Tariff Stalemate Triggers Short-term Bearish Outlook

Forex

Summary:

With only 10 days remaining until the U.S. deadline for imposing tariffs on the EU, the transatlantic tariff impasse could escalate to a 50% increase. This development is likely to undermine European export confidence and subsequently exert downward pressure on the euro.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17243

Entry Price

1.14900

1.17900

1.16551 +0.00125 +0.11%

65.7

Pips

Loss

1.14900

1.17902

Exit Price

1.17243

Entry Price

1.17900

Fundamentals

The EURUSD exchange rate is currently under sustained pressure, with the primary bearish fundamental factor being the escalating risks from the U.S.-EU tariff negotiations. With just ten days left until the U.S. deadline for imposing tariffs on the EU (July 9), the Trump administration has threatened to raise tariffs on EU goods across the board to a 50% benchmark (currently 50% for steel and aluminum, 25% for automobiles). Meanwhile, the EU’s proposed countermeasures targeting 95 billion euros of U.S. goods have failed to bridge internal divisions. Germany, facing potential export contractions of 38.5% in its automotive and pharmaceutical sectors, is inclined to compromise, while France remains firmly committed to a “zero-tariff” stance. This policy stalemate is exacerbating market concerns over a potential Eurozone recession and significantly increasing capital outflow pressures.

In the meantime, the structural differences in economic data between the U.S. and Europe are reinforcing the dollar’s advantage. The U.S. core PCE inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.7% in May, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts. Despite signs of weakness in personal consumption expenditures, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s statement that he is “not in a hurry to cut rates” has led to continued liquidity tightening through September. In contrast, the Eurozone is experiencing a third consecutive month of industrial output contraction, compounded by supply chain disruptions from trade diversions. This has intensified market doubts over the sustainability of the ECB’s high-interest-rate policy. Although Goldman Sachs maintains a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar, short-term risk-averse capital is accelerating its flow into the U.S. Treasury market, creating a pincer effect on the euro.

Technical Analysis

From the weekly chart perspective, EURUSD has recently risen to just below the key resistance level of 1.1760, with increased short-term upward pressure. Multiple attempts to break through this resistance level on the 4-hour chart have been unsuccessful, indicating significant pressure and a gradual buildup of bearish momentum in the market. Therefore, the likelihood of a short-term decline is increased.

At present, if EURUSD fails to effectively break through the 1.1760 resistance level during the European trading session, this could be considered a technical sell signal, with the market likely to adjust downward to the psychological support level of 1.1600. If this level is breached, the pair may then test the first weekly support level at 1.1480.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.1720

Target Price: 1.1490

Stop Loss: 1.1790

Valid Until: July 15, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 1.1630/1.1480

Resistance: 1.1760/1.1909

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This shift from support to resistance suggests that a more extended downtrend could be developing. If selling pressure resumes, a retest of the 143.74 low remains likely.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

144.700

Entry Price

143.700

145.500

155.194 -0.151 -0.10%

83.2

Pips

Profit

143.700

143.868

Exit Price

144.700

Entry Price

145.500

The Core PCE data released on Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis served as a fresh catalyst for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE offers critical insights into underlying price pressures and has a direct influence on interest rate expectations.

The headline PCE numbers were broadly in line with forecasts. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.1% in May, matching April’s pace. Year-over-year, the index increased by 2.3%, slightly above April’s 2.2%, yet still within the range expected by analysts.

However, the core figure, which excludes food and energy, showed a slightly stronger increase. It climbed 0.2% month-over-month—above the forecast of 0.1%—while the annual rate ticked up to 2.7%, beating the expected 2.6%. These figures suggest that underlying inflationary pressures remain persistent, which could complicate the Fed’s timing for any future rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025, marking its first decline in three years. Consumer spending and personal income also showed signs of weakness. This combination of slowing growth and increasing political pressure on the Fed has heightened the likelihood of policy easing in the coming months.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears inclined to raise interest rates in response to inflation. However, concerns over financial stability continue to weigh on policymakers, prompting the BoJ to prefer determining the timing of additional hikes independently, rather than reacting solely to mounting inflationary pressures.

Food prices in Japan continue to rise sharply, with annual food inflation reaching 6.4% in June, up from 5.8% in May. However, most other components of the index showed subdued growth, leading to a slight decline in overall inflation. On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted prices remained flat. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, declined to 1.8% year-over-year—below the BoJ’s 2% target. Nonetheless, the BoJ’s preferred gauge, which strips out only fresh food, showed a core inflation rate of 3.1%, identical to the headline figure.

Market expectations surrounding central bank policy have been somewhat less favorable for the yen. Investors continue to reassess the BoJ’s policy stance and remain skeptical about its commitment to further tightening—especially given how rate hikes appear tied to the outcome of U.S.–Japan trade discussions. A Deeper USDJPY Decline May Be Brewing_1

A Deeper USDJPY Decline May Be Brewing_1

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY extended its bearish move after breaking below the 200-period moving average and falling to a local low of 143.74. The pair has since bounced back, retracing to the 200-period MA, now acting as potential resistance around 144.77. This shift from support to resistance suggests that a more extended downtrend could be developing. If selling pressure resumes, a retest of the 143.74 low remains likely.

The 144.93 level is also a notable zone where the price previously reversed after its bullish rally. This level coincides with the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, reinforcing its significance as a potential resistance area. With the RSI still hovering around neutral territory, bears may regain control from this region. Adding to the confluence, the 100-period moving average sits just above, at 146.26, acting as another layer of potential resistance to the upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 144.70

Target price: 143.75

Stop loss: 145.50

Validity: Jul 04, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar extended gains for a fifth straight session on Friday, rallying to 0.6071 against the US Dollar amid broad USD weakness, political interference concerns at the Fed, and improving consumer sentiment in New Zealand.

BUY NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.60600

Entry Price

0.62500

0.59800

0.57857 +0.00103 +0.18%

53.3

Pips

Profit

0.59800

0.61133

Exit Price

0.60600

Entry Price

0.62500

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its impressive rebound on Friday, extending its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) to a fifth consecutive session as investors increasingly favored risk-sensitive assets amid mounting uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy and signs of resilience in New Zealand’s domestic economy.

At the time of writing, NZD/USD is trading around 0.6071 — its highest level in nearly six weeks — and hovering just below year-to-date highs. The move marks a sharp reversal from the pair’s recent lows, as broad-based weakness in the Greenback continues to drive momentum in favor of the Kiwi. The latest rally has been supported by a combination of geopolitical calm, hawkish repricing in New Zealand interest rate markets, and growing investor discomfort over political interference in U.S. monetary policy.

A key driver behind the Greenback’s underperformance has been rising speculation over Federal Reserve independence. U.S. President Donald Trump ramped up criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week, prompting renewed concerns over central bank autonomy just as the monetary authority tries to navigate a complex economic landscape.

Adding to investor unease, a report from The Wall Street Journal on Friday suggested Trump could name a preferred successor to Powell as early as September, with talk of a “shadow chair” — an informal advisor who would influence monetary policy in advance of Powell’s term expiration in May 2026. That prospect has unsettled markets, especially as it coincides with a noticeable shift in rate cut expectations. Traders are now pricing in three interest rate cuts for 2025, up from two earlier this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Reinforcing dovish bets, the latest U.S. inflation data showed that the Fed’s preferred price gauge — the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index — rose 0.2% month-on-month in May, slightly above consensus forecasts of 0.1%. On a yearly basis, core PCE climbed to 2.7% from 2.6%, modestly exceeding expectations but still pointing to sticky price pressures that are slowing the path toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained pinned near a three-year low, trading around 97.10 and showing little sign of recovery amid increased political noise and a risk-on backdrop driven by easing tensions in the Middle East.

In stark contrast to the U.S., domestic data in New Zealand painted a more encouraging picture. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index jumped by nearly 6 points to 98.8 in June — its highest reading in half a year. Confidence improved across all subcomponents, including a notable uptick in households saying now is a good time to purchase big-ticket items, suggesting an easing in financial pessimism as inflation begins to moderate.

This rebound in sentiment comes as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) appears to be nearing the end of its aggressive easing cycle. Having cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) six consecutive times since August 2024 — from 5.5% to the current 3.25% — the central bank is now adopting a more cautious, data-dependent posture.

Governor Christian Hawkesby recently stated that a further cut in July is “not a done deal,” according to commentary from BHH Marketview. The swaps market is echoing that caution, pricing in just a 20% chance of a July cut and anticipating a shallow path of easing from here — with the OCR expected to bottom between 2.75% and 3.00% in the coming year.

This shift in tone has added to the Kiwi’s allure, particularly against the backdrop of a weakening U.S. Dollar and solid local economic underpinnings.

The broader backdrop also supports NZD strength. Market sentiment was buoyed this week by news that a ceasefire agreement had been reached between Iran and Israel after nearly two weeks of heightened hostilities. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that the truce was in effect, lifting global equities and risk-linked currencies like the NZD.

While the durability of the ceasefire remains in question — with Reuters reporting that U.S. strikes only temporarily set back Iran’s nuclear program — the short-term easing in geopolitical tension has prompted investors to rotate out of safe-haven assets like the USD and into higher-yielding currencies and equities.

Technical Analysis

Technically, NZD/USD continues to trade within a bullish structure after recovering sharply from its six-week low earlier in the month. The pair is now preparing to test a key resistance level at 0.6075. A clear break above this zone would likely accelerate the bullish momentum and put the year-to-date highs well within reach.

Despite the strong rally, short-term momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are beginning to flash overbought signals. However, the dominant trend remains upward, underpinned by the formation of a strong minor bullish wave on the lower timeframes. A brief period of consolidation may be required to absorb overbought pressures, but dips are likely to remain shallow unless the macro backdrop shifts significantly.

Initial support sits near the 0.6020 level, followed by the more critical 0.5960 zone, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. As long as NZD/USD holds above these levels, the technical bias favors continued upside.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6060

STOP LOSS: 0.6980

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

Markets appear convinced of imminent rate cuts, continuing to drive equities higher.

BUY US30

Close Time

CLOSED

43728.97

Entry Price

44149.00

42500.00

48024.44 +24.54 +0.05%

4200.3

Pips

Profit

42500.00

44149.44

Exit Price

43728.97

Entry Price

44149.00

Fundamentals

After closing largely flat in the previous session, U.S. stocks rallied strongly throughout Thursday’s trading. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both finished just shy of record closing highs.

Major indices posted robust gains. The Nasdaq climbed 194 points (1.0%) to 20,167. The Dow Jones surged 404 points (0.9%) to 43,386. The S&P 500 advanced 48 points (0.8%) to 6,141.

The market continues to ride the recent bullish wave, with major indices remaining well above their April lows despite lingering uncertainties over tariffs.

The rally has brought both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq back near all-time peaks. The S&P closed just 3 points below its February record, while the Nasdaq once again breached historic levels. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its bullish run, shrugging off negative headlines.

The latest GDP revision served as a key catalyst for the rally. The U.S. Q1 GDP was revised downward to -0.5% from -0.2%, amplifying pressure on the Fed to either cut rates or adopt a more accommodative stance.

Rate Cut Hopes Fuel Risk Appetite, Bulls Eye New Buying Opportunities_1

Technical Analysis

The Dow maintains its strong rebound structure from June, having breached prior resistance highs. Sentiment remains optimistic, though short-term consolidation is likely before further upside.

On the Daily Chart, the breakout above the 43,000–43,200 resistance zone has accelerated the uptrend, with the index now trading near record highs.

Momentum: MACD shows a sustained golden cross with expanding bars, confirming unabated bullish momentum.

RSI approaches overbought territory, hinting at near-term correction risks—yet no clear reversal signals emerge.A break above 43,650 (local high) could open a path to 44,000–44,200 resistance.

An ideal bullish pullback toward 43,000 support would offer favorable long-entry opportunities. However, entering near current levels equates to buying into resistance, presenting suboptimal risk/reward. As a result, wait for dips remains the preferred strategy.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 43000

Target Price: 44149

Stop Loss: 42500

Valid Until: July 12, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 43000/43200/43000

Resistance: 43650/44000/44200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

Gold extended its decline on Friday, sliding below the $3,300 mark, as reports of a trade breakthrough between the U.S. and China lifted risk sentiment and drained demand for safe-haven assets.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3275.00

Entry Price

3175.00

3350.00

4214.66 +16.75 +0.40%

138.6

Pips

Profit

3175.00

3261.14

Exit Price

3275.00

Entry Price

3350.00

Gold prices came under fresh pressure on Friday, tumbling below the key psychological threshold of $3,300 per ounce, as global markets responded to a surprise development: a preliminary trade agreement between the United States and China. The news has sharply undercut safe-haven demand, sending bullion on a steep retreat for the second time this week, in line with a broader rotation into riskier assets.

At the time of writing, spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,282 per ounce, down more than 1.3% on the day, marking one of its most aggressive weekly declines in June. The move comes as investors pivot away from safety trades amid renewed optimism over geopolitical stability, easing trade tensions, and the prospect of looser monetary policy.

The immediate catalyst for gold’s latest slide was the announcement that Washington and Beijing have tentatively agreed to a new framework that would pause further tariff escalation until at least August 12. The development — reportedly spearheaded by high-level diplomatic backchannel efforts — eases concerns that the world’s two largest economies were heading toward another disruptive round of protectionism. Markets responded with enthusiasm: global equity indices rose, U.S. Treasury yields climbed modestly, and risk-sensitive currencies strengthened.

For gold, however, the shift in sentiment has been less forgiving. The yellow metal’s traditional role as a hedge against uncertainty and geopolitical unrest has been diminished in this environment of renewed optimism. Investors are increasingly reallocating capital into equities and credit markets, anticipating a rebound in global growth if trade frictions continue to subside.

While geopolitical headlines dominated the early part of the session, attention is now turning to Friday’s key U.S. macroeconomic data release — the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, the PCE data will be critical in shaping expectations around future rate decisions.

The May core PCE is expected to rise modestly on a year-over-year basis, suggesting continued but contained inflation pressures. However, any meaningful deviation from consensus — particularly an upside surprise — could disrupt the Fed’s projected easing path. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print would reinforce the argument for additional policy accommodation, supporting long-duration assets, including gold.

Adding complexity to the outlook, U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified public pressure on the Fed to cut rates more aggressively, arguing that monetary easing is necessary to maintain economic competitiveness amid lingering global uncertainties. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 72% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, with odds rising for cumulative cuts of 50 basis points or more by the end of the year.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the picture for gold remains fragile in the short term. The metal broke below the key support level of $3,300 during Friday’s intraday session, signaling a potential acceleration of the ongoing bearish correction. A 4-hour chart confirms this bearish trend, showing a pronounced downward channel and price action hovering near $3,282 — well below both the 50-period EMA and previous support zones.

Notably, the RSI indicator continues to flash oversold conditions, suggesting that while momentum remains firmly to the downside, a temporary deceleration in selling pressure could occur in the near term. Still, the dominant pattern is one of weakness, with the next significant support zone seen near $3,244. A sustained break below this level would likely open the door to further downside toward $3,200 and possibly $3,175.

Resistance is now firmly entrenched between $3,300 and $3,320. Unless bulls can reclaim this zone with conviction — potentially driven by a dovish Fed narrative or a geopolitical flare-up — the path of least resistance remains lower.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3275

STOP LOSS: 3350

TAKE PROFIT: 3175

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

The UK economy's marginal improvement, coupled with weakening growth momentum in Canada, may lead to further strengthening of the GBPCAD.

BUY GBPCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.87448

Entry Price

1.96900

1.84300

1.84349 +0.00151 +0.08%

314.8

Pips

Loss

1.84300

Exit Price

1.87448

Entry Price

1.96900

Fundamentals

UK:

The preliminary UK Composite PMI for June rose to 50.7, with the Services PMI increasing to 51.3. Although the Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.7, it still exceeded expectations, indicating a stabilization in overall economic activity and providing fundamental support for the British pound. Despite recent dovish signals from Bank of England Governor Bailey, the market has partially priced in an August rate cut. Furthermore, the UK's May core inflation rate remained at 3.5%, and wage growth slowed only marginally, potentially limiting the scope for policy easing.

Additionally, the UK's Q1 GDP grew by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. The combination of service sector expansion and a slowdown in manufacturing contraction suggests signs of a soft landing, alleviating market concerns about a recession.

Canada:

In April, Canadian manufacturing sales experienced a 2.8% decline, marking the largest monthly decrease since October 2023, and representing the second consecutive month of contraction. This downturn was significantly impacted by U.S.-Canada tariffs, particularly affecting petroleum and automotive exports.

Furthermore, Canada's May core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, exceeding the headline inflation rate of 1.7%. However, with weak economic growth momentum, market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BOC) have increased. The BOC maintained its interest rate at 2.75%, but the economy may have entered a technical recession (with Q2 GDP expected to decline by 1%), and the pressure for policy easing continues to suppress the Canadian dollar.

In summary, the marginal improvement in the UK economy, coupled with weak growth momentum in Canada, suggests that the GBPCAD may continue to strengthen.

Technical Analysis

Policy Divergence and Technical Breakthroughs Converge, Targeting the 1.93 Level_1

In the 1D timeframe, the GBPCAD exhibits a clear upward trend, with the SMA system displaying a bullish alignment, thereby reinforcing the continuation of the overall uptrend.

Currently, the GBPCAD has breached the critical resistance level of 1.8710, as well as the March high of 1.8777, which suggests further upside potential. The next target could be a test of the May 2016 high of 1.9301. A break above this level could see the GBPCAD potentially rise towards the 1.9800 range.

It is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.8730

Target Price: 1.9690

Stop Loss: 1.8430

Valid Until: July 14, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 1.8669, 1.8551

Resistance: 1.8831, 1.9301

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The 200-period moving average is located near a key local resistance zone, which could trigger an acceleration in bullish momentum towards this area as part of a correction.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36455

Entry Price

1.36910

1.36100

1.38201 +0.00054 +0.04%

45.5

Pips

Profit

1.36100

1.36911

Exit Price

1.36455

Entry Price

1.36910

U.S. President Donald Trump recently stated that the United States will hold talks with Iran next week, although he expressed doubts about the need for a diplomatic solution regarding Iran’s nuclear program. According to Bloomberg, Trump cited the damage caused by U.S. bombings of key sites in Iran as a reason for questioning the necessity of a negotiated settlement.

While Trump suggested that the conflict was essentially “over” following the U.S. bombing mission, he also warned that tensions could escalate once again. Traders will be closely monitoring developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran discussions and broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Any sign of further escalation could lead to capital flows into safe-haven assets, particularly benefiting the U.S. Dollar (USD).

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell commented on Wednesday that President Trump’s tariff policies could lead to a temporary increase in prices. However, he emphasized that the risk of causing more persistent inflation is significant enough to warrant caution when considering further interest rate cuts. While the Fed still expects to lower rates later this year, the timing remains uncertain, with policymakers awaiting clarity on the next trade deadlines and the full impact of the tariffs.

On Thursday, mixed economic data from the U.S. added a cautious tone to the market, limiting any potential rally in the U.S. Dollar. Although durable goods orders surged in May, signaling resilience in the manufacturing sector, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, deeper than the previously estimated 0.2% decline, highlighting underlying economic weakness. In another sign of a cooling economy, initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 9,000 to 236,000 for the week ending June 21, falling below expectations.

The CME’s FedWatch Tool currently prices in a 24% chance of a rate cut in July, with a 90% likelihood for September, up from 14% and 65% the week before.

Meanwhile, economic data from Canada released on Tuesday showed that the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.7% year-on-year in May, matching the previous month’s 1.7% rise and in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.6% in May, exceeding the market’s expectation of 0.5%, following a -0.1% decline in April.

The ongoing slump in crude oil prices could weigh on the Canadian Dollar, which is closely tied to commodities. It’s important to note that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the U.S., and lower crude oil prices tend to negatively impact the CAD’s value. An Upside Correction May Develop From Local Support_1

An Upside Correction May Develop From Local Support_1

Technical Analysis

USDCAD has recently experienced a sharp drop, reaching a local low of 1.3618 during the previous session. This level coincided with an RSI reading of 16.92 on the 1-hour chart, signaling an oversold condition. These extreme oversold levels often attract buyers, making it unlikely that the price will continue its decline before a corrective move occurs from this region. Additionally, the price shows significant support at the 1.3634 level, which was swiftly reclaimed after a brief dip below this level. If this support holds, an upward momentum could be on the horizon.

On the flip side, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are situated at 1.3718 and 1.3692, respectively. The 200-period moving average is located near a key local resistance zone, which could trigger an acceleration in bullish momentum towards this area as part of a correction. Furthermore, this zone coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level of the latest bearish impulse, adding further pressure for a correction towards this key resistance area.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3644

Target price: 1.3691

Stop loss: 1.3610

Validity: Jul 04, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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