In Canada, the latest released Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July dropped to approximately 1.7% YoY, and the core inflation also showed a downward trend. This has significantly reduced the market's expectation of the Bank of Canada(BoC) maintaining a hawkish stance. As a result, it exerts pressure on the Canadian dollar in the medium term and tends to push up the USDCAD exchange rate.

In the United States, the market is closely watching the non-farm payroll data to be released today. The generally-referenced market expectation for non-farm payrolls is around 70,000 to 75,000, and the unemployment rate may slightly rise to about 4.3%. Notably, a series of recent employment-related data in the U.S. have signaled a slowdown in the labor market: the number of initial jobless claims has risen to approximately 237,000, and the employment growth rate in the private sector as measured by the ADP has declined from 106,000 in July to about 54,000. These data all point to a weakening recruitment momentum, leading the market to place a greater "bet" on "whether the Fed will turn dovish more quickly" ahead of the release of the non-farm payroll data.

On the daily chart, after a significant correction in the earlier period, the USDCAD formed a bottom consolidation range between 1.3560 and 1.3750. Recently, it broke through the upper boundary of this range, further expanding the upside potential. Meanwhile, the price retraced downward to 1.3750 twice, but failed to break below this level on both occasions. The candlestick chart shows a pattern of a breakout from the consolidation range followed by a retest for confirmation, which further strengthens the short-term bullish momentum.

Currently, the USDCAD is expected to face resistance at the previous high of 1.3924 in the short term. If it can effectively break through this level, the upside potential for the subsequent market will be unlocked. The first target is expected to reach 1.4160.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3780

Target Price: 1.4120

Stop Loss: 1.3720

Valid Until: September 19, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 1.3770/1.3725

Resistance: 1.3924/1.4160

The latest U.S. economic data has been mixed, reigniting concerns over the strength of the labor market. August ADP private payrolls came in at just 54,000, falling short of the expected 65,000. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 237,000 last week, the highest level since June. These soft data points have further bolstered expectations for a Fed rate cut. During the day, several Fed officials expressed support for a shift in policy, with Governor Waller notably endorsing a rate reduction at the September meeting.

However, since rate cut expectations were already well anticipated by the market, gold actually pulled back technically after the news broke, demonstrating the classic "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" reaction. On the policy front, Fed's "Big Three" member John Williams stated that if the economy performs in line with expectations, a gradual series of rate cuts would be appropriate. In contrast, 2026 FOMC voter Michelle Bowman held a dissenting view, arguing that inflation remains high and its trend is concerning, and she explicitly opposes a rate cut in September.

In trade news, President Trump officially signed an executive order on a U.S.-Japan trade agreement, announcing plans to impose a 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese goods. This move could trigger renewed trade tensions. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold a market operations meeting on October 16th. Amid shifting political dynamics, potential adjustments to Japan's currency policy may structurally impact the safe-haven appeal of both gold and the U.S. dollar.

Today's key data focus will be on the U.S. August employment report. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) are forecasted to rise by 80,000 (consensus: 75,000; previous: 73,000), with average hourly earnings expected to grow 0.3% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.2% (previous: 4.2%). Ahead of the NFP release, the market remains relatively stable, and the U.S. Dollar Index is not expected to see significant fluctuations.

Gold broke above the Bollinger Upper Band but faced selling pressure and pulled back in the 1H chart. It is currently finding support near the Bollinger Middle Band and consolidating. The MACD uptrend histogram is gradually weakening, while the price is failing to make new highs. Additionally, RSI peaks are declining, signaling a potential bearish divergence — suggesting a higher likelihood of short-term adjustment. Support levels are near the Bollinger Lower Band and the previous low, at approximately 3,533 and 3,511, respectively.

Judging from the daily chart, after breaking above the upper boundary of the triangular consolidation pattern, gold has been rising strongly along the Bollinger Upper Band. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, with moving averages diverging upwards as well. In addition, the MACD shows a golden cross, and the RSI stands at 74, entering overbought territory. This indicates that a pullback could occur at any time. Overall, after retesting the upper edge of the triangle, another upward breakout is likely. Initially, investors should sell and then buy at lows later.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 3550

Target price: 3510

Stop loss: 3580

Support: 3510/3480/3400

Resistance: 3580/3600/3700

In July, Australian household consumption saw a significant rise with year-on-year growth reaching 5.1%, the highest in 20 months. This was driven primarily by strong performance in service sectors such as healthcare, hospitality, aviation, and dining. This data has reinforced market expectations that the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting and may influence the pace of future rate cuts. RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that while the recovery in consumer spending is positive, continued strength could limit the scope for rate reductions. Q2 GDP figures, released at the same time, showed the economy grew by 0.6%, with discretionary spending rising by 1.4% (the fastest pace in three years). Unit labor costs increased by an annualized 4.4%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures. As a result, market expectations for RBA rate cuts have moderated somewhat. The probability of a rate cut in November is now around 90%, significantly lower than previously priced-in levels. While these figures provided a slight boost to the Australian dollar, the overall impact was limited.

Although ADP employment data has limited correlation with the official nonfarm payrolls report, multiple indicators suggest the labor market is slowing: job vacancies in July fell more than expected, and the number of unemployed individuals surpassed job openings for the first time since April 2021. The market is closely watching the upcoming August nonfarm payrolls report. If, as expected, only 75,000 jobs are added and the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, it would likely further cement expectations for rate cuts. However, even as labor market weakness emerges, inflationary pressures remain persistent, constraining the Federal Reserve's policy flexibility. The ISM services sector prices paid index remained elevated at 69.2 in August, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the service sector. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged rising employment risks and hinted at possible rate cuts, he also emphasized that inflation remains the central focus of monetary policy. The federal funds rate currently remains within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. Overall, although signs of softness in the U.S. labor market have boosted expectations for Fed rate cuts, persistently high service-sector inflation is lending short-term support to the U.S. dollar. The August ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0, reflecting strong service-sector demand and recovery. However, the employment index continued to contract, and ADP employment growth came in well below expectations, signaling a clear cooling in the labor market. As a result, market expectations for rate cuts have intensified, with a 98% probability now assigned to a cut at the September meeting. Nonetheless, the persistently high services price paid index at 69.2 underscores the stickiness of inflation, limiting the Fed's ability to pivot quickly to an easing stance. This tension between easing expectations and inflation realities is helping to underpin the U.S. dollar's relative strength. Ahead of the Friday nonfarm payrolls release, inflation concerns will likely remain the main factor supporting the U.S. dollar's resilience in the near term.

Based on the daily timeframe, the Bollinger Bands narrowed and converged, while the moving averages flattened. Now, the price is oscillating between the Bollinger Upper and Lower Bands. Besides, the MACD line and the signal line have returned above the zero axis, and the RSI stands at 53 (in neutral territory), suggesting a cautious, wait-and-see stance in the short term. A cross above 0.66 may drive the pair to 0.677, while a breach below 0.643 could drag the pair to 0.59. According to the weekly chart, after getting suppressed by the Bollinger Upper Band, the price broke below the EMA12 but found support at the Bollinger Middle Band, followed by a rebound. If it can hold above both the Bollinger Middle Band and EMA12, further upside toward the EMA200 may be possible. Failure to hold these levels could lead to a decline toward the Bollinger Lower Band, currently near 0.62. Therefore, selling at highs is recommended.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.653

Target price: 0.63

Stop loss: 0.67

Support: 0.638/0.635/0.63

Resistance: 0.657/0.66/0.667

Australia’s external sector delivered mixed signals earlier on Thursday. July’s trade figures revealed a notable improvement, with the surplus widening to AUD 7.31 billion compared to AUD 5.37 billion in June, comfortably beating forecasts of AUD 4.92 billion. The improvement came as exports climbed 3.3%, supported by stronger shipments of iron ore, liquefied natural gas, gold, and beef. At the same time, imports slipped 1.3%, weighed down by weaker demand for consumer goods and gold.

In international developments, Bloomberg reported late Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to implement his trade agreement with Japan. The deal establishes a maximum tariff of 15% on most imports from Japan, including automobiles and auto parts. Additionally, Japan committed to fast-tracking a 75% increase in U.S. rice purchases, a move seen as strengthening agricultural trade ties between Washington and Tokyo.

Domestically, U.S. economic data continued to offer a mixed picture. The labor market showed further signs of cooling as weekly initial jobless claims ticked higher. At the same time, the trade deficit widened in July while the services sector posted its strongest expansion in six months.

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade balance deficit surged to -$78.3 billion in July, its widest in four months, compared with -$59.1 billion in June and above market forecasts of -$75.7 billion. The data suggested that businesses may have accelerated imports to secure supplies before new tariffs came into effect. The report also revealed that the U.S. trade deficit with China expanded for the first time in several months, while the gap with Mexico widened modestly.

Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI rose to 52 in August from 50.1 previously, exceeding expectations of 51. The data signaled a firm rebound in service-sector activity. However, the Prices Paid subindex surged to 69.2—the second-highest level since late 2022—highlighting persistent inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs and elevated input costs.

Labor market data also disappointed. The ADP Employment Change for August showed a gain of 54K jobs, below the forecast of 65K, though July’s figure was revised upward from 104K to 106K. ADP’s Chief Economist, Dr. Nela Richardson, commented that while the year began with solid job creation, momentum has been rattled by rising uncertainty. She pointed to labor shortages, cautious consumer behavior, and disruptions related to artificial intelligence as factors slowing hiring.

On the monetary policy front, New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that he expects gradual rate cuts over time, provided the economy evolves in line with forecasts. Meanwhile, Fed Board nominee Stephen Miran stressed the importance of maintaining the central bank’s independence, though he refrained from commenting on whether he would advise President Trump against removing Fed officials.

AUD/USD is currently rebounding near its 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart, located at 0.6499 and 0.6506 respectively. The convergence of these averages suggests that price is hovering around its local mean, effectively acting as dynamic support. If this level holds firmly, the pair could stage another bullish leg toward 0.6590, where the next resistance level lies. Meanwhile, the RSI sits at 48, still within neutral territory, leaving room for a potential upward move.

On the downside, the next support level is seen near 0.6489. A break below this area could accelerate bearish momentum, with the following support situated at 0.6414. Any unexpected surprises in upcoming data releases could trigger a test of this lower region.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.6523

Target price: 0.6590

Stop loss: 0.6460

Validity: Sep 12, 2025 15:00:00

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order implementing his trade agreement with Japan, Bloomberg reported late Thursday. The deal sets a maximum tariff of 15% on most imports from Japan, including automobiles and auto parts. In addition, the White House announced that Japan has committed to fast-tracking a 75% increase in purchases of U.S. rice, a move designed to strengthen agricultural trade ties between the two nations.

On the domestic front, recent data continued to paint a mixed picture of the U.S. economy. The labor market showed further signs of cooling as initial jobless claims rose again last week. At the same time, the trade deficit widened in July, while the services sector posted its strongest expansion in six months.

The Commerce Department revealed that the U.S. trade balance deficit surged to -$78.3 billion in July, a four-month high, up from -$59.1 billion in June and wider than the forecast of -$75.7 billion. The data suggested that companies rushed to secure supplies ahead of tariff implementation. The report also showed the U.S. trade deficit with China expanded for the first time in several months, while the gap with Mexico widened slightly.

Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI climbed to 52 in August, up from 50.1 and beating expectations of 51. The increase signaled a solid improvement in service-sector activity. However, the Prices Paid subindex rose sharply to 69.2—the second-highest reading since late 2022—underscoring the inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs and higher input costs.

Employment data also disappointed. The ADP Employment Change for August showed an increase of 54K jobs, below the forecast of 65K, though July’s reading was revised higher from 104K to 106K. ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson commented that while the year began with robust job growth, momentum has been shaken by growing uncertainty. She cited a combination of factors behind the slowdown in hiring, including labor shortages, cautious consumers, and disruptions linked to artificial intelligence.

On the monetary policy front, New York Fed President John Williams stated that he expects gradual interest rate cuts over time, provided the economy evolves in line with forecasts. Separately, Fed Board nominee Stephen Miran emphasized the importance of preserving the central bank’s independence, though he declined to answer whether he would advise President Trump against dismissing Fed members.

In Europe, retail sales in the eurozone fell 0.5% month-on-month in July, a steeper drop than the expected 0.2% decline and reversing the 0.6% gain in June. On an annual basis, sales rose 2.2%, falling short of forecasts at 2.4% and well below June’s 3.5% growth rate. The data underscored weaker domestic demand, fueling concerns about the eurozone’s growth outlook, even as inflation remains slightly above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

EURUSD continues to display a bearish tone on the 4-hour chart, yet recent price action suggests that the pair is testing a descending trendline and may be preparing for a breakout to the upside. A decisive move higher could open the door for further gains, particularly if the pair sustains momentum above key technical levels. At present, the price is fluctuating between the 100- and 200-period moving averages, positioned at 1.1661 and 1.1642, respectively. A firm hold above these levels could pave the way for a rally toward 1.1733, where the next major resistance lies.

The RSI stands at 49, still within neutral territory, indicating room for directional movement. A dip toward support at 1.1590 remains possible, but as long as this level holds, buyers may attempt to initiate a fresh bullish leg. Conversely, a decisive breakdown below this support could invalidate the bullish setup and trigger a more extended downward move.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1595

Target price: 1.1730

Stop loss: 1.1540

Validity: Sep 12, 2025 15:00:00

WTI front-month futures remain capped by stiff resistance near USD 66.05/bbl, a level that has repeatedly rejected upside probes and entrenched the bearish bias in place since the August peak.

The contract's inability to sustain prints above this barrier underscores that bears retain firm technical control and are positioning for another leg lower. The recent slide through the short-term ascending trendline—previously acting as dynamic support—signals a momentum regime shift and unlocks a cluster of Fibonacci extension targets that now define the roadmap for the ongoing correction.

Based on the current technical setup, the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level is projected at USD 62.68/bbl, followed by the 50% extension at USD 61.61/bbl, which aligns closely with a prior congestion support zone. A more pronounced sell-off could extend toward the 61.8% extension at USD 60.54/bbl. While the 76.4% level—at USD 59.21/bbl—would be activated under a deeper bearish scenario.

Reports indicate that OPEC+ output exceeded guidance by approximately 400,000 b/d in August and that the group intends to raise production further over the coming months. In line with consensus, we expect the alliance to roll over October quotas. However, given the scale of the anticipated global surplus in 2026, the cartel is unlikely to inject additional barrels into an already oversupplied market. The asymmetric risk, therefore, lies in OPEC+ opting to reinstate output curbs rather than loosen them.

Crude is currently changing hands around USD 62.70, and bearish momentum appears to be accelerating after Friday's slide through the technically significant USD 62.78/bbl support. The moving-average complex is deteriorating rapidly: the short-dated rolling mean has rolled over and is on the verge of printing a bearish crossover, a setup that historically coincides with trend continuation to the downside.

The stochastic oscillator has already stalled at elevated levels and is now turning lower from its upper bound, signalling that the latest relief rally has run out of steam and fresh selling interest is emerging. Momentum gauges still sit above the oversold threshold, leaving room for an additional leg lower before reaching climactic territory.

The relative-strength index is mirroring the loss of upside traction, tracking a downward trend that typically validates sustained bearish price action while sellers retain the whip hand.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 64.50

Target Price: 58.37

Stop Loss: 65.80

Valid Until: September 19, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 62.52/62.16/61.36

Resistance: 63.44/64.95/65.72