Since the start of the year, silver prices have surged by over 99%. In October, constrained silver supply drove prices to $50 per ounce. Analysts at the time attributed this to a temporary shift in metal holdings. Last spring, due to tariff concerns, large amounts of silver flowed into the U.S., causing a shortage in London. According to Bloomberg, the amount of freely circulating silver (silver not locked in ETFs or other funds) plummeted from a high of 850 million ounces to just 200 million ounces — a drop of 75%. Metals Focus estimated that the silver supply at one point fell as low as 150 million ounces. Unprecedented silver demand in India pushed the market to the brink of collapse. As gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, Indians turned to silver, further intensifying pressure on London's silver supply. Eventually, as metal flowed back from New York to London, the market adjusted and pressure eased. However, after a brief pullback, silver prices resumed their upward trend. According to an analyst at ANZ Group, recent sell-offs in London's stock market have caused global supply shortages, and the impact of this shortage is still ongoing. The problem is not that London lacks enough silver, but that there is not enough silver anywhere. Bloomberg reports that recent inflows of silver into London have worsened supply tightness elsewhere. Silver inventories in warehouses related to the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to their lowest level in nearly a decade. Meanwhile, silver lease rates have risen, reflecting strong demand and limited metal availability. This issue cannot be solved simply by moving metal from one warehouse to another. The crux is that demand has exceeded supply for years. Metals Focus reports that silver is on track for a fifth consecutive year of structural market deficit. After hitting record highs in 2024, industrial demand is expected to fall about 2% due to price pressures, leading to an overall demand decline of around 4%. Yet with the silver mine output flat, production remains insufficient to meet market needs. Metals Focus forecasts that gold demand this year will exceed supply by 95 million ounces. This would bring the cumulative market gap over the past five years to 820 million ounces, equivalent to the average annual output of mines in one year. Since 2010, the cumulative silver supply shortfall has exceeded 580 million ounces. Even with higher prices, mined supply is unlikely to grow quickly enough to close the gap. Silver mine output peaked in 2016 at 900 million ounces and has since declined by an average of 1.4% annually until last year. Output is projected to reach 814 million ounces in 2023. It appears we will have to rely on drawdowns in above-ground silver stocks to cover the deficit for at least the next few years. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue easing monetary policy are also boosting silver prices. The U.S. recently added silver to its list of strategic minerals, which could intensify demand pressures and supply shortages. The director of gold and silver at Metals Focus said, "There's definitely going to be far more tightness in the silver market.” Bloomberg notes that, due to fears of a sudden spike in U.S. metal prices, some traders are reluctant to ship metal out of the U.S., and if global markets tighten further, there is little hope for relief. There are also concerns that the U.S. may impose tariffs on silver to protect the domestic supply. These fundamental supply–demand dynamics should continue to support silver prices at least in the medium term.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is as high as 89%, up from about 63% a month ago. Fed expectations dominate market movements. New York Fed President Williams stated that Fed policy is still "slightly restrictive," suggesting room to move toward neutral. Lower rate expectations reduce the relative return on U.S. assets, and when traders grow more confident in easing, the dollar index typically comes under pressure. Wall Street institutions are largely aligned in their forecasts. Bank of America currently leans toward a December cut, citing soaring unemployment, weak private-sector hiring, and Powell's reluctance to alter the dovish pricing stance. Such consensus tends to bolster market confidence and prompt investors to further unwind dollar positions. Fiscal uncertainty exacerbates dollar weakness. A $4.1 trillion tax reform plan, tariff uncertainties, and questions about Fed independence are dampening foreign investor appetite for U.S. assets, reducing the capital inflows that normally support the dollar.

As shown in the 1H chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the moving averages are flattening. After being pressured by the upper band, silver is oscillating near the middle band. MACD shows a death cross, and upward momentum is gradually weakening — a sign of bearish divergence indicating further declines. RSI is at 47, signaling market hesitation. Support lies near EMA50 and the Bollinger lower Band at approximately 57.3 and 56.5, respectively. Regarding the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, moving averages are diverging upward, and the bullish trend remains intact. However, a large bearish candle has pulled the price back to EMA12. If this level is breached, the trend could reverse. MACD shows a death cross as well, while the RSI is at 61. However, successive highs are getting lower, potentially signaling a turning point. Selling at highs is recommended.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 58

Target price: 50

Stop loss: 60

Support: 55/53/50

Resistance: 59/60/65

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Monday that the Japanese central bank remains on track to raise interest rates, provided that prices and the broader economy continue to develop as anticipated. Ueda added that the probability of the BoJ's base-case scenario for growth and inflation is gradually increasing. This potential for tightening, however, is offset by domestic concerns. Rising Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are actively increasing the country's debt servicing costs, effectively limiting the BoJ’s capacity for aggressive tightening and posing a structural obstacle for the Yen (JPY).

U.S. economic data released on Monday painted a softer picture for the manufacturing sector. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.2 in November from 48.7, missing the forecast and marking the ninth consecutive month of contraction. The underlying details were equally concerning: the New Orders Index fell to 47.4, extending its losing streak, while the Employment Index dropped to 44, suggesting ongoing momentum loss in the labor market. The only area of resilience was the Prices Paid Index, which ticked up to 58.5, signaling persistent cost pressures.

Following the consistently weaker U.S. economic data, market participants have aggressively increased their bets on Fed interest rate cuts. Traders are now pricing in an 87% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week, a sharp acceleration from 63% just one month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Adding fuel to the dovish speculation is an unconfirmed report suggesting that former White House Economic Advisor, Kevin Hassett, has emerged as the favored candidate to be the next Fed Chair. Hassett is seen as an ally who supports U.S. President Donald Trump's call for a faster and deeper reduction in interest rates to stimulate the economy. U.S. Treasury yields remain firm, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.086%, while real yields hold stable at 1.856%.

In geopolitical news, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in the Kremlin for talks on a possible resolution to the conflict in Europe. Just before the meeting, Putin issued a warning that Europe would face a swift defeat if it entered into a war with Russia, and he dismissed European counter-proposals on Ukraine as being "absolutely unacceptable" to Russia. Trump has repeatedly voiced his desire to end the conflict, but his efforts to date have yet to secure a peace deal.

The USD/JPY pair is clearly positioned within a prevailing downtrend, evidenced by a defined bearish trendline and the failure to print new higher highs. This suggests that the downward trajectory could continue. The price has recently retested the confluence zone created by the bearish trendline and the 100-period Moving Average (MA), which sits at 155.91. The 200-period MA is positioned slightly higher at 156.27. This critical confluence zone offers a high-probability opportunity for entering short (sell) positions, with a target set near the recent local low of 154.80, the next key support level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at the neutral 47 level, having recently fallen from a high of 70 (overbought territory). Crucially, the clearest technical signal is a bearish divergence on the RSI compared to the previous touch of the trendline. This divergence signals that buying strength is exhausted, potentially opening the door for a decisive move to the downside. Conversely, a strong break and close above the bearish trendline would invalidate the current short setup and suggest that further gains are likely.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 155.75

Target price: 154.80

Stop loss: 156.40

Validity: Dec 12, 2025 15:00:00

The latest figures from the Eurozone painted a mixed but relatively stable inflation picture for November. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.2% year-over-year (YoY), coming in fractionally above the consensus of 2.1% and matching the pace seen in October. The Core HICP, which excludes volatile components, increased by 2.4% YoY, just missing the 2.5% forecast and remaining unchanged from the October rate.

On a monthly basis, Core HICP fell by 0.5% in November, reversing the 0.3% increase recorded in October. The headline HICP decreased by 0.3% in November, compared to an increase of 0.2% in October. These inflation data points bolstered the case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its current policy stance, reinforcing market expectations that interest rates will remain steady as inflation stays slightly above the ECB’s 2% medium-term target. With policymakers signaling little urgency to adjust policy, attention now focuses on the ECB’s next rate decision, scheduled for December 18th. ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel recently commented that the Eurozone had "practically reached" its inflation objective and that the rate would continue to fluctuate around this level in the near future.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economic data released on Monday painted a softer picture for the manufacturing sector. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.2 in November from 48.7, missing the 48.6 forecast and marking the ninth consecutive month of contraction. The underlying details were equally soft. The New Orders Index fell to 47.4 from 49.4, extending its recent string of losses, while the Employment Index dropped to 44 from 46. The only firm spot came from the Prices Paid Index, which remained in expansion, ticking up to 58.5 from 58.

Following the consistently weaker U.S. economic data, market participants have aggressively increased their bets on interest rate cuts. Traders are now pricing in an 87% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week, a sharp increase from 63% just one month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. U.S. Treasury yields remain firm, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.086%. U.S. real yields, which correlate inversely with gold prices, are stable at 1.856%.

In geopolitical news, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in the Kremlin for talks on a possible resolution to the conflict in Europe. Just before the meeting, Putin issued a warning that Europe would face a swift defeat if it entered into a war with Russia, and he dismissed European counter-proposals on Ukraine as being "absolutely unacceptable" to Russia. Trump has repeatedly voiced his desire to end the conflict, but his efforts to date have yet to secure a peace deal.

The EUR/USD pair appears to have broken out of a bearish channel that had been in place since October 1st, originating from 1.1778 and finding a local low at 1.1469 on November 5th. Following this local low, the price initiated a strong recovery that was initially rejected by the channel's upper boundary. However, a subsequent attempt resulted in a decisive breakout to the upside.

Crucially, on a recent pullback, the price retested the bearish trendline—now acting as support—and rebounded strongly, confirming the flip of resistance into support. This change in technical dynamic strongly suggests a bullish breakout that could propel the price toward the next significant resistance level at 1.1758.

The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 4-hour chart are tightly grouped at 1.1578 and 1.1584, respectively, sitting just below the upper channel line and the recent rebound point. This positioning indicates that the MAs are now acting as solid dynamic support. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) only reached a minimum of 48 during the recent pullback, failing to enter oversold territory even after the breakout. This suggests that the underlying momentum remains strong, signaling room for continued upside. Current purchases are favored from the 1.1604 zone. Conversely, a strong downward move that places the price back inside the bearish channel would invalidate the current bullish setup.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1630

Target price: 1.1758

Stop loss: 1.1540

Validity: Dec 12, 2025 15:00:00

During early Asian trading on 3 December 2025, AUD/USD is hovering in the 0.6550–0.6560 region, near the top of today’s intraday range, after having traded roughly between 0.6538 and 0.6571 so far. The immediate catalyst for the latest push higher has been Australia’s Q3 2025 GDP, which printed at 0.7% q/q versus a 0.6% forecast, the strongest quarterly pace since late 2022 and lifting annual growth to about 2.2%.

This data reinforces the narrative that the Australian economy is still expanding at or slightly above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s trend estimate, with government spending and business investment doing most of the heavy lifting.

Paradoxically, that strength reduces the odds of near-term RBA easing. Recent commentary suggests markets now expect the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold well into 2026, as policymakers remain uneasy about sticky inflation and surging housing wealth.

A “higher-for-longer” stance from the RBA is structurally AUD-supportive, but it also raises concerns that restrictive policy will eventually bite into household demand, especially given elevated debt levels and high mortgage sensitivity in Australia.

On the US side, the macro backdrop is different. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has slipped to 48.2 in November, marking the softest reading in four months and pointing to renewed contraction in the industrial sector. Fed funds futures now price more than an 80% probability of a rate cut at the 9–10 December FOMC meeting, effectively confirming that the Fed is moving deeper into an easing cycle.

However, the external environment is not purely AUD-bullish. China’s private-sector manufacturing PMIs have dipped back below 50, with the Caixin manufacturing index printing 49.9 in November versus 50.5 expected and 50.6 prior, signalling borderline contraction and soft external demand.

For an export-sensitive, China-linked currency like the AUD, this acts as a medium-term drag, especially if the market starts to question how long Australia can outgrow a slowing regional backdrop.

Risk sentiment going into today’s session is cautiously constructive but no longer euphoric. The VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, has retreated to the mid-teens after spiking above 20 during recent tariff headlines, with the latest close around 16.7–17.0, signalling moderate rather than extreme risk aversion. Global equities have stabilised and, in some markets, are pushing back toward recent highs, supported by expectations of further monetary easing across the major economies and by the OECD’s projection of global GDP growth around 3.2% for 2025.

For AUD specifically, the sentiment picture is nuanced. On one hand, the stronger-than-expected GDP print has attracted fresh buying interest from macro and systematic funds that allocate toward economies with relative growth and yield advantages. The Australian housing market’s renewed strength and the record A$12 trillion value of housing stock also bolster perceptions of wealth and balance sheet resilience, which can support consumption in the near term.

On the other hand, that same strength is problematic for the RBA’s inflation fight, undermining the case for rate cuts and raising the risk of a policy stance that remains restrictive for longer than markets or households can comfortably digest.

In the very short term, intraday positioning suggests that the knee-jerk AUD buying after the GDP surprise may be getting stretched. The pair has already repriced a more hawkish RBA path against a more dovish Fed, while at the same time China’s sub-50 PMI and mixed Asian factory data highlight that the external demand story is far from robust.

This “good domestic news versus weak external backdrop” mix often produces asymmetric risk on short intraday timeframes: traders happily chase the first spike higher, but once the obvious data surprise is priced in, they become more willing to fade extended moves, especially ahead of risk events such as the US ISM Services PMI later in the day.

On the M15 chart, AUD/USD’s intraday structure since the GDP release is that of a sharp impulsive move higher from the lower 0.65s into the mid-0.65s, followed by increasingly hesitant candles as price tests resistance near 0.6565–0.6570, close to the top of today’s range. Given the reported high around 0.6571 and low near 0.6538, the 20-period Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) on M15 are likely anchored around a mid-band roughly at 0.6550, with the upper band extending toward 0.6570–0.6580 and the lower band near 0.6535–0.6540.

Price currently trades near or slightly above the upper band, which statistically corresponds to an overextended move relative to the last 20 M15 candles. When price repeatedly “rides” the upper band and then begins to print smaller real bodies or wicks on the topside, it often signals that buying momentum is losing steam and that a mean-reversion move back toward the middle band is becoming more likely.

Under the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo settings of 9,26,52 on the same M15 chart, the short-term bullish impulse is visible in the way price has broken above the Kumo cloud after the data release, with the Tenkan-sen (conversion line) initially pointing steeply upward. However, as AUD/USD consolidates around 0.6565, the Tenkan-sen begins to flatten and the gap between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen widens. That distance between price and the Kijun-sen is a classic sign of overextension; short-term price momentum has outrun its “fair value” equilibrium zone, increasing the probability that price will either move sideways until the Kijun catches up, or pull back toward the Kijun itself, which on M15 is likely clustering around 0.6550. The Kumo ahead is relatively thin, suggesting that if price does rotate lower and re-enters the cloud, support may not be particularly strong, opening the door for a deeper dip toward the lower 0.65s.

The Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) on M15 reinforces this mean-reversion narrative. After the GDP-driven spike, Stoch has pushed decisively into the overbought zone above 80, indicating that recent gains have been fast and concentrated. Now, as price stalls near resistance, the %K line is likely beginning to curl lower and approach a bearish crossover with %D, a pattern that often precedes short-term pullbacks when it happens at or near a key resistance zone.

Entry: 0.65565

Take Profit: 0.6520

Stop Loss: 0.6600

CAD/JPY is pressing into the high part of its yearly envelope, with Bloomberg showing spot around 111.1 and a day range near 111.0–111.7, only a little below the 52-week high at 112.29. That level is expensive historically, especially given how the macro story has shifted against the Canadian side over the past few months. The Bank of Canada has already delivered two consecutive 25 bp cuts, taking its policy rate down to 2.25% on 29 October and explicitly framing the move as a response to weakening growth, soft labor markets and trade-sensitive sectors under pressure. Inflation is hovering near target, but the Bank’s own projections show sub-trend GDP until at least 2027, which makes an aggressive hiking cycle very unlikely and flattens the future carry advantage of CAD.

On the Japanese side, the Bank of Japan already lifted its short-term policy rate to 0.5% in January, the highest in 17 years, and in its latest communications has signaled that another hike to 0.75% is under active discussion even if the most recent proposal was voted down. The important point for CAD/JPY is not that Japan suddenly offers high yield, but that the era of completely free money in JPY is ending, which incrementally reduces the structural incentive to be short yen at any price. At the same time, WTI is trading around 59–59.5 USD/bbl, essentially in a sideways band, after a series of small, choppy sessions rather than a trend breakout.

That means Canada’s terms-of-trade tailwind is neutral rather than booming: oil is not collapsing, but it is also not driving a new leg higher in CAD. When you put this together, you get a cross sitting near its yearly highs while the central bank behind the high-yield leg is cutting and the central bank behind the low-yield leg is talking about further hikes. That is classic asymmetry for a tactical short: the macro story no longer justifies chasing CAD/JPY higher at these levels.

Sentiment around CAD/JPY has quietly shifted from “buy every dip” to “respect the top of the range.” Broad CAD performance in November was helped by a risk-on mood and modest oil resilience, which allowed CAD/JPY to grind up from around 108–109 toward the current 111+ region as investors searched for yield and carry after the Fed started cutting.

However, the marginal flows are no longer purely CAD-positive. Canadian data have confirmed the BoC’s narrative of soft growth, while rate-cut expectations have flattened out near 2.25% with forward curves and BoC commentary both pointing to stability, not to a renewed hiking cycle.

In contrast, positioning in JPY has become more two-sided as traders increasingly respect BoJ and Ministry of Finance rhetoric. The BoJ’s October decision to keep rates at 0.5% was accompanied by a summary of opinions that highlighted a growing faction favoring another hike, while recent remarks from Governor Ueda have “rattled global bond markets” by explicitly raising the prospect of a move as early as this month.

In such a “cautiously optimistic” regime, investors are willing to hold carry trades like CAD/JPY, but they also become more sensitive to valuation and policy asymmetries. The result is a sentiment mix that favors fading CAD/JPY into rich levels rather than blindly adding longs near the top of its yearly range, particularly when the central bank behind the quote currency (BoJ) may be the next mover.

On the M15 timeframe, CAD/JPY looks less like a clean up-trend and more like a market distributing near resistance. Recent intraday data show spot oscillating in a relatively tight band around 111.1, with repeated pushes into the 111.5–111.7 area failing to hold.

Using Bollinger Bands set to 20,0,2, price has shifted from hugging the upper band during November’s climb to repeatedly mean-reverting to and even slightly under the 20-period mid-line. The upper band in the 111.6–111.8 zone is no longer acting as a magnet; instead, each approach is followed by swift rejection back toward the mid-line. That transition from upper-band walk to mid-line rejection is usually the first technical sign that buying pressure is exhausting and that the path of least resistance is starting to tilt lower.

The Ichimoku profile with 9,26,52 parameters reinforces this idea. Earlier in the move, price lived comfortably above the M15 Kumo, with Tenkan consistently above Kijun and the forward cloud sloping higher. More recently, however, candles have begun to probe into the top of the cloud, and in some sequences to close inside it, with the Kumo flattening around the 111.0–111.2 region.

The Tenkan line has slipped back toward or even below Kijun on minor rebounds, indicating that short-term momentum is no longer in sync with the prior trend. When price oscillates around a flat cloud top near a long-term resistance zone, it often signals a distribution phase where large players gradually unwind longs rather than a fresh markup phase.

Stochastic (5,3,3) on M15 adds the timing element for a short. After several overbought readings above 80 during the earlier grind higher, %K has been rolling over from the 60–70 band, repeatedly crossing below %D without managing to reset to oversold before bouncing again. This kind of “tired oscillator” behavior lower highs in Stoch while price struggles to make new highs is a classic early divergence. The ideal tactical entry for a sell comes when %K turns down from the mid-range (around 50–60) as price retests the Bollinger mid-line or the underside of the recent local high, with the Kumo top just below acting as the first objective. Given that the upper band and prior spike highs cluster around 111.6–111.7, while the cloud base and prior support sit closer to 110.7–110.8, the risk-reward for a short from near the top of this micro-range is attractive as long as price fails to make a clean, high-volume break above 112.0.

Entry: 111.50

TP: 110.80

SL: 112.10

Ethereum's price has fallen below US$2,800, triggering a significant surge in speculative trading. BitMine Immersion, a key fund management firm focused on Ethereum, continues to actively accumulate the cryptocurrency, adding US$83 million worth of Ethereum to its holdings. Notable figures like Tom Lee of BitMine Immersion and Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant have highlighted institutional investor interest, noting that Ethereum is undervalued according to multiple valuation models.

Despite the price decline, it triggered a wave of buying activity. Speculators increased their positions, adding US$654 million in bets. On-chain data indicates that market leverage has been reset, reducing downside risk in the Ethereum futures market.

As prices remain under pressure, financial markets are sending mixed signals, yet there are also signs of potential stabilization emerging. These include robust on-chain fundamentals and growing developer activity, both of which underpin Ethereum's valuation.

Past price corrections of a similar nature have triggered leverage resets followed by phases of increased institutional buying. Historical data indicates that such maneuvers often precede bull markets, signaling potential future trends.

However, the technical outlook is not particularly optimistic. The Ethereum price rebound that began at US$2,620 saw bulls push the price above US$3,000 before encountering resistance.

In the 1D timeframe, prices remain well below the 100-day SMA. Bears have defended the US$3,050 resistance level, with prices failing to even test the 50% retracement of the decline from the US$3,655 high to the US$2,616 low. The current price action indicates increasing bearish pressure. Should a rebound occur, prices may encounter resistance near the US$3,000 level.

The next major resistance level is near US$3,050. Currently, key resistance is forming around the US$3,250 area and the trendline. If the daily closing price breaks above the US$3,250 resistance zone, it could trigger a new round of steady gains. In this scenario, prices may rise toward the US$3,500 level.

On the downside, as the head-and-shoulders top pattern continues to play out, the bearish targets remain intact. Key support lies near US$2,500, and a break below this level could see prices test US$2,350. Should prices decline further, a drop to US$2,200 becomes possible.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3000

Target Price: 1959

Stop Loss: 3250

Valid Until: December 22, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 2720, 2620, 2529

Resistance: 2935, 3105, 3245