Sum AB=CD

Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Powell dashes market hopes, gold reaches new all-time high.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3325.40

Entry Price

3450.00

3283.00

4212.49 +14.58 +0.35%

915.1

Pips

Profit

3283.00

3416.91

Exit Price

3325.40

Entry Price

3450.00

Fundamentals

Risk-aversion sentiment resurfaced overnight. Gold prices touched a new all-time high of $3,357 per ounce on Thursday morning before retracing some of the previous day's gains. However, downside remains limited.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on Wednesday, as of February, 14 U.S. states have seen the number of unemployed individuals exceed job openings, the highest level since April 2021. This indicates that the U.S. labor market is becoming increasingly challenging.

Subsequently, Powell's remarks further weighed on the market. He reiterated that the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see stance, considering rate cuts only when the economic situation becomes clearer. Additionally, he highlighted the dilemma facing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with inflation and economic growth targets in conflict. This has been interpreted as raising concerns over stagflation. Moreover, Powell dismissed the possibility of a "Fed Put," emphasizing that market operations are orderly and in line with expectations.

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 1% during the day, approaching a three-year low. As market risk-aversion sentiment surged, gold prices rallied sharply.

Looking ahead, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to hold its monetary policy meeting today. The market widely expects a 25-basis-point rate cut. If the ECB rate cut materializes, it may provide some support to the U.S. dollar, thereby limiting the upside potential for gold prices. Traders should be wary of the risk of a pullback after a sharp rally.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices initiated a new round of gains from the support level of $3,195. Recent concerns over economic recession and trade wars have propelled gold prices to break through the $3,250 resistance level, followed by an accelerated upward movement.

On the 4-hour chart, despite the partial retracement of earlier gains during the European session, prices remain well above the MA200. Additionally, the CD segment of the AB=CD pattern has only traversed half of its projected distance. As part of the symmetrical rise, this upward move is likely to conclude around the $3,470 price zone. (It is worth noting that the rally that began at $2,970 has been relatively brief, and the CD segment is expected to accelerate.)

On the upside, the next major resistance level is in the $3,365 area. A clear breakout above the $3,365 resistance could pave the way for further gains. Subsequently, the key resistance level may be around $3,380. A breach of this level would likely prompt a test of the secondary target zone at $3,420.

On the downside, the initial support level is at $3,306, with the next key support around $3,285, followed by $3,240.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3322

Target Price: 3450

Stop Loss: 3283

Valid Until: May 2, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3288/3277/3264

Resistance: 3365/3378/3410

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold surged to another all-time high this week, breaching $3,340, as escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China sent investors rushing toward safe-haven assets.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3325.00

Entry Price

3440.00

3230.00

4212.49 +14.58 +0.35%

673.3

Pips

Profit

3230.00

3392.33

Exit Price

3325.00

Entry Price

3440.00

Gold has reached a new pinnacle this week, marking its third consecutive all-time high as intensifying geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties fuel investor demand for safe-haven assets. At the time of writing, spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,342, reflecting a gain of more than 3.5% on the day and eclipsing its previous high of $3,343. This relentless upward momentum in bullion prices underscores a significant shift in market sentiment, one that is being driven as much by geopolitics as by macroeconomic recalibration.

The catalyst behind this latest surge in gold prices is once again rooted in the growing friction between the United States and China. President Donald Trump has ordered a formal investigation into the possibility of slapping tariffs on rare earth imports from China—a strategic escalation that could have long-lasting implications for global supply chains. Rare earth elements are critical to manufacturing high-tech equipment, from electric vehicles to military hardware, and any threat to their availability sends ripples across multiple industries.

The market's reaction has been swift and pronounced. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of major currencies, slid by 0.83% to 99.17. This decline in the dollar provided a further boost to gold, making the yellow metal cheaper for holders of other currencies and reinforcing its appeal amid the prevailing risk-off mood. In such an environment, gold is once again asserting its traditional role as a hedge against systemic uncertainty and economic instability.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell added another layer of complexity to the market narrative during his remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago. While investors have been harboring hopes for a rate cut to offset growing macro headwinds, Powell took a more cautious stance. He emphasized the need for the central bank to remain vigilant on inflation, stating, “Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.”

His comments effectively curbed market enthusiasm for aggressive monetary easing in the near term. The Fed appears to be more focused on the risk of inflation becoming entrenched, especially if tariffs push up costs across the board. This policy stance, although hawkish, is paradoxically adding to gold’s appeal. With the central bank walking a fine line between controlling inflation and not stifling growth, the uncertainty it breeds only adds to gold's allure.

On the data front, U.S. Retail Sales surprised to the upside, indicating that consumer demand remains resilient despite persistent inflationary pressures. However, U.S. Industrial Production continues to show signs of strain, pointing to an ongoing slowdown in the manufacturing sector. This divergence in data adds to the broader picture of an economy that is neither strong enough to dismiss recession fears nor weak enough to trigger immediate policy action—another win for gold bulls.

Traders and analysts alike are now looking ahead to key economic releases, particularly Initial Jobless Claims and housing market data. These indicators will offer critical clues on the labor market’s health and the broader economic trajectory, both of which could influence the Fed’s next move. Until then, gold appears poised to remain in demand, especially as it benefits from a convergence of geopolitical anxiety, dollar weakness, and cautious central bank communication.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold is currently in a consolidation-to-accumulation phase, after briefly retreating on intraday levels. This pullback appears to be a healthy correction, allowing the market to shake off some of its overbought conditions as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Despite short-term fluctuations, the primary bullish trend remains dominant, and price action suggests renewed strength could be imminent.

Price structure reveals a clear pullback in motion with a potential support zone forming between $3,309 and $3,290. If gold maintains traction above $3,327—either through a successful retest or a clean breakout—it could pave the way for a continuation toward $3,338 and eventually $3,352. The final bullish target in this leg stands at $3,440, provided momentum confirms above key support levels.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3325

STOP LOSS: 3230

TAKE PROFIT: 3440

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/CAD inches higher towards 1.3885 in early Thursday trading, buoyed by hawkish Fed rhetoric and stronger U.S. data.

BUY USDCAD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.39200

Entry Price

1.42000

1.37600

1.38217 +0.00070 +0.05%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.37600

1.37848

Exit Price

1.39200

Entry Price

1.42000

The USD/CAD pair continued to gather bullish momentum early Thursday, advancing toward the 1.3885 mark as the European session unfolded. Investors were digesting a fresh round of central bank commentary and economic data, with U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaling a firm stance on rates, while the Bank of Canada opted to leave its benchmark rate unchanged albeit with a clearly dovish undertone. Together, these developments reinforced the diverging policy narrative between the two economies, underpinning the U.S. Dollar against its Canadian counterpart.

Powell’s midweek remarks offered little for the doves to hold onto. The Fed Chair emphasized the risks of inflation resurgence, especially in light of renewed trade tensions and tariff escalations that could stoke price pressures. While Powell acknowledged that rising tariffs could weigh on growth, he also stressed that such developments complicate the policy path, reinforcing the central bank’s preference to wait for further clarity before making any move.

In his own words, Powell noted that “for the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” These comments decisively cooled expectations of a June rate cut, leading market participants to push out their rate cut bets further into the second half of the year. Yields on U.S. Treasuries rose in response, and the dollar caught a bid across the board most notably against the Canadian Dollar, which faces its own set of challenges.

On the other side of the border, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 4.50% on Wednesday, opting not to push forward with another cut just yet. However, the message from Governor Tiff Macklem left the door wide open for easing in the near future. The BoC highlighted growing signs of economic slowdown, weakening consumer activity, and persistent uncertainty across the domestic economy. This more cautious stance fueled speculation that the central bank could ease as soon as June, with money markets now pricing in nearly a 50% chance of a cut at that meeting. According to a recent Bloomberg survey, markets anticipate two rate cuts from the BoC before the end of the year.

With the Federal Reserve maintaining a firm grip on rates and the Bank of Canada edging closer toward a dovish pivot, the widening interest rate differential is becoming increasingly difficult for markets to ignore. This divergence has emerged as a key tailwind for USD/CAD, pushing the pair back toward levels not seen since late 2023.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices a traditional source of support for the Canadian Dollar staged a mild recovery during the week. Geopolitical risks and constrained supply dynamics lent some stability to prices, although the rebound was far from convincing. Given Canada’s position as the largest oil exporter to the United States, firmer oil prices typically offer some cushion to the Loonie. However, in this instance, oil’s tentative recovery has done little to counterbalance the drag from weakening domestic fundamentals and a dovish central bank outlook.

Adding to the cautious tone across markets is the looming Easter weekend, with Good Friday closures expected to drain liquidity and compress volumes in the second half of the trading day. Historically, such conditions can lead to choppier-than-usual price action, and traders are advised to be mindful of exaggerated intraday moves.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair appears poised for further gains. On the 30-minute chart, the price action has broken above a key resistance trendline, signaling a bullish breakout. The structure suggests that upward momentum could continue in the short term, especially if supported by follow-through buying. The pair is approaching a critical psychological zone near 1.3900, which, if breached, could open the door toward the 1.4030 region and potentially beyond.

While the rally has so far been measured, the fundamental and technical backdrop remains supportive of additional upside. As long as U.S. economic data remains robust and the Fed stays on the sidelines, the U.S. Dollar is likely to remain well-bid. Conversely, unless Canada sees a meaningful turnaround in macro data or oil prices begin to surge more convincingly, the Canadian Dollar may struggle to hold its ground.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3920

STOP LOSS: 1.3760

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Amidst the escalating China-U.S. tariff disputes, major global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, reinforcing the long-term bullish outlook for gold.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3324.92

Entry Price

3402.00

3290.00

4212.49 +14.58 +0.35%

349.2

Pips

Loss

3290.00

3289.90

Exit Price

3324.92

Entry Price

3402.00

Fundamentals

The recent escalation of the China-U.S. tariff disputes have reached a critical juncture, with the U.S. imposing a 245% tariff on Chinese imports and China retaliating with a 125% tariff. This has amplified the risk of global supply chain disruptions. Market participants are increasingly concerned that these tariff policies will exacerbate inflation and impede economic expansion. The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a 0.2% contraction in global trade volume by 2025, thereby driving capital inflows into gold as a safe-haven asset.

Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's explicit acknowledgment that "tariffs push up prices" and that "U.S. economic growth is slowing" suggests a potential lowering of the threshold for interest rate cuts. This has elevated market expectations for a June rate cut, which further bolsters the upward trajectory of gold prices.

It is noteworthy that U.S. Treasury yields have continued their downward trend, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.31%. Concurrently, the U.S. Dollar Index has hit a three-year low of 98.77, indicating further downside potential and reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

In addition, major global central banks are consistently increasing their gold reserves. Recent data from the People's Bank of China indicates a fifth consecutive month of accumulation, reinforcing the long-term bullish outlook for gold. Financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and UBS have revised their price targets upwards to US$3,400-US$3,500, with some extreme scenarios projecting a rise to US$4,200.

Technical Analysis

Pullbacks Present Opportunities for Bulls_1

In the 1D timeframe, gold exhibits a robust, unidirectional uptrend, with the price currently breaching the 3,310.87 resistance level, thereby expanding the potential for further gains. The subsequent upward target is projected to test the 3,407.76 level.

Pullbacks Present Opportunities for Bulls_2

In the 4H timeframe, gold is currently consolidating following a surge, with recent candlestick patterns demonstrating a strong upward trajectory, supported by the MA10 and MA20.

In the short term, it is recommended to take the MA10 and MA20 in the 4H timeframe as support levels and go long on pullbacks to the MA10. If the price falls below this level, the MA20 should be considered as the subsequent support. However, a break below both SMAs could lead to a pullback towards the 3,242.82 support level. It is recommended to go long at the lows upon stabilization.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3313.00

Target Price: 3402.00

Stop Loss: 3290.00

Valid Until: May 1, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 3310.87, 3242.82

Resistance: 3357.72, 3407.78

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

A decisive break above these levels could open the door to a more sustained upside move, with 1.4048 as the next key resistance target.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38614

Entry Price

1.40500

1.37600

1.38217 +0.00070 +0.05%

5.0

Pips

Profit

1.37600

1.38664

Exit Price

1.38614

Entry Price

1.40500

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has shifted its stance from “moderate” to a more cautious “wait-and-see” approach, as policymakers assess the potential economic impact of U.S. trade policies under former President Donald Trump. “We will proceed with caution and offer fewer forward-looking signals than usual until there is more clarity,” stated BoC Governor Tiff Macklem. He noted that recent data increasingly point to a “significant slowdown in both business investment and household spending,” largely due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding retaliatory tariffs initiated by the U.S. administration.

In the United States, manufacturing activity continued to expand in March, though momentum may be starting to fade amid persistent global trade tensions. According to data released by the Federal Reserve, factory output increased by 0.3% in March, following a revised 1.0% gain in February. The March figure met economists’ expectations, who had forecast a similar 0.3% rise.

Year-over-year, industrial production grew by 1.0% in March. The manufacturing sector, which accounts for around 10.2% of the U.S. economy, posted an annualized gain of 5.1% in Q1, recovering sharply after contracting by 1.5% in the previous quarter.

Elsewhere, the Empire State Manufacturing Index improved significantly in April, jumping 11.9 points to -8.1 from a previous reading of -20 in March. Although the index remained in negative territory, it outperformed expectations and posted its strongest reading in two months.

However, underlying concerns persist. Survey participants noted slight declines in new orders and shipments, while supply constraints worsened. Delivery times remained steady, and inventory levels continued to rise.

“After a steep drop last month, manufacturing activity contracted only modestly in April,” said Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “Prices paid and received surged at the fastest rate in more than two years. For the first time since 2022, firms voiced a clearly pessimistic outlook.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent worked to calm market nerves, assuring investors that the broader economy remains stable and far from any imminent crisis. He reiterated the administration’s commitment to pursuing “fair” trade agreements, which officials argue are critical to restoring fiscal balance and economic competitiveness. Buyers May Step In as USDCAD Tests Key Support Zone_1

Buyers May Step In as USDCAD Tests Key Support Zone_1

Technical Analysis

The USDCAD pair has once again retreated toward the 1.3852 level—a support zone that has acted as a springboard for upward movements in the past. This level could provide another opportunity for buyers to step in. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 31.49, approaching oversold conditions, suggesting that bearish momentum may be losing steam and a bullish reversal could be on the horizon.

Both the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are positioned at 1.3900 and 1.4038, respectively. A decisive break above these levels could open the door to a more sustained upside move, with 1.4048 as the next key resistance target.

On the other hand, if the support at 1.3852 fails to hold, the pair could extend its decline toward the 1.3700 region. As price action tightens, traders will be closely watching for confirmation in either direction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3860

Target price: 1.4050

Stop loss: 1.3760

Validity: Apr 27, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices breached the US$3,300 psychological threshold on Wednesday, reaching a new peak since the onset of the U.S.-China trade war. Concurrently, escalating uncertainty has triggered a fresh wave of risk aversion, which continues to underpin gold prices.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3410.00

Entry Price

3110.00

3456.00

4212.49 +14.58 +0.35%

460.0

Pips

Loss

3110.00

3456.06

Exit Price

3410.00

Entry Price

3456.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices breached the US$3,300 level intraday for the first time, experiencing a US$70 surge. Year-to-date gains exceed 25%.

The deteriorating fundamentals, underscored by the latest tariff developments on Wednesday, which include escalating U.S. tariffs on China and China's decision to halt further Boeing deliveries, maintain a bullish outlook for gold, with warnings of severe negative impacts from escalating conflicts.

Furthermore, concerns that Trump's tariffs will impact the U.S. economy continue to fuel questions about American exceptionalism and the dollar's credibility as a reserve currency, potentially signaling the peak of the strong dollar era. Gold prices are poised to benefit as central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar.

Institutional investors and market participants are pricing in at least three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, a monetary easing stance that is generally supportive of gold.

"As long as uncertainty persists, gold will continue to strengthen," stated Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilver Central (a Singaporean trader).

ANZ believes that haven buying in gold has not yet entered an accelerated phase. ANZ has revised its year-end gold price forecast to US$3,600 per ounce and its six-month price prediction to US$3,500 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs analysts anticipate gold prices reaching US$3,700 per ounce by the end of this year and touching US$4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.

Be Cautious of a Pullback after the Surge_1

Technical Analysis

Gold prices established a new all-time high near US$3,317 earlier on Wednesday, sustaining a robust bullish trend. This recent surge, exceeding US$100 in just four days, follows rapid ascents from US$3,000 to US$3,100 and US$3,100 to US$3,200, each occurring within two days. Currently, the bulls maintain dominance.

Given the historical price action, each significant rally in gold has been followed by a period of profit-taking. Therefore, a short-term retracement is anticipated. Furthermore, a breach below US$3,288 could trigger a deeper correction, warranting caution.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3410

Target Price: 3110

Stop Loss: 3456

Valid Until: May 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3288, 3277, 3264

Resistance: 3329, 3350, 3378

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

A sustained bounce from the 142.00 region could trigger a move back toward this upper resistance zone.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

142.601

Entry Price

150.520

139.000

155.072 -0.273 -0.18%

37.1

Pips

Profit

139.000

142.972

Exit Price

142.601

Entry Price

150.520

U.S. manufacturing output rose modestly in March, though signs point to a potential slowdown ahead as global trade tensions escalate. The tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump have triggered a prolonged trade conflict with China, adding pressure on the industrial sector. According to data released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, factory output increased by 0.3% in March, following an upwardly revised gain of 1.0% in February. This result was in line with market expectations surveyed by Reuters.

On a year-over-year basis, factory production grew by 1.0% in March. Manufacturing, which accounts for roughly 10.2% of the U.S. economy, expanded at an annualized rate of 5.1% during the first quarter—bouncing back strongly from a 1.5% contraction in the final quarter of last year.

In a separate release, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index saw a notable improvement in April, climbing 11.9 points to -8.1 from March’s -20. While still in contraction territory, the index exceeded expectations of a softer recovery to -14.5 and marked the strongest reading in two months.

Despite the rebound, the overall tone remains cautious. Survey respondents reported mild declines in new orders and shipments. Delivery times were largely unchanged, but supply conditions continued to worsen. Meanwhile, inventories saw further increases.

“After last month’s sharp downturn, activity declined only slightly in April,” commented Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “Input and output prices surged at the fastest pace in over two years, and for the first time since 2022, businesses expressed a noticeably negative outlook.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassured markets, dismissing the notion of any looming financial emergency. He stated that the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound and emphasized the administration’s commitment to pursuing “fair” trade arrangements. These policies, according to officials, are essential to rebalancing the U.S. budget and stabilizing long-term fiscal outlooks.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed growing concern over the economic impact of U.S. trade policies. In an interview with Sankei newspaper, Ueda acknowledged that the evolving situation increasingly mirrors the BoJ’s downside risk scenarios, which are already weighing on business and consumer sentiment. He hinted that a policy response may be warranted if conditions continue to deteriorate. Bullish Momentum May Resume From Triple Bottom Zone_1

Bullish Momentum May Resume From Triple Bottom Zone_1

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY has pulled back toward the 142.13 area, a key support level that has already acted twice as a springboard for bullish momentum. With the latest local low established at 139.64, the structure may be forming what resembles a triple bottom pattern—a technical formation that often precedes a reversal to the upside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 31, approaching oversold territory. This could suggest that bearish pressure is waning, potentially opening the door for a bullish correction.

Both the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are clustered near the 151.90 and 150.68 levels, respectively. These zones also coincide with the 0.618 and 0.50 Fibonacci retracement levels, creating a confluence of resistance that could act as a medium-term target if the current support holds. A sustained bounce from the 142.00 region could trigger a move back toward this upper resistance zone.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 142.55

Target price: 150.52

Stop loss: 139.00

Validity: Apr 27, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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