The Trump-Putin meeting was held on August 15th in Alaska, with the two sides focusing on the Ukraine war. The talks lasted nearly three hours but did not result in a ceasefire agreement or any concrete documents. After the meeting, Trump gave an interview to U.S. media outlet Fox News, sharing some additional insights: he described the meeting as generally smooth, giving it a perfect score of 10, and noted that the two sides largely agreed on most issues. However, he also remained cautious about the outlook (There's no deal until there's a deal.). Moving forward, Trump expressed willingness to coordinate follow-up trilateral talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine. Overall, this summit was more of an "exploratory diplomacy" effort; while it did not yield any substantial breakthroughs, it left room for future negotiations. Given the high expectations but low deliverables of this meeting, its impact on the euro's movement next week is expected to be limited. The judgment on the Russia-Ukraine peace talks remains that "complex problems have no simple solutions." Continued attention is needed on developments, and only if the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine can form a ceasefire framework might the euro see a more substantial rebound.

On Tuesday, the U.S. July CPI data showed clear signs of upward momentum in service sector inflation, but the impact of tariffs on prices was weaker than in June. Month-over-month, price increases in furniture, apparel, recreational goods, and healthcare commodities cooled significantly compared to June, leading markets to bet on a more aggressive rate cut in September. However, Thursday's July PPI data significantly exceeded market expectations. High inflation in trade services indicates that tariffs have already prompted businesses to raise prices. Meanwhile, jobless claims showed no significant deterioration in the labor market, pushing rate-cut expectations back to within 25 basis points. On Friday, import prices unexpectedly rose month-over-month, and retail sales data performed decently. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was weak, but inflation expectations exceeded forecasts. Overall, the impact of tariffs on inflation is still unfolding. For the week, market pricing for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September dropped to 85%. Nevertheless, the U.S. dollar index slowly declined before the U.S.-Russia talks, closing the week slightly down 0.43% at 97.85. During this period, the U.S. government continued to push for rate cuts, with Bessent even suggesting a 50-basis-point cut in September. However, based on the statements of most Fed officials, the probability of a 50-basis-point cut remains low. Some officials noted that whether a 25-basis-point cut in September is possible still depends on subsequent data. Therefore, the downside potential for the dollar from rate-cut trades will be limited. In the absence of new information, the U.S. dollar index is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern.

On the weekly chart, the MACD line and the signal line form a death cross at high levels, and the RSI highs are gradually declining, a bearish divergence signal. This suggests that short-term momentum is likely to be range-bound or bearish. Currently, the price is supported by the weekly EMA12. If this support holds, the uptrend may continue. If it breaks, the next support levels could be the Bollinger middle band and EMA50, around 1.134 and 1.116, respectively. Based on the 4H chart, the Bollinger Bands are starting to contract, and moving averages are flattening, indicating an impending trend change. The price has not made new highs recently, and a large bearish candle emerged, while the MACD bullish momentum is gradually weakening. The RSI is at the neutral 50 level with declining highs, which is another bearish divergence signal. A subsequent decline is highly probable. With both weekly and four-hour charts signaling potential downside, selling at highs is preferred in the near term.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1684

Target price: 1.14

Stop loss: 1.183

Support: 1.159/1.145/1.4

Resistance: 1.183/1.19/1.2