Momentum Fades as Bitcoin Struggles to Break Out

Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

A deeper correction would likely require a decisive break below that level, potentially accelerating the bearish move.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

109489.4

Entry Price

107500.0

111000.0

91562.3 +2007.5 +2.24%

1510.6

Pips

Loss

107500.0

111035.2

Exit Price

109489.4

Entry Price

111000.0

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has once again made history by surpassing 700,000 BTC under management—an impressive milestone achieved just 18 months after its launch. According to the fund’s official website, IBIT held 698,919 BTC as of July 3. Following net inflows of approximately 1,510 BTC on July 7, it officially crossed the 700K threshold—right after the U.S. Independence Day holiday—according to data from Coinglass.

Launched in January 2024 after receiving landmark regulatory approval, IBIT has since grown into the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF. It is now BlackRock’s third-highest revenue-generating ETF out of the 1,197 funds it manages and is only $9 billion away from becoming the firm’s top performer, as highlighted by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. The fund had previously earned the distinction of being the fastest-growing ETF globally.

Meanwhile, Japan-based Metaplanet continues to execute its bold Bitcoin treasury strategy. The Tokyo-listed hospitality company, which began accumulating BTC in April 2024, has now amassed 15,555 BTC—making it the fifth-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally. CEO Simon Gerovich, in a recent Financial Times interview, stated that Metaplanet is committed to acquiring as much BTC as possible before entering its next phase of growth.

Gerovich described the current moment as a “Bitcoin gold rush” and suggested that the firm could later leverage its BTC holdings as collateral to finance acquisitions of cash-generating businesses. He emphasized the importance of reaching a point of “escape velocity” in Bitcoin accumulation, where competitors would struggle to catch up.

In a similar move, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced a $4.2 billion offering of Series A perpetual preferred shares (STRD) with a 10% yield. The funds raised will be used to expand their Bitcoin reserves, support operational liquidity, and pay dividends on existing preferred shares such as STRK and STRF. The announcement was made during a presentation led by CEO Phong Lee and Saylor himself. Momentum Fades as Bitcoin Struggles to Break Out_1

Momentum Fades as Bitcoin Struggles to Break Out_1

Technical Analysis

BTC/USD lost upward momentum after approaching the 109,700 resistance area for the second time, failing to post a new higher high. This inability to break through a key resistance level increases the likelihood of a short-term bearish correction.

Should Bitcoin close below the 9-period moving average on the 1-hour chart, the market may begin pulling back toward the next local support at 107,400—a zone that has previously acted as a reliable floor. A deeper correction would likely require a decisive break below that level, potentially accelerating the bearish move.

The RSI is currently hovering near 56, sitting slightly above neutral territory. It has struggled to break above the 63 level, suggesting that bullish momentum may be fading. If the RSI continues to stall while price action remains below 109,700, a pullback could become more probable.

However, a decisive break above 109,700 could open the door for a renewed bullish push toward the recent high of 110,500 set on July 3. Until then, price action appears indecisive, and the burden is on the bulls to reassert control.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 109500

Target price: 107500

Stop loss: 111000

Validity: Jul 18, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices continued to decline on Thursday after falling below US$3,300 on Wednesday. The downward pressure stemmed from the Federal Reserve's cautious stance and rising bond yields, which partially offset market concerns about escalating trade tensions.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3314.58

Entry Price

3389.00

3275.00

4215.48 +17.57 +0.42%

744.2

Pips

Profit

3275.00

3389.03

Exit Price

3314.58

Entry Price

3389.00

Fundamentals

U.S. President Trump has denied further delays to the August 1 tariff increases, announcing more aggressive measures. These include a 50% tariff on copper imports, a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, and a 10% tariff on BRICS nations' goods.

A neutral outlook on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve is another key factor weighing on gold prices. Last week's strong U.S. jobs report eased concerns about an economic slowdown, reducing expectations for upcoming monetary easing.

New tariffs may exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S., potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's scope for future rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the surge in U.S. Treasury yields is also pressuring gold prices, as investors have already factored in the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that market participants anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 48 basis points in 2025.

MARKET WATCH: Given the current economic climate, the global landscape is shifting from a U.S.-led order to a multi-polar world. This transition is expected to generate persistent inflationary pressures, elevated interest rates, a weaker US dollar, and increased demand for safe-haven assets over the next five to ten years.

Since the pandemic, the U.S. core inflation rate has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for five years. Increased defense spending and tariff policies under the Trump administration are likely to keep inflation above the Fed's target for the remainder of this decade, potentially driving up gold prices.

Investors are awaiting the release of the June FOMC meeting minutes later today for further insights into the central bank's policy direction.

Gold Faces Resistance at the Head and Shoulders Top Pattern. Exercise Patience before Going Long as Short-term Correction Is Ongoing_1

Technical Analysis

Gold prices have declined since the beginning of the week due to macroeconomic factors. The price action has broken down from a 4-hour head and shoulders bottom pattern, instead of continuing the larger uptrend, and has broken lower via a 1-hour head and shoulders top pattern, forming a short-term downtrend.

The market is currently dominated by a 1-hour head and shoulders top pattern, indicating that the downward trend is not yet complete. The downside target is below US$3280; therefore, long positions should be approached cautiously, with a focus on strategic positioning.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3275

Target Price: 3389

Stop Loss: 3235

Valid Until: July 24, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3279, 3273, 3252

Resistance: 3308, 3332, 3346

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Summary:

The UK bond market's volatility eased following the Labour government's concessions on welfare reform, with the 10-year gilt yield decreasing from 4.36% to 4.22%. However, the British pound remains under pressure. The current exchange rate approaches a key demand zone, potentially offering a medium-term entry point for bulls.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.34994

Entry Price

1.38130

1.32900

1.33323 +0.00011 +0.01%

34.3

Pips

Profit

1.32900

1.35337

Exit Price

1.34994

Entry Price

1.38130

Fundamentals

The UK market is currently focused on the new government's fiscal discipline and policy outlook. The government had to compromise on its initial welfare reform plans due to internal opposition within the Labour Party. This "policy retreat" calmed market sentiment in the short term, partially alleviating concerns about fiscal deterioration, which led to a decrease in UK gilt yields from their highs.

However, the pound remains weak, falling from last week's high of 1.3680 against the US dollar, reaching a low of 1.3215 on Wednesday. Interest rate pricing in the money market indicates that investors anticipate only a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in the next 12 months, which is a relative disadvantage compared to the Federal Reserve's more aggressive easing expectations.

More importantly, the trading logic of the pound has evolved from the “political premium” to a more structural “fiscal - monetary mismatch” concerns - Monetary easing, if it follows fiscal tightening, will likely pressure the British pound.

Moreover, UK June CPI met expectations at 2.0%, returning to the Bank of England's target for the first time since 2021, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut this year.

Despite this, the pound is unlikely to experience a systemic devaluation due to current fluctuations. Market participants will closely monitor the medium- to long-term policies of the new Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, whose continued tenure, supported by Prime Minister Starmer, should help restore market confidence.

UK Bond Market Stabilization Fails to Support the Pound, while Structural Mismatch Hinders Short-term Performance_1

Technical Analysis

Technically, the GBPUSD is currently undergoing a short-term correction. After declining from the previous high of 1.3787, it is now forming a potential support zone between 1.3215 and 1.3369. In the 1D timeframe, it indicates that the price is trading below the 20-day SMA, but has not yet fully broken the bullish structure.

If the current area can be maintained and a rebound occurs, breaking through the short-term resistance levels of 1.3607 and 1.3680, the pair will retest the previous high of 1.3787. A confirmed breakout would signal a new upward trend, with a potential target towards the 2023 high of 1.3813.

Key support is at 1.3215, which is also the previous consolidation platform and 50% retracement support. A break below this level would suggest a deeper correction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3500, 1.3450

Target Price: 1.3813

Stop Loss: 1.3290

Valid Until: July 24, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3449, 1.3215, 1.3369

Resistance: 1.3607, 1.3682, 1.3751

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

WTI crude oil extends its gains for a third consecutive session, trading near $67.60, driven by escalating Middle East tensions and renewed supply disruption fears.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

67.600

Entry Price

71.000

65.200

59.988 +0.179 +0.30%

64.3

Pips

Profit

65.200

68.243

Exit Price

67.600

Entry Price

71.000

Crude oil prices pushed higher during early Wednesday trading in Asia, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing for a third consecutive session to trade around $67.60 per barrel. The move extends a rebound driven largely by heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East and growing unease over maritime supply disruptions. Despite this momentum, investor caution surrounding U.S. trade policy and upcoming OPEC+ production decisions kept gains in check.

The latest support for oil prices comes on the back of alarming developments in the Red Sea. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched a deadly attack on a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier on Tuesday, killing three crew members and injuring two others. The vessel ultimately sank, raising serious concerns over shipping security in one of the world’s most strategically critical maritime corridors. This followed another drone strike a day earlier on a Greek-managed ship, which left two crew members injured and two others missing.

These attacks have amplified fears of a potential chokepoint disruption, reminiscent of the Suez Canal blockage in 2021. The Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait serve as critical routes for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Middle East to Europe and Asia. Any prolonged disruption here could ripple across global energy supply chains, forcing rerouting, increasing shipping costs, and reducing available barrels in real time.

However, crude’s upside remains tempered by concerns over looming U.S. tariff actions under the Trump administration. While President Donald Trump has delayed the implementation of new tariffs on imports from key trade partners—including Japan, South Korea, and the European Union—until August 1, his warning that “no extensions will be granted” keeps markets on edge.

The delay, while offering a temporary reprieve, highlights the precarious nature of global trade relations and their direct implications for energy demand. Should talks break down, retaliatory measures could dampen industrial output and transportation activity across major economies, undermining oil consumption in the second half of the year.

Still, the current delay has injected a dose of optimism, as it suggests that diplomatic channels remain open. Markets are cautiously hopeful that a compromise might be reached that avoids the imposition of fresh tariffs altogether—an outcome that would preserve oil demand forecasts heading into Q4.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is gearing up for a key meeting on August 3, where the group is expected to approve a moderate production increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September. This would follow the recently announced decision to raise August output by 548,000 bpd, signaling a gradual return of supply in line with cautious optimism over demand.

The supply recalibration comes as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday lowered its production forecast for 2025, citing lower-than-expected drilling activity. Persistent price volatility and restrained capital expenditure have caused American producers to proceed cautiously, contributing to slower-than-anticipated output recovery. If sustained, this dynamic could support oil prices in the medium term by softening the global supply outlook, especially if demand proves resilient.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, WTI crude continues to exhibit a constructive short-term structure. The price has remained above its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), signaling underlying strength. Bullish momentum has been bolstered by the emergence of positive RSI signals and a failure to break recent lows—indicative of buyers regaining control.

On the daily chart, oil tested resistance near $78 earlier this month, followed by a pullback characterized by a large bearish candle. However, support from the moving average system has remained intact, and the medium-term upward trend has not yet been invalidated. Notably, the MACD indicator has begun to cross downward above the zero line, suggesting weakening bullish momentum—though not yet a definitive reversal.

In the shorter 1-hour timeframe, crude oil has broken above its moving averages and appears to be entering a transitional phase. The MACD has re-crossed the zero axis with a rising histogram, signaling the re-emergence of bullish momentum. Price action is currently range-bound between $65.50 and $67.80. A successful breakout above the upper boundary could pave the way for a push toward the psychologically significant $71.00 level.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 67.60

STOP LOSS: 65.20

TAKE PROFIT: 71.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) briefly tested the 0.6000 handle on Wednesday but failed to hold ground after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a dovish policy statement.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.60000

Entry Price

0.58850

0.60700

0.57816 +0.00062 +0.11%

10.0

Pips

Profit

0.58850

0.59900

Exit Price

0.60000

Entry Price

0.60700

The New Zealand Dollar faltered on Wednesday after a fleeting test of the key 0.6000 psychological level, as investors absorbed a notably dovish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) latest policy announcement. Despite a brief uptick in sentiment during the early European trading session, NZD/USD failed to sustain gains and slipped back toward 0.5975—just above recent two-week lows—highlighting the bearish undertone that continues to define the currency pair’s trajectory.

The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.25%, a move that was widely anticipated by markets. However, the accompanying forward guidance and minutes revealed a growing tilt toward additional monetary easing, with policymakers explicitly referencing the potential for another rate cut in August. That prospect, coupled with a fragile domestic outlook and softening inflationary pressures, quickly undermined any bullish momentum for the Kiwi.

The RBNZ has already executed an aggressive rate-cutting cycle since its policy pivot in late 2024, slashing the OCR by a cumulative 225 basis points from a post-COVID high of 5.5%. The central bank's stance this week suggests it is not done yet. Policymakers noted that inflation is continuing to ease across key sectors and that the risks to growth remain tilted to the downside, particularly in light of ongoing global trade tensions and domestic housing market softness.

Of particular concern to the central bank is the weakening demand-side momentum across the New Zealand economy. Consumer confidence remains fragile, wage growth is moderating, and business investment has plateaued, all pointing to a disinflationary environment that could justify further policy support. The minutes flagged August as a potential window for another cut, reinforcing expectations that the RBNZ is in no rush to normalize or hold steady for long.

The dovish rhetoric stands in stark contrast to some of the more hawkish shifts underway at other central banks—including the Federal Reserve—which may contribute to further downside for the NZD against the USD in the coming sessions. This divergence in policy outlook is being closely watched by currency markets and is reflected in growing speculative short positions on the Kiwi.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD remains in a vulnerable position. Wednesday’s price action confirmed the pair’s failure to reclaim the psychologically significant 0.6000 level, with sellers regaining control following the RBNZ’s dovish guidance. The pair has since moved lower, posting a large bearish candle that decisively broke through a critical support cluster.

The downside bias remains intact, as the pair continues to trade beneath the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashes a fresh bearish signal. Momentum is clearly favoring the downside, and unless there is a notable shift in macro sentiment or U.S. Dollar weakness, the pair is likely to continue grinding lower.

Immediate support is seen at 0.5952—a level that could serve as a temporary floor if short sellers choose to lock in gains. However, a decisive break below this level would open the path toward deeper retracements, with the next key support areas eyed near 0.5920 and potentially 0.5885.

On the flip side, any rebound attempts would face stiff resistance at the 0.6000 level, followed by the 9-day EMA around 0.6025. For the bulls to regain control, a sustained break above this confluence zone would be necessary, though that seems increasingly unlikely given the current policy backdrop.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6000

STOP LOSS: 0.60700

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5885

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold (XAU/USD) extended losses for a second day on Wednesday, slipping below $3,300 as the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields firmed ahead of the Fed’s June meeting minutes.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3300.00

Entry Price

3250.00

3350.00

4215.48 +17.57 +0.42%

500.0

Pips

Loss

3250.00

3350.00

Exit Price

3300.00

Entry Price

3350.00

Gold continued to decline on Wednesday, falling for the second straight session as a firming U.S. Dollar and rising Treasury yields eroded investor appetite for non-yielding assets. The metal, which has struggled to maintain upward momentum in recent weeks, dropped below the psychological $3,300 level and remains vulnerable to further downside as markets brace for the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes.

At the time of writing, spot Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,293, having bounced briefly off support near $3,285. Tuesday’s session saw the precious metal close right at the $3,300 mark, following an intraday failure to break through overhead resistance. The bearish turn is a reflection of the mounting pressure Gold faces as expectations shift firmly in favor of a prolonged high interest rate environment in the United States.

Markets Eye Fed Minutes as Rate Cut Hopes Diminish

All eyes are now on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, which are set to be released later Wednesday. Investors are eager for clues on the Federal Reserve’s internal deliberations, particularly on the timing and extent of potential rate cuts.

During its June meeting, the Fed opted to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, emphasizing persistent inflation pressures and a labor market that remains surprisingly strong. That decision has since been reinforced by the latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed continued job growth and wage resilience — data that has cooled market expectations for a rate cut anytime soon.

This evolving outlook has boosted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has climbed to a two-week high. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have risen across the curve, making interest-bearing assets more attractive and drawing capital away from Gold — a traditional safe haven that offers no yield.

The inverse correlation between Gold and real yields has once again come into sharp focus. As borrowing costs remain elevated, the opportunity cost of holding bullion increases, prompting further liquidation from speculative accounts.

Trade Developments and Tariff Extensions Fuel Dollar Demand, Undermine Gold

Adding to Gold's headwinds is the recent uptick in global trade optimism. Although U.S. President Donald Trump continues to press forward with a wave of reciprocal tariffs, including letters sent to major trading partners outlining potential levies, there are signs that diplomatic momentum may be building.

Recent progress in trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union has helped lift the U.S. Dollar, as investors bet on improved transatlantic relations easing pressure on global growth. Furthermore, Washington’s decision to delay the implementation of new tariffs until August has opened a three-week window for further deal-making — a development that has dampened demand for defensive assets like Gold.

While lingering uncertainty around tariffs and global trade policy remains, the near-term narrative is shifting. Rather than driving risk-off flows into precious metals, market participants appear more willing to chase yield and rotate into risk-sensitive assets, particularly as geopolitical tensions ease and inflation expectations stabilize.

Technical Analysis

Technically, Gold remains firmly under pressure following a failed bullish continuation attempt earlier this week. The metal briefly rallied during intraday trade on Tuesday but was unable to break through resistance, ultimately closing the session at the $3,300 mark. The failure to reclaim that level has emboldened sellers, with bearish momentum picking up again in Wednesday’s trade.

Currently, the RSI is signaling that the market remains in bearish territory, despite some intraday relief. Gold is also trading beneath its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reinforcing the short-term bearish trend. Moreover, the metal continues to track along a descending bias line, a key indicator of the correctional trend that has dominated since mid-June.

Support at $3,285 has provided temporary reprieve, but the broader structure suggests that a move toward $3,250 is now increasingly likely. Should that level give way, the next key area to watch lies near the 200-day EMA, which may serve as a longer-term inflection point for the metal.

On the upside, resistance is now clearly established at the $3,330–$3,350 zone. Bulls will need a decisive break above that band to reset momentum and make another run at recent highs. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3300

STOP LOSS: 3350

TAKE PROFIT: 3250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

OPEC+ decided to increase production again in August, accentuating the market's supply glut, pointing towards bearish expectations for crude oil prices.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

68.200

Entry Price

63.800

70.500

59.988 +0.179 +0.30%

343.0

Pips

Profit

63.800

64.770

Exit Price

68.200

Entry Price

70.500

Fundamentals

Recently, OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to increase production by another 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. This move marks the fourth consecutive "unfreezing" of production quotas since April, bringing the total increase to 2.5 million bpd. While intended to capture more market share, it directly intensifies the global supply glut.

Market interpretations of inventory data show divergence: The UAE Energy Minister claimed that no evidence of significant inventory accumulation is seen. However, deeper analysis of shipping and terminal data indicates that the new production is not being absorbed by end demand, confirming that the fundamental logic of oversupply remains unchanged.

Simultaneously, while military friction in the Middle East last month briefly pushed oil prices higher, risk premiums quickly receded as parties involved showed restraint. The market now views this conflict as unlikely to cause lasting disruption to the supply chain.

Moreover, the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest annual production forecast was revised down only slightly, from 13.42 million bpd to 13.37 million bpd. This minimal reduction is insufficient to counterbalance OPEC+'s production surge. US inventory data also remains persistently high, effectively neutralizing any potential price boost from anticipated output cuts.

All signs point to one conclusion: The fundamental imbalance between oil supply and demand shows no real improvement, continuing to exert persistent downward pressure on crude oil prices.

Technical Analysis

OPEC+ Ramps Up Production Again – Will Short Positions Rise?_1

On the 4-hour chart, WTI crude has seen a significant correction from its June highs. The MA10 and MA20 have successively pierced downward through the MA60 and MA144, forming death crosses. The recent downward cross of the MA60 below the MA144 further confirms intensifying mid-to-long-term selling pressure.

Currently, WTI appears to be in a corrective rebound phase following the sharp decline. It is now approaching the first significant resistance level overhead at $68.50. If prices weaken below this resistance level, WTI could potentially fall further to test the support near $64.00. In contrast, if this resistance level is breached to the upside, WTI might instead rise to test the next resistance at 69.50 or even 70.00 (the psychological level).