Last week, in his Jackson Hole speech, Powell signaled a dovish shift, emphasizing a reassessment of the monetary policy framework and the inflation-unemployment relationship. This stance was interpreted by the market as a potential pivot by the Federal Reserve towards a more accommodative stance, leading to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar and real yields, thereby directly enhancing gold's relative appeal and triggering concentrated inflows of safe-haven and speculative buying.

Subsequently, this week, significant political developments occurred in the U.S.—specifically, increased intervention by the Trump administration in the Federal Reserve's governance structure, including publicly announcing the removal or dismissal of a Federal Reserve Board member. This has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve; such intertwining of political influence and monetary policy typically heightens risk aversion and skepticism regarding policy credibility, thereby providing short-term support for gold as a systemic safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, Trump's assertive stance on China trade policies and strategic materials such as rare earth elements, coupled with the threat of potentially high tariffs, has heightened global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Although rare earths are classified as industrial metals with limited direct impact on gold supply and demand, such trade restrictions and sanctions rhetoric can elevate market expectations of systemic risk and long-term inflation premiums, thereby indirectly prompting institutional investors and sovereign funds to adopt gold as a hedging asset.

In the 4H timeframe, gold prices have maintained a range around US$3,370 during the European session today. Currently, the price has approached recent highs and is repeatedly testing the resistance zone between US$3,387 and US$3,400. A significant volume breakout followed by a retest could technically open upward extension toward US$3,420 or higher. Conversely, if a temporary stabilization in the U.S. dollar or Treasury yields leads to a pullback, key support levels are at approximately US$3,367 and US$3,350. Breaking below these supports would significantly amplify the short-term correction.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3370.00

Target Price: 3430.00

Stop Loss: 3349.00

Valid Until: September 9, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 3367.31, 3351.25

Resistance: 3386.49, 3400.00

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo believes that tightening in the labor market is driving wage growth, and this trend has now spread from large enterprises to small and medium-sized businesses. Rising wages could further accelerate, forming the basis for another interest rate hike. Japan's working-age population continues to decline, but long-term deflationary expectations have hindered companies from raising prices and wages. The global inflation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic has lifted Japan's economy out of deflation, and wages and labor shortages have become one of the most pressing economic issues. Ueda Kazuo emphasized that unless there is a significant decline in demand, the job market will remain tight and continue to drive wages upward. He pointed out that wages have risen significantly for three consecutive years during spring labor-management negotiations, and labor mobility is also increasing. Young people are seeking higher-paying jobs, forcing companies to raise wages. Demographic changes are exacerbating labor shortages and maintaining upward pressure on wages. Overall, expectations of interest rate hikes will have a positive impact on the yen.

The dollar is facing selling pressure as the independence of the Federal Reserve has been weakened. The Federal Reserve is an autonomous institution whose decisions are not influenced by politics. However, the independence of the Federal Reserve has been weakened after US President Donald Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage allegations. Last week, President Trump demanded her resignation after his political allies accused her of holding mortgages in Michigan and Georgia. According to The Wall Street Journal, Cook responded by saying that she had "no intention of being forced to resign". According to Reuters, Saxo Bank analysts said, "Cook's dismissal and the Fed chair's resignation are seen as a serious attack on the Fed's independence, and they expect interest rates to fall soon. The market is not panicking, but it is readjusting; Cook's resignation makes early interest rate cuts more likely."

From a 4-hour chart perspective, the price of the USD/JPY is oscillating between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands and is currently moving sideways near the middle Bollinger Band. The MACD line and the signal line have returned near the zero axis. The RSI reading is 52, which is near the midpoint, indicating a wait-and-see market sentiment that could shift at any time. If the price breaks above and stabilizes at the middle Bollinger Band, it is likely to rise toward the psychological barrier and previous high levels at 148 and 148.52, respectively. If it fails to break above, it may decline to around 145.8. From a daily chart perspective, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the price oscillating around the middle band. After forming a death cross, the MACD line and the signal line have pulled back near the zero axis. The RSI reading is 51, hovering near the midpoint. Overall, the daily chart suggests a consolidation phase, with a potential directional breakout at any time. Subsequent focus will be on whether the price can hold above the middle Bollinger Band. If it succeeds, an upward breakthrough toward 149.5 is likely. Otherwise, a decline to around 146 may occur. For the strategy, it is recommended to go short at highs in the short term.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 147.7

Target price: 146.2

Stop loss: 149

Support: 145.8, 142.6, 141.6

Resistance: 148.5, 149.6, 151

President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions once again, threatening to impose “additional subsequent tariffs” as well as restrictions on the export of advanced technology and semiconductors. His remarks came in retaliation for the digital services taxes imposed on U.S. tech companies, signaling a potential new front in the trade dispute.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook firmly stated on Tuesday that she has no intention of stepping down, despite President Trump’s announcement that he intends to dismiss her. The clash underscores a deepening conflict between the White House and the central bank at a sensitive moment for monetary policy.

In a separate development, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan highlighted on Monday the need for more effective policy communication while considering key adjustments to the Fed’s strategy. She argued that responding solely to banks’ rising short-term demand for reserves would risk perpetually expanding the Fed’s balance sheet. Instead, she stressed the importance of focusing on banks’ longer-term reserve needs, with the central bank maintaining a balance sheet anchored mainly in long-dated U.S. Treasuries.

On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in September, noting that “downside risks to the labor market are rising” and that the shifting balance of risks may justify recalibrating policy. He also remarked that tariffs could generate a “one-off” effect on inflation, which might fade over time and allow for a less restrictive stance. However, Powell warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, while risks to employment are leaning lower, leaving the Fed in a delicate balancing act.

In the housing sector, U.S. new home sales slipped by 0.6% in July, falling from 656,000 to 652,000 units.

Trade relations also saw a shift at the end of the week. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Ottawa will lift retaliatory tariffs on all U.S. goods covered under the USMCA, effective September 1. The rollback applies to more than $21 billion worth of U.S. exports, including consumer goods such as wine, juice, appliances, and packaged foods, representing a meaningful de-escalation in cross-border tensions.

Carney underscored that Canada “currently has the best trade deal with the U.S.” and emphasized the importance of maintaining that advantage. Nonetheless, tariffs on strategic sectors such as autos, aluminum, and steel will remain in place, as both sides continue discussions to address ongoing trade disputes. He added that “it is possible to reach an agreement with the U.S. on strategic sectors before the official USMCA review window in 2026,” hinting at proactive efforts to resolve potential flashpoints ahead of schedule.

USDCAD has found support around the 1.3810 area, a level reinforced by an ascending trendline as well as the 100-period moving average, currently sitting at 1.3802. This confluence of technical factors could reignite bullish momentum, as the 100-period MA has recently acted as a catalyst for upside moves. If this pattern repeats, fresh buying interest may emerge as price retests this area, with the 200-period MA positioned lower at 1.3756 providing an additional layer of support.

The RSI has slipped just above the 35 level, approaching oversold territory and brushing levels last seen on August 6, though at a much lower price point. This development suggests the potential formation of a bullish divergence, which could pave the way for buyers to regain control. Conversely, a decisive break below the trendline and the 100-period MA would invalidate the bullish setup, with the next key support zone shifting down toward the 200-period MA.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3815

Target price: 1.3930

Stop loss: 1.3760

Validity: Sep 05, 2025 15:00:00

Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States experienced their largest weekly outflows in months last week, as anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech weighed heavily on risk appetite.

According to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs saw a total of $1.17 billion in outflows during the week, marking their second-largest withdrawal since the $2.6 billion negative flow recorded in late February. The group of 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted consecutive daily outflows that extended through Friday, when an additional $23 million exited the funds, logging their sixth straight day of losses.

While Ethereum spot ETFs demonstrated greater resilience, they too closed the week in negative territory, with $237.7 million in net outflows for the week ending August 22. This marked their largest weekly withdrawal since February and the third-largest loss in the funds’ history. Unlike their Bitcoin counterparts, however, Ether ETFs did see two consecutive sessions of strong inflows—$287.6 million on Thursday and $341.1 million on Friday—highlighting ongoing investor interest even amid broader weakness.

On the corporate side, crypto mining firm BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) has emerged as the world’s largest corporate holder of Ether after announcing that its combined cash and digital asset reserves reached $8.82 billion. Of that total, roughly $7.9 billion is allocated to 1,713,899 ETH, according to the company’s latest statement.

The firm’s Ether-focused treasury program, launched in late June, has rapidly accelerated purchases in just a few weeks. Management reaffirmed its ambitious long-term objective of accumulating up to 5% of Ethereum’s total circulating supply—a historic target within corporate treasuries and comparable only to what Strategy has achieved in the Bitcoin space.

Meanwhile, digital asset treasury firm ETHZilla announced on Monday that its board had authorized a $250 million share buyback program, aimed at repurchasing part of the company’s outstanding stock. Alongside the announcement, ETHZilla revealed it had added 7,537 ETH to its reserves, bringing its total holdings above 102,237 ETH at an average purchase price of $3,948.72 per token. At the time of the announcement, Ethereum was trading at $4,667.01, according to market data.

ETHZilla’s CEO, McAndrew Rudisill, emphasized that the company is deploying capital with discipline and speed to reinforce its Ethereum-based treasury strategy. He also highlighted that the stock repurchase plan underscores ETHZilla’s commitment to enhancing shareholder value, particularly at current equity valuations. Furthermore, the company confirmed that the recently acquired Ether will be held long-term and deployed through Electric Capital’s proprietary Electric Asset Protocol to generate yield.

Ethereum recently broke above its long-standing all-time high of $4,878, originally set on November 10, 2021—a record that had remained intact for nearly four years. This bullish breakout could pave the way for further upward momentum, supported by rising demand for ETH and a growing wave of corporate treasury accumulation. The most recent peak was recorded near $4,955 before prices pulled back to $4,333 in the last session, a level that sits close to key local support at $4,378. Historically, this zone has acted as a pivot point where prices have bounced multiple times, raising the possibility that bulls could once again regain control from this area.

On the 3-hour chart, ETH has shown consistent bullish momentum along its ascending trendline, with repeated rebounds whenever price approaches the 200-period moving average, currently sitting at $4,189. This dynamic suggests that any further pullback could trigger renewed buying interest, particularly from institutional players seeking to accumulate ETH at discounted levels. In addition, the RSI is approaching the 30 mark, indicating bearish exhaustion. This technical setup could strengthen the probability of a bullish reversal from current support levels, with a potential retest of the recent highs. A breakout beyond the $4,955 peak would open the door to fresh price discovery and sustained upside momentum.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 4360

Target price: 4900

Stop loss: 4000

Validity: Sep 05, 2025 15:00:00

Crude oil prices extended gains for a fourth straight session on Monday, buoyed by growing expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut and fresh geopolitical risks tied to Russia’s war in Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, climbed 0.5% to trade at $64.05 per barrel, marking its highest level in two weeks and nearly $3 above last week’s trough of $61.40.

The renewed optimism in the oil market comes at a time when traders are recalibrating their outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a more cautious tone than expected, openly acknowledging the downside risks facing the labor market and signaling that the central bank may need to shift to a less restrictive policy stance. That comment has fueled speculation that the Fed could cut rates as early as September—a move that could stimulate economic activity and, by extension, oil demand.

“Oil has found fresh support on the back of Powell’s remarks, as rate cuts in the U.S. would not only ease financing conditions but also provide a tailwind for consumption and industrial activity,” said one analyst. “Markets are positioning for a more growth-friendly environment, which translates into higher fuel demand projections for the second half of the year.”

At the same time, geopolitical risk premiums are resurfacing. U.S. President Donald Trump issued another stern warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress on peace negotiations with Ukraine. Trump threatened to impose additional sanctions should Moscow fail to engage meaningfully in talks. Such a move could further restrict Russia’s oil exports, already under pressure from Western restrictions, tightening global supply at a time when inventories are beginning to draw down.

While the Kremlin has signaled a willingness to explore pathways toward ending the war, it continues to resist Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s proposals for direct negotiations. Instead, Russia has intensified attacks across Ukrainian territory, leaving little room for optimism in the near term. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of additional U.S. and European sanctions targeting Russian energy flows remains high. Markets are therefore pricing in a potential disruption that could tighten an already fragile balance between supply and demand.

From a technical perspective, crude’s price action appears to support further gains. WTI broke above a critical resistance level at $63.75, reinforcing bullish momentum. The commodity is now trading comfortably above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), which often serves as a proxy for medium-term trend direction. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has emerged from overbought conditions, flashing fresh positive signals that leave scope for more upside. The recent rally has confirmed a short-term double bottom pattern, often seen as a bullish reversal signal, pointing toward further stability and potentially higher prices.

Still, risks remain on both sides. If the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts fail to materialize, markets could quickly unwind their optimism, sending oil back below recent support levels. Similarly, a de-escalation in U.S.-Russia tensions could erase the geopolitical premium currently embedded in prices. Meanwhile, persistent concerns about sluggish demand growth in China—the world’s second-largest oil consumer—act as a counterweight to bullish bets.

For now, though, sentiment is tilting to the upside. With the Fed signaling a softer stance, geopolitical risks intensifying, and technical momentum aligning with bulls, crude oil appears to have room to extend its recovery toward higher resistance levels, possibly retesting the $65–$66 zone in the near term.

BUY WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 64.50

STOP LOSS: 62.80

TAKE PROFIT: 67.00

Gold prices edged lower at the start of the week, consolidating after a strong rally that pushed the metal to a two-week high on Friday. The move followed dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which ignited a broad surge across precious metals and risk assets. However, with the U.S. Dollar recovering modestly and Treasury yields ticking higher on Monday, bullion has struggled to extend gains, holding near $3,365 an ounce at the time of writing.

Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole marked his final annual speech at the influential gathering, and his tone was interpreted by markets as a significant step toward policy easing. While acknowledging inflation risks, he stressed the Fed’s need for caution as the U.S. economy adjusts to shifting dynamics.

“The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” Powell said.

His words underscored the delicate balancing act facing policymakers. Inflationary pressures tied to tariffs could prove temporary, but slowing job growth and restrictive borrowing conditions are becoming more pressing concerns. Investors interpreted this as an early acknowledgment that the Fed may need to shift from fighting inflation to supporting growth.

That dovish interpretation triggered a repricing of market expectations. Analysts at Barclays and BNP Paribas now forecast a 25-basis-point cut as soon as September, with some projecting another reduction in December. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders assigning an 87% probability of a September rate cut, compared with about 71% before Powell spoke. In the aftermath, U.S. Treasury yields eased, Wall Street stocks advanced, and the U.S. Dollar retreated, opening the door for Gold’s rally.

Yet Monday’s trading suggests momentum is waning. The U.S. Dollar index staged a modest rebound, while 10-year Treasury yields climbed back above 3.9%, trimming some of bullion’s appeal. Market participants appear cautious, choosing to lock in profits ahead of a heavy week of U.S. data releases, including consumer spending figures and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index.

From a technical perspective, Gold remains underpinned by bullish momentum despite its pause. Prices recently broke above a short-term descending trendline and are trading comfortably above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the broader uptrend. The rebound from $3,312 support has left the metal consolidating in a narrow band around $3,365, with a local triangle pattern taking shape.

The immediate resistance zone sits at $3,375–$3,385, and a clean break above could open the way to the next upside target near $3,410. However, relative strength index (RSI) readings have entered overbought territory, signaling that the market may need to work off some froth before resuming its climb. Should prices falter, initial support lies at $3,345, followed by stronger footing around $3,312.

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3370

STOP LOSS: 3335

TAKE PROFIT: 3410