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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6870.39
6870.39
6870.39
6895.79
6858.28
+13.27
+ 0.19%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47954.98
47954.98
47954.98
48133.54
47871.51
+104.05
+ 0.22%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23578.12
23578.12
23578.12
23680.03
23506.00
+72.99
+ 0.31%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.880
98.960
98.880
98.960
98.730
-0.070
-0.07%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16542
1.16549
1.16542
1.16717
1.16341
+0.00116
+ 0.10%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33217
1.33226
1.33217
1.33462
1.33136
-0.00095
-0.07%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4208.80
4209.23
4208.80
4218.85
4190.61
+10.89
+ 0.26%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.347
59.377
59.347
60.084
59.291
-0.462
-0.77%
--

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Share

Hungary's Preliminary November Budget Balance Huf -403 Billion

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Indian Rupee Down 0.1% At 90.07 Per USA Dollar As Of 3:30 P.M. Ist, Previous Close 89.98

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India's Nifty 50 Index Provisionally Ends 0.96% Lower

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[JPMorgan: US Stock Rally May Stagnate Following Fed Rate Cut] JPMorgan Strategists Say The Recent Rally In US Stocks May Stall As Investors Take Profits Following The Anticipated Fed Rate Cut. The Market Currently Predicts A 92% Probability Of The Fed Lowering Borrowing Costs On Wednesday. Expectations Of A Rate Cut Have Continued To Rise, Fueled By Positive Signals From Policymakers In Recent Weeks. "Investors May Be More Inclined To Lock In Gains At The End Of The Year Rather Than Increase Directional Exposure," Mislav Matejka's Team Wrote In A Report

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Russian Defence Ministry: Russian Forces Take Control Of Novodanylivka In Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Region

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Russian Defence Ministry: Russian Forces Take Control Of Chervone In Ukraine's Donetsk Region

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French Finance Ministry: Government Started Process To Block Temporarily Shein Platform

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Finance Minister: Indonesia To Impose Coal Export Tax Of Up To 5% Next Year

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[Trump Considering Fired Homeland Security Secretary Noem? White House Denies] According To Reports From US Media Outlets Such As The Daily Beast And The UK's Independent, The White House Has Denied Reports That US President Trump Is Considering Firing Homeland Security Secretary Noem. White House Spokesperson Abigail Jackson Posted On Social Media On The 7th Local Time, Calling The Claims "fake News" And Stating That "Secretary Noem Has Done An Excellent Job Implementing The President's Agenda And 'making America Safe Again'."

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HKEX: Standard Chartered Bought Back 571604 Total Shares On Other Exchanges For Gbp9.5 Million On Dec 5

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Morgan Stanley Reiterates Bullish Outlook On US Stocks Due To Fed Rate Cut Expectations. Morgan Stanley Strategists Believe That The US Stock Market Faces A "bullish Outlook" Given Improved Earnings Expectations And Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts. They Expect Strong Corporate Earnings By 2026, And Anticipate The Fed Will Cut Rates Based On Lagging Or Mildly Weak Labor Markets. They Expect The US Consumer Discretionary Sector And Small-cap Stocks To Continue To Outperform

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China's National Development And Reform Commission Announced That Starting From 24:00 On December 8, The Retail Price Limit For Gasoline And Diesel In China Will Be Reduced By 55 Yuan Per Ton, Which Translates To A Reduction Of 0.04 Yuan Per Liter For 92-octane Gasoline, 0.05 Yuan Per Liter For 95-octane Gasoline, And 0.05 Yuan Per Liter For 0# Diesel

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Tkms CEO: US Security Strategy Highlights Need For Europe To Take Care Of Its Own Defences

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USA S&P 500 E-Mini Futures Up 0.1%, NASDAQ 100 Futures Up 0.18%, Dow Futures Down 0.02%

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London Metal Exchange (LME): Copper Inventories Increased By 2,000 Tons, Aluminum Inventories Decreased By 2,500 Tons, Nickel Inventories Increased By 228 Tons, Zinc Inventories Increased By 2,375 Tons, Lead Inventories Decreased By 3,725 Tons, And Tin Inventories Decreased By 10 Tons

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Swiss Sight Deposits Of Domestic Banks At 440.519 Billion Sfr In Week Ending December 5 Versus 437.298 Billion Sfr A Week Earlier

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Czech November Jobless Rate 4.6% Versus Mkt Fcast 4.7%

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Czech Jobless Rate Unchanged At 4.6% In November

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Singapore Central Bank Data: November Foreign Exchange Reserves At $400.0 Billion

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Fitch On EMEA Homebuilders Says Weak Demand Is Likely To Constrain Completions And New Starts, Despite Easing Inflation And Gradual Rate Cuts

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          Gold Rally Explodes in April, Fueled by Fed Tensions and Risk-Off Mood

          Warren Takunda

          Commodity

          Summary:

          Gold prices surged to an all-time high of $3,500 as escalating political pressure on the Federal Reserve and a weakening U.S. dollar fueled safe-haven demand.

          BUY XAUUSD
          Close Time
          CLOSED

          3460.00

          Entry Price

          3640.00

          TP

          3330.00

          SL

          4208.80 +10.89 +0.26%

          1300.0

          Pips

          Loss

          3330.00

          SL

          3318.40

          Exit Price

          3460.00

          Entry Price

          3640.00

          TP

          Gold (XAU/USD) surged to a fresh record high of $3,500 in early Asian trading on Tuesday, notching more than 10% in gains for the month of April. While prices have since cooled to around $3,467 on profit-taking at the psychological barrier, the yellow metal remains firmly in bullish territory, reflecting deepening investor anxiety over the direction of U.S. monetary policy and political interference in the central bank.
          After a relatively muted start to the week amid lingering Easter holiday effects, markets roared back to life Tuesday, with gold emerging as the undisputed safe-haven champion. Reduced liquidity during Good Friday and Easter Monday led to subdued activity, but as full trading resumed, traders quickly repositioned in favor of the precious metal.
          The recent rally is not merely technical—it is fundamentally rooted in escalating political drama in Washington, D.C., and mounting skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s autonomy. U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest salvo against Fed Chair Jerome Powell has added a combustible mix of politics and policy confusion to an already jittery market environment.
          In one of his most provocative critiques yet, President Trump publicly labeled Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “loser” and signaled his intent to replace him if re-elected. Trump accused Powell of deliberately lowering interest rates under President Biden, only to resist doing the same now. Reports indicate that Trump is actively seeking avenues to oust Powell and install a more dovish figure at the helm of the central bank—one who would rapidly cut rates.
          This has spooked markets. The notion of political interference in the Fed’s decision-making process—a cornerstone of U.S. monetary stability—has prompted a rapid reassessment of risk across asset classes. Treasury yields have risen, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has slumped to its lowest level since 2022, and investors are now increasingly wary of the long-term credibility of U.S. assets.
          According to Jefferies, gold may now be “the only true safe-haven asset left,” as faith in U.S. Treasuries erodes under the weight of political uncertainty, trade tensions with China, and the worsening fiscal situation in Washington.
          “With the recent selloff in U.S. Treasuries, and a view that Treasuries are inextricably tied to tariffs, a trade war with China, and the U.S. fiscal situation, we believe gold is the only true safe-haven asset left,” Jefferies analysts said in a Tuesday note.

          Technical AnalysisGold Rally Explodes in April, Fueled by Fed Tensions and Risk-Off Mood_1

          From a technical standpoint, gold remains deeply bullish. Tuesday’s rally to $3,500 came amid strong buying momentum, though some cooling is now visible. Prices have retraced to around $3,440–$3,467 in early European trading as buyers pause to reassess. However, the pullback is modest, and there is little indication of a deeper correction at least for now.
          The broader uptrend remains intact, driven by a collapsing dollar, declining faith in U.S. Treasuries, and heightened geopolitical and economic risks. The recent price action is also consistent with a classic bullish continuation setup. Gold has been forming higher highs and higher lows, maintaining structure within an ascending channel. Only a break below the channel’s lower boundary would shift the short-term outlook toward caution.
          Key support is seen near $3,420 and $3,390, with resistance now sitting firmly at the psychological $3,500 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory, but momentum indicators have not yet signaled a full reversal.
          TRADE RECOMMENDATION
          BUY GOLD
          ENTRY PRICE: 3460
          STOP LOSS: 3330
          TAKE PROFIT: 3640
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Short-Term Trend Likely to Lean Downward

          Alan

          Forex

          Summary:

          GBPJPY is poised to face downward pressure amid divergent monetary policy expectations. Heightened expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) contrast with rising prospects for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), potentially weakening the pound against the yen.

          SELL GBPJPY
          Close Time
          CLOSED

          187.704

          Entry Price

          181.100

          TP

          190.200

          SL

          207.060 -0.040 -0.02%

          249.6

          Pips

          Loss

          181.100

          TP

          190.207

          Exit Price

          187.704

          Entry Price

          190.200

          SL

          Fundamentals

          United Kingdom:
          The UK's March Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered a YoY increase of 2.6%, marking the second consecutive month of deceleration and falling short of the market consensus of 2.7%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.4% YoY, in line with expectations but still indicative of elevated underlying inflationary pressures. This data has further solidified market expectations for a BoE rate cut in 2024, with interest rate futures now pricing in a 68% probability of a 25 basis point reduction in May.
          Wage growth in the UK also showed signs of moderation. Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, increased by 5.6% YoY in February, below the anticipated 5.7%. Retail sales data for March revealed a YoY increase of only 0.9%, highlighting a lack of momentum in domestic consumer demand and exacerbating downward pressure on the pound.
          Japan:
          Japan's core CPI, which excludes fresh food prices, climbed to 3.2% YoY in March, surpassing the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for the third consecutive year. The persistent overshooting of the inflation target has intensified market speculation that the BoJ may tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later.
          Additionally, geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the US-China trade dispute have heightened global supply chain concerns, prompting a surge in safe-haven flows into the yen. As a traditional safe-haven currency, the yen's appeal has significantly strengthened amid deteriorating risk sentiment, further bolstering its value.
          Overall, the increasing likelihood of a BoE rate cut in May is expected to weigh on the pound, while the rising probability of a BoJ rate hike is anticipated to provide a tailwind for the yen, potentially widening the spread between the two currencies.

          Technical Analysis

          Short-Term Trend Likely to Lean Downward_1
          From a technical perspective, the GBPJPY exchange rate remains entrenched within a well-defined descending channel on the daily chart, with the prevailing trend firmly skewed to the downside.
          After initially finding support at the lower boundary of the channel, the price staged a rebound but was subsequently capped by resistance at the psychological level of 190.00. The sustained inability to breach this resistance level has led to a gradual erosion of bullish momentum, suggesting that the market may be poised for another leg lower.
          On the downside, the initial target for further depreciation is likely to be the previous low at 184.37. Should this level be convincingly breached, the downside trajectory could extend further, with the potential for the exchange rate to probe towards the 180.00 mark.

          Trading Recommendations

          Trading Direction: Sell
          Entry Price: 187.80
          Target Price: 181.10
          Stop Loss: 190.20
          Valid Until: May 06, 2025, 23:00:00
          Support: 184.37/180.00
          Resistance: 188.76/190.00
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Price Action Suggests EURCHF Could Extend Its Recovery Rally

          Manuel

          Central Bank

          Economic

          Summary:

          The price appears to be gaining traction and could extend its upward move toward the 0.9430 area, provided it avoids a downside break below the recent lows.

          BUY EURCHF
          Close Time
          CLOSED

          0.93197

          Entry Price

          0.94300

          TP

          0.92200

          SL

          0.93703 +0.00041 +0.04%

          31.5

          Pips

          Profit

          0.92200

          SL

          0.93512

          Exit Price

          0.93197

          Entry Price

          0.94300

          TP

          The European Union (EU) is reportedly weighing adjustments to its methane regulations for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of an effort to smooth trade relations, according to Reuters. The European Commission is said to be refining its proposal ahead of trade negotiations with the United States, seeking to defuse tensions and potentially stave off a new round of tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump. Both parties have hinted that energy cooperation could serve as a cornerstone of a broader trade agreement.
          In parallel, the European Central Bank (ECB) has now delivered six consecutive interest rate cuts, marking the seventh reduction since its easing cycle began in June 2024. With inflation in the eurozone continuing to edge closer to the ECB’s 2% target, investors are increasingly pricing in the potential for additional policy accommodation. Broader concerns about external shocks and a weakening global growth backdrop have further solidified the rationale for maintaining an accommodative monetary stance.
          In its latest statement, the ECB reaffirmed that disinflation remains on track, but carefully avoided committing to a specific rate path. Instead, the central bank emphasized its data-dependent approach, pledging to reassess conditions meeting by meeting in light of what it described as a climate of “exceptional uncertainty.” Much of that uncertainty, officials noted, stems from the unpredictable nature of Trump’s evolving trade agenda, which continues to cast a shadow over Europe’s export-driven economy.
          During her press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed concern that escalating global trade tensions could undermine eurozone growth, primarily by eroding export demand. Exports remain a critical pillar of the euro area economy, and any sustained drag could delay the region’s recovery.
          Additional commentary from Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau suggested that inflationary risks related to global trade conflicts appear muted—possibly even skewing to the downside. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Madis Müller explained that the latest 25-basis-point cut was largely a response to declining energy prices and increased tariff-related pressure. He also noted that interest rates have ceased being a restrictive factor for the economy, as underlying indicators continue to show gradual, if uneven, improvement. However, Müller warned that ongoing global fragmentation could eventually exert upward pressure on prices, especially if supply chains become more localized.
          While Swiss markets remained closed for Easter Monday, the Swiss franc (CHF) gained strength in early trading. Mounting U.S.-China trade tensions have reignited fears of a global slowdown, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets such as the franc. Interestingly, President Trump has temporarily exempted certain key tech products, many of which are manufactured in China, from the latest round of proposed reciprocal tariffs—a move seen by some as an attempt to ease market nerves.
          Meanwhile, Switzerland’s trade surplus widened significantly to CHF 6.35 billion in March, up from CHF 4.8 billion in February—marking the largest monthly surplus since October 2024. The expansion was fueled by a 12.6% surge in exports, outpacing a 10.4% rise in imports, and further underscoring the strength of external demand.Price Action Suggests EURCHF Could Extend Its Recovery Rally_1

          Technical Analysis

          The EURCHF currency pair is currently showing signs of a bullish rebound after respecting a long-term ascending trendline. On April 11, the pair recorded a recent low near 0.9220, but since then, bears have failed to push the price to fresh lows. This inability to break down suggests a potential shift in momentum, with bulls slowly regaining control.
          The price appears to be gaining traction and could extend its upward move toward the 0.9430 area, provided it avoids a downside break below the recent lows. Notably, this upside level aligns with a zone of previous price congestion and lies just below the 100-period and 200-period moving averages, currently positioned at 0.9373 and 0.9470, respectively.
          Furthermore, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous downtrend intersects around the 0.9425 mark, adding to the confluence of resistance in that area. This enhances the likelihood that any ongoing pullback may continue climbing toward that cluster of key technical levels.
          The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 56, indicating a neutral stance. While not yet in overbought territory, the indicator suggests there’s still room for the rally to stretch further, especially in the absence of strong bearish catalysts. As long as price remains supported above its recent lows and continues to hold the ascending trendline, the pair could remain tilted to the upside in the near term.
          Trading Recommendations
          Trading direction: Buy
          Entry price: 0.9321
          Target price: 0.9430
          Stop loss: 0.9220
          Validity: Apr 30, 2025 15:00:00
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Downward Trend Unabated

          Eva Chen

          Economic

          Forex

          Summary:

          USDJPY has recorded a fifth consecutive weekly decline, with prices falling to the vicinity of 140.47 on Monday. Japan's core CPI, which rose by 3.2% YoY has further bolstered market expectations for a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), thereby fueling the yen's appreciation.

          SELL USDJPY
          Close Time
          CLOSED

          141.700

          Entry Price

          138.150

          TP

          145.000

          SL

          155.429 +0.084 +0.05%

          330.0

          Pips

          Loss

          138.150

          TP

          145.000

          Exit Price

          141.700

          Entry Price

          145.000

          SL

          Fundamentals

          Following the long weekend, the yen sustained its bullish momentum against the US dollar on Monday. Japan's inflation rate continues to exceed the target set by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), while concerns over a potential global economic recession triggered by trade wars persist. These factors have collectively dampened investor sentiment and driven capital towards the safe-haven Japanese yen.
          On Monday, Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported that the core CPI (excluding fresh food) increased by 3.2% YoY in March, accelerating from the previous month's 3.0% and aligning with market expectations. This marks the third consecutive year that the rate has surpassed the BOJ's 2% target. The core CPI excluding food and energy also rose more sharply, from 2.6% to 2.9%. While the overall CPI inflation rate eased slightly from 3.7% to 3.6%, which indicates that inflation remains persistently high.
          The most notable aspect of the inflation data was the significant surge in rice prices, which skyrocketed by 92.5%, marking the fastest rise since records began in 1971. This surge was driven by a combination of factors, including crop failures due to extreme heat in 2023 and panic buying by consumers following earthquake warnings last year. This marks the sixth consecutive month that rice inflation has hit a record high.
          In response, the Japanese government has intervened by releasing over 210,000 tons of rice from its reserves and plans to auction an additional 100,000 tons this month to stabilize supply.
          Apart from food, household durable goods prices rose by 6.5%, up from 5.4% in February. Energy prices, although still elevated, have seen a slight decline from 6.9% to 6.6%.
          Additionally, due to market turbulence related to tariffs, market expectations for the BOJ to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points this year have increased. Investors currently anticipate two rate hikes in Japan by December. Previously, despite data showing an acceleration in consumer price index (CPI) inflation, the market was highly skeptical about returning to the pre-tariff levels. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in June was as high as 80%. Currently, the yen appears to be attracting some safe-haven flows, with the USDJPY exchange rate falling to its lowest level since September.
           Downward Trend Unabated_1

          Technical Analysis

          USDJPY has extended its downward trend today, with intraday movements remaining biased to the downside. A break above the recent downtrend channel would signal an acceleration of the decline. The current decline began at 151.27 (a Summation AB=CD pattern), and is expected to extend below the 139.57 support level.
          On the upside, a breach of the minor resistance at 144.07 would turn the intraday trend neutral again. However, as long as the 151.20 resistance level holds, the overall trend will remain bearish.

          Trading Recommendations

          Trading Direction: Sell
          Entry Price: 141.70
          Target Price: 138.15
          Stop Loss: 145.00
          Valid Until: May 06, 2025, 23:55:00
          Support: 140.47/139.55/138.04
          Resistance: 142.17/144.06/144.61
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          Uptrend Tests Challenge Multi-Year Highs

          Eva Chen

          Central Bank

          Summary:

          EURUSD registered a robust advance of over 1.2% on Monday, breaking through the 1.1500 mark and reaching its highest level since November 2021. Heightened concerns over a potential US economic recession have intensified the ongoing US dollar sell-off, thereby fueling the euro's ascent.

          BUY EURUSD
          Close Time
          CLOSED

          1.15029

          Entry Price

          1.18450

          TP

          1.13300

          SL

          1.16542 +0.00116 +0.10%

          172.9

          Pips

          Loss

          1.13300

          SL

          1.13295

          Exit Price

          1.15029

          Entry Price

          1.18450

          TP

          Fundamentals

          The US dollar's sell-off continued unabated following the long weekend. EURUSD touched 1.1500 on Monday for the first time since November 2021, with the pair gaining over 1% on the day. Currently, market confidence in US economic policy is virtually nonexistent. The dollar, which has been at the core of a system established over eight decades, appears to be under increasing pressure.
          The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year last Thursday in an effort to reduce borrowing costs. Recently, global market volatility related to trade has further strengthened the case for additional policy easing. The ECB noted that "increased uncertainty could dampen confidence among households and firms. Adverse and volatile reactions to trade tensions could have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors could further weigh on the euro area economic outlook." However, ECB President Christine Lagarde provided little guidance on future actions, reiterating that uncertainties remain too high for the ECB to make any commitments, with decisions to be made based on incoming data.
          Market Outlook。What lies ahead for EURUSD? We believe that the Trump administration must exercise extreme caution when intervening in the overall state of the US balance of payments.
          When considering measures that could abruptly reduce the trade deficit and expand the current account deficit, the impact on the capital account must be taken into account. A sudden narrowing of the US trade deficit implies a corresponding contraction in the capital account surplus. This shift indicates a decline in foreign demand for US bonds, which in turn exerts downward pressure on the US dollar while boosting non-US currencies.
          However, it remains to be seen whether the US government can effectively and sustainably reduce the trade deficit through these "blunt" measures. How will global trade and the global financial system evolve in the future? It is premature to draw any definitive conclusions at this stage.
          Uptrend Tests Challenge Multi-Year Highs_1

          Technical Analysis

          EURUSD broke above 1.1500 on Monday, resuming its upward trajectory and moving higher throughout the session.
          The current rally originated from 1.0176, with the target level set at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the 1.0358 to 1.0953 range, at 1.1694. Further gains could test the 1.1845 level.
          On the downside, a break below the minor support at 1.1357 would turn the intraday trend neutral, leading to consolidation before another potential rebound.

          Trading Recommendations

          Trading Direction: Buy
          Entry Price: 1.1450
          Target Price: 1.1845
          Stop Loss: 1.1330
          Valid Until: May 06, 2025, 23:55:00
          Support: 1.1500/1.1473/1.1387
          Resistance: 1.1595/1.1694/1.1910
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          Short-Term Positive Stimuli Fail to Reverse Downward Trend

          Alan

          Commodity

          Summary:

          Recent WTI crude oil prices have rebounded due to short-term positive catalysts, but the overall oversupply in the oil market persists, and the downward trend remains intact.

          SELL WTI
          Close Time
          CLOSED

          62.244

          Entry Price

          51.200

          TP

          65.500

          SL

          59.347 -0.462 -0.77%

          551.0

          Pips

          Profit

          51.200

          TP

          56.734

          Exit Price

          62.244

          Entry Price

          65.500

          SL

          Fundamentals

          Last week, WTI crude oil rallied on optimism over U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC+ members' compliance with compensation production cuts. By the week's close, WTI surged over $4.
          However, the actual impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran is likely limited. The latest sanctions target Chinese companies importing Iranian crude, which could temporarily reduce Iran's exports by ~300,000 b/d (15% of its total exports). However, "shadow fleets" and transshipment trade may sustain partial flows. The sanctions are more likely to trigger market sentiment fluctuations than create a material supply gap, similar to the February 2025 sanctions that drove prices up by only 3% before retreating.
          Meanwhile, compensation cuts by some OPEC+ members may be insufficient to address immediate oversupply. Iraq and Kazakhstan's proposed cuts (~300,000 b/d) aim to offset prior overproduction, but compliance remains questionable. Russia's March output already exceeded quotas at 10.5 million b/d, keeping OPEC+ total supply 600,000 b/d higher than 2024 levels. Overall, an oversupply situation persists.
          In summary, while short-term positives spurred a WTI rally, oversupply constraints limit upside potential, and the bearish trend remains unchanged.

          Technical Analysis

          Short-Term Positive Stimuli Fail to Reverse Downward Trend_1
          Presented in the daily chart, WTI crude oil has broken above the $62.5 resistance level on positive sentiment, testing the next hurdle at $65.00. However, the moving average system maintains a bearish alignment, signaling an overarching downward trend. The rally's upside is likely capped.
          Currently, if WTI weakens below $65.00 after a rebound, the prior downtrend will resume. In the near term, wait for the rally to peak, then prioritize selling at highs.

          Trading Recommendations

          Trading direction: Sell
          Entry price: 62.90
          Target price: 51.20
          Stop loss: 65.50
          Valid Until: May 5, 2025, 23:00:00
          Support: 54.75/50.00
          Resistance: 64.13/65.00
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Australian Dollar Rises Amid Trade Turmoil, Fed Uncertainty, and China's Upbeat Economic Data

          Warren Takunda

          Economic

          Summary:

          The Australian Dollar (AUD) climbed against the US Dollar (USD) as global markets responded to the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) decision to hold key lending rates steady.

          BUY AUDUSD
          Close Time
          CLOSED

          0.64099

          Entry Price

          0.65425

          TP

          0.63100

          SL

          0.66371 -0.00012 -0.02%

          10.2

          Pips

          Profit

          0.63100

          SL

          0.64201

          Exit Price

          0.64099

          Entry Price

          0.65425

          TP

          The Australian Dollar opened the week with renewed strength, recovering from prior session losses as it rode a wave of broad-based US Dollar weakness and a modest pickup in risk sentiment. This recovery came on the back of key decisions and data points from both China and the United States, as well as growing geopolitical friction that could reshape the near-term outlook for global trade.
          The People's Bank of China (PBoC) held its one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.10% and maintained the five-year rate at 3.60%, in a widely anticipated decision that signaled stability rather than further stimulus. While the decision itself did not shock the market, it provided reassurance that Beijing is confident in the current trajectory of its post-COVID recovery. For Australia, whose economy is heavily tethered to Chinese demand for raw materials, such as iron ore and coal, this was a subtle but meaningful vote of confidence.
          However, it was not just China’s monetary stance that shaped the market narrative. Tensions between Washington and Beijing surged again after the Biden administration moved to impose tariffs on Chinese vessels docking at US ports. This escalatory move, aimed ostensibly at protecting American shipping and port security, sent shivers through global logistics and raised the specter of a new chapter in the trade war saga.
          Yet, in a somewhat contradictory tone, President Donald Trump — who continues to influence economic policy discourse despite no longer holding office — announced that certain key technology products would be exempted from the proposed “reciprocal” tariffs. These exemptions primarily concern tech components produced in China, further underscoring Australia’s indirect exposure to any easing or tightening in US-China trade dynamics. Trump later noted that China had made conciliatory overtures and that he was “not looking to go higher on China tariffs,” adding a degree of market relief. He even expressed optimism that a deal could be reached in as little as three to four weeks, tempering the earlier tension with cautious hope.
          The net effect was clear: risk appetite improved, and the US Dollar began to slip, dragging the US Dollar Index (DXY) down to around 98.50 — its lowest level since April 2022. The sharp decline was exacerbated by a fall in the 2-year Treasury yield, which dropped more than 1% to 3.75%, reflecting investor expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon need to pivot its policy in light of a softening economy and cooling inflation.
          Indeed, the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print confirmed that price pressures are moderating. Headline CPI eased to 2.4% year-on-year in March, down from 2.8% in February and below expectations of 2.6%. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, came in at 2.8% versus a forecast of 3.0%. On a monthly basis, the headline figure dipped by 0.1%, while core prices edged up a mere 0.1%.
          While disinflation is broadly welcomed by the market, it now collides with worrying signs of economic fatigue. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that the US faces the dual risk of a stagnant economy alongside stubborn inflation — a stagflation scenario that complicates policy responses. Powell’s remarks were overshadowed, however, by reports that President Trump is mulling the possibility of removing Powell from his position, reflecting growing political frustration over the Fed’s cautious approach. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett later confirmed that the idea was under discussion, although the immediate market reaction was relatively muted.
          In terms of labor market data, the picture remains mixed. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12 fell to 215,000 — better than expected — but continuing claims rose to 1.885 million, suggesting that while layoffs may be slowing, displaced workers are struggling to re-enter the workforce. This labor market dynamic, combined with softer inflation, suggests the Fed may face intensifying pressure to consider rate cuts sooner than previously planned.
          Back in Australia, the economic signals were similarly nuanced. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in March, just shy of expectations at 4.2%, while net job creation stood at 32,200 — a healthy figure but below the forecast of 40,000. At the same time, the Westpac Leading Index’s six-month annualized growth rate eased to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February, hinting at some softening in forward-looking momentum.
          Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) March 31–April 1 meeting revealed ongoing uncertainty around the timing of the next interest rate adjustment. While the Board flagged the upcoming May meeting as a potential opportunity to reassess policy, it emphasized that no decision had yet been made, pointing to the wide range of upside and downside risks that continue to confront the Australian economy.
          Meanwhile, China delivered a strong batch of macroeconomic data, providing crucial support for the Aussie. The Chinese economy expanded by 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the growth pace seen in the previous quarter and exceeding forecasts of 5.1%. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 1.2%, slightly below the 1.4% estimate but still resilient. Retail sales in China surged by 5.9% year-on-year, comfortably beating the 4.2% forecast and February’s 4% print. Industrial production jumped by 7.7%, far outpacing both the prior month and market expectations. For Australia, these figures serve as a strong tailwind, given the nation’s reliance on Chinese demand for its exports.
          Technical AnalysisAustralian Dollar Rises Amid Trade Turmoil, Fed Uncertainty, and China's Upbeat Economic Data_1
          Technically, the AUD/USD pair has shifted from a protracted downtrend to a confirmed bullish reversal. The pair broke above its recent consolidation range, which had served as a resistance zone between 0.63875 and 0.64100. That zone now acts as strong support. Prices are currently trading above all key exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are aligned in a bullish formation, with each average trending upward. This technical configuration signals strong upward momentum and improves the outlook for further gains.
          Moreover, the recent bullish engulfing candle at the breakout point confirms buyer interest and volume strength, lending credence to the view that this recovery is not merely a short-term bounce but the beginning of a more sustainable rally. The next significant resistance lies around 0.65425, a level where traders may begin to take profits.
          TRADE RECOMMENDATION
          BUY AUDUSD
          ENTRY PRICE: 0.64100
          STOP LOSS: 0.63100
          TAKE PROFIT: 0.65425
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share
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          The risk of loss in trading financial instruments such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs and crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

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