New Record High! Will Gold Reach $5000 Next Month?

Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Economic

Summary:

Concerns over the prolonged shutdown of the U.S. government are intensifying, which is putting pressure on the U.S. dollar and supporting the prices of commodities priced in dollars.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4279.27

Entry Price

5000.00

4000.00

4209.56 +11.65 +0.28%

842.1

Pips

Profit

4000.00

4363.48

Exit Price

4279.27

Entry Price

5000.00

Fundamentals

Concerns over the prolonged government shutdown in the U.S., growing expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed, and the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have all supported gold prices. Traders will closely monitor the Fed's speech later this Friday for new market direction. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington is considering severing parts of its trade relations with China after both countries started imposing additional port fees on cargo vessels. On the other hand, easing geopolitical risk concerns could weaken safe-haven assets such as gold. According to Bloomberg, Trump said on Thursday evening that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold another summit to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. The day before, Trump had talks scheduled with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Meanwhile, concerns about the prolonged U.S. government shutdown are growing, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar and supporting the prices of commodities priced in dollars. With the Senate failing to advance legislation to restore funding, the federal government shutdown has entered its third week. U.S. Treasury officials have stated that the shutdown could result in up to $15 billion in weekly output losses for the U.S. economy. Expectations of rate cuts by the Fed have further fueled this trend. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the significant slowdown in hiring presents an increasing risk to the U.S. economy, hinting that the Fed may cut rates two more times this year. Additionally, Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed his support for another rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting later this month, given the mixed conditions in the labor market. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus supporting this non-yielding precious metal.

Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading with the Bollinger Bands opening upwards, and the moving averages are diverging upwards. The price is oscillating upwards along the EMA12 and the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD has formed a "Golden Cross." The bullish momentum remains strong without any significant signs of weakening. The RSI is at 76, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market. However, the RSI is forming an M-top, suggesting that while the price is still rising in the short term, a pullback is possible at any time. As long as the price does not fall below the EMA12, there is a high probability of it rising to 4400.

On the daily chart, the price is oscillating upwards along the upper Bollinger Band. After the MACD golden cross, there has been no sign of weakening bullish momentum. The RSI is at 87, entering the overbought zone, which suggests a higher likelihood of short-term correction. However, as long as gold does not fall below the EMA12, the upward trend remains intact. The strategy recommends a "short then long" approach, with a focus on buying on dips.

New Record High! Will Gold Reach $5000 Next Month?_1

New Record High! Will Gold Reach $5000 Next Month?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 4280

Target Price: 5000

Stop Loss: 4000

Support: 4100/4000/3800

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Economic

Summary:

The market currently expects a 44% probability of a Bank of England rate cut in December, with the first rate reduction not likely until March 2026.

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.34500

Entry Price

1.29000

1.37300

1.33141 -0.00171 -0.13%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.29000

1.34307

Exit Price

1.34500

Entry Price

1.37300

Fundamentals

UK economic data showed that GDP in August edged up by 0.1% MoM, slightly better than the revised -0.1% in July. In the three months to August, growth rose modestly to 0.3%, mainly supported by public health services, while consumer-facing sectors contracted. Although the IMF projects that the UK could become the second-fastest growing G7 economy by 2025, the average annual growth rate of 1.3% remains insufficient to ease fiscal pressures.

Economists noted that the economy is currently in a “pre-budget lull,” expecting third-quarter growth to reach only about half of the BoE’s forecast. The impact of the US trade war has yet to fully manifest, while elevated domestic budget uncertainty continues to suppress household and business spending intentions. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she hopes to build greater fiscal headroom in the November budget but acknowledged the need for “difficult trade-offs” between raising taxes and cutting public services. She ruled out introducing a new wealth tax but did not exclude raising the bank levy, stressing that all companies should pay their “fair share” of taxes. The BoE has maintained its policy rate at 4%, aiming to balance inflation control and economic support. Market views on UK monetary policy remain divided: Some central bank officials warn of a potential “bumpy landing” for the economy; Others argue that a possible rebound in inflation could delay the pace of rate cuts. The market currently prices in a 44% chance of a BoE rate cut in December, with the first cut expected no earlier than March 2026.

The Fed’s Beige Book, released on October 15, showed that recent US economic activity was broadly flat, while the labor market remained stable but showed signs of softening, including increased layoffs and reduced spending by middle- and low-income households. The report noted that most regions’ employers are cutting staff through layoffs or attrition, driven by weak demand, rising uncertainty, and shifting investment toward AI-related technologies. Meanwhile, tighter immigration policies have constrained labor supply in industries such as hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing. Overall consumer spending showed a “slight decline,” particularly in retail goods. Regional disparities remain evident—low- and middle-income households are more price-sensitive, with reports of increased food aid usage, growing dependence on “buy now, pay later” services, and worsening credit card delinquencies.

Some respondents described the current economic climate as a “middle-class recession.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell has continued to warn about downside risks in the US labor market. The probability of a Fed rate cut in October now stands at 98%, which has weighed on the dollar. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s statement that “the United States is in a full-scale trade conflict with Asian countries” further undermined market confidence in the greenback.

Technical Analysis

On the weekly chart, GBPUSD has found support near the lower Bollinger band after breaking below both the middle band and the EMA12. The RSI at 54 signals a neutral market sentiment, while the MACD lines are pulling back toward the zero axis, indicating that the correction is not yet complete. If the price falls below the lower Bollinger band, it could revisit previous lows and the EMA200, located at 1.314 and 1.29, respectively.

On the daily chart, the Bollinger bands are widening downward, and the price is fluctuating near the middle band. If it breaks and holds above that level, an uptrend could resume; otherwise, it may retest 1.32. After forming a bullish crossover, the MACD lines are retracing toward the zero axis, and the RSI at 53 reflects strong indecision. Upside resistance lies at the previous high and the upper Bollinger band—1.352 and 1.363 respectively.

Therefore, selling on rallies remains the preferred approach.

GBPUSD: Strong Rebound — Has the Bull-Bear Shift Completed?_1

GBPUSD: Strong Rebound — Has the Bull-Bear Shift Completed?_2

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.345

Target Price: 1.29

Stop Loss: 1.373

Support: 1.32 / 1.30 / 1.29

Resistance Levels: 1.36 / 1.373 / 1.40

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On 17/10/2025 (GMT+7), USD/CHF traded near 0.794 after the US Dollar Index slipped into the 98.3–98.7 range and Fed speakers signaled support for another quarter-point cut on October 29, while the SNB maintains a zero policy rate amid low inflation...

SELL USDCHF

EXP

EXPIRED

0.79800

Entry Price

0.78900

0.80150

0.80564 +0.00109 +0.14%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.78900

0.79330

Exit Price

0.79800

Entry Price

0.80150

Overview

The pair remains heavy with spot hovering around 0.793–0.795 in Asia as the dollar’s broader tone weakens and rate-differential expectations tilt modestly against the greenback.

DXY’s close in the high-98s reinforces a lower-high sequence since early October, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s latest remarks back a cautious 25 bp cut later this month, keeping the policy narrative dollar-negative at the margin.

On the Swiss side, the SNB’s zero policy rate and subdued inflation profile limit CHF downside risk from policy surprises, helping cap USD/CHF rallies below the 0.8000 round figure.

Market sentiment

Risk sentiment is mixed but not panicked, with the VIX closing around 20.6 on 15/10, a level that restrains aggressive USD short-covering. The policy asymmetry is doing more work than pure risk appetite: US officials are openly debating the pace of additional easing, whereas the SNB’s communication remains steady around price stability with rates at 0%.

That combination has encouraged traders to fade dollar upticks against low-beta currencies like the franc while DXY holds below 99.

Technical analysis

The intraday structure points lower.

Price is spending more time along the lower Bollinger band, and bounces are stalling near the mid-band (20-period mean) around the high-0.79s, preserving a sequence of lower highs beneath 0.8000.

On Ichimoku, spot is tracking at or below the Kumo with Tenkan below Kijun; the cloud overhead between roughly 0.7970–0.7990 acts as dynamic resistance on M15. Stoch (5/3/3) is emerging from overbought after shallow pullbacks, a configuration that often precedes renewed pushes toward the lower band if the mid-band rejects price.

Immediate resistance sits at 0.7990–0.8000; a clean acceptance above that zone would neutralize the short bias. First support is 0.7900, ahead of 0.7860–0.7875 where recent daily lows clustered. Real-time dashboards show USD/CHF around 0.794, consistent with this sell-the-rally framework.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 0.7980

TP: 0.7890

SL: 0.8015

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On 17/10/2025 (GMT+7), EUR/USD firmed into the 1.1680s as the US Dollar Index hovered in the 98.3–98.7 zone and recent ECB remarks leaned toward holding rates unless new shocks emerge...

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16920

Entry Price

1.17650

1.16280

1.16482 +0.00056 +0.05%

42.3

Pips

Loss

1.16280

1.16497

Exit Price

1.16920

Entry Price

1.17650

Overview

Through the Asia morning, spot clustered around 1.1665–1.1695 after Wednesday’s rise and the ECB’s daily reference near 1.1649 on 16/10. The macro mix is straightforward: the dollar has slipped to the high-98s on the DXY, while multiple ECB voices Kocher and Dolenc most recently framed current rates as appropriate and cautioned against extra easing unless fresh shocks arrive.

That steadier euro-rate narrative prevents the EUR-USD differential from deteriorating further just as the greenback loses some altitude. Intraday dashboards show today’s EUR/USD range roughly 1.1642–1.1694, aligning with a buy-on-dips bias into the 1.1650s as long as the dollar fails to reclaim 99.0 on a closing basis.

Market sentiment

Positioning is cautiously risk-on for the euro and mildly risk-off for the dollar. VIX closed at 20.64 on 15/10, a level that tempers exuberance but is not high enough to force wholesale deleveraging, which helps trend-following EUR/USD bids on shallow pullbacks.

Commentary from ECB Governing Council members over the past week has reinforced a “wait-and-see” stance, so the burden of surprise sits more with the US side via data and Fed-path repricing; that asymmetry has coincided with EUR/USD reclaiming and holding the 1.16 handle for a second straight day.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD extends into the 1.1680s as the dollar eases_1

Price is spending more time above the Bollinger mid-line than below and continues to test the upper band on pushes into 1.168x–1.1700, a pattern consistent with trend continuation if pullbacks hold the 20-period mean.

On Ichimoku, price has rotated above the cloud with Tenkan riding at or just above Kijun; the M15 Kumo now acts as dynamic support in the 1.1660–1.1650 area.

Stochastic is cycling higher from mid-range, with a %K cross above %D out of the 40–50 zone typically preceding a fresh upper-band probe. Immediate resistance is the 1.1700 round figure; a sustained break invites 1.1760–1.1780 where prior swing highs cluster. Today’s recorded day range around 1.1642–1.1694 corroborates these intraday levels.

Trade Recomendation

Entry: 1.1692

TP: 1.1765

SL: 1.1628

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

ETH reclaims key fibonacci support post-flash-crash, but technical setup remains bearish-biased.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

4038.80

Entry Price

4500.00

3500.00

3136.39 +109.43 +3.62%

1212.5

Pips

Profit

3500.00

4160.05

Exit Price

4038.80

Entry Price

4500.00

Fundamentals

On the 4-hour chart, ETH is changing hands at around $4,052, having regained the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest swing-low ($3,909) after a brief violation. The sharp bounce from sub-$3,500 levels underscores aggressive bid interest inside the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci cluster, yet the overall structure still lacks a higher-high sequence, leaving the short-term trend vulnerable.

Meanwhile, despite the short-term uncertainty introduced by recent ETH price swings, the overall structure signals a bullish revival within the medium-term uptrend. The MA50 currently sits at $4,325, acting as a dynamic resistance, while the MA200 near $3,162 provides a robust long-term support base. With the MA50 still trading above the MA200, the trend remains constructive even as Ethereum probes key resistance.

However, with the RSI printing 43.95, the market is rotating out of mild oversold territory—a reading that historically flags the onset of a recovery leg and is typically accompanied by supportive price action.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has ticked back to +0.15, signaling renewed inflows after a brief spell of distribution. A positive CMF denotes strengthening aggregate buying pressure, in line with spot ETH's ability to hold ground above the $4,000 handle.

On the ETH-spot-ETF front, Thursday saw a measured inflow of $238m, snapping a three-session streak of outflows.

Bulls Regain Their Stance, but Upside Likely Capped_1

Technical Analysis

After a volatile phase that saw ETH probe support below $3,500, Ethereum has now stabilized. With bulls regaining conviction, the first upside target sits at $4,500. A sustained bid could reopen the $4,600–$4,900 supply zone, offering over 15% upside from the current print. A daily close back above the MA50 would validate continuation of the broader bullish structure.

Yet the recent bounce originated from a technical level that was already violated, capping the move's reach in the short term. Simultaneously, a bearish cross is about to trigger on the weekly timeframe—the last two occurrences preceded draw-downs of 43% and 61%, flagging a non-trivial probability of deeper retracement.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 3970

Target Price: 4500

Stop Loss: 3500

Valid Until: October 31, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3893/3647/3435

Resistance: 4089/4217/4295

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The euro continues to strengthen for a third straight session, lifted by a softer U.S. dollar as escalating U.S.–China trade tensions and political developments in Europe fuel investor caution ahead of key speeches from Fed and ECB officials.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16601

Entry Price

1.17500

1.16000

1.16482 +0.00056 +0.05%

15.3

Pips

Profit

1.16000

1.16754

Exit Price

1.16601

Entry Price

1.17500

The EUR/USD pair extended its upward trajectory for the third consecutive day on Thursday, trading near 1.1645 as investors sold the dollar amid renewed fears of a deepening trade rift between Washington and Beijing. The currency pair has been supported by a combination of growing optimism around Europe’s political stability and fading conviction in the U.S. dollar’s short-term resilience. Market participants are now turning their focus toward a series of speeches from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, which could provide critical clues on the monetary policy outlook on both sides of the Atlantic.

The greenback’s weakness has been evident across the board in recent sessions, as escalating geopolitical and trade tensions have dented investor confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. Renewed friction between the U.S. and China, coupled with signs of slowing inflation and a cooling labor market, has strengthened market speculation that the Federal Reserve may have to adopt a more dovish tone in the months ahead. This narrative has kept the euro in demand, with traders increasingly betting on relative stability within the eurozone despite lingering fiscal and structural challenges.

In France, political drama briefly captured investors’ attention after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu unexpectedly survived a second and final no-confidence vote in parliament on Thursday. The motion, spearheaded by far-right leader Marine Le Pen, secured only 144 votes, far short of the 289 required to topple the government. The left-wing La France Insoumise party’s refusal to side with the far right effectively spared Lecornu, allowing him to maintain power for now.

Lecornu’s decision to abandon President Emmanuel Macron’s contentious pension reform plan appears to have been a decisive factor in securing enough support to survive the vote. Still, his government faces an uphill battle to pass a fiscally conservative budget in a deeply divided parliament. The survival of Lecornu’s administration, even temporarily, has offered some degree of political continuity that markets often reward, particularly given the growing sense of instability across several Western economies. For the euro, this has removed a near-term source of uncertainty and contributed to the currency’s modest upward bias.

Across the Atlantic, tensions between the United States and China intensified after President Donald Trump stated in a televised interview that the U.S. is already “in a trade war with China.” The remark was widely interpreted as an escalation of rhetoric that could undermine investor sentiment and global trade prospects. The situation worsened further after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent referred to China’s chief trade negotiator as an “unhinged wolf,” a comment that fueled concerns about the breakdown of diplomatic channels. While such remarks rattled markets, traders are cautiously optimistic that next week’s Trump–Xi summit could ease tensions and provide a framework for renewed dialogue.

Nonetheless, the damage to the dollar’s image as a safe-haven currency appears to be taking hold. The renewed volatility has left the greenback vulnerable, with investors reluctant to extend long positions ahead of any concrete developments in trade talks. Meanwhile, a softer tone from recent U.S. economic data has reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve could be forced to adopt a less aggressive stance, further eroding the dollar’s relative advantage.

In contrast, the eurozone has maintained a steadier policy footing. Although growth across the bloc remains uneven, signs of gradual stabilization—particularly in services and consumer sentiment—have underpinned the euro’s recent resilience. Traders now await Christine Lagarde’s remarks later in the day, as any indication of a more confident ECB could further solidify the euro’s position against the dollar.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD has displayed a steady recovery since rebounding from its recent lows near 1.1600. The pair is now testing the 1.1650 resistance area, a level that has acted as a key barrier in recent sessions. The fact that the price continues to trade above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) underscores ongoing bullish momentum, reinforced by the presence of a double-bottom formation on the short-term chart—typically a bullish reversal signal.

Recent intraday movements suggest some consolidation as traders lock in profits, allowing overbought conditions on the relative strength indicators to ease. This short-term correction phase could offer the pair a chance to build additional upside momentum if 1.1600 continues to act as a reliable support zone. A clear break above 1.1650 would likely trigger further gains toward 1.1750, while a close below 1.1600 would suggest the rally is losing steam and could invite a deeper pullback.

The broader technical bias remains constructive, given the pair’s sustained trade above dynamic support levels. As long as the euro maintains its foothold above the 1.1600 area, the structure favors continued recovery, aligning with the view that the market is gradually shifting away from the dollar in favor of alternative majors.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1660

STOP LOSS: 1.1600

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1750

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Pound climbs to 1.3440 after upbeat UK GDP data and a weakening U.S. Dollar, pressured by dovish Fed expectations and renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. Technicals suggest further gains toward 1.3470–1.3550 if support at 1.3400 holds.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.34394

Entry Price

1.35500

1.33700

1.33141 -0.00171 -0.13%

69.4

Pips

Loss

1.33700

1.33699

Exit Price

1.34394

Entry Price

1.35500

The British Pound extended its advance against the U.S. Dollar on Wednesday, with the GBP/USD pair climbing near 1.3440 after the release of stronger-than-expected UK GDP data. The move marks another step in the Pound’s recent recovery, as investors rotate back into Sterling amid improving domestic fundamentals and a weakening Greenback weighed down by shifting Federal Reserve expectations and escalating trade tensions with China.

At the time of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades near a fresh weekly low around 98.40. The decline in the DXY underscores a broader retreat in dollar demand, driven by a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve is nearing a more aggressive phase of monetary easing.

The Greenback has faced sustained selling pressure this week as traders ramp up bets that the Federal Reserve will deliver additional rate cuts before year-end. Recent economic indicators — including soft job growth and slowing wage gains — have added to concerns that the U.S. labor market may be losing steam, increasing the likelihood that policymakers will act decisively to cushion the economy from further weakness.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a 94.6% probability that the Fed will lower rates by 50 basis points, bringing the target range down to 3.50%-3.75% before the end of 2025. This marks a sharp shift in sentiment from just a month ago, when investors expected the Fed to maintain a cautious stance amid mixed inflation data.

Adding to dovish sentiment, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman openly backed the case for further easing. “I continue to see two more cuts before the end of this year,” Bowman said on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Her remarks underscore a growing divide within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with several members now emphasizing the downside risks to employment over persistent inflationary pressures.

Investors have interpreted these comments as confirmation that the Fed’s next move will favor growth over price stability — a stance that historically tends to weaken the dollar and support risk-sensitive currencies like the Pound.

The Pound’s rally has also been underpinned by encouraging UK GDP data, which showed that the economy expanded modestly despite ongoing headwinds from high energy costs and global uncertainty. The data reinforced the view that Britain’s economy is holding up better than expected, providing the Bank of England with some breathing room even as it navigates its own path toward lower rates.

While the BoE has signaled it may ease policy later this year, markets remain confident that any UK rate cuts will lag behind those of the Fed, helping maintain the relative attractiveness of Sterling. Analysts note that as long as UK data remains resilient, the Pound is likely to continue outperforming the dollar in the near term.

“The UK’s better-than-feared GDP performance is giving Sterling a tailwind,” said one London-based strategist. “The narrative is shifting from recession concerns to relative resilience, and that’s a powerful backdrop when the dollar is under pressure.”

Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical developments have also played a significant role in dampening dollar sentiment. U.S.-China trade tensions resurfaced this week after President Donald Trump threatened to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, reigniting fears of a renewed trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

In a move that further complicated global market dynamics, Trump also signaled his intention to pressure Beijing into halting purchases of Russian oil — a position that analysts say risks driving a deeper wedge between Washington and Beijing.

While the tariff measures are expected to take effect in early November, market participants are cautiously optimistic that tensions may ease following a planned meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea. Nonetheless, the uncertainty surrounding trade policy continues to undermine confidence in the dollar as investors seek safer alternatives or currencies with stronger growth outlooks.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair has extended its upward trajectory after clearing key resistance levels. The pair’s recent move above the 1.3400 threshold was reinforced by a breakout from its short-term bullish trendline and a decisive push beyond the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50).

Momentum indicators, particularly the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have turned positive after cooling off from overbought conditions in prior sessions, suggesting that the latest upswing is supported by renewed buying interest rather than speculative positioning.

A sustained hold above 1.3400 could open the door for further gains toward 1.3470 and 1.3550 in the coming sessions. Consider buying on minor pullbacks toward the 1.3400 zone, with tight stops below 1.3370 to manage downside risk.