Kiwi Falls Back as RBNZ Hints at More Easing

Economic

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) briefly tested the 0.6000 handle on Wednesday but failed to hold ground after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a dovish policy statement.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.60000

Entry Price

0.58850

0.60700

0.57853 +0.00099 +0.17%

10.0

Pips

Profit

0.58850

0.59900

Exit Price

0.60000

Entry Price

0.60700

The New Zealand Dollar faltered on Wednesday after a fleeting test of the key 0.6000 psychological level, as investors absorbed a notably dovish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) latest policy announcement. Despite a brief uptick in sentiment during the early European trading session, NZD/USD failed to sustain gains and slipped back toward 0.5975—just above recent two-week lows—highlighting the bearish undertone that continues to define the currency pair’s trajectory.

The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.25%, a move that was widely anticipated by markets. However, the accompanying forward guidance and minutes revealed a growing tilt toward additional monetary easing, with policymakers explicitly referencing the potential for another rate cut in August. That prospect, coupled with a fragile domestic outlook and softening inflationary pressures, quickly undermined any bullish momentum for the Kiwi.

The RBNZ has already executed an aggressive rate-cutting cycle since its policy pivot in late 2024, slashing the OCR by a cumulative 225 basis points from a post-COVID high of 5.5%. The central bank's stance this week suggests it is not done yet. Policymakers noted that inflation is continuing to ease across key sectors and that the risks to growth remain tilted to the downside, particularly in light of ongoing global trade tensions and domestic housing market softness.

Of particular concern to the central bank is the weakening demand-side momentum across the New Zealand economy. Consumer confidence remains fragile, wage growth is moderating, and business investment has plateaued, all pointing to a disinflationary environment that could justify further policy support. The minutes flagged August as a potential window for another cut, reinforcing expectations that the RBNZ is in no rush to normalize or hold steady for long.

The dovish rhetoric stands in stark contrast to some of the more hawkish shifts underway at other central banks—including the Federal Reserve—which may contribute to further downside for the NZD against the USD in the coming sessions. This divergence in policy outlook is being closely watched by currency markets and is reflected in growing speculative short positions on the Kiwi.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD remains in a vulnerable position. Wednesday’s price action confirmed the pair’s failure to reclaim the psychologically significant 0.6000 level, with sellers regaining control following the RBNZ’s dovish guidance. The pair has since moved lower, posting a large bearish candle that decisively broke through a critical support cluster.

The downside bias remains intact, as the pair continues to trade beneath the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashes a fresh bearish signal. Momentum is clearly favoring the downside, and unless there is a notable shift in macro sentiment or U.S. Dollar weakness, the pair is likely to continue grinding lower.

Immediate support is seen at 0.5952—a level that could serve as a temporary floor if short sellers choose to lock in gains. However, a decisive break below this level would open the path toward deeper retracements, with the next key support areas eyed near 0.5920 and potentially 0.5885.

On the flip side, any rebound attempts would face stiff resistance at the 0.6000 level, followed by the 9-day EMA around 0.6025. For the bulls to regain control, a sustained break above this confluence zone would be necessary, though that seems increasingly unlikely given the current policy backdrop.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6000

STOP LOSS: 0.60700

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5885

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold (XAU/USD) extended losses for a second day on Wednesday, slipping below $3,300 as the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields firmed ahead of the Fed’s June meeting minutes.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3300.00

Entry Price

3250.00

3350.00

4216.81 +18.90 +0.45%

500.0

Pips

Loss

3250.00

3350.00

Exit Price

3300.00

Entry Price

3350.00

Gold continued to decline on Wednesday, falling for the second straight session as a firming U.S. Dollar and rising Treasury yields eroded investor appetite for non-yielding assets. The metal, which has struggled to maintain upward momentum in recent weeks, dropped below the psychological $3,300 level and remains vulnerable to further downside as markets brace for the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes.

At the time of writing, spot Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,293, having bounced briefly off support near $3,285. Tuesday’s session saw the precious metal close right at the $3,300 mark, following an intraday failure to break through overhead resistance. The bearish turn is a reflection of the mounting pressure Gold faces as expectations shift firmly in favor of a prolonged high interest rate environment in the United States.

Markets Eye Fed Minutes as Rate Cut Hopes Diminish

All eyes are now on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, which are set to be released later Wednesday. Investors are eager for clues on the Federal Reserve’s internal deliberations, particularly on the timing and extent of potential rate cuts.

During its June meeting, the Fed opted to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, emphasizing persistent inflation pressures and a labor market that remains surprisingly strong. That decision has since been reinforced by the latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed continued job growth and wage resilience — data that has cooled market expectations for a rate cut anytime soon.

This evolving outlook has boosted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has climbed to a two-week high. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have risen across the curve, making interest-bearing assets more attractive and drawing capital away from Gold — a traditional safe haven that offers no yield.

The inverse correlation between Gold and real yields has once again come into sharp focus. As borrowing costs remain elevated, the opportunity cost of holding bullion increases, prompting further liquidation from speculative accounts.

Trade Developments and Tariff Extensions Fuel Dollar Demand, Undermine Gold

Adding to Gold's headwinds is the recent uptick in global trade optimism. Although U.S. President Donald Trump continues to press forward with a wave of reciprocal tariffs, including letters sent to major trading partners outlining potential levies, there are signs that diplomatic momentum may be building.

Recent progress in trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union has helped lift the U.S. Dollar, as investors bet on improved transatlantic relations easing pressure on global growth. Furthermore, Washington’s decision to delay the implementation of new tariffs until August has opened a three-week window for further deal-making — a development that has dampened demand for defensive assets like Gold.

While lingering uncertainty around tariffs and global trade policy remains, the near-term narrative is shifting. Rather than driving risk-off flows into precious metals, market participants appear more willing to chase yield and rotate into risk-sensitive assets, particularly as geopolitical tensions ease and inflation expectations stabilize.

Technical Analysis

Technically, Gold remains firmly under pressure following a failed bullish continuation attempt earlier this week. The metal briefly rallied during intraday trade on Tuesday but was unable to break through resistance, ultimately closing the session at the $3,300 mark. The failure to reclaim that level has emboldened sellers, with bearish momentum picking up again in Wednesday’s trade.

Currently, the RSI is signaling that the market remains in bearish territory, despite some intraday relief. Gold is also trading beneath its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reinforcing the short-term bearish trend. Moreover, the metal continues to track along a descending bias line, a key indicator of the correctional trend that has dominated since mid-June.

Support at $3,285 has provided temporary reprieve, but the broader structure suggests that a move toward $3,250 is now increasingly likely. Should that level give way, the next key area to watch lies near the 200-day EMA, which may serve as a longer-term inflection point for the metal.

On the upside, resistance is now clearly established at the $3,330–$3,350 zone. Bulls will need a decisive break above that band to reset momentum and make another run at recent highs. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3300

STOP LOSS: 3350

TAKE PROFIT: 3250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

OPEC+ decided to increase production again in August, accentuating the market's supply glut, pointing towards bearish expectations for crude oil prices.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

68.200

Entry Price

63.800

70.500

59.986 +0.177 +0.30%

343.0

Pips

Profit

63.800

64.770

Exit Price

68.200

Entry Price

70.500

Fundamentals

Recently, OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to increase production by another 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. This move marks the fourth consecutive "unfreezing" of production quotas since April, bringing the total increase to 2.5 million bpd. While intended to capture more market share, it directly intensifies the global supply glut.

Market interpretations of inventory data show divergence: The UAE Energy Minister claimed that no evidence of significant inventory accumulation is seen. However, deeper analysis of shipping and terminal data indicates that the new production is not being absorbed by end demand, confirming that the fundamental logic of oversupply remains unchanged.

Simultaneously, while military friction in the Middle East last month briefly pushed oil prices higher, risk premiums quickly receded as parties involved showed restraint. The market now views this conflict as unlikely to cause lasting disruption to the supply chain.

Moreover, the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest annual production forecast was revised down only slightly, from 13.42 million bpd to 13.37 million bpd. This minimal reduction is insufficient to counterbalance OPEC+'s production surge. US inventory data also remains persistently high, effectively neutralizing any potential price boost from anticipated output cuts.

All signs point to one conclusion: The fundamental imbalance between oil supply and demand shows no real improvement, continuing to exert persistent downward pressure on crude oil prices.

Technical Analysis

OPEC+ Ramps Up Production Again – Will Short Positions Rise?_1

On the 4-hour chart, WTI crude has seen a significant correction from its June highs. The MA10 and MA20 have successively pierced downward through the MA60 and MA144, forming death crosses. The recent downward cross of the MA60 below the MA144 further confirms intensifying mid-to-long-term selling pressure.

Currently, WTI appears to be in a corrective rebound phase following the sharp decline. It is now approaching the first significant resistance level overhead at $68.50. If prices weaken below this resistance level, WTI could potentially fall further to test the support near $64.00. In contrast, if this resistance level is breached to the upside, WTI might instead rise to test the next resistance at 69.50 or even 70.00 (the psychological level).

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 68.20

Target price: 63.80

Stop loss: 70.50

Valid Until: July 23, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 64.68/63.70

Resistance: 68.50/69.50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On July 9, 2025, EUR/USD trades near 1.1720–1.1760, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar, delayed U.S. tariffs, and dovish Fed bets. With support zoned around 1.1675–1.1700 and resistance at 1.1830, a breakout setup is forming and primed for a bullish push....

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17205

Entry Price

1.17800

1.17000

1.16556 +0.00130 +0.11%

20.5

Pips

Loss

1.17000

Exit Price

1.17205

Entry Price

1.17800

Market Overview

EUR/USD recently rebounded thanks to better EU‑U.S. trade sentiment and a softer dollar. The greenback is under pressure following Trump's tariff delays to August 1, and Powell’s caution signals further Fed dovishness. The ECB also cut rates by 25 bps and flagged concerns about a too‑strong euro weighing on inflation. The euro reference rate hit approximately 1.1728 on July 7, slightly retreating to 1.1718 on July 8.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment favors the euro. Traders are rotating into EUR as a hedge against dollar and tariff disruptions. Options flows lean euro‑long, while speculative positions remain elevated. However, the ECB is cautious about overstrength beyond $1.20, which could cap gains.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD eyes breakout amid dollar jitters and trade‑tariff optimism_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): Rates are hugging the mid‑band (~1.1740–1.1760), signaling a potential move toward the upper band and resistance around 1.1800–1.1830.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): EUR/USD candles are above the cloud on both 1H and daily, giving bullish confirmation. Cloud resistance lines up near 1.1800–1.1830.

Stochastic (5,3,3): Neutral‑to‑bullish on M15 with space to trend toward overbought.

Trade Recommendation

Entry (Long): 1.1720–1.1730 – near mid‑band and Ichimoku support zone

Take Profit: 1.1780 – upper Bollinger band + Ichimoku & trendline resistance

Stop Loss: 1.1700 – below cloud & lower mid‑band support (~1.1700)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

As of July 9, 2025, Bitcoin trades around $108.6K, stuck in consolidation between $107K–$110K...

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

108600.0

Entry Price

109500.0

107500.0

91333.9 +1779.1 +1.99%

900.0

Pips

Profit

107500.0

109500.0

Exit Price

108600.0

Entry Price

109500.0

Market Overview

Bitcoin is trading in a consolidation range: intraday low near $108K and high around $109.1K. On the 4‑hour chart, a bullish trend is evident as BTC recently broke above a descending resistance trendline, hovering close to $109K–$110K resistance. Macro tailwinds include expectations of Fed rate cuts, increased institutional ETF inflows, and on‑chain bullish order flow.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment leans cautiously bullish. Analysts from CryptoSanders note that as long as BTC holds above $107K cloud support, bullish structure remains intact. SeoVereign continues holding long from July 6's entry, targeting roughly $109.15K. Overall, institutions are buying; retail wait for breakout confirmation setup favorable.

Technical Analysis

BTC/USD eyes breakout above $110K amid consolidation and institutional interest_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): Price is centered around the mid‑band (~$108.5K), hinting at a squeeze. A breakout could trigger a momentum burst.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): Price sits above the cloud on both 4H and daily charts. Cloud at $107K–$108K provides support while resistance lies in $109K–$110K cloud upper bound.

Stochastic (5,3,3): On M15, stochastic is neutral to slightly bullish no overbought warning yet room for upside.

Trade Recommendation

Entry (Long): $108,400–$108,600 bottom of current range / mid‑band area

Take Profit: $110,000 supply zone breakout level

Stop Loss$107,500 below cloud support and lower trendline structure

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This resistance zone also aligns with a descending trendline on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing the potential for a bearish rejection.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36900

Entry Price

1.35800

1.37300

1.38200 +0.00053 +0.04%

8.3

Pips

Profit

1.35800

1.36817

Exit Price

1.36900

Entry Price

1.37300

In its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, the New York Federal Reserve reported that one-year inflation expectations declined to 3.0% in June, down from 3.2% in May. Meanwhile, the three-year inflation outlook remained steady at 3.0%, and the five-year expectation was unchanged at 2.6%.

While the inflation outlook moderated, expectations for price increases in sectors such as rent, gasoline, healthcare, and higher education accelerated in June. Housing price expectations also held firm at 3.0%, underscoring a somewhat mixed inflation landscape.

At the same time, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC he expects 15–20 more tariff-related letters to be issued in the coming days. Investor sentiment remained cautious as President Trump threatened to expand tariffs to include pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and copper—industries critical to global supply chains.

On Monday night, the White House confirmed that President Trump signed an executive order delaying the implementation of newly announced tariffs from July to August 1. The 25% levies—initially targeted at goods from Japan and South Korea—will also extend to imports from Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Tunisia. South Africa faces a 30% tariff, while Laos and Myanmar are hit with 40% duties. Additional affected nations include Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (35%), and both Thailand and Cambodia (36%).

Analysts continue to view the unpredictability of U.S. trade and fiscal policies as a significant factor behind the U.S. dollar's volatile performance. A Reuters poll published on July 2 revealed that 37% of foreign exchange strategists consider tariff negotiations a major drag on the greenback, alongside persistent concerns over debt levels and the uncertain interest rate trajectory.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that monetary policy will remain data-dependent. Although he has not ruled out a rate cut in July, the likelihood of action this month remains low. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in just a 4.7% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in July, down from 20.7% last week. The focus has now shifted to September, with a 62.8% chance of easing—though that has also slipped from 73.2%.

Elsewhere, Canada remains outside the scope of Washington’s global tariff push, according to a statement from the Prime Minister’s office on Monday. However, Canadian exports are still impacted by targeted tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and fentanyl-related trade. While a bilateral agreement with the U.S. is expected by July 21, these measures continue to weigh on the Canadian dollar, particularly in the short term.

In addition, the Canadian dollar has come under renewed pressure following a drop in crude oil prices. OPEC+ surprised markets by agreeing to a larger-than-anticipated production increase for August, dragging crude prices lower. Given that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States, falling energy prices tend to exert downward pressure on the Loonie. A Potential Downside Move Develops From Triangular Resistance_1

A Potential Downside Move Develops From Triangular Resistance_1

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD recently advanced, but bullish momentum is showing signs of exhaustion as the pair approaches the confluence of the 100- and 200-period moving averages, located at 1.3661 and 1.3688 respectively. This resistance zone also aligns with a descending trendline on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing the potential for a bearish rejection.

If the pair is turned away once more from this area, a corrective move lower could unfold, targeting the lower boundary of a triangle pattern—an area that has previously acted as support and may do so again during a potential retracement.

The RSI currently sits near 55, still within neutral territory, suggesting a retest of the upper triangle boundary remains a possibility before any decisive move lower. A clear rejection from the resistance zone would provide confirmation for short setups. However, a strong breakout above the descending trendline could invalidate the bearish scenario and open the door for further upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3690

Target price: 1.3580

Stop loss: 1.3730

Validity: Jul 18, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

If the pair reacts positively around this dynamic support, the case for a bullish continuation will strengthen significantly.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17231

Entry Price

1.19000

1.16000

1.16556 +0.00130 +0.11%

17.2

Pips

Profit

1.16000

1.17403

Exit Price

1.17231

Entry Price

1.19000

Reports have surfaced that the United States offered the European Union a 10% tariff across all goods—with specific exemptions for sensitive sectors such as aircraft and spirits. Negotiations appear to remain in flux, with final approval resting solely in the hands of President Trump. This element of uncertainty continues to cast a shadow over the dollar’s performance in the short term.

Meanwhile, Germany’s trade balance surprised to the upside in May, widening its surplus to €18.4 billion from €15.8 billion in April (revised up from €14.6 billion), according to the latest figures from Destatis. This was well above market expectations of €15.5 billion and represents a solid sign of resilience from the region’s largest economy.

In detail, Germany exported goods worth €129.4 billion and imported €111.1 billion in May 2025. The resulting external trade surplus highlights a modest rebound in trade momentum, although the surplus still trails the €22.3 billion reported in May 2024.

Monthly data showed that exports declined by 1.4%, a steeper drop than the -0.2% forecast, while imports fell sharply by 3.8%, far worse than the projected 0.9% contraction. April’s import reading was also revised lower from +3.9% to +2.2%. However, on a year-over-year basis, exports edged up 0.4% and imports climbed 4.2%, underscoring a shift in trade dynamics within the eurozone.

Across the Atlantic, the White House confirmed Monday night that President Trump had signed an executive order postponing the implementation of new tariffs from July to August 1. The original proposal had called for 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea. Under the new framework, additional 25% levies will also target goods from Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Tunisia, while South Africa faces a 30% tariff. Laos and Myanmar are set to endure 40% duties, with Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (35%), and both Thailand and Cambodia (36%) included in the expanded list.

Analysts have cited the unpredictability of Trump’s fiscal and trade policy as a key reason for continued caution surrounding the U.S. dollar. A Reuters poll conducted on July 2 found that 37% of foreign exchange strategists believe the tariff standoff is a primary headwind for the greenback, alongside fiscal concerns and an unclear path for future interest rates.

In parallel, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated the Fed’s commitment to data-dependent decision-making and has not ruled out a rate cut in July. However, with recent economic signals sending mixed messages, the central bank appears poised to remain cautious for now. Markets are pricing in just a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, compared to 20.7% a week ago. September now stands as the more likely target, with a 62.8% probability of easing—though even that has slipped from 73.2% the previous week. Bullish Momentum Builds as EURUSD Finds Strong Technical Base_1

Bullish Momentum Builds as EURUSD Finds Strong Technical Base_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has found solid support near the 1.1675 level—a zone that has previously triggered bullish rebounds. This time, the pair showed a similar pattern, with two strong bullish candles emerging on the 2-hour chart, suggesting buyers are defending the area. If momentum holds, a new upside leg could be in the making, particularly as the broader trend remains bullish while the pair continues to print higher lows. Any sustained move above this support may encourage traders to reload long positions, targeting the next key resistance level near 1.1900. However, a decisive break below 1.1675 would invalidate the bullish setup and potentially open the door to a deeper correction.

The RSI recently touched 30—often considered oversold territory—without printing a new price low, hinting that bearish pressure might be fading. Additionally, EUR/USD is approaching the 200-period moving average, which in the past has acted as a launchpad for upside moves. If the pair reacts positively around this dynamic support, the case for a bullish continuation will strengthen significantly.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1722

Target price: 1.1900

Stop loss: 1.1600

Validity: Jul 18, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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