Gold Hits Two-Week High as Fed Independence Concerns and Rate-Cut Hopes Drive Safe-Haven Demand

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold climbed to a two-week high near $3,385 on Tuesday, supported by political pressure on the Federal Reserve and renewed expectations of rate cuts, though upcoming U.S. economic data could test the rally.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3375.00

Entry Price

3440.00

3340.00

4191.27 -6.64 -0.16%

51.2

Pips

Profit

3340.00

3380.12

Exit Price

3375.00

Entry Price

3440.00

Gold prices extended their upward momentum on Tuesday, reaching a two-week peak near $3,385 per ounce in early European trade, as investors weighed a mix of political and economic developments in the United States that have reignited demand for the traditional safe-haven asset.

The rally comes amid growing concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following reports that U.S. President Donald Trump intends to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. While the political move has yet to be confirmed, even the hint of interference in the Fed’s structure has heightened market anxiety. Investors fear that undermining the central bank’s autonomy could destabilize monetary policy credibility, pushing many towards safer assets such as gold.

At the same time, speculation that the Fed may soon resume its rate-cutting cycle added fuel to the bullion rally. Lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making the metal more attractive compared to government bonds or cash holdings. Traders are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of policy easing before year-end, especially as signs of a slowdown in consumer spending and manufacturing begin to surface across the U.S. economy.

Attention now shifts to a series of U.S. data releases that could provide further clues about the Fed’s next steps. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, Durable Goods Orders, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index are all due later on Tuesday, with market participants looking for evidence of whether economic momentum is weakening or merely stabilizing. Stronger-than-expected readings could temporarily bolster the dollar and cap gold’s gains.

The more decisive test, however, will come later this week when second-quarter GDP figures and July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—are released. Any upside surprise in growth or inflation could strengthen the Greenback, thereby applying downward pressure on dollar-denominated gold prices. Conversely, softer data would reinforce bets on rate cuts, potentially extending bullion’s advance.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold remains firmly in positive territory. On the daily chart, the precious metal continues to trade above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reinforcing the view that the broader uptrend is intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above the neutral 50 mark, currently hovering around 55, which suggests bullish momentum in the near term.

Earlier in today’s session, gold briefly tested the $3,350 level before rebounding sharply, with the market now consolidating around $3,380. Analysts argue that this rebound underscores the strength of near-term support levels and the appetite for gold on dips.

A sustained breakout above $3,380 could pave the way for a retest of the psychological $3,440 threshold. A decisive move beyond this level would likely invite further buying pressure, potentially opening the door to new record highs if U.S. data underwhelms later in the week.

Still, risks to the upside remain tied to the resilience of the U.S. economy. Should incoming figures show stronger consumer confidence, robust orders for durable goods, or hotter-than-expected inflation, gold’s rally may falter as the dollar strengthens and Treasury yields rebound.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3375

STOP LOSS: 3340

TAKE PROFIT: 3440

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Australian Dollar nudged higher toward the 0.6500 mark on Tuesday as the US Dollar slipped following President Trump’s abrupt attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64900

Entry Price

0.66500

0.64400

0.66205 -0.00178 -0.27%

39.7

Pips

Profit

0.64400

0.65297

Exit Price

0.64900

Entry Price

0.66500

The Australian Dollar was trading firmer on Tuesday, with the AUD/USD pair climbing back toward the closely watched psychological threshold of 0.6500 during European hours. The move comes as the US Dollar faced renewed selling pressure, after a political storm erupted in Washington that rattled investor confidence in the Federal Reserve’s independence.

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major peers, was down 0.2% to around 98.20, reversing some of Monday’s gains. The decline followed reports that US President Donald Trump had issued a letter late Monday terminating Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over allegations tied to mortgage statements.

The episode marks a fresh escalation in Trump’s long-standing tensions with the central bank. In the letter, the President accused Cook of making “false statements” linked to one or more mortgage agreements, a claim that Cook and her attorneys have categorically rejected. In a sharply worded response, Cook said she would continue to carry out her duties as a Fed Governor, arguing that the president had “no authority to do so under the law.”

Market watchers viewed the move as another strike against the Fed’s institutional independence. Analysts at Capital.com told Reuters that the real concern is not the specific allegations, but rather Trump’s intent. “The concern is the intent of the Trump administration: it’s not to preserve Fed integrity, it’s to install Trump’s own people at the Fed,” they noted.

This is not the first time the White House has clashed with the central bank. Trump had previously threatened to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who resisted political pressure to cut rates aggressively and instead argued for maintaining policy stability. The latest episode has heightened investor unease that political interference could undermine policy credibility, a factor that weighed on the Greenback in early European trade.

Attention now turns to incoming US data, with July durable goods orders due at 12:30 GMT. Economists anticipate another decline, but a shallower contraction of around 4% compared with the 9.3% slump recorded in June. A weaker reading could further dent the US Dollar, especially as markets already doubt the Fed’s ability to act independently in the current political climate.

On the Australian side, the currency has managed to stay relatively resilient despite dovish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Minutes from the RBA’s August policy meeting suggested officials see scope for additional rate cuts before year-end, though policymakers emphasized that the pace of easing would depend heavily on incoming domestic data and the evolving global economic outlook. For now, the Australian Dollar remains buoyed by external drivers, particularly shifts in US Dollar sentiment.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD has staged a modest recovery, bouncing off support provided by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). This short-term momentum allowed the pair to retest key resistance levels around 0.6495–0.6520. The region has served as a ceiling for months, repeatedly capping upside attempts.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing mixed signals after briefly entering overbought territory. While temporary weakness may surface, a confirmed breakout above 0.6520 could pave the way for a more decisive bullish leg, targeting 0.6650 in the near term. Conversely, failure to hold above 0.6450 could re-expose the pair to downside pressure toward 0.6350.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6490

STOP LOSS: 0.6440

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6650

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

The dovish stance outlined in the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on the Australian dollar, aligning with the recent dovish shift observed in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy outlook.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64800

Entry Price

0.63000

0.66300

0.66205 -0.00178 -0.27%

64.5

Pips

Loss

0.63000

0.65445

Exit Price

0.64800

Entry Price

0.66300

Fundamentals

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes indicate that, although the current monetary policy remains "somewhat contractionary," the board considers a further reduction in the cash rate over the next year to be feasible. However, the pace of easing will depend on upcoming economic data releases and shifts in global risk sentiment. Board members also reaffirmed that Australia continues to have prospects for full employment and inflation targets, providing room for gradual policy loosening. Overall, the minutes suggest a more dovish stance than previously anticipated, opening the door for potential rate cuts in the coming months. Nonetheless, officials remain cautious and data-dependent, with forthcoming CPI and labor market reports expected to significantly influence the central bank's next moves. The dovish stance outlined in the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on the Australian dollar, aligning with the recent dovish shift observed in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy outlook.

The U.S. President Donald Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Board Member Lisa Cook, citing allegations of misconduct related to mortgage loan applications, which has become a focal point. Cook immediately refused, asserting that the President lacks the authority to remove her and pledged to remain in her position. This confrontation has cast a shadow over the Federal Reserve, which is preparing for the critical policy meeting in September. Meanwhile, Trump's trade rhetoric has intensified, warning that countries implementing digital services taxes will face substantial new tariffs on U.S. exports and restrictions on American semiconductor supplies. This warning targets dozens of nations, reigniting longstanding disputes that many investors had believed were settled. The market widely anticipates the U.S. dollar may further depreciate unless economic data unexpectedly improves.

Technical Analysis

In the 1D timeframe of the AUDUSD, the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with the SMAs diverging downward. The price is oscillating along the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, exhibiting a bearish decline. The MACD's MACD line and signal line are below the zero-axis, and the RSI is at 47, indicating a short-term bearish market sentiment. The likelihood is for continued sideways movement or further decline, with support levels at psychological round numbers and previous lows, specifically at 0.64 and 0.635. In the 1W timeframe, the price faced resistance at the upper Bollinger Band and subsequently broke below the EMA12. Currently, it is supported by the middle Bollinger Band and has rebounded; if the support holds, the price may rise toward the EMA200. Conversely, if the support fails, the price could decline toward the lower Bollinger Band, which is approximately at 0.62. It is recommended to go short at the highs.

Trend Remains Unchanged! Where is the Bottom for the AUDUSD?_1

Trend Remains Unchanged! Where is the Bottom for the AUDUSD?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 0.648

Target Price: 0.63

Stop Loss: 0.663

Support: 0.638, 0.635, 0.63

Resistance: 0.657, 0.66, 0.663

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Powell's dovish statements, combined with Trump's interference in the Federal Reserve's independence and the uncertainties in U.S.-China trade relations, create a triple positive catalyst supporting the strengthening of gold prices.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3377.50

Entry Price

3430.00

3349.00

4191.27 -6.64 -0.16%

125.4

Pips

Profit

3349.00

3390.04

Exit Price

3377.50

Entry Price

3430.00

Fundamentals

Last week, in his Jackson Hole speech, Powell signaled a dovish shift, emphasizing a reassessment of the monetary policy framework and the inflation-unemployment relationship. This stance was interpreted by the market as a potential pivot by the Federal Reserve towards a more accommodative stance, leading to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar and real yields, thereby directly enhancing gold's relative appeal and triggering concentrated inflows of safe-haven and speculative buying.

Subsequently, this week, significant political developments occurred in the U.S.—specifically, increased intervention by the Trump administration in the Federal Reserve's governance structure, including publicly announcing the removal or dismissal of a Federal Reserve Board member. This has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve; such intertwining of political influence and monetary policy typically heightens risk aversion and skepticism regarding policy credibility, thereby providing short-term support for gold as a systemic safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, Trump's assertive stance on China trade policies and strategic materials such as rare earth elements, coupled with the threat of potentially high tariffs, has heightened global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Although rare earths are classified as industrial metals with limited direct impact on gold supply and demand, such trade restrictions and sanctions rhetoric can elevate market expectations of systemic risk and long-term inflation premiums, thereby indirectly prompting institutional investors and sovereign funds to adopt gold as a hedging asset.

Technical Analysis

Triple Bullish Catalysts Converge, Prompting a Renewed Surge in Gold Bullish Momentum_1

In the 4H timeframe, gold prices have maintained a range around US$3,370 during the European session today. Currently, the price has approached recent highs and is repeatedly testing the resistance zone between US$3,387 and US$3,400. A significant volume breakout followed by a retest could technically open upward extension toward US$3,420 or higher. Conversely, if a temporary stabilization in the U.S. dollar or Treasury yields leads to a pullback, key support levels are at approximately US$3,367 and US$3,350. Breaking below these supports would significantly amplify the short-term correction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3370.00

Target Price: 3430.00

Stop Loss: 3349.00

Valid Until: September 9, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 3367.31, 3351.25

Resistance: 3386.49, 3400.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Economic

Summary:

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

147.700

Entry Price

146.200

149.000

155.825 +0.480 +0.31%

57.0

Pips

Profit

146.200

147.130

Exit Price

147.700

Entry Price

149.000

Fundamentals

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo believes that tightening in the labor market is driving wage growth, and this trend has now spread from large enterprises to small and medium-sized businesses. Rising wages could further accelerate, forming the basis for another interest rate hike. Japan's working-age population continues to decline, but long-term deflationary expectations have hindered companies from raising prices and wages. The global inflation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic has lifted Japan's economy out of deflation, and wages and labor shortages have become one of the most pressing economic issues. Ueda Kazuo emphasized that unless there is a significant decline in demand, the job market will remain tight and continue to drive wages upward. He pointed out that wages have risen significantly for three consecutive years during spring labor-management negotiations, and labor mobility is also increasing. Young people are seeking higher-paying jobs, forcing companies to raise wages. Demographic changes are exacerbating labor shortages and maintaining upward pressure on wages. Overall, expectations of interest rate hikes will have a positive impact on the yen.

The dollar is facing selling pressure as the independence of the Federal Reserve has been weakened. The Federal Reserve is an autonomous institution whose decisions are not influenced by politics. However, the independence of the Federal Reserve has been weakened after US President Donald Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage allegations. Last week, President Trump demanded her resignation after his political allies accused her of holding mortgages in Michigan and Georgia. According to The Wall Street Journal, Cook responded by saying that she had "no intention of being forced to resign". According to Reuters, Saxo Bank analysts said, "Cook's dismissal and the Fed chair's resignation are seen as a serious attack on the Fed's independence, and they expect interest rates to fall soon. The market is not panicking, but it is readjusting; Cook's resignation makes early interest rate cuts more likely."

Technical Analysis

From a 4-hour chart perspective, the price of the USD/JPY is oscillating between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands and is currently moving sideways near the middle Bollinger Band. The MACD line and the signal line have returned near the zero axis. The RSI reading is 52, which is near the midpoint, indicating a wait-and-see market sentiment that could shift at any time. If the price breaks above and stabilizes at the middle Bollinger Band, it is likely to rise toward the psychological barrier and previous high levels at 148 and 148.52, respectively. If it fails to break above, it may decline to around 145.8. From a daily chart perspective, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the price oscillating around the middle band. After forming a death cross, the MACD line and the signal line have pulled back near the zero axis. The RSI reading is 51, hovering near the midpoint. Overall, the daily chart suggests a consolidation phase, with a potential directional breakout at any time. Subsequent focus will be on whether the price can hold above the middle Bollinger Band. If it succeeds, an upward breakthrough toward 149.5 is likely. Otherwise, a decline to around 146 may occur. For the strategy, it is recommended to go short at highs in the short term.

Bank of Japan May Raise Interest Rates Again! Will the USD/JPY Continue to Decline?_1

Bank of Japan May Raise Interest Rates Again! Will the USD/JPY Continue to Decline?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 147.7

Target price: 146.2

Stop loss: 149

Support: 145.8, 142.6, 141.6

Resistance: 148.5, 149.6, 151

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This confluence of technical factors could reignite bullish momentum, as the 100-period MA has recently acted as a catalyst for upside moves.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38150

Entry Price

1.39300

1.37600

1.38483 +0.00336 +0.24%

55.0

Pips

Loss

1.37600

Exit Price

1.38150

Entry Price

1.39300

President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions once again, threatening to impose “additional subsequent tariffs” as well as restrictions on the export of advanced technology and semiconductors. His remarks came in retaliation for the digital services taxes imposed on U.S. tech companies, signaling a potential new front in the trade dispute.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook firmly stated on Tuesday that she has no intention of stepping down, despite President Trump’s announcement that he intends to dismiss her. The clash underscores a deepening conflict between the White House and the central bank at a sensitive moment for monetary policy.

In a separate development, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan highlighted on Monday the need for more effective policy communication while considering key adjustments to the Fed’s strategy. She argued that responding solely to banks’ rising short-term demand for reserves would risk perpetually expanding the Fed’s balance sheet. Instead, she stressed the importance of focusing on banks’ longer-term reserve needs, with the central bank maintaining a balance sheet anchored mainly in long-dated U.S. Treasuries.

On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in September, noting that “downside risks to the labor market are rising” and that the shifting balance of risks may justify recalibrating policy. He also remarked that tariffs could generate a “one-off” effect on inflation, which might fade over time and allow for a less restrictive stance. However, Powell warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, while risks to employment are leaning lower, leaving the Fed in a delicate balancing act.

In the housing sector, U.S. new home sales slipped by 0.6% in July, falling from 656,000 to 652,000 units.

Trade relations also saw a shift at the end of the week. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Ottawa will lift retaliatory tariffs on all U.S. goods covered under the USMCA, effective September 1. The rollback applies to more than $21 billion worth of U.S. exports, including consumer goods such as wine, juice, appliances, and packaged foods, representing a meaningful de-escalation in cross-border tensions.

Carney underscored that Canada “currently has the best trade deal with the U.S.” and emphasized the importance of maintaining that advantage. Nonetheless, tariffs on strategic sectors such as autos, aluminum, and steel will remain in place, as both sides continue discussions to address ongoing trade disputes. He added that “it is possible to reach an agreement with the U.S. on strategic sectors before the official USMCA review window in 2026,” hinting at proactive efforts to resolve potential flashpoints ahead of schedule. Key Support Cluster May Trigger Bullish Rebound_1

Key Support Cluster May Trigger Bullish Rebound_1

Technical Analysis

USDCAD has found support around the 1.3810 area, a level reinforced by an ascending trendline as well as the 100-period moving average, currently sitting at 1.3802. This confluence of technical factors could reignite bullish momentum, as the 100-period MA has recently acted as a catalyst for upside moves. If this pattern repeats, fresh buying interest may emerge as price retests this area, with the 200-period MA positioned lower at 1.3756 providing an additional layer of support.

The RSI has slipped just above the 35 level, approaching oversold territory and brushing levels last seen on August 6, though at a much lower price point. This development suggests the potential formation of a bullish divergence, which could pave the way for buyers to regain control. Conversely, a decisive break below the trendline and the 100-period MA would invalidate the bullish setup, with the next key support zone shifting down toward the 200-period MA.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3815

Target price: 1.3930

Stop loss: 1.3760

Validity: Sep 05, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

This dynamic suggests that any further pullback could trigger renewed buying interest, particularly from institutional players seeking to accumulate ETH at discounted levels.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

4350.18

Entry Price

4900.00

4000.00

3101.99 +0.38 +0.01%

2361.3

Pips

Profit

4000.00

4586.31

Exit Price

4350.18

Entry Price

4900.00

Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States experienced their largest weekly outflows in months last week, as anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech weighed heavily on risk appetite.

According to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs saw a total of $1.17 billion in outflows during the week, marking their second-largest withdrawal since the $2.6 billion negative flow recorded in late February. The group of 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted consecutive daily outflows that extended through Friday, when an additional $23 million exited the funds, logging their sixth straight day of losses.

While Ethereum spot ETFs demonstrated greater resilience, they too closed the week in negative territory, with $237.7 million in net outflows for the week ending August 22. This marked their largest weekly withdrawal since February and the third-largest loss in the funds’ history. Unlike their Bitcoin counterparts, however, Ether ETFs did see two consecutive sessions of strong inflows—$287.6 million on Thursday and $341.1 million on Friday—highlighting ongoing investor interest even amid broader weakness.

On the corporate side, crypto mining firm BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) has emerged as the world’s largest corporate holder of Ether after announcing that its combined cash and digital asset reserves reached $8.82 billion. Of that total, roughly $7.9 billion is allocated to 1,713,899 ETH, according to the company’s latest statement.

The firm’s Ether-focused treasury program, launched in late June, has rapidly accelerated purchases in just a few weeks. Management reaffirmed its ambitious long-term objective of accumulating up to 5% of Ethereum’s total circulating supply—a historic target within corporate treasuries and comparable only to what Strategy has achieved in the Bitcoin space.

Meanwhile, digital asset treasury firm ETHZilla announced on Monday that its board had authorized a $250 million share buyback program, aimed at repurchasing part of the company’s outstanding stock. Alongside the announcement, ETHZilla revealed it had added 7,537 ETH to its reserves, bringing its total holdings above 102,237 ETH at an average purchase price of $3,948.72 per token. At the time of the announcement, Ethereum was trading at $4,667.01, according to market data.

ETHZilla’s CEO, McAndrew Rudisill, emphasized that the company is deploying capital with discipline and speed to reinforce its Ethereum-based treasury strategy. He also highlighted that the stock repurchase plan underscores ETHZilla’s commitment to enhancing shareholder value, particularly at current equity valuations. Furthermore, the company confirmed that the recently acquired Ether will be held long-term and deployed through Electric Capital’s proprietary Electric Asset Protocol to generate yield. Bulls Poised to Reclaim Momentum After Ethereum’s Pullback_1

Bulls Poised to Reclaim Momentum After Ethereum’s Pullback_1

Technical Analysis

Ethereum recently broke above its long-standing all-time high of $4,878, originally set on November 10, 2021—a record that had remained intact for nearly four years. This bullish breakout could pave the way for further upward momentum, supported by rising demand for ETH and a growing wave of corporate treasury accumulation. The most recent peak was recorded near $4,955 before prices pulled back to $4,333 in the last session, a level that sits close to key local support at $4,378. Historically, this zone has acted as a pivot point where prices have bounced multiple times, raising the possibility that bulls could once again regain control from this area.

On the 3-hour chart, ETH has shown consistent bullish momentum along its ascending trendline, with repeated rebounds whenever price approaches the 200-period moving average, currently sitting at $4,189. This dynamic suggests that any further pullback could trigger renewed buying interest, particularly from institutional players seeking to accumulate ETH at discounted levels. In addition, the RSI is approaching the 30 mark, indicating bearish exhaustion. This technical setup could strengthen the probability of a bullish reversal from current support levels, with a potential retest of the recent highs. A breakout beyond the $4,955 peak would open the door to fresh price discovery and sustained upside momentum.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 4360

Target price: 4900

Stop loss: 4000

Validity: Sep 05, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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