Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Breaks Key Resistance; Medium-Term Target Remains $95

Summary:

Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran have prompted markets to reprice geopolitical risk, allowing WTI crude oil to maintain its bullish momentum after breaking above a key descending trendline. Although a short-term pullback remains possible following the recent rally, the broader uptrend remains intact. Supported by improving supply-demand expectations and renewed capital inflows, WTI is well positioned to extend its recovery toward the $95 area over the medium term.

BUY WTI

EXP

PENDING

70.000

Entry Price

95.800

63.800

71.893 +0.248 +0.35%

Pips

PENDING

63.800

Exit Price

70.000

Entry Price

95.800

Fundamentals

WTI crude oil continued its strong advance this week, successfully rebounding from the important support zone around $70.00. Earlier weakness driven by concerns over slowing global growth and soft demand has gradually given way to renewed optimism as geopolitical risks have returned to the forefront.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently stated that the agreement with Iran has effectively come to an end, reigniting concerns over energy supply stability in the Middle East. At the same time, renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran have forced investors to reassess the risks surrounding regional oil exports and shipping routes, driving international crude prices higher.

From a positioning perspective, buying interest has returned notably around the $70.00 area. Following a prolonged decline that pushed daily momentum indicators into oversold territory, geopolitical developments became the catalyst for aggressive short covering and fresh long positioning, resulting in a much stronger rebound than a typical technical correction.

Should tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, geopolitical risk premiums are likely to expand further, providing sustained support for crude oil prices.

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Breaks Key Resistance; Medium-Term Target Remains $95_1

Technical Analysis

Technically, WTI has confirmed a bullish breakout after decisively breaking above the descending trendline that had capped prices since early July. The rally quickly extended toward $76.12, signaling that the previous bearish trend has likely ended and that the medium-term outlook has shifted back in favor of the bulls.

Following the sharp advance, prices have entered a period of consolidation. This appears to be a healthy pause within an emerging uptrend rather than the start of another bearish leg. As long as any pullback remains above key support levels, the overall bullish structure should remain intact.

Measured from the recent swing low near $70.00 to the high at $76.12, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement lies at $73.32, the 50% retracement at $72.50, and the 61.8% retracement at $71.68. These levels closely align with the former descending trendline, now acting as support, creating a high-probability demand zone where buyers may look to re-enter the market.

Moving averages also reinforce the constructive outlook. Prices continue to trade above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, while the 100-day MA has crossed above the 200-day MA, forming a classic Golden Cross that signals improving medium- to long-term momentum. As long as prices remain above these dynamic support levels, pullbacks are likely to attract renewed buying interest.

Overall, provided that the key support around $70.00 remains intact, WTI's medium-term uptrend is expected to continue. A break above recent highs could open the door to the $80.00 psychological level, followed by a move toward the medium-term target near $95.

Trading Recommendation

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 70.00

Target Price: 95.80

Stop Loss: 63.80

Valid Until: 2026-08-08 23:55

Support Levels: 68.46 / 67.22 / 63.56

Resistance Levels: 72.31 / 75.76 / 77.89

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