Driven by a market reassessment of political risks surrounding the White House and the Fed, gold opened sharply higher on Monday and hit a new record, with silver following. Gold looks set to test the key level at 4,685; a decisive break above that point could pave the way toward the 5,000 psychological level.

In addition, after a year in which silver led the market, momentum may be rotating back into gold — a shift consistent with rising concerns about institutional credibility rather than cyclical inflation.

The immediate trigger was news that US prosecutors opened a criminal inquiry into Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. The development rattled markets and reignited concerns about growing political interference with the Fed at a time when policy credibility remains critical.

The move is widely seen as the latest attack by the Trump administration on the Fed. While policymakers remain concerned about rekindling price pressures or undoing hard-won disinflation, the Fed is under increasing pressure to move toward easier policy.

Powell confirmed on Sunday that the Fed had received a grand-jury subpoena and the prospect of criminal charges. The matter relates to his earlier testimony to Congress regarding a $2.5 billion renovation at Fed headquarters, but Powell placed the issue in a broader political context.

He warned that the action should be seen against a backdrop of ongoing threats and pressure intended to force rate cuts and increase political control over monetary policy. He stated bluntly: “This unprecedented action should be viewed in the broader context of ongoing threats and sustained pressure.” Powell’s prior remarks have indicated the Fed’s readiness to defend its independence.

For markets, Fed easing expectations, continued ETF inflows, and robust physical demand together underpin the long-term bullish case for gold. However, in the near term, given that prices are at record highs, investors should remain constructive but cautious and prepare for heightened volatility.

Technically, the upward trend in gold resumed after breaking the previous record high of 4,550, and it is now moving toward 4,685, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement of the 3,267–4,381 range. A clear break above that level could allow a run at the 5,000 psychological mark and even 5,111, the 100% retracement.

Conversely, as long as the 4,381 resistance (now turned support) holds, the outlook remains bullish even if a pullback occurs.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4,635

Target Price: 4,395

Stop Loss: 4,678

Valid Until: February 9, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 4,550 / 4,518 / 4,485

Resistance: 4,632 / 4,655 / 4,685

Silver (XAG/USD) continued its explosive advance on Monday, trading around $85.40 at the time of writing, marking a 7.0% gain on the day. The precious metal is holding firmly onto the bulk of its intraday gains, edging closer to its all-time high of $58.87, as investors intensify their rotation into safe-haven assets amid a rapidly deteriorating global risk backdrop.

The latest surge in Silver is not occurring in isolation. It forms part of a broader rally across the precious metals complex, with Gold (XAU/USD) also extending gains as investors reassess geopolitical, political, and macroeconomic risks. The current environment reflects a sharp shift away from risk-sensitive assets, with capital increasingly flowing into stores of value as uncertainty dominates the global outlook.

At the heart of the risk-off move are escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly surrounding Iran, where ongoing unrest and an increasingly hostile exchange of rhetoric between Tehran and Washington have amplified fears of a broader regional confrontation. Markets remain highly sensitive to any developments that could disrupt energy flows or trigger military escalation, conditions that historically provide strong tailwinds for precious metals.

Beyond the Middle East, concerns are also mounting over Arctic security, following discussions among European leaders regarding a strengthened military presence in Greenland. While often overlooked, the Arctic has emerged as a strategic flashpoint, with its geopolitical significance growing alongside climate-driven accessibility and global power competition. The combination of Middle Eastern instability and rising Arctic militarization has added another layer of uncertainty, further undermining global risk sentiment.

Compounding these external shocks is an unprecedented political situation in the United States. Confidence in the country’s monetary framework has been rattled by the launch of a criminal investigation targeting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The move has reignited concerns over the politicization of US monetary policy, eroding institutional credibility at a time when market confidence is already fragile.

This development has weighed heavily on the US Dollar, which typically shares an inverse relationship with Dollar-denominated commodities. As trust in the Federal Reserve’s independence weakens, the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal diminishes—creating a supportive backdrop for Silver and other hard assets.

From a macroeconomic perspective, recent US labor market data have reinforced expectations that the economy is losing momentum. Job creation fell short of market forecasts, signaling a gradual cooling in employment conditions. In response, markets continue to price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, even as policymakers are widely expected to keep rates unchanged at the upcoming January meeting.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver, structurally underpinning demand. In this context, Silver’s rally appears to be driven not only by short-term fear but also by a longer-term repricing of monetary conditions.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor upcoming US economic data, including Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, alongside speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Any confirmation of slowing inflation or a dovish shift in policy rhetoric could further accelerate Silver’s upside, especially given the already fragile geopolitical and political landscape.

From a technical standpoint, Silver has posted sharp intraday gains, carving out new all-time highs and confirming the dominance of the short-term bullish trend. Prices continue to trade decisively above the EMA50, reinforcing trend stability and signaling strong underlying momentum.

Silver’s price action remains aligned with its ascending trendline, while relative strength indicators continue to flash positive signals despite operating in overbought territory—a characteristic often seen during strong directional trends rather than a sign of imminent reversal.

Importantly, Silver is now positioned to violate a major resistance structure aligned with its current all-time high. A confirmed four-hour close above this level would validate a technical breakout and open the door for further upside acceleration.

Should this breakout materialize, the next bullish extension is projected toward an initial upside target near 91.00, with momentum-driven flows likely to dominate price action in the absence of nearby technical resistance.

BUY SILVER

ENTRYR PRICE: 84.50

STOP LOSS: 82.00

TAKE PROFIT: 91.00

Gold prices launched the new trading week with explosive upside momentum, shattering the long-watched $4,600 psychological threshold and printing fresh all-time highs as investor anxiety surged across global markets. Spot gold (XAU/USD) was last seen trading around $4,610, up nearly 2.1% on the day, as capital rotated aggressively into safe-haven assets amid intensifying political and economic uncertainty.

The rally comes against the backdrop of an extraordinary development in the United States, where federal prosecutors have initiated a criminal investigation involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The move has rattled markets, triggering a sharp reassessment of U.S. institutional stability and reigniting concerns about the erosion of central bank independence — a foundational pillar of global financial confidence.

Political pressure on the Federal Reserve has surged in recent weeks, with mounting criticism over interest-rate policy, inflation management, and the broader direction of monetary strategy. The investigation into Powell, regardless of its ultimate outcome, has injected a new layer of risk into markets already grappling with slowing global growth and fragile investor sentiment. For many traders, the optics alone are enough to undermine confidence in the U.S. policy framework, pushing investors toward assets perceived as politically neutral and historically reliable stores of value — chief among them, gold.

The fallout has been swift in currency markets. The U.S. dollar has come under renewed selling pressure, reflecting investor unease over policy credibility and the potential for politicized monetary decisions. As the greenback weakens, gold — priced in dollars — becomes more attractive to international buyers, reinforcing the metal’s upside momentum.

This dynamic has been compounded by a broader shift toward risk aversion, with equity markets showing signs of strain and volatility creeping higher. In such environments, gold’s role as both an inflation hedge and a hedge against systemic risk becomes increasingly prominent, especially when confidence in traditional financial anchors begins to falter.

Beyond domestic U.S. concerns, persistent geopolitical tensions are adding fuel to gold’s surge. Investors remain on edge as protests continue across Iran, raising fears of wider regional instability. At the same time, renewed rhetoric involving U.S. strategic interests in Greenland and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Venezuela have kept geopolitical risk premiums firmly embedded in asset prices.

These overlapping flashpoints are reinforcing a global narrative of fragmentation and unpredictability — conditions that historically favor bullion. In this environment, gold is no longer merely reacting to interest-rate expectations but is increasingly being treated as strategic insurance against political, economic, and geopolitical shocks.

Looking ahead, markets are bracing for a pivotal week of U.S. economic data. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures due Tuesday will offer critical insight into inflation trends, followed by Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Wednesday. Together, these releases will shape expectations around the Fed’s next policy steps at a time when its credibility is already under scrutiny.

Adding to the volatility, a heavy lineup of Federal Reserve speakers is scheduled throughout the week. Any deviation in tone — particularly regarding inflation persistence or rate-cut timing — could further exacerbate market swings and influence gold’s trajectory.

From a technical standpoint, gold’s structure remains decisively bullish. The metal’s successful breach and consolidation above $4,600 confirms a continuation of the dominant upward trend on the short-term and medium-term charts. Prices remain supported by an ascending trend line and continue to trade comfortably above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), reinforcing the strength of the move.

Momentum indicators are flashing strong bullish signals. The Average Directional Index (ADX) hovering near 30 suggests that trend strength remains intact, while relative strength indicators, though firmly in overbought territory, show no immediate signs of bearish divergence. This reflects powerful buying pressure rather than exhaustion.

On the upside, a sustained push above $4,650 could open the door toward the $4,700 region, where psychological and technical resistance is expected to emerge. While near-term consolidation or shallow pullbacks cannot be ruled out given stretched conditions, dips are likely to attract buyers as long as broader risk drivers remain unresolved.

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4610

STOP LOSS: 4560

TAKE PROFIT: 4700

The euro extended its recovery against the US dollar on Monday, with EUR/USD trading near the 1.1690 mark at the time of writing, around 0.4% higher on the day. The pair rebounded sharply from one-month lows around the 1.1620 region earlier in the session, as a combination of improving Eurozone sentiment data and renewed political pressure on the US Federal Reserve weighed heavily on the greenback.

Support for the single currency was reinforced by an upbeat reading from the Eurozone Sentix Consumer Sentiment Index, which surprised modestly to the upside and helped ease concerns that fragile consumer confidence could further undermine the region’s already sluggish growth outlook. While the broader Eurozone macro picture remains mixed, the data provided a timely catalyst for euro buyers, particularly against a dollar struggling to find a fundamental anchor.

The US dollar, meanwhile, came under renewed selling pressure following fresh political developments in Washington that have unsettled investors and revived concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. According to a report published by The New York Times on Sunday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing a criminal investigation linked to testimony he delivered before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the renovation of a Federal Reserve building.

Powell responded swiftly, releasing a video statement in which he described the investigation as “unprecedented” and framed it as part of a broader campaign of political intimidation aimed at forcing the central bank to cut interest rates. Markets appeared to interpret the episode as another escalation in the long-running conflict between the US administration and the Fed, raising fears that political interference could undermine policy credibility at a critical juncture for the US economy.

From a market perspective, renewed attacks on the Fed have tended to weaken the dollar, as they inject uncertainty into the outlook for US monetary policy and risk destabilising long-term inflation expectations. Traders appear increasingly wary that sustained political pressure could influence the Fed’s decision-making process, particularly as financial conditions remain tight and growth signals show early signs of cooling.

Geopolitical risks also linger in the background, adding another layer of complexity to market sentiment. Violence escalated sharply in Iran over the weekend, with reports suggesting that hundreds of protesters were killed by the regime amid widespread unrest. The situation has heightened concerns about regional instability, while the looming threat of potential US intervention has added to global risk unease. Although such developments have traditionally supported the US dollar via safe-haven flows, the currency has so far failed to benefit, suggesting that domestic political concerns are currently exerting a stronger influence.

The economic calendar is relatively light at the start of the week, but market participants will be paying close attention to remarks from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic later on Monday. Any commentary on inflation dynamics or the timing of potential rate cuts could shape near-term dollar sentiment. Looking further ahead, attention will turn sharply to the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, a key input into the Fed’s policy calculus, followed by a series of speeches from Fed officials throughout the week.

In my view, the dollar’s near-term vulnerability reflects a growing disconnect between resilient headline US data and rising political and institutional risks. Unless US inflation surprises meaningfully to the upside, the greenback may struggle to regain momentum, leaving room for the euro to extend its corrective rebound despite its own structural challenges.

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD has staged a convincing bounce from one-month lows near 1.1620, suggesting that buyers are defending the lower boundary of the recent trading range. However, the pair continues to trade within a broader descending channel that has been in place since the late-December highs, indicating that the medium-term bias remains cautiously bearish unless key resistance levels are cleared.

Momentum indicators on the four-hour chart have turned more constructive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed above its signal line, pointing to a gradual fading of bearish pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pushed decisively above the 50 threshold, signalling improving upside momentum.

On the topside, the immediate area of interest lies near 1.1700, where the upper boundary of the descending channel converges with the January 7 high. A sustained break above this zone would likely open the door for a move toward the January 6 peak at 1.1740. Failure to clear resistance, however, could see the pair drift back toward support levels, with 1.1620 remaining a critical line in the sand for euro bulls.

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1690

STOP LOSS: 1.1650

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1740

A Reuter's survey indicates a slight decline in OPEC production in December, with Iran and Venezuela's supplies hampered by sanctions and domestic factors, providing short-term market support. However, overall production increase commitments and alternative supplies from Russia, Venezuela, and U.S. shale oil maintain market caution regarding long-term supply gaps.

Meanwhile, the IEA has slightly upwardly revised its 2026 demand forecast, suggesting a modest growth trend overall. This indicates that demand improvement exists but with limited magnitude—creating a scenario where supply and demand dynamics make prices more susceptible to sharp fluctuations in response to news developments.

Furthermore, the weekly official U.S. data and industry (API) inventory trends directly impact intraday trading dynamics: the latest EIA weekly report indicates fluctuations in refinery utilization rates and production-sales cycles, causing market to repeatedly digest inventory levels and demand expectations in the short term.

In summary, the fundamental outlook presents a mixed signal characterized by "geopolitical or country-specific supply tightness, overall supply remaining fundamentally unshrunk, and limited demand recovery."

In the 1D timeframe, WTI’s overall candlestick pattern has broken above the lower boundary of the descending channel last week, indicating a potential short-term bullish reversal. The primary target is to test the resistance level at 62.00 upwards.

In the 4H timeframe, after surpassing the upper boundary of the descending channel and breaking through the 58.50 resistance level, WTI’s upward momentum has further expanded. Currently, the candlestick pattern has formed a breakout retest structure, awaiting confirmation signals of stabilization and support, suggesting that WTI may continue its upward trajectory.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 58.60

Target Price: 61.80

Stop Loss: 57.40

Valid Until: January 26, 2026 23:00:00

Support: 58.50, 57.50

Resistance: 60.00, 62.00

The market's anticipation of the Bank of England implementing two additional interest rate cuts by 2026 continues to intensify, potentially dampening traders' aggressive bullish positions on the GBP and constraining the GBPUSD currency pair's momentum. Traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of upcoming U.S. inflation data—specifically, the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index—scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Additionally, the UK’s monthly GDP report due on Thursday is expected to provide some upward impetus for the GBPUSD pair in the latter half of the week. Recently, political developments in the UK have centered around two critical issues: intense disputes during post-Brexit negotiation re-engagement with the EU and the UK’s ongoing substantial military support to Ukraine. These issues collectively delineate the UK’s positioning within a complex international landscape. The UK-EU negotiations have become entangled in the controversy surrounding the so-called “Farage clause.” During the UK Labour Party’s Starmer-led efforts to revive Brexit negotiations, the EU proposed a highly contentious safeguard mechanism—referred to privately as the “Farage clause”—which stipulates that if the UK unilaterally withdraws from the agreement in the future, it must pay substantial compensation to the EU to cover potential additional costs, such as border quarantine infrastructure. This measure aims to mitigate the risks associated with political upheaval, particularly in light of the possibility of Nigel Farage, a staunch Eurosceptic reformist, returning to power.

Despite the global risk-off sentiment intensifying and market expectations of a more aggressive easing stance by the Federal Reserve diminishing, concerns over the Fed's independence have resurged, exerting downward pressure on the US dollar and strengthening the GBPUSD exchange rate. In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in a release that the U.S. Department of Justice is threatening to bring criminal charges against him. Powell added that the basis for potential prosecution is because the Fed has consistently prioritized public interests over aligning with the President's preferences. Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released December employment data showing a net increase of 50,000 jobs, below the Reuters survey's forecast of 60,000, while the unemployment rate decreased from the revised 4.5% in November to 4.4%. Following this data release, market traders are betting that Powell will conclude his rate cuts before his term ends on May 15, with subsequent monetary policy decisions likely to be transferred to his successor, appointed by President Donald Trump, whose candidate is expected to be announced this month. Reflecting on last year's policy measures, the Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, reduced the benchmark federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points to prevent further weakening of the labor market. This move sparked concerns among hawkish colleagues, who believed that rate cuts might delay or even jeopardize inflation returning to target levels. The latest employment figures have provided the Fed with policy buffer space, enabling it to keep short-term borrowing costs steady to continue containing inflation—aligning with Powell's policy stance last month, which indicates a preference among policymakers to maintain the status quo in the near term.

In the 1D timeframe, the GBPUSD pair has experienced a correction and stabilized near the middle Bollinger Band. The MACD has generated a death cross, with the MACD line and signal line currently pulling back toward the zero-axis at a considerable distance, indicating the corrective phase is incomplete. The RSI's peak has begun to decline, likely retracing toward the EMA50 or EMA200 at approximately 1.336 and 1.3288, respectively. With an RSI reading of 53, market sentiment remains cautious. In the 4H timeframe, Bollinger bands are narrowing, SMAs are flattening, and the price has broken above the descending channel's upper boundary. The MACD's bearish momentum is diminishing, and a golden cross is imminent for the MACD line and signal line, suggesting a short-term bullish momentum. Resistance levels are identified around the EMA50 and psychological round figures at approximately 1.345 and 1.35. The RSI stands at 47, indicating market sentiment remains somewhat bearish but shows signs of recovery, with the RSI lows gradually rising. Therefore, it is recommended to go long before going short.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.34

Target Price: 1.36

Stop Loss: 1.33

Support: 1.33, 1.29, 1.28

Resistance: 1.35, 1.36, 1.373