FX Intervention: Are USDJPY Bulls Set for a Prolonged Retreat?

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that the government stands ready to intervene in the foreign-exchange market to counter excessive one-sided moves, providing the yen with temporary support. Although stealth intervention by Japanese authorities could help the yen rebound, the recovery is unlikely to last long as investors remain cautious about the Bank of Japan(BoJ)'s monetary-policy outlook, the primary driver of the currency's weakness.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

TRADING

155.981

Entry Price

160.000

154.000

156.116 -0.911 -0.58%

0.0

Pips

Flat

154.000

Exit Price

155.981

Entry Price

160.000

Fundamentals

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government stands ready to intervene in the FX market to counter "excessive, one-sided" moves, giving the yen a short-lived lift. Although stealth Ministry of Finance (MoF) bids are expected to slow the currency's slide, the rebound is unlikely to last as investors remain wary of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy trajectory, which is the main driver of yen weakness. A former Policy Board member suggested the BoJ could still deliver three more hikes before Governor Kazuo Ueda's term ends, taking the overnight call rate to 1.5%. The first move to 1.0% is pencilled in for mid-2026, contingent on U.S. growth and Japan's wage-price dynamics.

As the policy rate edges toward the neutral zone, additional tightening will become harder and face push-back from the government's reflationist camp. Tokyo is therefore trying to channel part of the $7 trillion in household financial assets into JGBs, launching new retail bond products and incentive schemes, to offset the BoJ's tapering. Retail JGB sales in FY2025 jumped 30.5% YoY to $5.28 trn, the highest since 2007, helped by rising yields. The MoF has expanded the product slate and is backing a 30-year JGB ETF to lock in individual investors for the long run. Past retail campaigns met with limited success, but the 10-year JGB yield punching through 2%, a 26-year high, and the 30-year yield topping 3% for the first time on record are proving a more compelling lure. With the central bank reducing purchases and banks constrained by capital rules, households are now viewed as the marginal buyer.

Across the Pacific, the dollar is on the back foot as markets price further Fed easing and President Trump tweets for lower borrowing costs. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler told Bloomberg TV that recent data are "consistent with a soft-landing narrative" and warned that withholding rate cuts would raise recession risk. Opposition to a 50 bp move will fade as rates decline. Traders are now looking to Tuesday's advance Q3 GDP print: the consensus is for annualised growth of 3.2%, down from 3.8% in Q2.

Technical Analysis

Daily: The Bollinger bands on USDJPY have contracted and the moving averages have flattened. After last Friday's bullish breakout above the upper Bollinger band, price has spent the past two sessions testing the mid-band, confirming the move. The short-term up-trend has resumed. A sustained hold above 155 should open a fresh test of 158–160. The MACD has printed a golden-cross with the fast-slow lines bouncing off the zero axis, signalling the correction is complete. RSI at 52 reflects a wait-and-see mood. Immediate support sits at 156.10 and 155.

Weekly: The Bollinger bands are widening upward and the moving averages are fanning out, leaving the bullish structure intact. The post-golden-cross MACD has lifted both lines back above zero, while price continues to ride the EMA12 higher classic strength. RSI at 62 shows investors are net buyers.

At this stage, traders are advised looking to buy dips while the prevailing uptrend remains in force.

FX Intervention: Are USDJPY Bulls Set for a Prolonged Retreat?_1

FX Intervention: Are USDJPY Bulls Set for a Prolonged Retreat?_2

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 155.6

Target Price: 160

Stop Loss: 154

Support: 154.7/153.2/150

Resistance Levels: 158/158.8/160

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

Yesterday, Japanese finance ministry officials signaled intervention, causing a sharp pullback in the USDJPY, but the upward trend remains intact.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

TRADING

156.051

Entry Price

160.100

154.300

156.116 -0.911 -0.58%

0.0

Pips

Flat

154.300

Exit Price

156.051

Entry Price

160.100

Fundamentals

Today, the USDJPY fluctuated around 156 amid market negotiations between Japanese policy signals, U.S. Treasury yields, and the overall strength of the dollar. Although the Bank of Japan has recently begun tightening monetary policy, the yen exhibits fragility—reflecting concerns over Japan's fiscal sustainability and long-term debt, as well as close attention to government intervention threats and short-term market volatility in a low-liquidity environment.

Following the recent rate-cutting cycle and subsequent economic data releases, the USD faced broad downward pressure, though divergence over the pace of future rate hikes led to volatility in U.S. Treasury yields. Concurrently, despite Japan raising its policy interest rate, markets interpret the increase as limited in scope and lacking a commitment to sustained tightening. Concerns over Japan's substantial fiscal expansion and refinancing risks have prevented a significant rebound in foreign investment preferences for yen-denominated assets and have instead intensified capital outflow anxieties.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Ministry of Finance and government officials have repeatedly issued warnings against unilateral and excessively rapid yen depreciation, raising the likelihood of intervention. In a low-liquidity environment usually seen during holiday periods, this has amplified yen fluctuations around key price levels.

Technical Analysis

Japanese Government's "Intervention" Only Added a Slight Hurdle to the Rise_1

In the 1D timeframe, USDJPY briefly surged to approximately 157.80 after breaking through the symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. Yesterday, signals of intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance caused a pullback to the upper boundary of the triangle, with a temporary support found at the 156.00 level.

Currently, if the currency pair stabilizes around the 156.00 support zone, the bullish momentum may continue, potentially testing the 158.00 resistance level and possibly breaking above, opening an upward trajectory towards 160.00. Conversely, if the price breaks below 156.00, it could signal deeper retracement, with potential support around 154.60.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 156.10

Target Price: 160.10

Stop Loss: 154.30

Valid Until: January 6, 2026 23:00:00

Support: 156.00, 154.60

Resistance: 158.00, 160.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Commodity

Summary:

During Tuesday's Asian session, silver prices printed a record high of 69.90 per ounce and were last quoted around 69.40. Escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions are channeling safe-haven flows into precious metals, with silver a key beneficiary.

SELL XAGUSD

EXP

TRADING

69.535

Entry Price

60.000

75.000

70.433 +1.388 +2.01%

0.0

Pips

Flat

60.000

Exit Price

69.535

Entry Price

75.000

Fundamentals

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that the US will retain, and may sell, the oil seized in recent weeks off the coast of Venezuela, adding that Washington will also keep the confiscated vessels. Simultaneously, Ukraine continues to target Russian energy infrastructure. Its latest strike damaged two tankers and two jetties and ignited a fire in a Black Sea village. Investors are seeking shelter from the twin headwinds of escalating geopolitical tensions and shifting monetary-policy expectations. The rising threat to global trade routes and energy infrastructure is amplifying market uncertainty and reinforcing demand for precious metals as a portfolio hedge rather than a speculative punt.

Disruptions to critical infrastructure in Eastern Europe and the growing risk to energy flows are rippling through broader commodity markets. Although the immediate supply impact remains limited, analysts warn that even localized outages can intensify risk-off sentiment.

With inflation showing signs of cooling and labor-market momentum easing, futures markets now price in multiple rate cuts over the next 12 months. Lower rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and erode real yields, which is a key driver of precious-metal prices. Fed officials have struck a cautious tone, balancing sticky price pressures against slowing growth. Recent commentary indicates policy will remain data-dependent, and investors are laser-focused on upcoming macro releases.

Attention is now turning to U.S. growth and manufacturing gauges, including the GDP revision, durable-goods orders and payrolls. The economy is expected to have expanded at an annualized 3.2% in Q3, down from 3.8% in Q2. Economists anticipate a sequential deceleration, with manufacturing activity remaining uneven. Softer-than-expected prints would likely bolster demand for defensive assets such as gold and silver, while stronger data could provide a brief tail-wind for the dollar. For now, the precious-metals complex continues to reflect a preference for risk-resilience over outright risk-aversion.

Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, bollinger bands are widening upward and the moving averages are fanning out bullishly. Price is riding the upper band; the MACD bullish crossover remains intact with no visible loss of momentum, implying the uptrend is intact. RSI at 69—price is approaching the over-bought threshold and round-number resistance near 70.

On the daily chart, bollinger bands continue to expand upward and the MA stack is still bullishly aligned, so the macro up-trend is unchanged. However, if today's session closes as a doji star, the price will pull back toward the EMA12 ( around 65). Holding that level would keep the rally alive, while a break below would shift the short-term bias to bearish. RSI is already 79, deep in over-bought territory. Lower intraday highs hint at waning momentum and a potential short-term reversal signal. Therefore, traders are advised to sell first and buy later.

New Record High! Can Silver Break Through $70?_1

New Record High! Can Silver Break Through $70?_2

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 69.6

Target Price: 60

Stop Loss: 75

Support: 65/60/56

Resistance Levels: 70/75/80

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

A decisive break below this support level would likely clear the path for a new bearish impulse, with a rapid downside target set at 1.3650.

SELL USDCAD

EXP

TRADING

1.37376

Entry Price

1.36500

1.37850

1.36893 -0.00563 -0.41%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.36500

Exit Price

1.37376

Entry Price

1.37850

In Canada, market expectations are gradually shifting toward the possibility that the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) next policy move could eventually be a rate hike. However, such an adjustment appears unlikely in the immediate term. During its most recent meeting, the BoC held its policy rate steady at 2.25%, noting that the current level is "approximately correct" given that inflation remains anchored near its target and the broader economy continues to exhibit signs of resilience. This steady policy message has reinforced market consensus that interest rates will likely remain unchanged well into 2026.

Adding a layer of fundamental support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have escalated. Reports indicate that the U.S. allegedly pursued another vessel near Venezuelan waters following the seizure of two oil tankers earlier this month. This heightened friction in the energy sector could drive oil prices higher, further strengthening the CAD.

On the other side of the border, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack recently adopted a decidedly hawkish tone. She cautioned that November’s CPI figures might have understated annual price pressures due to data irregularities. Suggesting that the neutral interest rate could be higher than currently assumed, Hammack advocated for a cautious approach toward further monetary easing.

Echoing this sentiment, Fed Governor Stephen Miran highlighted CPI data discrepancies linked to the recent government shutdown. While he acknowledged that recent figures align with his economic assessment, Miran reiterated that additional policy rate reductions remain probable only in the long term. Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool reflects this cautious outlook, showing a 79.0% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the Fed's January meeting—up from 75.6% a week ago—while the odds of a 25-basis-point cut have dwindled to 21.0%.

Inflation data released last Thursday showed U.S. CPI for November cooling to 2.7% year-over-year. Nevertheless, economists urge caution, as the 43-day government shutdown may have distorted significant portions of the report, complicating the Fed's decision-making process for early 2026. Breakout Below Critical Support Could Trigger Momentum Sell Off_1

Breakout Below Critical Support Could Trigger Momentum Sell Off_1

Technical Analysis

The USDCAD pair has experienced a sharp decline after failing to sustain its position above the 100-period Moving Average in the previous session. Price action has once again reached the critical 1.3738 mark, representing the previous local minimum. A decisive break below this support level would likely clear the path for a new bearish impulse, with a rapid downside target set at 1.3650.

The 200-period Moving Average is currently situated at 1.3846, trending significantly above the current price. This gap confirms that the primary trend remains firmly bearish. From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at the 32 level. Notably, the RSI has reached lows as deep as 14 in recent cycles, suggesting that there is still substantial room for further downward expansion before the pair becomes technically exhausted.

Furthermore, the MACD is currently descending toward neutral territory, signaling a build-up in bearish momentum. Given that current price lows are accompanied by relatively higher RSI levels compared to historical extremes, the structure indicates that bears remain in control. Consequently, short positions are favored as long as the price stays below the moving average resistance. However, a failure to break 1.3738 could lead to a temporary consolidation before the next major move.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3737

Target price: 1.3650

Stop loss: 1.3785

Validity: Dec 31, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This area represents a high-tension pivot, as oscillating indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest the bullish momentum may be nearing exhaustion.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66700

Entry Price

0.66270

0.66820

0.66980 +0.00411 +0.62%

12.0

Pips

Loss

0.66270

0.66820

Exit Price

0.66700

Entry Price

0.66820

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack adopted a decidedly hawkish tone recently, cautioning that the November CPI figures may have understated annual price pressures due to data irregularities. She suggested that the neutral interest rate might be higher than current market assumptions, advocating for a cautious approach toward further monetary easing.

Echoing this sentiment, Fed Governor Stephen Miran highlighted CPI data discrepancies linked to the recent government shutdown. While he acknowledged that recent data aligns with his economic assessment, Miran reiterated that further reductions in the policy rate remain likely in the long term. Currently, markets are pricing in two Fed rate cuts for 2026; however, officials remain divided following the cumulative 75 basis point (bps) easing implemented this year. Hammack, a 2026 FOMC voting member, stated in a Wall Street Journal interview that she sees no immediate need to adjust rates for several months, suggesting the central bank could maintain the current 3.50%–3.75% range until spring.

Inflation data released last Thursday showed U.S. CPI for November cooling to 2.7% year-over-year, down from the previous 3%. Nevertheless, economists urge caution in interpreting these figures, as the 43-day government shutdown may have distorted significant portions of the economic report.

In Australia, investors are shifting their focus to the RBA Meeting Minutes scheduled for release on Tuesday. Market participants are searching for clues regarding the central bank's policy outlook and its assessment of persistent inflationary pressures. As of December 18, the ASX 30-day Interbank Cash Rate futures for February 2026 were trading at 96.34, implying a 27% probability of a rate hike to 3.85% at the next RBA Board meeting.

This hawkish sentiment is supported by Friday’s data, which showed Consumer Inflation Expectations accelerating to 4.7% from the previous 4.5%. To gain further insight into the Australian interest rate path, investors will closely analyze the minutes from the December 9 meeting, where the RBA held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.6%. Technical Confluence Points to Downward Retracement_1

Technical Confluence Points to Downward Retracement_1

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD has maintained a strong bullish impulse, rapidly approaching the local resistance level of 0.6670, a zone not visited since December 12. This area represents a high-tension pivot, as oscillating indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest the bullish momentum may be nearing exhaustion.

Specifically, the RSI has climbed to 77, placing the pair deep into overbought territory. Simultaneously, the MACD is exhibiting what is often referred to as "hidden divergence" against the recent local highs and is currently showing potential for a bearish crossover. If this MACD signal is confirmed, we could see a technical correction from these levels toward the 0.6630 support zone.

The 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are currently situated at 0.6619 and 0.6635, respectively. Should the price reach the expected resistance and begin to pull back, these MAs align closely with the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This confluence increases the likelihood that a correction would find a magnet in this zone. However, a high-volume breakout and a close above the local high would invalidate this bearish setup, potentially opening the door for further gains.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6660

Target price: 0.6627

Stop loss: 0.6687

Validity: Dec 31, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

USDJPY is trading near 157.3–157.8, with the pair pressing toward the upper end of its yearly range as market forces reflect sustained yen weakness and persistent interest rate differentials....

BUY USDJPY

EXP

PENDING

157.100

Entry Price

157.850

152.900

156.116 -0.911 -0.58%

Pips

PENDING

152.900

Exit Price

157.100

Entry Price

157.850

Market overview

Today’s price action shows USDJPY holding above 157.20, with charts showing intraday swings between roughly 157.00 and 157.90. The pair has rallied from lower levels earlier in the week as the Bank of Japan hiked to 0.75%, yet markets reacted with yen weakening rather than strengthening because forward guidance emphasized continued accommodative real rates. This divergence has supported renewed demand for USDJPY at dips. The broader macro context sees the U.S. dollar maintaining resilience due to stable yields and relative strength, while the Japanese yen remains historically weak despite policy normalization. The current M15 structure reflects higher lows and repeated support tests near the 157.0 zone, setting up a classical buy-on-dips pattern.

Market sentiment

Sentiment toward the yen is bearish as traders increasingly price negative real rates in Japan meaning that even though nominal rates have risen, inflation outpaces them, making the yen unattractive relative to the U.S. dollar. Carry traders remain engaged: borrowing in low-yield yen to invest in higher-yielding dollar assets is still a prevailing theme, which structurally supports USDJPY upside unless intervention occurs. Japanese officials have warned they will act against “excessive” yen moves, but current commentary suggests readiness to stabilize rather than aggressively defend deeper weakness a stance that has kept speculative flows alive. Meanwhile, broader FX sentiment reflects risk appetite that favours the dollar against most developed market peers, adding to demand for USDJPY on corrective pullbacks.

Technical analysis

USDJPY Near Multi-Month Highs as Yen Weakness Persists_1

On the M15 timeframe, Bollinger Bands (20,2) show price oscillating near the upper band, with recent pullbacks finding support close to the mid-line a signal that buyers step in early and play dips. A sustained squeeze above the mid-band following pullbacks implies short-term buy pressure. The Ichimoku indicator reveals price action above or at the edge of the cloud after corrective dips, with Tenkan Sen (conversion) trending above Kijun Sen (base) when support is respected interpreted as short-term bullish alignment. The Stochastic (5,3,3) oscillator frequently cycles from oversold back upward, indicating that retracements are being absorbed by buyers rather than breaking structure. In combination, these metrics favor upside continuation as long as intraday support holds near 157.00.

Trade plan

Entry: 157.10

Take Profit: 157.85

Stop Loss: 152.90

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

BTCUSD has rebounded and is holding around $88,800–$90,000, with buyers stepping in near support after recent consolidation....

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

89500.0

Entry Price

91400.0

88100.0

87612.9 -2121.0 -2.36%

1400.0

Pips

Loss

88100.0

88098.8

Exit Price

89500.0

Entry Price

91400.0

Market overview

Bitcoin’s price action today shows a resilient bounce back above $88,000, with live trackers placing BTC near $88,800–$89,300 (as of current feeds). The intraday range is marked by highs testing around $90,500 and lows near $87,900, suggesting bulls are defending the lower part of this zone. Despite a broader backdrop of recent sideways movement, there’s evidence of renewed buying pressure as traders look for end-of-year upside, a pattern often referred to as a “Santa rally” in crypto markets where prices rise into late December amid optimistic positioning. Recent commentary indicates BTC up ~6.5% from local lows with analysts highlighting upside potential if key levels hold. (TradingView)

Market context shows Bitcoin has been sideways below the psychological $90,000 threshold for several sessions, but this consolidation has allowed short-term pressure to ease. Data over the past week shows BTC bouncing from mid-$80Ks, signaling a potential build of buyer conviction around annual close levels.

Market sentiment

Sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, fueled by seasonal patterns where crypto assets often gain as traditional markets close for holidays. Recent news points to a rebound in broader risk assets and hopes of renewed institutional interest after weeks of ETF outflows abated, offering tactical fuel for short-term buyers. The psychology on M15 is that buyers are more active on dips near support, while sellers lack strong conviction to push the market convincingly lower amid year-end positioning. This creates asymmetric pressure favorable for tactical long entries, especially when bulls defend critical intraday support and short-term indicators start improving.

Technical analysis

BTCUSD Gears Up for Santa Rally Breakout?_1

Bollinger Bands (20,2) on M15 show price holding above the 20-period midline, turning the mid-band into a dynamic support after recent rejections at lower levels. This positioning suggests that volatility compression could resolve upward if price continues to respect the mid-band and heads back toward the upper band, which sits near short-term resistance. A clean close above the mid-band with expanding upper bands would confirm short-term bullish momentum.

The Ichimoku (9,26,52) framework on M15 supports this view as price rotates above the cloud after corrective dips, with the Tenkan Sen (conversion line) starting to lift relative to the Kijun Sen (base line) a short-term bullish signal if sustained. The cloud itself isn’t offering heavy resistance yet, meaning recovery attempts have space to run before structural hurdles.

Stochastics (5,3,3) on M15 reflect a fresh bullish crossover from oversold towards neutral zones, implying a potential acceleration of momentum if buyers stay active. A sustained upward cross reinforced by price support above the mid-band will strengthen the bullish setup.