Gold remains elevated, with spot trading near $4,480/oz and a daily range from roughly $4,428 to ~$4,490 today, marking continued upward pressure. Today’s rally has been driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions (U.S.–Venezuela conflict) and markets pricing in potential Fed rate cuts amid cooling U.S. data, both classic catalysts for safe-haven demand.

However, this strong advance has pushed XAU/USD into stretched technical territory, especially on lower timeframes. When volatility expands rapidly with large unsecured advances, short-term buyers may begin locking profits, creating an environment ripe for pullbacks. Added to this, declining futures open interest and lower trading volumes suggest participation is thinning even as prices stay near highs.

On the M15 timeframe, sentiment remains dominated by reaction to headlines and intraday positioning, rather than clean trend continuation. The move above $4,470/oz signals strong short-term bullish conviction, but repeated tests of upper resistance without significant follow-through often lead to short-term exhaustion and corrective retracements.

Traders adjusting positions in response to extended intraday moves especially in holiday-affected liquidity conditions tend to lean toward profit taking near local extremes. With price currently at the upper end of its intraday range and volatility high, caution among bulls is likely emerging, which can amplify pullbacks when technical support levels are probed.

On M15, gold price is situated near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a period of high volatility and overextension rather than balanced price discovery. When repeated upper band tests fail to produce a breakout, the probability of a pullback toward the mid-band increases.

Bollinger Bands: Daily spikes have stretched the bands, and price staying near the upper band without a clean breakout suggests short-term exhaustion. A close back inside the bands after an extended move often signals fading upside momentum, paving the way for tactical shorts.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): While price is above the cloud consistent with a broader bull context on M15 the Kijun-sen and cloud boundary act as dynamic equilibrium. If price begins to slip and fails to reclaim the upper cloud resistance on retests, it signals a shift from short-term control by buyers to sellers.

Stoch (5,3,3): The oscillator is likely in overbought territory after strong advances. A bearish stochastic crossover from high levels particularly if price also struggles to stay above the Bollinger upper band would confirm that downward pressure is building.

Key dynamic levels today:

Resistance/entry zone: $4,480–$4,500/oz (upper Bollinger resistance + recent intraday high cluster)

Immediate support: $4,430–$4,445/oz (mid-band area + short-term pivot)

Lower support buffer: $4,380–$4,400/oz (lower band confluence)

Entry: $4,480–$4,500/oz

Take Profit: $4,430/oz

Stop Loss: $4,520/oz

USD/JPY currently sits around ~156.35–156.75, maintaining levels close to intraday highs but lacking decisive follow-through beyond 157.0. Live mid-market data shows a slightly weaker dollar against the yen compared with the previous day’s attempt to push higher, reflecting hesitation at elevated levels.

Macro drivers are shifting. Today’s FX session shows the U.S. dollar weakening broadly after a brief rebound, pressured by easing geopolitical anxiety and softer U.S. manufacturing data that diminished safe-haven demand. This move has seen the dollar index slide for a second straight day, with the yen benefiting as USD/JPY slips off session peaks.

On the policy front, the Bank of Japan has vowed to continue raising interest rates if data supports it, which could strengthen the yen over time and contribute to corrective pressure on USD/JPY. While this is a broader timeframe factor, it feeds into short-term sentiment that speculative upside may be limited and that rallies are being sold into near resistance.

Short-term sentiment on the M15 timeframe shows buyers losing steam near the upper part of the recent range, with price failing to sustain a breakout above 157.0–157.3. USD/JPY remains range-bound within a narrow band earlier in the Asian session, suggesting that the pair is in distribution mode rather than trend continuation at these levels.

This dynamic is compounded by broader USD softness and improved risk appetite, which tends to benefit funding-clearer currencies like JPY when the dollar is not aggressively bid. The inability to push convincingly higher leaves space for tactical sellers to target short-term resistance clusters and dynamic supply zones typical of year-end flows.

On M15, USD/JPY price has been testing the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the rally is stretched on the intraday timeframe. Stalling near the upper band and repeated failures to break above 157.0 imply that upside volatility is becoming exhausted. A rejection candlestick near that band or a close back inside the BB range can be an early signal that bulls are losing grip.

The Ichimoku (9,26,52) on M15 shows price near the upper equilibrium zone and struggling to establish sustained closes above the Kijun-sen and cloud. This suggests that short-term balance is at a pivot point and that the downward edge can be tested when dynamic resistances hold.

Stoch (5,3,3) remains in neutral to slightly overbought territory. If a bearish crossover occurs near the upper band while prices hover below dynamic resistance, it will signal that sellers are gaining momentum within the range.

Resistance: ~157.0–157.3 (upper range barrier and dynamic supply)

Support: ~155.6–155.8 (lower BB area and recent range support)

Entry: 156.75–157.10

Take Profit: 155.60

Stop Loss: 157.45

Silver prices continued to surge on Tuesday, extending their advance for a fourth consecutive session as investors gravitated toward safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty and persistent expectations of monetary easing in the United States. Spot Silver (XAG/USD) was trading near $78.40 at the time of writing, posting a daily gain of roughly 2.9% and marking one of its strongest short-term performances in recent months.

The latest leg higher in the white metal has been driven primarily by a sharp rise in global risk aversion following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by US authorities and his transfer to New York to face narcotics-related charges. The development has injected a new layer of uncertainty into already fragile geopolitical conditions, raising concerns about diplomatic fallout and the potential for broader regional instability. These fears were reinforced by comments from US President Donald Trump, who warned that Washington could pursue further military action should Venezuela’s interim authorities fail to comply with US demands. Such rhetoric has historically been supportive of precious metals, as investors seek protection against political shocks and systemic risk.

Silver has also benefited from its close correlation with shifting expectations for US monetary policy. Financial markets remain increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will be forced to adopt a more accommodative stance as economic momentum shows signs of cooling. Futures pricing tracked by the CME FedWatch tool indicates that investors are currently factoring in two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts in 2026. A lower interest-rate environment tends to enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Silver by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them, a dynamic that continues to underpin the metal’s broader bullish narrative.

Compounding this supportive backdrop is the recent weakness in the US Dollar, which has helped limit downside pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. As the greenback softens, Silver becomes more attractive to non-US buyers, reinforcing demand at a time when investors are actively rotating into hard assets. In my view, the convergence of geopolitical risk, a dovish policy outlook, and currency dynamics creates a structurally favorable environment for Silver, particularly relative to other risk-sensitive assets.

Market participants are now turning their attention to key US macroeconomic data, with a particular focus on labor market indicators. The December Nonfarm Payrolls report, due later this week, is expected to play a critical role in shaping near-term expectations for Federal Reserve policy. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could lend support to the US Dollar and temporarily cap Silver’s advance by dampening rate-cut expectations. However, any signs of labor market softening would likely reinforce the case for monetary easing and could act as a fresh catalyst for further gains in the white metal.

From a technical perspective, Silver’s broader uptrend remains firmly intact despite brief intraday pauses. Recent price action shows minor pullbacks following the metal’s failure to decisively clear resistance near the $78.10 level, suggesting a period of consolidation rather than a loss of bullish momentum. Importantly, Silver continues to trade above its 50-period Exponential Moving Average, which is acting as dynamic support and reinforcing the prevailing short-term bullish trend. Price movement remains aligned with an ascending trendline, further confirming the strength of the current structure.

Momentum indicators continue to flash positive signals, even as they hover in overbought territory. While overbought conditions can sometimes precede short-term corrections, their persistence during strong trends often reflects sustained buying pressure rather than imminent exhaustion. As long as Silver remains supported above key moving averages and trendline support, the technical outlook continues to favor additional upside in the sessions ahead.

In my assessment, Silver’s current rally is not merely a reactionary move but part of a broader repricing driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical forces. Should risk sentiment remain fragile and US data reinforce expectations of lower interest rates, the white metal appears well positioned to extend its advance toward the $82.50 region, with scope for a further move toward $84.80 if bullish momentum accelerates.

BUY SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 79.50

STOP LOSS: 75.00

TAKE PROFIT: 84.80

The Australian Dollar strengthened for a third consecutive session against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, pushing the AUD/JPY cross to fresh multi-month highs as global risk sentiment improved and interest rate expectations tilted further in favor of Australia. The pair was last trading around 105.20 during European hours, after briefly touching 105.37, its highest level since July 2024, earlier in the session.

The advance reflects a broader rotation back into risk-sensitive currencies, with investors trimming defensive positions amid signs that geopolitical and macroeconomic tail risks may be stabilizing. In particular, easing concerns over a wider escalation in United States–Venezuela tensions have supported global equities and commodity-linked currencies, reducing demand for traditional safe havens such as the Japanese Yen.

The Australian Dollar has been one of the primary beneficiaries of the renewed risk-on tone. As a currency closely tied to global growth, commodities, and yield differentials, the AUD tends to outperform when volatility subsides and investors feel comfortable seeking higher returns. The Yen, by contrast, has struggled as improving sentiment reduces its appeal as a defensive asset.

Markets are now increasingly focused on Australia’s November Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release on Wednesday. The data will be pivotal in shaping expectations around the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next policy steps. With inflation already proving more persistent than anticipated earlier in the year, any upside surprise could reinforce the market’s conviction that Australian interest rates will remain higher for longer.

Further underpinning the AUD is a recent survey of leading economists cited by the Australian Financial Review, which suggests the RBA may not yet be finished tightening monetary policy this cycle. According to the poll, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly elevated well into the coming year, keeping pressure on policymakers to act decisively.

Notably, a growing number of economists now expect at least two additional rate hikes, a significant shift from the more cautious outlook that dominated earlier quarters. If realized, this would widen the yield differential between Australia and Japan even further — a key driver of AUD/JPY strength — and encourage continued carry trade activity in favor of the Australian Dollar.

From a market perspective, this evolving narrative reinforces the idea that Australia’s interest rate peak may be higher and later than previously priced, offering structural support to the currency beyond short-term risk swings.

That said, the upside for AUD/JPY may not be entirely unchallenged. The Japanese Yen could find intermittent support from rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue its gradual path toward policy normalization in 2025.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reiterated that the central bank remains prepared to adjust interest rates if economic activity and inflation evolve in line with its projections. Ueda emphasized that Japan’s economy is likely to sustain a “virtuous cycle” of moderate wage growth and price increases — language that markets interpret as a signal that ultra-loose policy settings may slowly be phased out.

While Japanese rates remain far below those of Australia, even modest BoJ tightening could reduce some of the pressure on the Yen, particularly if global risk sentiment deteriorates or volatility resurfaces.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on domestic Japanese developments. Fiscal concerns surrounding Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proposed large-scale spending plans have raised questions about Japan’s long-term debt trajectory and policy coordination. At the same time, renewed talk of currency intervention has surfaced, with business leaders urging the government to take action against excessive Yen weakness that is squeezing importers and households.

Although direct intervention remains a low-probability tool for now, the risk cannot be entirely dismissed, especially if the Yen resumes a rapid or disorderly decline.

From a technical standpoint, AUD/JPY remains firmly in a bullish phase. The pair continues to print higher highs and higher lows, respecting a well-defined ascending trendline that has guided price action for several months.

A cup-and-handle continuation pattern has emerged on the medium-term chart, suggesting the recent consolidation phase was corrective rather than distributive. With price now breaking higher, the technical structure points toward renewed upside momentum.

Momentum indicators remain supportive, and as long as the pair holds above the 104.50–104.80 zone, the broader trend bias remains bullish. The next major upside target lies near 108.00, a level that would represent a significant extension of the current rally and potentially attract further trend-following flows.

BUY AUDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 105.200

STOP LOSS: 104.500

TAKE PROFIT: 108.00

The euro edged lower against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, with EUR/JPY trading near 183.10 at the time of writing, down roughly 0.10% on the day, as investors navigated a fragile global risk environment marked by central bank uncertainty, softening European economic data, and intensifying geopolitical risks.

While the decline remains modest, price action reflects a broader hesitancy in currency markets, where traders are struggling to balance lingering doubts over the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization path against increasingly mixed signals from the Eurozone economy. The result has been a lack of conviction on both sides of the cross, leaving EUR/JPY vulnerable to near-term corrective pressure.

On the Japanese side, attention remains firmly focused on the BoJ after Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Monday that the central bank stands ready to continue raising interest rates if economic activity and inflation evolve in line with its forecasts. Ueda’s remarks reinforce the view that Japan has entered a more durable inflation cycle—one that could eventually justify further tightening after years of ultra-loose monetary policy.

However, despite the hawkish undertone, markets remain skeptical about the timing of the next move. Most economists believe the BoJ is unlikely to act before mid-year, preferring to wait for confirmation from the spring “shunto” wage negotiations, which are expected to provide clearer evidence of sustained wage growth. This delay continues to cap the yen’s upside, as traders remain reluctant to price in aggressive tightening before concrete data emerges.

As a result, the yen’s traditional role as a safe-haven has been partially offset by policy uncertainty, limiting its ability to mount a decisive recovery despite rising geopolitical risks.

Meanwhile, the euro is facing its own headwinds. Earlier in the session, Eurozone PMI data were revised lower, adding to signs that economic momentum across the bloc remains fragile. The HCOB Services PMI for December was revised down to 52.4, indicating slower expansion in the services sector, while the Composite PMI was cut to 51.5 from an initial 51.9, reinforcing concerns that overall activity is losing steam into year-end.

Although readings above 50 still point to expansion, the downward revisions suggest that growth remains uneven and vulnerable, particularly as higher interest rates continue to weigh on demand. These figures have done little to strengthen the case for euro upside, especially against a currency like the yen that tends to benefit when risk sentiment deteriorates.

Markets are now turning their attention to Germany’s preliminary Harmonized Consumer Prices Index (HICP) for December, a release that could influence near-term euro positioning. Expectations are for a 0.4% month-on-month increase, and a stronger-than-anticipated reading could offer the single currency some temporary relief by reinforcing the European Central Bank’s cautious stance on easing. However, any support may prove short-lived unless inflation surprises meaningfully to the upside.

Beyond macroeconomic data, geopolitics continue to play a critical role in shaping FX sentiment. Renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain a persistent drag on the euro, particularly given the Eurozone’s lingering vulnerability to energy supply disruptions. At the same time, recent escalation in Latin America, following a large-scale U.S. military operation targeting Venezuela, has injected another layer of global uncertainty into markets.

Historically, such developments tend to favor the Japanese yen, which is widely viewed as a defensive asset during periods of heightened geopolitical stress. While this dynamic has not yet triggered a sharp yen rally, it adds to the downside risks for EUR/JPY should global tensions intensify further.

From a technical perspective, the outlook has deteriorated. After an extended bullish run, EUR/JPY formed a rising wedge pattern, a classic signal of weakening upside momentum. The pair has now broken decisively below the wedge support, confirming a short-term bearish correction and suggesting that sellers are beginning to regain control.

The breakdown also coincides with a violation of an ascending trendline on the hourly time frame, strengthening the bearish case. As long as the pair remains below the former wedge structure, downside continuation appears increasingly likely. Key support levels are now seen in the 180.00–177.00 zone, an area that could attract buyers but also represents a meaningful retracement of the prior uptrend.

SELL EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 183.150

STOP LOSS: 184.00

TAKE PROFIT: 180.00

Following the U.S. Army Delta Force's Saturday raid on Venezuela and the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro and his spouse, bilateral tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have escalated. Bloomberg reports that on Monday, Maduro refused to plead guilty to the U.S. drug trafficking terrorism charges, triggering a significant geopolitical litigation with far-reaching implications. The mounting geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the region have driven up prices of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. "The Venezuela situation has evidently rekindled safe-haven demand, but this is occurring amidst concerns over geopolitical stability, energy supply, and monetary policy," stated Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Deutsche Helios Metall. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained holdings at 1,065.13 tons. In the industry sector, Michael Widmer, head of metal research at Bank of America, noted that 13 major North American gold miners are projected to see a 2% year-over-year decline in 2026 production to 19.2 million ounces, with all-in sustaining costs expected to rise by 3% to approximately US$1,600 per ounce. He emphasized that market expectations for gold output remain overly optimistic. The bank considers gold a crucial hedge within investment portfolios and forecasts the 2026 average price could reach US$4,538 per ounce.

In terms of economic data, S&P Global's weekly report indicates that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI remained at 51.8, signifying ongoing expansion in the manufacturing sector. Conversely, the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI declined from 48.2 in November to 47.9 last month, reflecting continued contraction in business activity. These figures did not temper dovish expectations, causing the U.S. dollar to retreat from nearly four-week highs reached on Monday and further supporting the rally in non-yielding gold. Market forecasts suggest the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March and potentially implement an additional cut by the end of the year. Such dovish monetary policy outlook has driven gold prices higher. Recent minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee indicate that most Fed officials consider further rate cuts appropriate as long as inflation continues to decline, though there remains divergence over the timing and magnitude of reductions. Lower interest rates may reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby supporting its price as a non-yielding asset. The upcoming December U.S. employment report, scheduled for release on Friday, will garner significant attention. Markets generally anticipate an increase of 55,000 new jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. Should the data surpass expectations, it could bolster the dollar in the short term and exert downward pressure on commodity prices denominated in U.S. dollars.

The bullish envelope of the Bollinger Bands in the 1H timeframe is opening upward, with SMAs diverging upwards. Overall, the short-term bullish trend remains intact, with a high probability of testing the 4480 and 4500 levels. However, the upward momentum is beginning to slow, indicating increased resistance overhead. The MACD is forming a death cross, with the MACD line and signal line currently pulling back toward the zero-axis, suggesting an ongoing correction. A breach below the middle Bollinger Band could lead to a corrective move toward the EMA50 or the lower Bollinger Band, at approximately 4416 and 4407, respectively. The RSI stands at 63, indicating the market is in a bullish zone. In the 1D timeframe, the price is rising along the EMA12 and the upper Bollinger Band; however, last week's candlestick pattern exhibits a bearish engulfing within a broader bullish trend. As long as the 4550 resistance level is not broken, a short-term correction toward the EMA50, around 4216, is likely. The RSI's peak behavior shows a downward trend but has not confirmed a top. Meanwhile, with an RSI reading of 64, the price remains in a bullish zone. It is recommended to go short before going long.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4480

Target Price: 4100

Stop Loss: 4600

Support: 4200, 4100, 3800

Resistance: 4530, 4550, 5000