EUR/USD Retraces on M15 as U.S. Inflation Surprises: Will Dollar Pressure Continue?

Traders' Opinions

Forex

Summary:

As of 16/09/2025, EUR/USD on the M15 timeframe has shown increased volatility following stronger‑than‑expected U.S. inflation data and dovish signals ahead from the Federal Reserve. The ECB remaining cautious and holding rates has added support to the euro, but the dollar surge driven by sticky CPI is creating resistance. Going forward, EUR/USD may continue oscillating in a narrow range unless there’s a breakout triggered by a major U.S. data release or Fed communication....

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17650

Entry Price

1.17500

1.18050

1.17385 -0.00009 -0.01%

40.0

Pips

Loss

1.17500

1.18052

Exit Price

1.17650

Entry Price

1.18050

Overview

Currently EUR/USD trades around 1.1765‑1.1775. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year‑on‑year, with the core inflation at about 3.1%. Month‑on‑month inflation also came in above expectations (0.4% vs ~0.3%) in headline CPI.

Meanwhile, ECB kept policy rates unchanged, signaling no urgency in further rate cuts, citing moderating inflation but weaker growth forecasts. On M15 chart, past few candles show the pair reacting sharply to CPI release, with quick retracements and wide wicks indication of intraday indecision.

Market sentiment

Traders are increasingly pricing in at least one Fed rate cut toward the end of 2025, possibly December, but strong inflation data is pushing back on the speed of cuts.

The euro benefits modestly from ECB’s more hawkish hold, but concerns about Europe’s growth slowdown and political risk still weigh. There is fear of U.S. inflation remaining elevated two‑fold: if core components (services, shelter, wages) don’t show meaningful softening, the dollar may regain strength.

On shorter timeframes like M15, we see traps: spikes up meet resistance, pullbacks test support, traders chasing breakouts often get “whipsawed.”

Technical analysis

EUR/USD Retraces on M15 as U.S. Inflation Surprises: Will Dollar Pressure Continue?_1

On the M15 chart, price is oscillating near the upper band of Bollinger Bands (20,0,2), indicating a short‑term overbought condition. The bands are moderately wide, so the market is seeing decent intraday volatility.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): price is above Tenkan‑Sen and Kijun‑Sen, but the Senkou Cloud for upcoming candles is flat or only slightly bullish, which suggests weak upward momentumnot enough to confirm strong breakout.

If price enters the cloud or falls back through Kijun, that would weaken the bullish bias. Stochastic (5,3,3) is in or near the overbought zone, showing signs of possible reversal or pullback.

If it crosses down, that would indicate a short‑term decline is likely. Key resistance on M15 sits around 1.1780‑1.1785, key support around 1.1740‑1.1750, with secondary support closer to 1.1715‑1.1700 if downward momentum builds.

Trade recommendation

Entry: consider selling EUR/USD around 1.17650

Take Profit: initial target ~ 1.1750‑1.1740; if momentum strong, may extend to 1.1715‑1.1700.

Stop Loss: place just above resistance, around 1.1805‑1.1810, to avoid being stopped out by noise.

Alternatively, if price dips to 1.1740‑1.1750 and shows signs of support or reversal (bounce off Kijun/Tenkan + stochastic oversold + lower Bollinger Band holds), consider a reversal trade long with tight stop below 1.1715 and profit target back near 1.1780.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

New Zealand’s services PMI dropped to 47.5, marking the 18th consecutive month of contraction and signaling a renewed slowdown in economic recovery. EUR/NZD has found support and may be bottoming out in the short term.

BUY EURNZD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.97046

Entry Price

2.05620

1.95000

2.02417 +0.00220 +0.11%

114.7

Pips

Profit

1.95000

1.98193

Exit Price

1.97046

Entry Price

2.05620

Fundamentals

EUR/NZD is trading around 1.9734. The pair has been consolidating lower in recent sessions but is now testing a prior congestion zone. If buyers can hold the line, the broader uptrend may extend; if rejected, the pair risks another correction.

Data highlight: New Zealand’s services sector weakened further in August. The Business NZ Performance of Services Index fell from 48.9 to 47.5, well below the long-term average of 52.9. This marks the 18th straight month of contraction, and the index has not been above 50 — the threshold for expansion — since February last year.

Activity/sales (46.2) and new orders/business (47.8) both declined, underscoring fragile demand. Employment improved slightly to 48.3 but remained in contraction, reflecting businesses’ reluctance to expand hiring amid subdued activity.

The survey showed that 59.6% of respondents provided negative comments in August, higher than July but still below June’s extreme pessimism. Companies cited multiple pressures, including high interest rates, stubborn inflation, and the squeeze from rising living costs. Higher operating costs, seasonal slowdowns, supply chain disruptions, and policy uncertainty also weighed on sentiment.

This week’s data are expected to show a contraction in Q2 GDP. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and most economists anticipate that falling interest rates will support consumer spending and business investment, setting the stage for a rebound in the second half of the year.

Market view: While we still believe that signs of an inflection point in the economy are emerging, the risk remains that the rebound could take longer than currently expected.

Weak Services Data Underscores Downside Pressure, Pair Holds Firm_1

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, EUR/NZD has been trending higher since rebounding from around 1.9500, moving within a modest ascending channel. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a bullish crossover, confirming upside momentum.

Momentum indicators remain supportive: the RSI hovers near 60, suggesting there is still room for further gains but with mild overbought conditions that warrant caution for short-term pullbacks. The MACD histogram continues to rise, maintaining a bullish bias.

Overall, EUR/NZD retains an upward bias. A decisive break above the 1.9955 resistance would open the way toward 2.0003–2.0178. Failure to break higher, however, could see a retracement toward the 1.9606–1.9412 support zone.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.9693

Target Price: 2.0562

Stop Loss: 1.9500

Valid Until: September 30, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.9627 / 1.9602 / 1.9527

Resistance Levels: 1.9955 / 2.0000 / 2.0037

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

A recovery from this zone could target the 2.0688 area, where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement aligns closely with the 100-day moving average.

BUY GBPAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

2.03975

Entry Price

2.06880

2.02120

2.01176 +0.00228 +0.11%

100.3

Pips

Profit

2.02120

2.04978

Exit Price

2.03975

Entry Price

2.06880

In Australia, investors are turning their attention to the upcoming August employment report due on Thursday. Markets expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%, while the economy is projected to have added 21.2K new jobs, slightly below the previous reading of 24.5K. Signs of a resilient labor market are likely to temper expectations for interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its upcoming policy meeting later this month.

Expectations for further RBA rate cuts have eased notably in recent weeks. Interest rate swaps are now pricing in an 86% probability that the RBA will leave policy unchanged in September, supported by Australia’s strong July trade surplus, robust second-quarter GDP figures, and the pickup in July inflation.

Adding to the hawkish tilt, Australian consumer inflation expectations rose again in September, signaling stronger domestic demand and stoking concerns about renewed price pressures. RBA Governor Michele Bullock remarked that the private sector is showing “a bit more growth,” which she described as a positive sign for the economy’s outlook.

Meanwhile, data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Monday showed that retail sales rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, missing both the 3.8% forecast and July’s 3.7% gain. Industrial production increased 5.2% year-over-year, below expectations of 5.8% and down from 5.7% previously.

During its press conference, the NBS noted that China’s overall economic operation remained broadly stable in August but added that domestic demand is expected to expand and help drive a rebound in prices. However, the agency also acknowledged that some companies are struggling to operate amid a very challenging external environment.

Elsewhere, signs of cooling GDP growth in the United Kingdom are reinforcing market expectations for additional interest rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE) before the end of the year. For now, traders broadly expect the BoE to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4% at next week’s meeting. A Potential Recovery May Be Building from Multi-Year Oversold Levels_1

A Potential Recovery May Be Building from Multi-Year Oversold Levels_1

Technical Analysis

GBPAUD has fallen to 2.0340 after a steady downtrend that began on August 20 from the 2.1032 resistance zone, which also marked a local high. The decline has dragged the pair below its 100- and 200-day moving averages, located at 2.0721 and 2.0461 respectively on the daily chart. Friday’s session closed with a doji candle, hinting that a potential reversal could be forming around current levels. The nearest downside support is at 2.0300, a former resistance area that could now act as support and validate a possible continuation of the broader uptrend.

Adding to the potential for a rebound, the RSI has slipped to 29, reaching oversold territory. Traders will be closely watching price action at these levels, especially as such deeply oversold conditions have not been seen on the daily chart in over a year. A recovery from this zone could target the 2.0688 area, where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement aligns closely with the 100-day moving average, adding confluence to the case for a bounce toward that region.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 2.0394

Target price: 2.0688

Stop loss: 2.0212

Validity: Sep 26, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

With traders eagerly awaiting this week’s Bank of England and Bank of Japan policy meetings, downside risk in GBP/JPY appears limited.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

200.408

Entry Price

204.140

197.500

208.261 -0.062 -0.03%

151.5

Pips

Loss

197.500

198.893

Exit Price

200.408

Entry Price

204.140

Fundamentals

GBP/JPY extended Friday’s close above the psychological 200.00 level, climbing higher again on Monday — marking the fifth attempt since August 13 to sustain a breakout of this threshold. However, confidence in follow-through remains cautious ahead of key central bank risk events later this week.

The Bank of England is scheduled to announce its policy decision on Thursday, with markets widely expecting the benchmark rate to remain steady at 4.0%. Given the recent pickup in inflation expectations, the BoE is likely to stay cautious for the rest of 2025, which should continue to support sterling and favor GBP/JPY.

On the other hand, from a risk management perspective, the Bank of Japan is also expected to hold policy rates unchanged at this week’s meeting. While July’s economic and price outlook suggested that Japan’s virtuous cycle of growth and inflation was still intact, the impact of tariff hikes has begun to show in the latest data. Exports and industrial production have softened, with the auto sector particularly affected, and recurring profits in manufacturing have also declined. Inflation driven by demand remains insufficient to justify a rate hike this month. That does not mean the BoJ cannot raise rates, but given the uncertain outlook, policymakers may want clearer evidence. Our baseline forecast remains that the next BoJ rate hike is likely to occur in January 2026.

Uptrend Resumes, Downside Risk Appears Limited_1

Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY maintains a mild bullish bias intraday as the rally from 184.35 attempts to resume. A sustained break above 200.32 would target the 100% projection of 180.00–199.79, which comes in at 204.14. Conversely, a break below minor support at 199.57 would delay the bullish case and turn the intraday outlook back to neutral.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 200.00

Target Price: 204.14

Stop Loss: 197.50

Valid Until: September 30, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 199.57 / 198.79 / 198.12

Resistance Levels: 200.75 / 201.62 / 204.14

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold prices inched higher on Monday, trading near $3,640 as investors looked ahead to a decisive Federal Reserve meeting this week.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3650.07

Entry Price

3700.00

3620.00

4304.33 +4.94 +0.11%

422.5

Pips

Profit

3620.00

3692.32

Exit Price

3650.07

Entry Price

3700.00

Gold prices advanced in early Asian trading on Monday, with spot XAU/USD moving closer to $3,640 as investors prepared for one of the most significant Federal Reserve decisions of the year. The precious metal extended its upward momentum after a softer U.S. labor market report reinforced expectations that the central bank will deliver its first rate cut of 2025 this week, potentially altering the course of monetary policy for the next several years.

Markets currently see a quarter-point reduction as the most likely outcome when policymakers conclude their two-day meeting on Wednesday. However, chatter about a larger half-point cut has not been completely dismissed, with some traders pointing to evidence of a rapid deceleration in U.S. job creation. For gold, the debate is less about the size of the cut and more about the broader message: lower rates reduce the relative cost of holding non-yielding assets, enhancing the appeal of the metal at a time when investors are searching for both safety and return.

Expectations extend well beyond this week’s decision. Futures markets are now pricing in a series of cuts stretching into 2026, a reflection of investor unease that the U.S. economy is sliding toward stagnation under the weight of tight financial conditions. If realized, this trajectory would anchor yields lower and continue to support demand for gold, while also fanning concerns about future inflation as monetary policy tilts back toward accommodation.

Commenting on the current backdrop, Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, noted that “weaker employment and spotty inflation data, combined with the Fed’s need to cut, are pushing metals higher because there is still a risk of longer-term inflation.” His remarks underline the paradox that gold thrives on: while easing policy relieves immediate economic pressure, it also reignites debate about whether inflation could resurface later, keeping safe-haven assets in focus.

Beyond U.S. monetary policy, geopolitics is playing an increasingly important role. Senior officials from Washington and Beijing entered the second day of trade and economic discussions in Madrid, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The stakes are high, as any tangible progress could ease tensions between the world’s two largest economies and boost risk appetite, which in turn might temper safe-haven demand for gold. On the other hand, a lack of breakthroughs could sustain current levels of uncertainty, further reinforcing the metal’s bid.

Technical Analysis

Technically, gold remains in a constructive posture, though signs of consolidation suggest the rally is pausing while the market awaits a decisive catalyst. The metal has been climbing within a broader bullish trend, but near-term upward momentum appears capped as traders digest earlier gains. Resistance is beginning to cluster around the $3,658 to $3,660 area, which represents the immediate barrier to fresh advances. A sustained move through this level would likely trigger a test of last week’s high near $3,675 and could even extend toward the psychologically important $3,700 mark. That round number has become a focal point for market participants, not only as a technical target but also as a gauge of investor conviction about the durability of gold’s rally.

Support, meanwhile, is firming in the $3,620 region, where buyers have consistently stepped in during recent sessions. A failure to hold above this zone could invite a deeper pullback toward $3,590, though the broader bias remains tilted to the upside as long as the Fed signals a dovish shift in policy.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3650

STOP LOSS: 3620

TAKE PROFIT: 3700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The British pound rose sharply against the US dollar on Monday, climbing near the 1.3600 level as investors braced for major central bank decisions this week

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36100

Entry Price

1.40000

1.35000

1.33680 -0.00027 -0.02%

26.9

Pips

Profit

1.35000

1.36369

Exit Price

1.36100

Entry Price

1.40000

The British pound began the week on a strong footing, pushing higher against the US dollar during Monday’s European session, as investors adjusted positions ahead of two crucial central bank announcements. The GBP/USD pair advanced toward the 1.3600 threshold, supported by broad selling in the greenback and firm expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease policy again on Wednesday.

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, was trading slightly weaker around 97.50. The decline reflected waning appetite for the greenback as markets increasingly price in a softer stance from the Fed.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning more than a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range down to 4.00%-4.25%. Dovish expectations have intensified in recent weeks amid signs of cooling momentum in the US labor market. The Fed has been under growing pressure to strike a balance between reining in still-elevated inflation and preventing a sharper economic slowdown.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the Bank of England is due to meet on Thursday. Economists broadly expect the BoE to leave rates unchanged at 4%, despite persistent inflationary pressures that continue to challenge policymakers. UK consumer price growth has been easing only gradually, while wage gains and sticky services inflation complicate the bank’s path to restoring price stability. That divergence between a potentially more dovish Fed and a cautious BoE is providing some tailwinds for the pound.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair is showing notable strength. After building momentum in recent sessions, the pair managed to challenge the critical resistance at 1.3585, a level that traders view as pivotal. The move was underpinned by positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has successfully exited overbought territory, allowing scope for further gains.

Price action is also trading firmly above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing short-term bullish bias. Market participants note that the pair continues to respect its upward trajectory, trading in line with a rising bias line.

On the daily chart, an inverse Head and Shoulders formation has become increasingly evident. The neckline of this bullish reversal pattern lies squarely at 1.3600—a level that not only marks psychological resistance but also coincides with the origin of the last downward impulse. According to the Fractal Reversal Law, a decisive break and consolidation above this neckline would signal a clear phase shift in the market.

While the right shoulder of the formation appears somewhat extended, analysts argue that this does not invalidate the pattern. Instead, it highlights prolonged accumulation before a potential breakout. Should GBP/USD confirm a sustained move above 1.3600, the bullish roadmap points toward an initial target of 1.3800, followed by a secondary objective at 1.4000.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3610

STOP LOSS: 1.3500

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The New Zealand dollar climbed modestly on Monday, supported by expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut later this week, though its broader outlook remains clouded by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s easing bias.

BUY NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.59648

Entry Price

0.61210

0.58800

0.57980 -0.00060 -0.10%

17.0

Pips

Profit

0.58800

0.59818

Exit Price

0.59648

Entry Price

0.61210

The New Zealand dollar edged higher on Monday, with the NZD/USD pair trading near 0.5960 during the late European session. The move came as the U.S. dollar weakened against major peers, with traders betting heavily on an imminent rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting this Wednesday.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six leading currencies, slipped 0.2% to 97.40 at press time, extending last week’s losses as Fed expectations grew increasingly dovish. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are fully pricing in a cut, with many investors now more concerned with how deep the Fed will ease and how long the cycle might last.

The shift in sentiment has been driven by weakening labor market signals. Last week, U.S. initial jobless claims surged to 263,000—the highest in four years—sparking fears that the world’s largest economy could be heading for a more pronounced slowdown. Combined with softer inflation readings in recent months, the data has cemented expectations that the Fed will deliver a rate cut at this week’s meeting.

Investors will now focus squarely on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for guidance on the pace of policy easing through the remainder of the year. If Powell hints at further cuts in November or December, the dollar could face another wave of selling pressure, supporting risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand dollar.

However, the Kiwi’s outlook is far from straightforward. While short-term momentum favors gains, the broader policy backdrop remains skewed against the New Zealand dollar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has already slashed its Official Cash Rate by 125 basis points this year, bringing it down to 3%, and Reuters reports suggest two more cuts could follow before year-end. Such a trajectory contrasts sharply with other central banks that are either nearing a pause or adopting a more measured approach.

This divergence means the NZD remains vulnerable to medium-term downside risks, even if the Fed’s actions offer temporary relief. Investors are therefore caught between two competing forces: near-term U.S. dollar weakness driven by Fed easing, and longer-term New Zealand dollar softness driven by RBNZ’s aggressive loosening.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, NZD/USD has shown encouraging signs of strength. The pair has broken out of its recent descending channel and is now retesting the previous resistance area, which has flipped into a support zone between 0.5888 and 0.5953.

Momentum indicators are aligning with the bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing positive signals, while the pair continues to trade above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), reinforcing the stability of the short-term uptrend.

If NZD/USD can sustain its footing above the 0.5950 area, traders will look toward immediate upside targets. The first resistance lies at 0.6012, followed by 0.6065. A decisive break above these levels could open the door for a push toward 0.6121, a zone that would mark the strongest showing for the Kiwi in several weeks.

On the downside, failure to hold the 0.5888–0.5953 support zone could reintroduce selling pressure, with bears eyeing a move back toward 0.5820.