During Tuesday's New York session, the USDJPY experienced a significant surge, exceeding 0.86% in a single day. This rally continued into Wednesday's early trading, with the USDJPY testing the 149.00 level for the first time since April 2025. The impetus for this movement came from the release of the U.S. June CPI data, which exceeded expectations and subsequently drove U.S. Treasury yields higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note increased by 4.5 basis points to 4.483%, thereby bolstering the dollar's rebound.

However, the dollar's gains moderated after testing key resistance levels. Market sentiment turned cautious, with some capital flowing towards safe-haven assets, which supported a short-term rebound in the Japanese yen. Concurrently, investor anticipation of the Bank of Japan maintaining its current interest rate policy in the near term, coupled with uncertainties surrounding potential rate hikes, constrained the yen's upward trajectory.

The Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance, albeit with increased flexibility. Conversely, U.S. interest rates remain elevated above 4.5%. In the absence of more definitive hawkish signals, the USDJPY is fundamentally supported. Notably, the selling pressure on the dollar has diminished since early July, creating opportunities for bullish positions.

From an inflation perspective, rising U.S. goods prices, influenced by tariffs, validate the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, while the continued deceleration in services inflation supports expectations of rate cuts in September and beyond.

Market participants are now focused on the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data to assess whether inflationary pressures are re-emerging. Simultaneously, persistent pressure from U.S. President Trump on the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly his aggressive call for a 300-basis-point rate cut, suggests that even a 25-basis-point reduction may not satisfy his political expectations. This factor casts a shadow over the sustainability of the dollar's rebound.

The USDJPY in the 1D timeframe indicates that the exchange rate maintains short-term upward momentum, yet faces significant resistance at the 200-day SMA of 149.61. A decisive breach of this SMA would bolster bullish sentiment, potentially leading to a test of the psychological level at 150.00.

Conversely, sustained pressure below 149.00 could prompt a retest of the June 23 high at 148.02, which serves as a support level.

Overall, the 149.00 range has been tested as a key demand zone, suggesting a consolidation phase for short-term bulls. A price correction and subsequent accumulation of momentum may be required before further advances.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 149.00

Target Price: 143.93

Stop Loss: 151.50

Valid Until: July 31, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 148.02, 146.30, 145.76

Resistance: 149.32, 149.64, 150.50

During the European session on Wednesday, the GBPUSD maintained its upward trajectory, surpassing the 1.3400 level. The unexpected increase in the UK's June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data diminished expectations of a Bank of England (BOE) interest rate cut, thereby bolstering the pound.

According to data released by the UK's Office for National Statistics on Wednesday, the annual CPI for June 2024 rose to 3.6% from the previous 3.4%, exceeding market forecasts and continuing the upward trend since hitting a three-year low of 1.7% in September of the previous year. In May, the BOE projected that inflation would peak at 3.7% in September of this year, significantly above its 2% target.

Since August 2023, the BOE has implemented four interest rate cuts. A Reuters poll conducted last month indicated that economists generally anticipate two more 25-basis-point rate cuts this year. However, some policymakers have cautioned that skills mismatches in the labor market and other supply-side constraints could drive up wage growth, thereby impeding the decline of inflation towards the target range.

MARKET WATCH: Despite the unexpected resurgence of inflation, the market anticipates the potential for further easing by the BOE at its August meeting. The uptick in June's CPI, primarily driven by rising energy prices, particularly gasoline, indicates persistent cost pressures.

Sticky core prices and inflation deviating from the central bank's target complicate future monetary policy decisions. While this won't immediately halt the rate-cutting cycle, it will undoubtedly prompt the BOE to adopt a more cautious approach to its pace.

Overall, the UK's economic weakness and cooling labor market may continue to support a quarterly rate cut trajectory. However, the risk lies in the possibility of a slowdown, reduced magnitude, or even a pause in the easing cycle if inflation remains persistently elevated.

The GBPUSD has found support and rebounded ahead of the 1.3369 level, with a neutral short-term outlook. The 1.3369 level is anticipated to be a critical support level for price action, representing the low of the retracement from 1.3787, and the overall upward structure remains intact.

A break above the 1.3561 level (former support, now resistance) would likely resume the test of the 1.3787 high. A successful breach of 1.3787 could trigger a larger-scale rally, with the target range set at the 100% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3813 from 1.3138 to 1.3206.

Conversely, a break below the 1.3369 support level would suggest that the retracement trend will continue, potentially testing the support zone between 1.2706 and 1.3206, and the correction space may further expand.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3380

Target Price: 1.3860

Stop Loss: 1.3230

Valid Until: July 31, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3369, 1.3307, 1.3268

Resistance: 1.3417, 1.3469, 1.3495

On the 15th, the U.S. Department of Labor released data indicating that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June increased by 2.7% year-over-year and rose by 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest annual increase since February. The core CPI grew by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year. The expansion in inflation was primarily driven by rising energy prices, which increased by 0.9% month-over-month after a previous decline of 1.0%. In June, both gasoline and fuel price indices shifted from decline to growth, each rising by 1.0% month-over-month. Energy services and electricity prices also continued their upward trend from the previous month. Analyzing specific categories, prices for imported-dependent goods such as furniture, toys, apparel, footwear, and sporting goods all experienced increases, with furniture prices rising by 1% and toy prices by 1.8% month-over-month. The CPI data for June suggest that tariff-induced inflation is beginning to manifest, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates. However, the White House refuted claims that the June CPI data indicated negative impacts from tariffs, stating in a release on the 15th that despite a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, U.S. new vehicle prices have declined. It remains premature to draw definitive conclusions about the impact of tariffs on inflation; upcoming CPI data for July and August will provide further clarity. The Federal Reserve still has policy space to keep interest rates steady, and a rate cut before September remains almost unlikely.

The USDCAD in the 1H timeframe indicates a breakout above the symmetrical triangle pattern, with the candlesticks remaining above the 1-hour Bollinger middle band. Additionally, the Bollinger bands are expanding upward, and the MACD signal lines are positioned above the zero axis. This confluence of bullish signals suggests a prevailing upward trend. The key ascending trendline support is at 1.368; as long as the price remains above this level, consolidation and upward movement are expected. In the 1D timeframe, significant resistance levels are identified at 1.375 and 1.39. A break above 1.39 could initiate a long-term bullish trend, while failure to surpass this level may result in consolidation or a retracement.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.368

Target Price: 1.375

Stop Loss: 1.364

Support: 1.369, 1.366, 1.353

Resistance: 1.375, 1.38, 1.39

Today, silver maintained its high-level consolidation pattern. In the previous trading session (July 15th), spot silver traded within a range of $37.50–$38.38, closing at $37.69, down 1.14% for the day. Since the beginning of the year, silver has surged over 30%, making it one of the best-performing commodities in 2025. Globally, metal ETFs in the Asia-Pacific session continue to attract capital inflows. Although silver ETF holdings saw a slight pullback of 60,000 ounces to 770.09 million ounces over the past two days, they remain at a three-year high, with a net increase of 7.5% year-to-date.

Yesterday, the U.S. released its June CPI data, showing a 0.25% month-on-month increase and a 2.7% year-on-year rise, in line with expectations. This tempered market expectations for rate cuts in 2025. The U.S. dollar index climbed to around 98.60, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.47%. Meanwhile, the July FOMC minutes revealed that most officials support a gradual rate cut in the second half of the year, which bodes well for the medium- to long-term fundamentals of precious metals.

In China, June industrial output grew 6.8% year-on-year, retail sales rose 4.8%, and Q2 GDP expanded by 5.2%, slightly exceeding expectations overall. However, weaker retail figures suggest physical demand still requires monitoring.

Additionally, industrial demand for silver in green energy and electronics continues to rise. Solar photovoltaic components, electric vehicle contacts, and consumer electronics are driving increased silver consumption. Coupled with heightened safe-haven demand due to renewed U.S. trade tensions, these factors are fueling silver's dual appeal as both an industrial and investment asset.

Silver has recently seen strong gains in the daily chart, with the RSI indicating overbought conditions. Short-term profit-taking pressure has intensified, leading to two consecutive days of bearish retracement this week. However, as of the Asian session today, signs of stabilization have emerged on the 4-hour chart.

The broader trend remains bullish despite the two-day pullback, with medium- to long-term momentum still favoring upside movement.

Silver started to stabilize near the support at $37.50 yesterday. Once breached this level, silver is likely to hit the support at $37.10 and $36.70. If it stabilizes at $37.50, resistance levels to watch are $38.11and $39.11. Crossing above them may send silver to test $40.00.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 37.80

Target price: 42.40

Stop loss: 36.10

Valid Until: July 30, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 37.57/37.30/36.70

Resistance: 39.11/40.00/42.72

U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday evening that Scott Bessent remains a potential candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. However, he added that he is currently satisfied with Bessent’s performance as U.S. Treasury Secretary, according to a report by Reuters. The comment added another layer of uncertainty to an already tense monetary policy backdrop.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy continued to build toward the end of the second quarter. Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.7% year-over-year in June, further diverging from the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. Although the figures came in largely in line with market expectations, the persistent nature of inflation has led to a notable shift in market sentiment. Hopes for an imminent rate cut have been largely dismissed, as investors reassess the Fed’s room for maneuver.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins reinforced this cautious outlook on Tuesday, stating that the central bank continues to expect upward inflationary pressure, particularly stemming from the Trump administration’s renewed tariff actions. Her concerns were echoed by the June CPI data, which confirmed that price pressures are once again gaining momentum—just as critics of the tariffs had anticipated.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants have fully priced in a hold in the July FOMC meeting. Moreover, the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped significantly, now standing at just 44%. Despite this, futures markets still reflect expectations for at least two rate cuts in 2025, with over 80% odds for a quarter-point reduction by October.

On the global trade front, President Trump also unveiled a new bilateral trade agreement with Indonesia. Under the deal, Indonesian exports will face a 19% tariff, while U.S. goods will be exempt. Trump emphasized Indonesia’s commitment to purchasing $15 billion in U.S. energy, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft—many of which are 777s. He also signaled that similar trade arrangements are in development.

Turning to Australia, all eyes are on the upcoming labor market report for June, set to be released this Thursday. The employment figures are expected to play a crucial role in shaping expectations for future monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Last week, the RBA surprised markets by keeping its official cash rate unchanged at 3.85%, defying widespread expectations for a 25 basis-point cut. This decision has left traders guessing about the central bank’s next move and whether it will resume its easing cycle later in the year.

Additionally, attention will be on China's second-quarter GDP data and retail sales figures, scheduled for release on Tuesday. Growth is projected to have slowed slightly to 5.2% year-over-year in Q2, from 5.4% in Q1, as ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. continue to weigh on economic performance. On a quarterly basis, GDP is expected to have eased to 1.0% from 1.2%. A stronger-than-expected print could lend short-term support to the Australian dollar, which often mirrors shifts in Chinese economic momentum due to the countries’ close trade relationship.

AUDUSD has once again pulled back toward the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, which currently sits at 0.6514. This level has historically acted as a strong base for bullish reversals, and a similar reaction this time could set the stage for a renewed upward move. The 100-period moving average, located at 0.6539, also looms above as a potential resistance point in the near term.

The price action has also tested the 0.6507 area, which has proven to be a significant liquidity zone. If buying interest emerges again from this region, it could indicate that bullish momentum is returning, especially if price closes back above both moving averages.

The RSI is currently hovering around 36, nearing oversold territory. While there's still room for further downside, especially if the pair breaks below current support, the next key level to monitor would be the previous swing low near 0.6486. That zone will be critical in determining the broader direction of the trend.

On the upside, if bullish momentum resumes, initial resistance could be seen around the 0.6578 area. A move above that level would further validate the case for a sustained recovery in the AUDUSD pair.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.6518

Target price: 0.6578

Stop loss: 0.6480

Validity: Jul 25, 2025 15:00:00

U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday evening that Scott Bessent remains a potential candidate to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. However, Trump added that he is pleased with Bessent’s current role as U.S. Treasury Secretary, according to reports from Reuters.

Meanwhile, inflation data out of the United States continued to climb into the end of Q2, placing further pressure on investors as price pressures grow more persistent. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 2.7% year-over-year in June—edging further away from the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Despite the readings being mostly in line with or slightly above expectations, the market’s hopes for an early interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve have significantly diminished.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins weighed in on the inflation outlook Tuesday, warning that the Fed still expects additional inflationary pressure from the Trump administration’s escalating tariff policies. Her comments were echoed by the same-day CPI release, which confirmed that inflation is once again on the rise—just as critics of the tariffs had forecasted.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets have fully priced in a pause in rate adjustments for the July FOMC meeting. Odds of a September rate cut have also declined sharply following the CPI data, with only a 44% probability now assigned to a rate hold. That said, rate traders are still expecting at least two rate cuts in 2025, with roughly 80% odds for at least one 25-basis-point cut by October.

In international trade developments, President Trump also announced a new bilateral trade deal with Indonesia, under which Indonesian exports will face a 19% tariff, while U.S. exports will be exempt. Trump added that similar deals are in the works and emphasized Indonesia’s commitment to buying $15 billion in U.S. energy, $4.5 billion in agricultural goods, and 50 Boeing aircraft, including many 777s.

The recent letter from Trump to the European Union also raised concerns at the European Central Bank (ECB), which is reportedly preparing to deliver a more dovish outlook next week than initially expected in June. Despite this, traders seem confident that the ECB will keep interest rates on hold in the upcoming policy meeting. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel reaffirmed the need for a “steady hand” on rates, as quoted by Handelsblatt.

EURUSD has pulled back sharply in recent sessions, falling toward the 100-period moving average on the 8-hour chart, currently sitting around the 1.1583 level. This zone aligns closely with the lower boundary of a broader ascending channel and also coincides with a prior resistance area that now appears to be acting as support—a classic technical setup suggesting bullish continuation.

The confluence of the ascending trendline and a major moving average lends added weight to the possibility of a reversal from current levels. This notion is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has dropped to 32, nearing oversold conditions. Notably, this is the lowest RSI reading since the initial bullish move began on May 12 from a price near 1.1066.

The combination of a key support level, trendline validation, and RSI divergence strongly suggests that the recent correction may be running out of steam. If EURUSD begins to show bullish price action in this zone, a rebound could take shape, potentially propelling the pair back toward the recent high at 1.1832, reached on June 30.

In short, with multiple bullish signals converging—including RSI nearing oversold, a retest of a former resistance turned support zone, and alignment with the ascending channel—the EURUSD pair appears poised for a potential upside reversal, contingent on follow-through buying from this technically significant area.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1606

Target price: 1.1832

Stop loss: 1.1480

Validity: Jul 25, 2025 15:00:00