Job Market Resilience Strengthens, with Wage Pressure Supporting the Pound's Continued Uptrend

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The UK's unemployment rate continues to decline, while wage growth remains robust, potentially leading the Bank of England to hold interest rates steady. In the 4H timeframe, the GBPUSD has broken out of a contracting triangle pattern, trading above 1.3600 and extending its bullish momentum.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36455

Entry Price

1.38500

1.34500

1.33707 -0.00148 -0.11%

195.5

Pips

Loss

1.34500

1.34499

Exit Price

1.36455

Entry Price

1.38500

Fundamentals

The GBPUSD experienced a modest pullback on Tuesday after breaching the 1.3600 level, yet it maintained a positive trajectory. Robust UK wage growth may prompt the Bank of England to hold steady on interest rates during Thursday's meeting.

The UK labor market data for August, released on Tuesday, revealed a decline of 8,000 jobs month-over-month, continuing the downward trend observed since the peak in Q3 2024. The claimant count increased by 17,400, falling short of the anticipated 20,300. Median monthly earnings saw a 6.6% year-over-year increase, surpassing the 6.0% recorded in July, indicating persistent wage pressures.

The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.7% for the three months ending in July, aligning with expectations. Average earnings excluding bonuses edged down from 5.0% to 4.8%, while average earnings including bonuses saw a slight uptick from 4.6% to 4.7%. Overall, the data suggests ongoing job losses, but sustained wage growth warrants a cautious approach to policy by the Bank of England.

Job Market Resilience Strengthens, with Wage Pressure Supporting the Pound's Continued Uptrend_1

Technical Analysis

Following a breach of 1.3600, the GBPUSD maintains its upward trajectory, though bulls must secure a daily close above 1.3600 to facilitate further gains. The subsequent significant resistance level is the July 4 high of 1.3682, followed by 1.3700. A break above the latter would target the July 1 high of 1.3788.

Conversely, if GBPUSD struggles at the 1.3600 level, a test of 1.3550 could ensue. Further weakness might see a challenge of the 20-day SMA at 1.3496.

From a broader trend perspective, the uptrend initiated from 1.3051 (2022 low) remains intact. The next intermediate target is the 61.8% retracement of 1.0351, from 1.2099 to 1.3433, with a final target at 1.4004. As long as the 55-day SMA (currently at 1.3151) holds, the outlook remains bullish, even amid significant pullbacks.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3597

Target Price: 1.3850

Stop Loss: 1.3450

Valid Until: October 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3590, 1.3523, 1.3483

Resistance: 1.3650, 1.3681, 1.3751

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

The latest UK employment data shows some softness in the labor market, but recent strong economic figures continue to support the British pound.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

200.381

Entry Price

204.900

198.600

208.323 +0.079 +0.04%

2.0

Pips

Profit

198.600

200.401

Exit Price

200.381

Entry Price

204.900

Fundamentals

Released today, the UK labor market data indicates a slowdown in wage growth, a month-on-month decline in the number of people in work, and a rise in the unemployment rate to around 4.7%, with payroll numbers for the month also decreasing, signaling a cooling in employment momentum. Seemingly, the market could interpret such signs of labor market weakness as a reason for the Bank of England to adopt a more dovish policy path, which would put downward pressure on the British pound. However, deeper data also reveal that the UK's GDP still recorded moderate growth in Q2 (positive on a quarterly basis). Additionally, although wage levels have decreased, they remain above pre-pandemic trends. This reveals the Bank of England is not about to turn decisively dovish just yet, and there is still potential for its policy stance to "hold relatively high interest rates to combat inflation." In other words, while the employment weakness provides a short-term reason for a pullback, it does not necessarily invalidate the pound's long-term valuation. On the contrary, such data fluctuations often create better entry opportunities for traders willing to buy the pound with a preference for higher interest rate differentials and risk appetite.

Technical Analysis

Holding Firm Above 200.00 Is Just the Beginning_1

The daily chart shows that the closing price of GBP/JPY last Friday confirmed a firm breakout and hold above the 200.00 level. These key psychological and technical barriers are effectively breached, further opening up the upside potential for GBP/JPY.

At present, the short-term resistance for GBP/JPY lies in the 202.00-203.00 range, with stronger resistance seen between 205.00 and 208.00. The first key support zone to watch is around 199.00–199.60. Should the exchange rate break above 202.00 in the short term and hold above that level, it would technically confirm a breakout, likely triggering additional follow-up buying interest. Conversely, if the pair retraces to the 199.00–199.60 zone and holds steady there, it would present a lower-risk opportunity to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 200.30

Target price: 204.90

Stop loss: 198.60

Valid Until: September 30, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 200.00/199.00

Resistance: 202.00/203.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Economic

Summary:

On September 15th, 2025, the Finance Sector Union of Australia announced it had filed a complaint with the Fair Work Commission, urging urgent intervention regarding ANZ Group's recent plan to lay off 3,500 employees. However, the incident has had limited impact on the Australian dollar, as market attention shifts to the employment report due Thursday (employment is expected to rise by 21,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to increase by 4.2%).

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66600

Entry Price

0.63000

0.67500

0.66520 -0.00118 -0.18%

39.4

Pips

Profit

0.63000

0.66206

Exit Price

0.66600

Entry Price

0.67500

Fundamentals

On September 15th, 2025, the Finance Sector Union of Australia announced it had filed a complaint with the Fair Work Commission, urging urgent intervention regarding ANZ Group's recent plan to lay off 3,500 employees. The union criticized the bank for severely inadequate consultation with affected staff, as well as failing to meet its legal obligation of proper communication. In a statement, the union accused ANZ, saying that "thousands of families are left in the dark while executives protect their bonuses." The union emphasized that the complaint was filed to secure fair treatment and job security for workers. The dispute stems from ANZ's major restructuring plan announced last week, in which the bank stated that the layoffs aimed to streamline operations and focus on core businesses. However, the bank has not yet responded directly to the union's allegations. On the same day, ANZ also agreed to pay a AU$240 million (approximately US$159.9 million) fine to settle multiple charges brought by corporate regulators, including "unreasonable" conduct in government bond trading and systemic failures such as continuing to charge deceased customers. This penalty marks the largest ever imposed on a single entity in Australia. ANZ is currently the smallest by market capitalization among Australia's "Big Four" banks. However, the layoffs had a limited impact on the Australian dollar, as market focus shifted to the employment report due Thursday (employment is expected to rise by 21,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to increase by 4.2%).

Currently, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 2 to 3 times in 2025, totaling 50-75 basis points. However, if the new leadership lineup is fully confirmed, this expectation could be revised upward. Interest rate futures markets have already begun reflecting this shift, with the probability of three rate cuts this year rising from 50% to 70%, while the likelihood of four cuts (100 basis points) has increased from 20% to 45%. For the U.S. dollar, an unexpectedly dovish policy stance would exert significant downward pressure. On one hand, if the Fed cuts rates more aggressively than the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and other major central banks, the U.S. dollar's interest rate advantage would narrow, potentially driving capital toward higher-yielding non-dollar markets. On the other hand, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) may end its recent strength and enter a medium-term depreciation phase, thereby boosting commodity prices and the performance of emerging market assets. This week, key focuses include whether the nomination of Stephen Miran will be approved and whether the FOMC meeting minutes contain phrases such as monitoring "downside risks" or providing "policy support." If these signals materialize, markets may price in a steeper rate-cutting path earlier, leading to a continued weakening trend for the dollar.

Technical Analysis

Based on the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating lower volatility. Meanwhile, the moving averages are flattening with the price oscillating near the middle band. Previously, when the price reached a new high, the MACD line and the signal line formed a death cross, and the momentum histogram (bullish bars) gradually weakened, signaling a bullish divergence. With the RSI sitting at 55, the market sentiment remains neutral as traders are in a wait-and-see mode, while a potential breakout or reversal could occur at any time. Regarding the weekly chart, the price rose close to the 200-week EMA (at 0.667), a key technical resistance level, where the MACD showed a "kiss of the angels" (a bullish convergence pattern). Moreover, the RSI stays at 62, entering a strong bullish zone, while the lows are gradually rising, confirming an overall uptrend. However, historically, every time the price approaches the 200-week EMA, it has experienced a significant pullback. This time appears to be no exception, so it is recommended to sell at highs.

Long-Term Inflection Point！ AUD/USD Faces Key Resistance?_1

Long-Term Inflection Point！ AUD/USD Faces Key Resistance?_2

Trading Recommendations:

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.666

Target price: 0.63

Stop loss: 0.675

Support: 0.656/0.646/0.63

Resistance: 0.67/0.675/0.7

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

The combined impact of political uncertainty in France and widening fiscal deficits continues to unfold, but at the current pace, the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and forward guidance remain the core variables determining the short-term direction of the dollar and euro exchange rates.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17950

Entry Price

1.14000

1.19000

1.17394 +0.00011 +0.01%

105.0

Pips

Loss

1.14000

1.19003

Exit Price

1.17950

Entry Price

1.19000

Fundamentals

Ahead of the release of Eurozone July seasonally adjusted industrial production data and Germany's September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the EURUSD rose. The European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish rhetoric supported the euro against other currencies. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel stated on Tuesday that euro area interest rates are at a healthy level and added that upside inflation risks remain predominant. Schnabel indicated that economic growth could surpass potential output, with domestic demand offsetting the decline in exports. ECB policymaker Peter Kažimír noted on Monday that policy should not be adjusted due to a "slight deviation" from inflation targets, while warning of upside inflation risks. Kažimír further emphasized that interest rates have entered a neutral zone.

On September 15th, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved significant electoral gains in North Rhine-Westphalia, increasing its vote share to 14.5%, approximately tripling its support from five years prior, and securing its first-ever runoff mayoral candidacies in several industrial cities. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintained a leading position with 33.3% of the vote, while its federal coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), experienced a decline in support to 22.1%. The rise of the AfD reflects voter dissatisfaction with immigration policies and economic conditions. These results are viewed as the first critical test for Chancellor Merz's fragile governing coalition. The combined impact of political uncertainty in France and widening fiscal deficits continues to unfold, but at the current pace, the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and forward guidance remain the core variables determining the short-term direction of the dollar and euro exchange rates.

The dollar is facing its most severe challenge in several months. A confluence of factors—including expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve, increasing political pressure from President Trump, and technical selling momentum—has collectively driven the dollar to multi-month lows. With a near-certain rate cut by the Federal Reserve, market attention has shifted to the magnitude of the easing and forward guidance on future policy measures. The short-term trajectory of the dollar may depend on whether the Fed can maintain its independence while balancing economic data against political influences, as well as upcoming economic indicators that could either reinforce or challenge the prevailing dovish stance.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD in the 1D timeframe exhibits diminishing bullish MACD momentum bars, with successive lower highs, yet the price continues to ascend strongly along the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, which are expanding upward. The SMAs are diverging upwards, and the RSI is at 60, indicating a strong bullish trend. If the current upward push fails to break the 1.183 resistance or breaks above but quickly retraces, a significant correction is likely. In the 1W timeframe, the price is oscillating upward along the EMA12, but the slope is moderating. The RSI is at 67 with decreasing highs, and a MACD death cross has occurred at high levels. The MACD line and signal line are pulling back toward the zero-axis but remain distant, suggesting the correction is incomplete. A break below the EMA12 could lead to declines toward the Bollinger middle band or the EMA50, at 1.15 and 1.124 respectively. It is recommended to go short at the highs.

Markets Await Interest Rate Decision! Euro Rises Slowly Amid Crisis!_1

Markets Await Interest Rate Decision! Euro Rises Slowly Amid Crisis!_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.1795

Target Price: 1.14

Stop Loss: 1.19

Support: 1.145, 1.14, 1.13

Resistance: 1.189, 1.19, 1.2

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The RSI currently stands at 46, showing neutral momentum, this leaves room for a minor downside push before a potential bullish reversal unfolds.

BUY EURGBP

EXP

EXPIRED

0.86300

Entry Price

0.86850

0.86150

0.87789 +0.00113 +0.13%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.86150

0.87328

Exit Price

0.86300

Entry Price

0.86850

The European Central Bank (ECB) has offered some support to the single currency by signaling that its rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end. The ECB kept its key rates unchanged during the September policy meeting, holding the deposit rate steady at 2.00% while emphasizing that its current stance is “appropriately positioned.” ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel struck a notably hawkish tone on Monday, stressing that interest rates are in a “good place” and warning that upside risks to inflation remain dominant.

Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and Executive Board member José Luis Escrivá, both scheduled for later on Monday, for further guidance on the central bank’s policy outlook.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating on Friday by one notch from ‘AA-’ to ‘A+’ with a stable outlook. According to Fitch, the downgrade reflects “rising political division and polarization,” which heightens the risk of further delays in fiscal consolidation.

Fortunately, France’s fiscal challenges appear to be largely contained and have not spilled over into the broader Eurozone. While the spread between French bonds and German bunds has widened, the spreads of Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bonds versus Germany show no signs of stress.

Schnabel reiterated on Monday that interest rates are in a “good place” and that upside inflation risks still dominate. She added that the impact of a stronger euro is likely to be limited while noting that Eurozone growth is expected to outperform its potential over the coming quarters. The combination of stable rates and Schnabel’s hawkish tilt reinforces the growing market view that the ECB’s easing phase is likely nearing its conclusion.

In the United Kingdom, a busy economic calendar will feature labor market data on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, and the Bank of England (BoE) policy decision on Thursday. Inflation in the UK has struggled to ease, hovering near the 4% threshold, which could justify further tightening by the BoE.

However, concerns about slowing economic growth in the UK may prompt traders to increase bets on additional rate cuts later this year. Market pricing currently reflects roughly a 33% chance that the BoE could lower interest rates once more before year-end. A Bullish Impulse May Emerge From the Triangle´s Base_1

A Bullish Impulse May Emerge From the Triangle´s Base_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP is currently trading within a triangle pattern, approaching its lower boundary. Historically, this lower area of the formation has provided bullish momentum, which could encourage buying interest around current levels. The 0.8632 zone has acted as a local support, making it a potential area for a rebound. Meanwhile, the 100- and 200-period moving averages are clustered around 0.8655 and 0.8656 on the 4-hour chart. The close proximity of these key averages suggests that EUR/GBP is consolidating within a tight range, which could allow for a continuation of range-bound movement before any breakout.

The RSI currently stands at 46, showing neutral momentum. This leaves room for a minor downside push before a potential bullish reversal unfolds. However, a breakdown below the lower trendline would invalidate the bullish setup, opening the door to a deeper corrective decline.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8630

Target price: 0.8685

Stop loss: 0.8615

Validity: Sep 26, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

On 16/09/2025, CAD/CHF is showing signs of weakening after failing to break above resistance near 0.5780–0.5790. The Canadian dollar is under pressure from weaker commodity demand and dovish hints, while the Swiss franc benefits from global risk aversion...

SELL CADCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.57600

Entry Price

0.57000

0.58050

0.57782 +0.00029 +0.05%

35.8

Pips

Profit

0.57000

0.57242

Exit Price

0.57600

Entry Price

0.58050

Overview

CAD/CHF is trading around 0.5760‑0.5765. Over the past week/month, the pair has been in a downtrend, gradually pushing lower from its highs in the 0.58s. The 52‑week high was near 0.6408, so the broader trend is clearly bearish over the longer term.

On the macro side, any softness in oil, or risk edges pushing toward safe havens, tends to benefit CHF relative to CAD. Also, CAD often is influenced by commodity prices and interest rate spreads; recent data do not strongly favor aggressive CAD strength.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment is mixed to bullish on CAD/CHF from many retail traders: ~90% are long, ~10% short according to one sentiment tracker. This large over‑weight in longs suggests potential for a contrarian move if price action turns negative (crowded long becomes weak support for rally).

On technical summary pages, some indicators show neutral to slight buy bias in very short timeframes, but longer timeframes and moving averages show sell pressure. The fact that price has been unable to push convincingly above resistance, combined with strong CHF behavior in times of risk or weak CAD, implies the downside may have edge.

Technical Analysis

CAD/CHF falters near 0.5780: Momentum shifts favor Swiss Franc rebound_1

On M15, price is near the upper band (resistance). The upper band is acting as a ceiling if the market fails to close above that, likely reversion toward the middle or lower band. Bands are moderately wide, suggesting recent volatility; but unless strong breakout, upper band resistance holds.

Likely price is above Tenkan and maybe around Kijun area but struggling to stay above the cloud or pushing into the Senkou Span area. The cloud ahead is weak or flat/slightly bearish, indicating a lack of strong uptrend momentum. If price breaks below Kijun or Tenkan, that confirms short term bearish shift.

The stochastic is approaching or in overbought territory. If it gives a bearish crossover, that supports a short signal. Because buyers are already stretched and price is near resistance, stochastic overbought increases odds of pull‑back or reversal.

Resistance zone around 0.5780‑0.5800 is key. If price rejects there, good chance of decline. Support zones around 0.5740‑0.5745 in short term, and further down toward 0.5700 if bearish momentum intensifies.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: Consider SELL CAD/CHF if price rallies into the 0.5760‑0.5790 area

Take Profit: First target around 0.5745‑0.5740. If the move accelerates, secondary target around 0.5700.

Stop Loss: Place SL above resistance zone, about 0.5805‑0.5810, to allow for volatility and possible spikes.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

On 16/09/2025, GBP/JPY faced strong rejection near the psychological level of 201.00 as intraday momentum faltered. While the pair attempted to push higher amid mixed risk sentiment, technical indicators on the M15 timeframe including Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku Cloud, and Stochastic Oscillator all signaled exhaustion

SELL GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

200.400

Entry Price

119.200

201.000

208.323 +0.079 +0.04%

56.7

Pips

Profit

119.200

199.833

Exit Price

200.400

Entry Price

201.000

Overview

Right now GBP/JPY is trading around 200.40. The pair is facing resistance close to 200.75 on the daily/intraday high side, and support around 197.93‑199.90 depending on how deep any pullback goes.

Recent trading shows GBP/JPY stuck below the barrier of ~200.40, unable to push convincingly above that level. There is sideways trading, with the bias overall appearing neutral to mildly bearish unless price breaks above resistance.

Market sentiment

Sentiment seems cautious. Many traders are likely waiting for major data or risk catalysts: Bank of England / Bank of Japan policy hints, global risk sentiment, possibly USD strength. There’s resistance at 200.40 which is psychologically and technically meaningful. Sellers may see opportunities if price fails to break above. Indicators are not strongly bullish momentum cannot sustain beyond resistance. Also, break below strong support levels could trigger further downside. No strong bullish drivers visible to push GBP/JPY much higher right now.

Technical analysis

GBP/JPY Choppy Below 201: Intraday Sellers Eye Key Reversal_1

On M15, price is near the upper band or slightly touching it, which suggests short‑term overbought conditions. If price rejects the upper band, a move downwards is likely. The bands are somewhat widened, meaning intraday volatility is moderate/high, so moves can be sharp.

Price is above/between Tenkan‑Sen and Kijun‑Sen somewhat, but struggles to clear the upper cloud or strong resistance zones. The cloud ahead is not strongly bullish (flat/slightly bearish or thin), indicating weak upward momentum. If price falls through Kijun or Tenkan, that would confirm more bearish pressure on this shorter timeframe.

Stochastic is close to or in the overbought region on M15. Potential for a bearish crossover / drop from overbought. If that happens near resistance (upper Bollinger band / around 200.40‑200.75), it would be a signal confirming sell bias.

So technically, conditions favor a short (SELL) setup given overbought, resistance holding, and weak cloud ahead.

Trade recommendation

Entry: Consider SELL GBP/JPY if price reaches ~200.40

Take Profit: ~199.20‑199.50.

Stop Loss: Place above resistance around 201.00‑201.25, ideally above recent high (~200.75) plus a buffer for volatility.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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