NZD/USD Climbs as Weak Dollar and RBNZ Rate Hike Bets Boost Kiwi

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

NZD/USD climbed toward 0.5970 on Friday as investors shifted focus toward a potentially softer US Nonfarm Payrolls report, while easing Oil prices and resilient New Zealand labor data continued to support the Kiwi.

BUY NZDUSD

EXP

TRADING

0.59499

Entry Price

0.60600

0.58900

0.59646 +0.00276 +0.46%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.58900

Exit Price

0.59499

Entry Price

0.60600

The New Zealand Dollar extended gains against the US Dollar on Friday, with NZD/USD rising toward the 0.5970 level after rebounding from earlier lows near 0.5930. The move higher comes as the Greenback weakens ahead of the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could play a key role in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy over the coming months.

Markets expect the US economy to have added around 62,000 jobs in April, sharply lower than the 178,000 recorded in March. A weaker reading could reinforce concerns that the US labor market is beginning to slow, potentially undermining the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance following last week’s policy meeting. While the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, several policymakers reportedly pushed for the removal of the central bank’s long-standing easing bias, signaling concern over persistent inflation risks.

In my view, Friday’s jobs report carries significant downside risk for the US Dollar. Any signs of softer employment conditions could trigger renewed selling pressure on the Greenback, particularly after recent gains driven by elevated Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions.

On the geopolitical front, tensions between the United States and Iran remain elevated after reports of renewed exchanges of fire on Thursday. However, US President Donald Trump attempted to calm markets by insisting the ceasefire remains intact and urging Tehran to finalize a broader peace agreement.

Oil prices rebounded modestly following the developments but remain well below last week’s highs. West Texas Intermediate crude trades near $91 per barrel, while Brent crude remains below the key $100 level. This decline in energy prices is providing some relief for the New Zealand economy, which is heavily reliant on imported fuel.

Domestic data from New Zealand has also continued to support the Kiwi. Earlier this week, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5.3% in the first quarter, while labor costs rose more than expected, reinforcing speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could maintain a hawkish stance or even consider further tightening if inflation pressures persist.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD is maintaining a constructive bullish structure on the 4-hour chart after staging an aggressive breakout from the broader consolidation range that dominated price action throughout April. The pair surged sharply through the key 0.5920 resistance zone earlier this week, transforming former resistance into a new layer of short-term support. Although prices have eased slightly from recent highs near 0.5985, the pullback remains shallow and appears more consistent with consolidation rather than a reversal of the broader upward trend.

The recent bullish impulse has significantly improved near-term market structure, with buyers continuing to defend dips above the 0.5920–0.5930 region. This area now represents the first major support zone and is likely to determine whether bullish momentum can remain intact. As long as NZD/USD continues to hold above this breakout region, the broader upside bias remains firmly supported.

The chart also suggests the pair is forming a bullish continuation pattern following the sharp rally from the 0.5860 support area. The current consolidation beneath 0.6000 reflects temporary profit-taking after an impulsive move higher rather than evidence of exhaustion. In my view, this type of price behavior often precedes another leg higher, particularly when the broader trend structure remains supported by higher lows and sustained buying pressure.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located near the 0.5980–0.6000 psychological zone, where the latest rally stalled. A decisive break above this barrier would likely trigger fresh momentum buying and expose the next major upside target around 0.6060–0.6080, a region that coincides with a longer-term resistance zone visible on the chart. A sustained move through that level would reinforce the broader bullish outlook and potentially open the door toward the 0.6100 handle.

On the downside, failure to hold above 0.5920 would weaken immediate bullish momentum and could trigger a deeper retracement toward the 0.5860 support region, which previously acted as a major pivot area throughout the broader consolidation phase. A sustained break below 0.5860 would represent a more meaningful deterioration in market structure and shift focus back toward the 0.5800 psychological support zone. Beneath that, bearish pressure could accelerate toward 0.5760, where buyers previously re-emerged aggressively.

Momentum conditions continue to favor the upside despite signs of near-term cooling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) likely remains above the neutral 50 threshold after briefly entering overbought territory during the recent breakout rally. This suggests bullish momentum remains dominant, even as short-term traders lock in profits near resistance. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) likely remains in positive territory, although the histogram appears to be flattening slightly, reflecting slowing momentum after the sharp advance. This combination typically signals consolidation within an ongoing uptrend rather than an outright bearish reversal.

Overall, the broader technical structure continues to favor buyers while NZD/USD holds above the 0.5920 breakout zone. The current pause appears corrective in nature, and bulls remain positioned for another attempt toward the 0.6000–0.6080 region if support levels continue to hold.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY NZD/USD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.5950

STOP LOSS: 0.5890

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6060

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NZD/USD Climbs as Weak Dollar and RBNZ Rate Hike Bets Boost Kiwi

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