Due to market cautiousness regarding the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy outlook, the euro may appreciate, potentially limiting downside for EURUSD. The market generally anticipates that, with inflation near the 2% target, stable economic growth, and unemployment at historic lows, the ECB will keep interest rates steady through the end of 2026. Preliminary data indicate robust growth in the eurozone private sector in November, slightly below the two-year high hit in October, aligning with expectations and reinforcing cautious market sentiments towards the ECB's future stance. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated on Friday that the central bank will continue to monitor inflation risks closely and adjust rates as necessary to maintain the 2% inflation target. Gabriel Makhlouf, member of the ECB Governing Council and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, remarked on Thursday that the current monetary policy settings are appropriate and are unlikely to be adjusted unless significant changes occur. S&P Global's data released on Friday indicates that the November composite PMI for the Eurozone stood at 52.4, slightly below October's figure of 52.5, continuing to remain above the crucial 50 threshold that demarcates expansion from contraction, thus aligning with market expectations. The sectoral performance shows divergence; the services PMI was at 53.1, surpassing both the previous month's 53 and the consensus forecast of 52.8, marking the strongest monthly performance in a year and a half. Overall, the Eurozone’s sectors exhibited resilience in November, with the services sector achieving its best performance in half a year, offering optimism for accelerated year-end economic growth. Despite an unexpectedly weak manufacturing sector, the rapid expansion of services has supported the overall economy’s healthy growth trajectory. Manufacturing, however, continues to exert downward pressure, with the November PMI preliminary reading at 49.7, significantly below October's 50, and re-entering contraction territory.

Recently, the EURUSD volatility has been driven not only by fundamental factors such as interest rate and inflation expectations but also by macroeconomic conditions and risk sentiment dynamics. On one hand, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have diminished, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction at the December 10 meeting decreasing from 62% a week ago to around 50%. A month prior, the market widely anticipated a rate cut, with the likelihood reaching as high as 96%. On the other hand, recent global equity sell-offs have significantly amplified risk aversion. In an environment of waning risk appetite, the U.S. dollar, as a traditional safe-haven currency, garners increased capital inflows. Investors are reallocating from equities and high-risk assets to cash and highly liquid instruments. This “safe-haven dollar demand” often temporarily offsets the negative impact of weakening rate expectations, maintaining the U.S. Dollar Index’s strength at elevated levels, and applying downward pressure on the EURUSD below the 1.16 level.

In the 1D timeframe of the EURUSD, the MACD's MACD line and signal line retracted near the zero-axis and subsequently generated a death cross, indicating continued downside momentum. The Bollinger Bands are contracting downward, with SMAs diverging downward, while the price consolidates along the EMA12. Following a large bearish candlestick last week, the RSI reading is at 41, reflecting prevailing bearish sentiment. The current correction remains within the downward channel, with a high likelihood of testing the lower Bollinger Band around 1.147, unless resistance at the upper boundary of the channel is broken. In the 1W timeframe, Bollinger Bands are narrowing, the EMA12 has turned downward, and the MACD has generated a death cross with the MACD line and signal line approaching the zero-axis, suggesting the decline is not yet complete. The RSI stands at 49, with successive lower highs, indicating strong market hesitation. Short-term support levels are identified near the middle Bollinger Band and the EMA50. It is recommended to go short at the highs.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.153

Target Price: 1.12

Stop Loss: 1.175

Support: 1.145, 1.14, 1.12

Resistance: 1.182, 1.192, 1.2

The New York Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 18.7 in November, hitting a nearly one-year high and far exceeding the market expectation of 6. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Services PMI remained in a strong expansionary range at 55. Together, these data points paint a picture of a still-healthy economy. Although there are some mild signs of labor market softening—such as initial jobless claims rising to a two-month high and the unemployment rate inching up to 4.4%—these changes are more indicative of a potential "soft landing" rather than a sharp economic downturn. This fundamental backdrop significantly reduces gold's appeal as a safe haven and explains why rising expectations for interest rate cuts fail to drive gold prices higher. Holdings in the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 3.43 tons to 1,040.57 tons last week. This ongoing outflow suggests that institutional investors are adopting a cautious stance ahead of key events. At the same time, positive signals on the geopolitical front have also somewhat weakened the demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks. Reports indicate that U.S. and Ukrainian representatives made "progress" during talks in Geneva, with a potential peace plan that may address Ukraine's core interests. This easing of geopolitical tensions further undermines gold's safe-haven support.

On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams stated that the Federal Reserve could still cut interest rates in the near term without jeopardizing its inflation target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a nearly 74% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting, up from 40% last week. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby supporting the price of the non-yielding precious metal. However, other Fed officials maintain a hawkish stance. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have called for keeping policy rates unchanged "for a time." Traders will be paying closer attention to mixed economic signals and delays in the release of key inflation data. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data will be released on Tuesday. PPI is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while retail sales are forecasted to rise by 0.4%. Any signs of rising inflation could weaken market expectations for an interest rate cut, which in turn may boost the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.

Based on the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a triangle consolidation pattern with no clear short-term trend. The MACD forms a death cross, with both the MACD and signal lines pulling back to the zero line twice before turning downward again—a bearish signal. The RSI stands at 46, reflecting strong bearish sentiment. Key support levels are at $4000 and $3930. From the daily chart perspective, the MACD's bullish momentum is gradually weakening, even as the price fails to make new highs—this is a sign of a potential bearish divergence. The likelihood of continued short-term downside is relatively high. Support levels include the Bollinger Lower Band and the 50-day EMA, at $3920 and $3964, respectively. The RSI is at 50, placing the price in a neutral zone, though recent highs have been gradually declining. It is recommended to sell at highs.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4064

Target price: 3600

Stop loss: 4390

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000

Since mid-October, risk assets have been whipsawed by data-light conditions in the U.S., leaving the macro narrative opaque and discouraging fresh risk-taking.

After the early-October rallies in BTC, SOL and ETH, crypto derivatives began flashing distribution signals. Coinglass data show $170 million in total ETH liquidations over the past 24 h, of which $142.8 million were long-side forced closures.

With ETH now around 46% below the August swing high of $4,950, speculative excess has largely been unwound.

Friday’s session extends the downtrend. ETH remains heavily offered sub-$2,700. A decisive break of $2,650 opens a straight-line path toward the $2,500 daily demand zone.

Meanwhile, the level coincides with the measured move target of the inverse head-and-shoulders base, raising the probability of a sharp mean-reversion once satisfied.

On the upside, ETH must first reclaim $3,100 and then close above the EMA20(currently $3,130) to validate a leg toward the next resistance cluster at $3,470.

Momentum oscillators have entered the oversold zone, which signals a rising probability of a bullish momentum trigger.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 2500

Target Price: 3186

Stop Loss: 2100

Valid Until: December 8, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 2642/2556/2529

Resistance Levels: 2883/3060/3153

Gold prices climbed off intraday lows on Friday, after a new round of dovish-leaning commentary from Federal Reserve officials revived hopes that the central bank could still move toward a rate cut before year-end. The shift added fresh volatility to a market that has spent the past week locked in a narrow but increasingly fragile range.

At the time of writing, spot Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,067, recovering from a session low around $4,022, though the rebound remains tentative. Traders say the metal continues to lack a clear catalyst for a sustained upside break as macro uncertainty and shifting Fed expectations dominate market sentiment.

The turnaround in intraday momentum came after New York Fed President John Williams said he still sees scope for a potential rate cut “in the near term,” a remark that contrasted with the more cautious tone adopted by other policymakers in recent weeks. Williams’ comments breathed life back into rate-cut speculation at a moment when traders had been dialing back expectations for December.

Until Friday afternoon, the market had largely resigned itself to the idea that the Fed might hold rates steady well into Q1 2026, citing sticky inflation and still-resilient labour market data. Most policymakers have been consistent in warning that premature easing could risk undoing progress on inflation. However, Williams’ remarks sharply altered the tone, with December rate-cut odds jumping to nearly 70%, up from around 31% earlier in the day.

Lower interest rates typically benefit non-yielding assets such as gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them—fueling the quick repricing seen across metals markets.

Still, despite the rebound, Gold remains structurally vulnerable. The trading pattern throughout the week reflects hesitation from both sides of the market: buyers continue to defend support levels, yet bulls have failed repeatedly to muster the momentum needed to break through overhead resistance.

From a technical standpoint, Gold remains constrained within a broad symmetrical triangle structure that has shaped price action through November. Friday’s bounce came precisely from the ascending trendline near $4,040, a level that has repeatedly acted as a reliable support zone. I still see this area as a key pivot—lose it, and sentiment could deteriorate quickly.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trading below the 50-period Simple Moving Average, currently around $4,105, which has begun to roll over. That shift signals weakening bullish pressure, especially with the 50-SMA now sitting just above the mildly rising 100-SMA near $4,058. The alignment suggests the market lacks a clear directional bias and is waiting for a catalyst, but the tone is still skewed slightly toward sellers.

Momentum indicators echo that view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) holds around 42, below the midpoint, reflecting subdued buying interest and reinforcing the idea that upside moves may be difficult to sustain.

If the ascending trendline breaks decisively—particularly on a closing basis—I expect a drop toward the $4,000 psychological level, followed by a deeper decline toward the October 28 swing low near $3,886.

On the upside, the $4,100–$4,200 zone remains a stubborn ceiling, repeatedly capping attempts from the bulls to build momentum. A clean break and daily close above $4,150 would be needed to signal a bullish shift and open the path toward higher extensions.

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4060

STOP LOSS: 4000

TAKE PROFIT: 4200

The New Zealand Dollar remained pinned near seven-month lows on Friday, with NZD/USD struggling around 0.5580 as bulls repeatedly failed to reclaim the 0.5600 handle. The pair’s inability to generate meaningful upside reflects an increasingly stark monetary policy divergence: investors expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to deliver another rate cut next week, while diminishing prospects for a December Federal Reserve easing continue to support broad U.S. Dollar strength.

Markets have spent weeks recalibrating their expectations for global monetary policy, and for New Zealand, the shift has been particularly bearish. The local economy continues to lose momentum, inflation pressures are easing more quickly than expected, and leading indicators suggest further cooling is inevitable. Meanwhile, U.S. data has remained surprisingly resilient, providing the Fed with a stronger case to delay easing. Together, the two trajectories have positioned NZD/USD firmly on the defensive, with little sign of a near-term trend reversal.

Fresh U.S. employment data released Thursday reinforced the economy’s relative outperformance. The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September—more than double the expected 50,000—in a signal that hiring, although slower than earlier in the year, is not collapsing as previously feared. The October reading, however, was revised significantly lower to a net loss of 4,000 jobs, compared with an initially reported 22,000 gain.

Even with the softer revision, the overall narrative remains one of stability rather than deterioration. Surprisingly, the U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest level in four years, from 4.3% in August. Yet this rise did little to revive expectations of a December rate cut. Market probabilities for a Fed move have now slipped below 50%, compared with over 60% last week and nearly 100% just a month ago.

For currency markets, this shift is critical. As traders gradually unwind expectations of rapid Fed easing, the U.S. Dollar has found renewed strength—particularly against currencies like the NZD, where domestic conditions point in the opposite direction.

Recent New Zealand economic releases highlight a country struggling to regain traction after a prolonged slowdown. Producer price index figures showed factory-gate inflation moderating more sharply than anticipated, and the RBNZ’s own survey of inflation expectations for Q4 held steady within the central bank’s price-stability range.

Together, these metrics underscore the reduced inflation threat and strengthen the case for additional monetary easing. With growth subdued and inflation trending down, policymakers have few incentives to remain restrictive. Markets are now almost fully pricing in another rate cut next week—one that would drop the Official Cash Rate to 2.25%, its lowest level in three years and well below the 5.5% peak seen in August 2024.

That magnitude of easing relative to the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance is precisely the policy divergence fueling NZD/USD weakness.

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD remains firmly trapped within a bearish structure. The pair extended declines after breaking below the key support zone at 0.5610, a level that previously provided multiple reaction points. Price action continues to trade beneath the 50-day exponential moving average, reinforcing the dominant downward trend.

The structure on the shorter-term charts also reflects persistent negative bias, with the pair trading along a well-defined descending minor trendline. However, some early signs of downside exhaustion are emerging: relative strength indicators have slipped into oversold territory, suggesting that the pace of losses could slow in the near term.

Still, without a sustained break above 0.5650—or a notable shift in macro drivers—any recovery attempts may struggle to gain traction. For now, the path of least resistance remains to the downside, with potential for further declines toward 0.5530 or even 0.5480 if the RBNZ signals a more aggressive easing cycle.

SELL NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.56050

STOP LOSS: 0.56600

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5480

According to data from authoritative international bodies, the global silver market is heading into its fifth consecutive year of supply deficit, with the shortfall expected to reach approximately 95 million ounces in 2025. This is not a sudden crisis, but a chronic structural imbalance that has persisted for years. What distinguishes the current cycle, however, is a decisive shift in the primary driver of the deficit.

Industrial fabrication demand has softened amid the global economic slowdown, yet this gap has been more than offset by an explosive wave of investment demand. Holdings of physically-backed silver ETFs have surged to 187 million ounces, a multi-year high, underscoring that investors now regard silver as a safe-haven hedge against stagflation and sovereign-credit volatility. The price-setting force is no longer factory orders, but a torrent of institutional and retail capital.

Beyond market fundamentals, policy has opened a new valuation channel for silver: Washington recently designated the metal as a "critical mineral." This re-labeling is material—it confers strategic status at the federal level and flags prospective policy support, strategic stockpiling, or trade restrictions. Over the long run it establishes a durable policy floor under the silver price.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 35.5% probability that the FOMC will lower the federal-funds target range by 25 bp to 3.50%–3.75% at its December meeting. A status-quo outcome would be an ill omen for non-interest-bearing assets such as silver. Officials' lingering concern about upside inflation risks keeps dovish Fed pricing subdued. On Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said elevated inflation is the economy's "real problem," adding that "inflation is still too high and moving in the wrong direction," and therefore monetary policy needs to remain "modestly restrictive."

Meanwhile, the continuously rising U.S. unemployment rate has failed to materially strengthen market expectations for a dovish shift by the Fed. Thursday's release of September non-farm payrolls showed the jobless rate climbing to 4.4%. In Friday's session, investors will focus on the flash reading of S&P Global's U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November, due at 14:45 GMT.

On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands on silver are contracting, with the bandwidth narrowing and the moving averages flattening. After facing resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, the price is oscillating near the middle band. The MACD has formed a bearish crossover (dead cross), and upward momentum is waning—this is a classic top divergence signal, indicating further downside ahead. RSI stands at 49, reflecting a neutral-to-bearish sentiment. Key support levels are at the EMA50 (47.8) and the lower Bollinger Band (45.5).

The Bollinger Bands are widening downward, and the moving averages are fanning out bearishly, confirming the short-term downtrend remains intact. The price is likely to retest the EMA12 descending trendline before resuming its decline, with a high probability of breaking below 45.5. RSI at 36 shows strong bearish momentum.

In this stage, traders are recommended to take short positions at highs.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 49.4

Target Price: 45

Stop Loss: 53

Support: 45/40/37.7

Resistance Levels: 50/52/55