.640

97.870

Exit Price

98.800

Entry Price

102.500

The US Dollar retreated on Wednesday, giving up part of Tuesday’s gains as investor sentiment turned cautious ahead of key US economic data. The Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of major peers, hovered just below the key 100.00 psychological threshold, with downside pressure re-emerging following an unexpectedly strong revision in Eurozone services sector data.

Traders had initially welcomed Tuesday’s JOLTS Job Openings report, which offered a glimmer of hope that the US labor market remains on firm footing. However, that optimism faded quickly as attention shifted to upcoming releases, including the ADP Employment Report and the ISM Services PMI. The results of these reports are expected to provide deeper insight into the underlying strength of the US economy, particularly amid signs of fatigue in manufacturing and persistent trade policy uncertainty under President Trump.

The Eurozone’s surprise data revision, which pushed May’s Services PMI up to 49.7 from an initial estimate of 48.8, provided a moderate lift to the Euro, which in turn weighed on the US Dollar. Though the revised reading remains below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, it nonetheless suggests the services sector in Europe is proving more resilient than previously thought. This reinforced a mild shift in sentiment that saw the Dollar lose some of its recent appeal as a defensive play.

In the United States, the labor market continues to be a source of stability. Tuesday’s JOLTS report for April showed job openings jumping to 7.39 million, far exceeding forecasts of 7.1 million and up from a revised 7.2 million in March. The report briefly boosted the Dollar, helping the DXY recover some ground following recent weakness driven by disappointing manufacturing figures. However, this positive surprise was countered by a sharp 3.7% monthly decline in factory orders—worse than the expected 3% drop—which underscored the challenges facing the US industrial base. These figures come on the heels of a larger-than-expected contraction in the ISM Manufacturing PMI, highlighting the economic toll of tariffs and global trade disruptions.

Later in the day, the spotlight will turn to the ADP Employment report, which is projected to show a 115,000 increase in private payrolls for May, a notable jump from April’s 62,000. Investors will be watching closely to see whether these numbers confirm the broader narrative of labor market tightness, which has so far helped offset weakness in other areas of the economy. In addition, the ISM Services PMI is expected to show moderate growth, suggesting that the US services sector—responsible for more than two-thirds of GDP—remains relatively healthy.

Political developments are also keeping traders on edge. President Trump’s failure to secure concrete trade deals, despite key deadlines for proposals from major trading partners, has cast a shadow over the market. The lack of clarity on trade policy continues to undermine confidence in the US growth outlook, particularly as tariffs begin to weigh more heavily on business investment and production.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index remains locked in a clear downtrend. The price is drifting near a pivotal level around 99.10 and struggling to sustain a rebound. Resistance is seen near the 99.94 level, with further upside capped at 100.08. Unless the DXY can break decisively above the 102.33 threshold, the prevailing bearish structure is likely to persist. On the downside, the first level of support comes into focus around 98.01. If sellers regain control, deeper targets at 91.83 and even 87.64 remain in play over the medium term.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL DXY

ENTRY PRICE: 98.80

STOP LOSS: 102.50

TAKE PROFIT: 87.64

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The market anticipates the Bank of Canada will hold the policy interest rate steady at 2.75% for the second consecutive meeting today.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36975

Entry Price

1.34700

1.39100

1.38184 +0.00037 +0.03%

40.0

Pips

Loss

1.34700

1.37375

Exit Price

1.36975

Entry Price

1.39100

Fundamentals

The USDCAD traded near its lowest levels since 2023 on Wednesday, approaching the 1.3675 level. Despite a modest recovery on Tuesday, volatility remains subdued, reflecting market caution ahead of today's interest rate decision.

Although Canada's Q1 GDP unexpectedly rose 2.2% annualized, this growth was largely driven by export activity, as U.S. buyers front-ran tariffs on Canadian goods. This one-off boost is unlikely to alter the central bank's dovish stance, given increasing global and domestic uncertainties. Meanwhile, core inflation has rebounded towards the upper bound of the Bank of Canada's 1.00-3.00% target range, supporting a continued pause in rate cuts.

Market expectations for further rate cuts later this year remain firm. A Reuters poll indicates that 75% (17 of 23) of economists anticipate at least two rate cuts in 2025, with two economists projecting as many as four cuts.

Given elevated trade uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs, the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain a flexible tone in its communications. While rates were held steady today, policymakers are expected to preserve optionality for future rate adjustments, contingent on trade developments.

In the current market context, the Bank of Canada's decision today may not be the primary driver of the USDCAD movements. Instead, market direction will likely be heavily influenced by sentiment surrounding U.S. trade policy.

Focus Turns to Bank of Canada Rate Resolution as Markets Maintain Their Dovish Stance_1

Technical Analysis

Today's market attention centers on the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. Despite divided market expectations regarding an imminent rate cut, our base case anticipates a hold. Uncertainty persists, given weak economic data and global trade headwinds.

Technically, a sustained rejection at the 1.3860 resistance level in the USDCAD suggests further downside potential, targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.4414 to 1.3749 range, specifically 1.3603. This level may offer some support, halting the decline and initiating a rebound, representing an adjustment to the five-wave decline from the 1.4791 high. A break below this level targets the ultimate objective at 1.3470.

On the upside, a decisive breach of the 1.3860 resistance would indicate a broader correction or consolidation.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.3760

Target Price: 1.3470

Stop Loss: 1.3910

Valid Until: June 19, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3677, 1.3647, 1.3542

Resistance: 1.3743, 1.3750, 1.3862

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The UK's May Composite PMI saw a modest expansion, rebounding due to easing tariff concerns. Japan's final Composite PMI registered at 50.2, indicating a weakening growth momentum. The GBPJPY's decline remained contained, attracting buying interest for a second consecutive day.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

194.349

Entry Price

198.560

190.600

207.066 -0.034 -0.02%

69.3

Pips

Profit

190.600

195.042

Exit Price

194.349

Entry Price

198.560

Fundamentals

The UK services sector saw a modest rebound in May, with the final PMI Services Index reaching 50.9, up from a 27-month low of 49.0 in April. The Composite PMI also expanded slightly, rising to 50.3 from 48.5.

MARKET WATCH: This recovery was supported by easing concerns over U.S. tariffs, stronger global markets, and improved client confidence. Business confidence for the year ahead climbed to a seven-month high, driven by investment plans and improved sales expectations.

However, the underlying employment market remains weak. Employment in the sector has declined for eight consecutive months, the longest non-COVID-related downturn since the global financial crisis.

Encouragingly, input cost inflation eased from its April peak, while competitive pricing pressures led to the smallest increase in service charges since October.

Japan's private sector exhibited weakness in May, with the final services PMI declining to 51.0 from April's 52.4; the composite PMI fell to 50.2 from 51.2. The data indicates marginal overall economic expansion, a slowdown in services sector growth, and a slight deterioration in manufacturing output.

MARKET WATCH: The growth in new orders "has nearly stalled" due to the slowest services sales growth in six months and persistent declines in factory demand. This deceleration suggests that a near-term rebound in Japan's private sector may be challenging.

Potential concerns are linked to external and structural factors, including an uncertain global demand outlook, persistent labor shortages, and escalating cost pressures.

Economic Divergence between the UK and Japan Favors Its Alternating Upward Movements_1

Technical Analysis

The GBPJPY extended its robust rebound from the 192.75-193.95 range on Wednesday, maintaining positive momentum for a second consecutive day during the Asian session. This bullish sentiment propelled spot prices to fresh intraday highs during the European session, with bulls now eyeing a sustained break above the 196.00 psychological level to initiate further long positions.

From a technical perspective, the GBPJPY's intraday bias remains neutral. Further upside potential is anticipated as long as the 191.86 support level holds. A firm break above 196.38 would signal a resumption of the broader uptrend from 184.35. Conversely, a breach and sustained trading below 191.86 would suggest a near-term reversal, shifting the bias to the downside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 194.30

Target Price: 198.56

Stop Loss: 190.60

Valid Until: June 19, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 194.31, 193.73, 192.72

Resistance: 195.98, 196.30, 196.51

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/CAD trades in a narrow range near its lowest levels since October 2024 as investors brace for the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.37000

Entry Price

1.36000

1.37600

1.38184 +0.00037 +0.03%

45.2

Pips

Profit

1.36000

1.36548

Exit Price

1.37000

Entry Price

1.37600

The USD/CAD pair is treading water near the 1.3715–1.3720 zone as the North American session looms, marking a continued phase of consolidation that reflects traders’ reluctance to place significant directional bets ahead of a key event. The Canadian Dollar has remained steady, holding recent gains after the pair touched its lowest level since October 2024 earlier this week. With the Bank of Canada (BoC) set to announce its latest policy decision today, market participants appear content to remain on the sidelines until they receive more clarity on the path ahead for Canadian monetary policy.

While the BoC is broadly anticipated to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, the real market-moving potential lies in the accompanying policy statement and the remarks from Governor Tiff Macklem during the post-meeting press conference. The BoC finds itself navigating a delicate balancing act. On one hand, inflationary pressures in Canada have eased, with recent data showing moderation across both headline and core readings. On the other, signs of economic softness — particularly in consumer spending and business investment — have intensified expectations that a pivot toward rate cuts is not too far off.

A dovish tone from the central bank could open the door for further Canadian Dollar weakness, offering a window for a short-term rebound in USD/CAD. However, should policymakers strike a more balanced or cautious tone — emphasizing data dependency and a need for patience — the Loonie could retain its strength and drive the currency pair even lower.

Complicating the picture further is the parallel narrative developing in the United States, where the Federal Reserve’s future rate trajectory continues to dominate FX sentiment. Although the Fed has kept a tight lid on rate-cut speculation in public commentary, financial markets are becoming increasingly confident that a series of rate reductions will materialize in 2025. This growing conviction has applied sustained downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar, particularly against currencies with more hawkish or neutral central banks.

Today’s U.S. economic calendar offers two key data points — the ADP employment report and the ISM Services PMI — both of which could shape short-term direction for the greenback. A disappointing readout on private-sector jobs or signs of cooling services-sector activity would reinforce expectations for Fed policy easing, potentially undermining USD strength further. Conversely, a surprise on the upside may provide a fleeting reprieve, though the broader downtrend in dollar sentiment suggests any rallies are likely to be capped.

Another structural headwind facing the U.S. Dollar stems from mounting concerns about America’s deteriorating fiscal position. The Congressional Budget Office has flagged persistent deficits and rising debt-servicing costs as long-term risks. While fiscal issues rarely move markets on a day-to-day basis, the sheer scale of the imbalance is beginning to cast a shadow over the dollar’s long-term appeal. These fiscal anxieties, coupled with softer economic data and dovish Fed expectations, form a potent mix that keeps the U.S. Dollar on the defensive.

In Canada, the commodity backdrop also plays a role. The Canadian Dollar, closely tied to crude oil due to the country’s status as a major exporter, has seen limited downside pressure as oil prices retreat modestly. Brent and WTI benchmarks slipped in recent sessions, driven by renewed global demand concerns and the uncertain outlook for China’s post-COVID recovery. However, the weakness in oil has not been dramatic enough to trigger a strong CAD selloff, suggesting that traders are prioritizing monetary policy signals over commodity flows for now.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the USD/CAD chart paints a clearly bearish picture. The pair has broken down from a previously rising channel, confirming a shift in structure. Price action remains decisively below the 50-day exponential moving average, a key indicator that suggests bearish momentum is gaining traction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also turned south, having recently exited overbought territory without triggering a meaningful bounce — a classic sign of trend continuation rather than reversal. Price appears to be gravitating toward the 1.3690 region, a key support level that has now been breached intraday.

Should this level fail to hold on a daily closing basis, the pair would likely drift toward deeper downside targets in the 1.3660–1.3600 area, zones that were previously flagged by bearish chart formations.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3700

STOP LOSS: 1.3900

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

OPEC+ will increase production in July, and the market supply pressure will continue to rise. Meanwhile, the demand side has been hit hard by both tariffs and the industrial sector, with the demand for oil plummeting.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

63.039

Entry Price

51.500

64.800

59.405 -0.404 -0.68%

176.1

Pips

Loss

51.500

64.801

Exit Price

63.039

Entry Price

64.800

Fundamentals

Recently, the policy shift of OPEC+ has triggered a structural transformation in the crude oil market. At the latest meeting, OPEC+ announced that it would increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, marking Saudi Arabia's clear shift to the "market share priority" strategy. In contrast, the previous proposal by Russia to suspend production increases was directly rejected. Although the implementation rate of the first two rounds of production increases was less than 20%, the idle production capacity of about 800,000 barrels per day of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will be released this time. In addition, combined with the capacity cheating of countries such as Kazakhstan, Citibank expects the actual increase in July to be 386,000 barrels per day. This has led to an expansion of the global crude oil supply surplus to 2.2 million barrels per day. Citibank warns that if OPEC+ maintains the current path, WTI may fall to $45 by the end of the year.

More critically, the market's expectation of continued production increases in August has risen to 65%. Morgan Stanley pointed out that there are almost no signs of a slowdown in the production increase rhythm, while Goldman Sachs, although believing that August may be a "policy inflection point", admits that the risk of continued production increases still exists.

In addition, the demand side is facing a double blow of "tariffs + industry". The Trump administration has doubled the steel tariff to 50%, directly pushing up manufacturing costs. US factory orders in May have hit the largest decline since 2020, and the manufacturing PMI has shrunk for four consecutive months to 48.5, with the refinery profit compression severely curbing the demand for crude oil processing. At the same time, the demand engine in Asia has clearly stalled: China's gasoline and diesel sales in April plummeted by 7% and 15% month-on-month respectively, and the port crude oil turnover has stagnated. Moreover, India has launched industrial power rationing due to extreme heat, resulting in a sharp drop in industrial oil demand, and the Asian crude oil premium has fallen to a three-year low.

Technical Analysis

OPEC+ Production Increase, a "Nuclear Bomb" Breaks through the $60 Barrier, Triple Iron Tops Restrict Rebound _1

The daily chart suggests that WTI is running in a textbook-style downward channel. At present, there are triple pressures above the current price: $63.13(MA60), $64.01 (the high on May 21st), and $64.30 (the weekly neckline). These three positions form a pressure resonance, adding restrictions to WTI in the short term.

At present, if the price closes below the MA60 today, it will further increase the possibility of a decline. The first target of the decline will be the support level of $55.00. If this level is breached, WTI may depreciate to $50.00.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 63.00

Target price: 51.50

Stop loss: 64.80

Valid Until: June 18, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 59.39/55.00

Resistance: 63.13/64.01

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

This level aligns with a key resistance zone that has historically acted as a turning point in price action.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.82470

Entry Price

0.81930

0.82700

0.80391 -0.00064 -0.08%

54.0

Pips

Profit

0.81930

Exit Price

0.82470

Entry Price

0.82700

The latest inflation data from Switzerland revealed a slight year-over-year decline in consumer prices for May, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling by 0.1%, compared to a flat reading in April, as reported by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. The result matched market expectations, reinforcing ongoing concerns over subdued inflation dynamics in the region.

On a monthly basis, CPI edged up by 0.1% in May, in line with forecasts, following a stagnant reading the previous month. The report attributed this modest increase to several factors, including rising prices for housing rents and international package holidays. Additionally, fresh fruits and vegetables saw price gains. However, these upward pressures were partially offset by declines in air transportation, supplemental lodging services, and heating oil.

Investors continue to monitor the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) policy outlook closely, with strong market expectations pointing to a potential rate cut to zero at the June policy meeting. The risk of deflation remains a significant concern, especially given that headline inflation remained flat on a yearly basis in April, while core inflation declined to 0.6% from 0.9%. Such a low inflation environment gives the SNB more leeway to pursue accommodative measures.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated a cautious tone aligned with broader Federal Reserve messaging. While he acknowledged that U.S. economic indicators remain relatively solid, he emphasized the uncertainty created by President Trump’s increasingly aggressive tariff policies. Goolsbee noted that the Fed is beginning to account for potential economic consequences stemming from sweeping trade restrictions.

Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook offered a similarly wary perspective, underscoring that, despite current economic stability, trade-related risks continue to pose a threat to long-term growth.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for May added to these concerns, as the headline figure slipped slightly to 48.5 from April’s 48.7—marking the third consecutive month of contraction. While some sub-indices showed mild improvements, including New Orders at 47.6 (up from 47.2) and Employment at 46.8 (up from 46.5), the Import Index dropped sharply to 39.9, highlighting the impact of weaker trade flows and tariff-driven headwinds.

Market focus now shifts to upcoming U.S. labor data, starting with Tuesday’s JOLTS report, which is expected to show around 7.1 million job openings in April—just under the 7.19 million figure from March. These results will set the tone for Wednesday’s ADP employment numbers and Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. Strong labor figures would be necessary to counteract concerns raised by weakening manufacturing performance and help the dollar maintain upward traction. Bearish Momentum Could Regain Control for a Pullback_1

Bearish Momentum Could Regain Control for a Pullback_1

Technical Analisys

USD/CHF has recently staged a short-term rally, climbing from the previous session’s local low of 0.8156 to a high of 0.8247. This level aligns with a key resistance zone that has historically acted as a turning point in price action. Given its past significance, this area could once again attract bearish pressure if it continues to act as a barrier to further gains.

The RSI indicator has surged to 75, a level last observed during the May 28 high near 0.8348. This move creates a notable divergence between price and momentum: while price action has not reached previous highs, the RSI has climbed more aggressively. This divergence could be an early signal of waning bullish momentum and a potential trend reversal, with downside targets potentially extending toward the lower boundary of the current trend channel.

However, should USD/CHF break convincingly above the resistance zone, it would invalidate the divergence signal and open the door for further upside. Until then, the risk of a corrective pullback remains on the table, especially as technical exhaustion begins to emerge.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8247

Target price: 0.8193

Stop loss: 0.8270

Validity: Jun 13, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This shift from resistance to support is often viewed as a bullish signal, and it could provide a platform for buyers to re-enter the market.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.13752

Entry Price

1.14200

1.13350

1.16519 +0.00093 +0.08%

44.8

Pips

Profit

1.13350

1.14200

Exit Price

1.13752

Entry Price

1.14200

Inflationary pressures in the Eurozone appear to be cooling faster than expected, potentially granting the European Central Bank (ECB) more room to maneuver on the monetary front. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed no monthly change in headline inflation, while the annual rate fell below 2% for the first time in eight months, down from April’s 2.2%.

Core CPI also remained flat month-over-month, with the yearly figure easing to 2.3%—a sharper-than-anticipated decline from the previous 2.7%, and better than the forecasted dip to 2.5%. These figures will likely be welcomed by the ECB ahead of Thursday’s policy meeting, where a widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut would mark the eighth consecutive reduction.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to maintain a neutral tone, reiterating that future policy decisions will remain data-dependent. However, with market participants already pricing in at least one more cut by year-end, expectations of continued easing could weigh on the euro in the near term.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee echoed a cautious stance aligned with broader Federal Reserve sentiment. While he acknowledged current economic conditions look relatively healthy, he flagged tariff-related uncertainty stemming from President Trump’s aggressive trade stance as a potential headwind. Goolsbee noted that the Fed is beginning to factor in possible economic fallout from broad-based tariff increases.

Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook struck a similar tone, emphasizing that although the U.S. economy appears stable for now, trade policies remain one of the most significant threats to sustained economic health.

Tuesday’s ISM manufacturing data reinforced concerns over softening momentum, with the headline index dipping slightly to 48.5 in May, from 48.7 in April. This marked the third consecutive month of contraction. Sub-indexes were generally weak but offered some silver linings: New Orders rose slightly to 47.6 from 47.2, while the Employment index ticked up to 46.8 from 46.5. However, the Import index plunged more than seven points to 39.9, signaling ongoing strain on trade flows, exacerbated by tariff headwinds and recent soft trade data.

All eyes now turn to U.S. labor market releases, starting with JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, expected to show a relatively stable demand with 7.1 million openings in April—only slightly below March’s 7.19 million. These numbers will frame Wednesday’s ADP employment data and Friday’s pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls report. Strong job figures will be needed to offset concerns raised by weakening manufacturing activity and support the dollar’s recovery. Support and Divergence Could Unlock a Bullish Turn_1

Support and Divergence Could Unlock a Bullish Turn_1

Technical Analisys

EUR/USD has pulled back from its recent local high at 1.1454, retreating toward the 100- and 200-period moving averages. The pair found support around 1.1363—a level that previously acted as resistance. This shift from resistance to support is often viewed as a bullish signal, and it could provide a platform for buyers to re-enter the market, potentially fueling a fresh upward leg.

From a momentum perspective, the RSI has declined to 33, approaching oversold territory. More notably, it has developed a bullish divergence: while the price reached lower lows, the RSI has not followed suit, suggesting that downward momentum may be fading. If this support level holds, the pair could initiate a recovery targeting the 1.1418 zone, where further resistance might come into play.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1375

Target price: 1.1420

Stop loss: 1.1335

Validity: Jun 13, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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