The uncertainty surrounding trade policies, concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, and dovish monetary policy signals continue to exert downward pressure on the US dollar. Today's focus is on Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech, which, amidst ongoing tariff negotiations and political pressures, may offer crucial guidance on the central bank's policy trajectory.

Both the IEA and OPEC have downgraded their forecasts for oil demand growth this year. Meanwhile, OPEC plans to increase production again in August, which may lead to a continued decline in oil prices.

The British pound remains under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England's monetary policy. Recent UK macroeconomic data, including weak GDP growth and slowing inflation, has led investors to reassess expectations for further interest rate hikes. Yesterday, market concerns over the economic impact of dovish remarks from the Fed were raised. Coupled with escalating trade tensions, the British pound saw a slight rebound. Reports suggest that President Trump may impose tariffs of 15% to 20% on EU goods, with an August 1 deadline. However, strong economic data will likely continue to support the US Dollar Index, meaning the GBP/USD pair may remain in a volatile downtrend. Key focus this week will be on UK PMI data, as well as the highly anticipated US Q2 GDP and PCE preliminary readings.

The fact that both moving averages converge at this level increases the likelihood of a bullish rebound.

If the pair reacts lower from this zone once again, a meaningful correction could take shape.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains within a key technical zone. The stock market is being shaped by U.S. economic data, corporate earnings season, and geopolitical developments. Investors are watching closely to see if the current resistance can be broken, though short-term pullback risks persist.