GBPUSD hovered around 1.3834 on Thursday, close to its highest level since August 2021. While sterling itself lacks fresh bullish catalysts, rising volatility in the US dollar has continued to provide support for the pair.

The recent weakness in the dollar mainly reflects a market repricing of US policy and capital flows. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington has no plans to intervene in the FX market by selling the Japanese yen. The remark was interpreted as a restrained stance on exchange-rate issues, reinforcing existing “sell-America” trade sentiment and weighing further on the dollar.

Meanwhile, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting and slightly upgraded its economic outlook, reinforcing expectations of an extended rate pause. However, markets have not fully embraced a hawkish interpretation. Investors widely believe that if former President Trump were to replace Jerome Powell with a more dovish Fed chair in the future, US monetary policy could still re-enter an easing cycle. This medium- to long-term uncertainty continues to act as a potential drag on the dollar.

With the Fed temporarily on hold, market attention has shifted to the Bank of England (BoE). Markets broadly expect the BoE to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75% at next week’s meeting. This expectation is supported by recent UK inflation data — December inflation rose to 3.4%, while retail sales figures pointed to renewed price pressures, leaving the BoE with little room to pivot decisively toward easing in the near term.

Looking ahead, while sterling fundamentals have not deteriorated materially, the prior rapid rally has significantly increased short-term correction risks. Combined with signals from short-cycle price structures, GBPUSD appears more likely to be transitioning from high-level consolidation into a pullback phase. If the adjustment extends, the pair may retreat toward the 1.3500 area, which marks the base of the previous upswing.

From a technical perspective, intraday price action in GBPUSD is broadly neutral. However, below the interim high at 1.3867, signs of a failed short-term inverse head-and-shoulders pattern have emerged, suggesting that bullish momentum is fading quickly and downside risks are building.

On the downside, initial support is located at 1.3641. A break below this level could open the door for a deeper pullback toward the 1.3500 zone, corresponding to the key origin of the prior rally.

Conversely, if 1.3641 holds and caps downside pressure, bulls may attempt to retest resistance at 1.3901. A decisive break above 1.3901 would shift the medium-term target higher toward the 1.4246–1.4248 area, near a major structural resistance zone.

Overall, based on current structure and momentum, we lean toward a scenario in which a break below 1.3641 triggers a deeper corrective move.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.3825

Target Price: 1.3500

Stop Loss: 1.3999

Valid Until: February 24, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 1.3788 / 1.3749 / 1.3641

Resistance: 1.3867 / 1.3893 / 1.3916

The Australian Dollar extended its advance against the US Dollar on Thursday, with AUD/USD trading near 0.7050, up roughly 0.25% on the session, as investors reacted to firmer-than-expected domestic inflation data that has significantly shifted expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia policy.

The move highlights how sensitive currency markets remain to even modest shifts in rate outlooks. In Australia’s case, the latest price data has reinforced the view that inflation pressures are proving more persistent than policymakers had hoped, raising the probability that the RBA may be forced to resume tightening sooner rather than later.

According to market pricing reflected in interest rate derivatives and ASX’s RBA Rate Tracker, traders now assign better than a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the next central bank meeting. That represents a sharp repricing compared to just a few weeks ago, when investors were leaning toward an extended pause. The turnaround in expectations has given the Australian Dollar a renewed yield advantage, improving its appeal relative to other major currencies where central banks are either pausing or edging toward easing.

The underlying inflation report showed accelerating price pressures across both headline and core measures, suggesting that disinflation progress has stalled. Importantly, cost pressures were not confined to volatile components. Instead, price gains were broad-based, reflecting resilience in domestic demand and continued strength in services inflation — a combination that complicates the policy outlook for the RBA.

Adding to the concern, the latest quarterly trade price data revealed rising export and import prices, signaling that external cost pressures remain in play. This dynamic increases the risk that inflation could stay elevated for longer, even if global goods prices continue to normalize. For the central bank, that creates a difficult balancing act: tightening policy further could weigh on already stretched households, but failing to act risks allowing inflation expectations to become unanchored.

In my view, the RBA is edging closer to a point where it has little room to rely solely on rhetoric. With inflation still clearly above target and economic activity holding up better than many expected, policymakers may prefer to deliver at least one additional hike to reinforce their inflation-fighting credibility. That possibility is now being reflected in currency markets, where the Aussie has regained upward traction.

Still, gains in AUD/USD have been tempered by a steadier US Dollar backdrop. The Greenback found renewed footing after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated Washington’s long-standing commitment to a strong dollar policy, helping to calm markets after a recent wave of selling pressure. His comments followed remarks from President Donald Trump earlier in the week that appeared to downplay the currency’s slide, which had pushed the Dollar Index toward multi-year lows.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision offered little immediate directional bias but reinforced a “higher-for-longer” narrative. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing that future decisions will remain data-dependent. With US growth still solid and inflation proving sticky, traders have scaled back expectations for rapid rate cuts, lending additional support to US yields and, by extension, the Dollar.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding firm near 96.38, reflecting this stabilization. Upcoming US data — including weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs — could influence short-term rate expectations and inject volatility into AUD/USD. Strong US labor or cost data would likely bolster the Greenback, while softer readings could allow the Aussie to extend its recovery.

For now, however, the dominant driver remains the Australian side of the equation. As long as incoming data continues to point toward persistent inflation and markets maintain confidence in further RBA action, dips in AUD/USD may attract buyers. That said, the pair’s upside could remain gradual rather than explosive, given the counterbalance of a still-resilient US Dollar and lingering uncertainty over the global growth outlook.

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD remains firmly embedded in a well-defined bullish structure on the 2-hour chart. Price action continues to respect a rising trendline that has guided the advance since the mid-January lows, with the pair consistently printing higher highs and higher lows. The latest pullback has brought the pair back toward this ascending trendline, which is now converging with the 0.7050–0.7060 area and acting as key dynamic support. So far, buyers have defended this zone, keeping the broader uptrend intact.

Recent price behavior suggests consolidation rather than reversal. The pair stalled just ahead of the 0.7100 handle, a near-term horizontal resistance level that has capped multiple upside attempts. The pullback from this region has been relatively shallow and overlapping, typical of a corrective move within an ongoing uptrend rather than the start of a bearish phase. As long as price remains above the rising trendline, dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.

A decisive break and sustained move above 0.7100 would confirm bullish continuation and signal that buyers have regained full control. In that scenario, the next upside targets come in near 0.7150, followed by the 0.7200 psychological level. The projected move illustrated on the chart suggests potential for an extension toward the 0.7280–0.7300 zone if bullish momentum accelerates and the trend structure remains orderly.

On the downside, the ascending trendline is the critical technical level to watch. A clear 2-hour close below 0.7045–0.7050 would represent a short-term structural shift, breaking the sequence of higher lows and opening the door for a deeper corrective pullback. Initial downside targets would then be seen near the 0.7000 psychological handle, with further weakness exposing the 0.6950 region, where prior consolidation and demand emerged.

Overall, AUD/USD retains a constructive technical bias while trading above rising trendline support. The broader trend remains bullish, with consolidation below 0.7100 appearing to be a pause within the uptrend rather than a topping formation.

BUY AUD/USD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.7060

STOP LOSS: 0.7015

TAKE PROFIT: 0.7200

Gold prices extended their extraordinary rally on Thursday, adding another leg to what has become one of the most powerful bullion advances in recent memory. The spot price of XAU/USD built on the prior session’s hefty gains — nearly 4% — and pushed toward fresh record highs, trading around $5,522 at the time of writing after an intraday peak near $5,598. The relentless upside has been fuelled by a potent mix of intensifying geopolitical tensions, broad weakness in the US Dollar and persistent expectations of easier monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

The precious metal’s dramatic ascent underscores how markets are pricing an elevated risk premium for safe-haven assets amid renewed geopolitical risks. At the same time, underlying structural drivers — including robust physical demand and speculative inflows — are amplifying gold’s move. Traders, investors and central banks alike appear unwilling to step back from allocation to gold, even as traditional drivers such as inflation and real yields wane and wax unpredictably.

Heightened geopolitical frictions have emerged as a clear catalyst for bullion’s surge this week, particularly after reports suggesting that the United States is contemplating significant military action involving Iran. According to media accounts, senior US officials are considering a major strike — a scenario that, if realised, would mark a dramatic escalation in tensions across the Middle East. Whether or not a strike ultimately unfolds, the mere prospect has been enough to elevate gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Compounding this has been an aggressive rhetorical stance from Washington, with the US President reiterating stern warnings on social media about deteriorating timelines and increasingly severe consequences should Iran fail to negotiate over its nuclear programme. Markets have historically priced gold aggressively on even faint whiffs of conflict, and this episode appears no different.

This geopolitical risk premium is acting against the backdrop of an emboldened “debasement trade” narrative — the idea that the US Dollar will continue to weaken as a result of expansive fiscal and monetary policy approaches in the world’s largest economy. Gold, as the quintessential safe-haven and dollar hedge, has benefited disproportionately from that narrative taking hold across asset markets.

Indeed, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, has struggled near four-year lows, hovering around the 96.3 area. Continued dollar fragility has enhanced the allure of gold as an alternative store of value. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent aimed at steadying markets by reiterating America’s long-run commitment to a strong dollar have offered only short-lived respite. Traders remain sceptical, in part because the tone coming from the White House has been at odds with traditional Federal Reserve principles.

On monetary policy, the Fed’s recent decision to hold interest rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range did little to alter market expectations. The central bank’s statement highlighted solid economic activity, moderating labour market dynamics and continued inflationary pressures — a mixed message that left traders focused squarely on future easing prospects rather than the current plateau. Futures markets still price in roughly two rate cuts this year, a projection that has underpinned gold’s advance by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

The backdrop of potential changes at the Fed’s helm is adding another layer of uncertainty. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that an announcement on the next Fed Chair could come within weeks, with names such as Rick Rieder, Christopher Waller and Kevin Warsh reportedly under consideration. Markets are keenly aware that a leadership shift could tilt the central bank’s stance. A perceived pivot toward more dovish settings would only deepen the current gold rally.

Beyond the immediate drivers of safety flows and monetary policy, structural fundamentals remain robust. The World Gold Council reported earlier this week that global gold demand in 2025 exceeded 5,000 tonnes for the first time on record — a milestone driven by exceptionally strong investment appetite. Central bank purchases were particularly robust, with 863 tonnes acquired during the year, while gold ETF holdings rose by 801 tonnes — the second-largest annual increase ever recorded. Bar and coin demand also climbed to a 12-year high, illustrating broad-based interest from both institutional and retail participants.

These figures suggest that gold’s ascent is not purely driven by short-term geopolitical or macroeconomic forces but is also rooted in rising allocations across portfolios and reserve holdings. Central banks emerging markets — most notably in Asia and the Middle East — have been diversifying reserves away from fiat currencies, favoring bullion as a long-term hedge against currency volatility and systemic risk.

Going into the weekend, traders are eyeing the US economic calendar for additional clues about the macro backdrop. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, along with productivity and labour cost readings, could influence rate expectations. However, given the dominant role that geopolitical headlines have assumed, traditional economic indicators may take a back seat in guiding market sentiment — at least in the near term.

From a technical perspective, gold remains in a broader intraday uptrend, but is currently undergoing a healthy consolidation phase after a sharp impulsive rally. On the 30-minute chart, price action shows a strong bullish leg that accelerated from the $5,300 region to above $5,550 before stalling near a key resistance band.

Prices are now fluctuating between the $5,490–$5,500 support zone and the $5,580–$5,600 resistance area, forming a short-term corrective structure that resembles a bullish flag / descending wedge within the context of a larger rising trendline. Importantly, price continues to respect the ascending trendline drawn from the recent swing low, which reinforces that the broader structure still favors the upside.

The $5,490–$5,500 zone is acting as immediate demand. This area aligns with a previous breakout level and has repeatedly attracted buyers during the latest pullbacks. As long as price holds above this band, the consolidation appears constructive rather than bearish. A decisive break below this support, however, would shift focus toward the next downside level near $5,260, where prior consolidation and breakout structure originated. A sustained move below $5,260 would mark a deeper correction and temporarily weaken the bullish market structure.

On the upside, bulls are watching for a sustained break above the $5,580–$5,600 resistance zone. This area capped the recent rally and represents the last supply barrier before price can expand into open territory again. A clean breakout above this region would confirm trend continuation and likely accelerate momentum toward the $5,700–$5,750 zone, in line with the projected upward path shown on the chart.

The current pullback is occurring with overlapping candles and reduced downside momentum, which typically signals consolidation rather than distribution. Structurally, this pause appears to be a digestion of gains following an overextended rally, allowing the trend to reset before a potential next leg higher.

Overall, the technical outlook remains bullish while price holds above $5,490, with the current structure favoring breakout continuation rather than reversal.

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 5,540

STOP LOSS: 5,470

TAKE PROFIT: 5,700

The current surge in spot gold prices continues to demonstrate strength, reaching multiple historical highs and momentarily surpassing US$5,600 amidst high volatility and significant trading volume throughout the trading session. This rapid ascent is not an isolated event but results from the confluence of multiple macroeconomic and structural factors: heightened demand for safe-haven assets, a weakening U.S. dollar coupled with declining real interest rates, and increased capital inflows driven by institutional investors and sovereign or official sector purchases, collectively propelling gold prices to new record levels.

The primary drivers originate from geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties—recent escalations in U.S.-Iran tensions and broader geopolitical risks have amplified market demand for risk-hedging assets, prompting increased allocation to gold as a safe asset. Additionally, shifts in the monetary policy and interest rate environment—namely, the short-term pressure on the USD and a decline in both nominal and real yields in the United States—have reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, thereby attracting safe-haven and portfolio diversification inflows. Furthermore, the significant rise in institutional demand, evidenced by continuous inflows into ETFs and other investment vehicles—recording unprecedented volumes in 2025–2026—and the explicit inclusion of gold in portfolios by major institutions and financial platforms as a hedge or substitute for cash positions, has established a steady channel of incremental demand. These factors reinforce each other, and despite fluctuations in net purchases by some official entities, such as certain central banks, overall capital flows remain supportive of further gains in gold prices.

The structural demand and market dynamics have amplified volatility, as the listing and expansion of gold ETFs attract substantial retail and institutional short-term capital inflows. This results in near "rushing" price surges in gold during news or sentiment-driven triggers, thereby enlarging trading volume and volatility. Simultaneously, there are emerging narratives comparing gold to de-dollarization or positioning it as a long-term portfolio alternative, which further catalyzes proactive positioning by medium- and long-term investors. These buying behaviors encompass both risk-averse short-term capital and some passive long-term allocations, collectively enabling brief pullbacks to be swiftly absorbed.

The intraday trend indicates that gold is currently consolidating at elevated levels following a robust upward rally. Multiple attempts to breach the 5600 resistance level have failed, suggesting a potential weakening of short-term bullish momentum. The short-term moving averages are aligned bullishly, yet momentum indicators such as RSI have entered overbought territory, and MACD histogram remains elevated, signaling diminishing bullish vigor. This increases the likelihood of a short-term correction; however, it does not necessarily imply an imminent trend reversal. The key factor will be whether the retracement can be effectively absorbed by buying volume supported by market participation.

Currently, resistance zones are identified at 5600-5630. A daily close above 5630 would suggest a higher probability of continued bullish movement. Conversely, if there is significant volume-driven profit-taking at higher levels and the daily close falls below 5600, caution should be exercised as a potential corrective phase may initiate.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 5580.00

Target Price: 5335.00

Stop Loss: 5650.00

Valid Until: February12, 2026 23:00:00

Support: 5470.00, 5300.00

Resistance: 5600.00, 5630.00

The Bank of Canada announced on Wednesday that the policy benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 2.25%, marking the second consecutive pause, in line with market expectations. Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that the prevailing economic environment faces "unusually high" uncertainty, making it challenging to determine the timing and direction of the next rate adjustment. In the latest quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the Bank maintained its outlook of modest economic growth over the coming years and projected that inflation would roughly fluctuate around the 2% target within the forecast period. The Bank noted that, compared to its October 2025 projections, the global and Canadian economic outlooks have seen little change but remain highly exposed to U.S. trade policies and geopolitical risks. U.S. economic growth has surpassed expectations, supported mainly by investments and consumption related to artificial intelligence, with tariffs temporarily boosting inflation; however, these effects are expected to diminish gradually later this year. The global economy's average growth rate during the forecast period is estimated at about 3%. Domestically, the Bank anticipates short-term economic growth may slow, with a risk of GDP stagnation in the fourth quarter. Export activity has been impacted by U.S. tariffs, but domestic demand has rebounded, and employment has experienced some growth. The unemployment rate remains elevated at approximately 6.8%, with ongoing weak hiring intentions among businesses. The Bank has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.7%, while maintaining its outlooks for 2026 and 2027 at 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively. Regarding inflation, the December 2024 CPI increased to 2.4%, primarily reflecting base effects from prior GST/HST tax holidays. Core inflation has declined from 3% in October of last year to approximately 2.5%. The Bank expects that trade-related cost pressures will be offset by excess supply within the economy, with overall inflation remaining near the 2% target. The Bank emphasizes that the current interest rate level is appropriate but will closely monitor risk developments in this highly uncertain environment and adjust its policy stance if necessary.

The Federal Reserve concluded its meeting on Wednesday by maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. The policy statement reflected that economic activity in the United States continues to expand steadily, with inflation remaining elevated. The labor market has shown signs of stabilization after previous softening. No explicit guidance was provided regarding the timing or magnitude of future rate cuts, emphasizing that subsequent policy adjustments will depend on incoming data and economic outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that, over the past three meetings, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points, and that the current stance remains appropriate to support maximum employment and bring inflation back to the 2% target. He noted that the U.S. economy is projected to grow steadily through 2025 and enter 2026 on a relatively solid footing. Recent labor market stabilization, characterized by slowed employment growth, is largely attributed to diminished labor supply growth, including reduced immigration and declining labor force participation. Meanwhile, the housing sector remains subdued. Regarding inflation, Powell acknowledged that inflation remains slightly above target, with the December core PCE inflation rate projected to be around 3%. He attributed the current inflationary pressures primarily to comprehensive tariff policies rather than demand overheating, suggesting that tariffs' impact on prices may be transitory and expected to peak this year before gradually declining. Powell also reaffirmed the importance of the Federal Reserve’s independence, warning that any erosion of this independence could severely undermine the central bank’s credibility and public trust. Outside macroeconomic policy discussions, a recent IMF study highlighted structural constraints on Canada's economic potential, noting that internal market segmentation significantly hampers growth. The IMF estimates that trade barriers between Canadian provinces function as internal tariffs of approximately 9%, and eliminating these barriers could increase the country’s GDP by around 7%, equivalent to an annual output boost of approximately 210 billion CAD.

In the 1W timeframe, the price has broken below the EMA200 and the lower Bollinger Band, with the MACD's MACD line and signal line forming a death cross near the zero-axis, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. If the price remains below the EMA200, it is highly likely to decline toward key support levels around 1.35 and 1.342, near previous lows. The RSI value at 35 indicates an oversold condition, suggesting the market is in a downtrend but prone to potential rebounds, with peak levels gradually declining. In the 1Q timeframe, Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and moving averages are flattening, signifying weakened upward momentum. After breaking below the EMA12, there are no signs of a reversal, implying the price may decline toward the middle Bollinger Band at approximately 1.34. The RSI at 51 reflects a neutral market sentiment, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach. Therefore, it is recommended to go long before going short.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.35

Target Price: 1.38

Stop Loss: 1.33

Support: 1.35, 1.325, 1.28

Resistance: 1.38, 1.4, 1.42

The cryptocurrency market is once again under pressure as the macroeconomic environment rapidly deteriorates amid escalating trade and geopolitical concerns. These developments have heightened worries about economic growth, policy uncertainty, and capital flows. Such trends reflect investors' growing anxiety over liquidity and geopolitical risks, which will impact the valuation of crypto assets and may trigger volatility across global financial markets.

From a market structure perspective, the current wave of selling suggests that Bitcoin's pullback since last November may have concluded. Price action has clearly turned downward, and if market risk sentiment continues to deteriorate, the risk of a renewed overall downtrend increases.

Additionally, some argue that the greatest risk facing Bitcoin does not stem from any single geopolitical event, but rather from the potential for such shocks to reignite inflation expectations, push up yields, and tighten financial conditions once again. Financial markets are currently experiencing inflationary pressures, which could trigger higher yields and tighter financial conditions. Meanwhile, the rise of gold as a safe-haven asset signals a shift in investor sentiment. This underscores that Bitcoin's position as “digital gold” in the market may be weakened.

Increased USDC redemptions and declining capital inflows have intensified capital concerns. On-chain data indicates a shrinking stablecoin supply and tightening liquidity. The market anticipates challenges following the expiration of a large volume of Bitcoin options.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's rebound from US$80,492 appears to have peaked at US$97,922, having previously encountered resistance near US$97,986 from the 38.2% retracement level of the US$126,289 to US$80,492 range and the 55-week moving average. A decisive break below the US$86,405 support level would further reinforce the view that the downtrend originating from US$126,289 remains intact, potentially triggering another comprehensive test of the US$80,492 low.

If it falls below US$80,492, market focus will shift to a deeper mid-term pullback. Based on this, the next major downside target is the psychological threshold near US$70,000, which aligns with the 50% retracement level of the long-term uptrend from the 2022 low of US$15,452 to the 2025 high of US$126,289—specifically at US$70,870.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 93500

Target Price: 70870

Stop Loss: 99900

Valid Until: February 23, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 85932, 80492, 74333

Resistance: 91586, 94236, 97986