Euro Rises Against Pound Amid UK Growth Concerns, Soft Jobs Market

Economic

Summary:

The Euro advanced against the Pound on Monday as soft UK GDP data and dovish rhetoric from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey weighed on Sterling.

BUY EURGBP

Close Time

CLOSED

0.86649

Entry Price

0.88000

0.86000

0.87789 +0.00113 +0.13%

9.8

Pips

Profit

0.86000

0.86747

Exit Price

0.86649

Entry Price

0.88000

The Euro (EUR) edged higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, with the EUR/GBP currency pair climbing to fresh two-week highs around 0.8710 as investors reacted to a deteriorating economic outlook for the UK and growing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) is preparing to ease policy more aggressively in the months ahead. The move reflects a broad reassessment of interest rate expectations, compounded by disappointing macro data and mounting signs of labor market softness in the UK economy.

The upward trajectory in EUR/GBP marks a continuation of the pair’s recent bullish bias, driven by renewed Sterling weakness rather than Euro strength per se. At the core of this week’s bearish sentiment on the Pound is the latest batch of UK economic indicators, which signal that Britain may be slipping into a period of stagnation — if not outright contraction — just as fiscal pressures and labor market frictions deepen.

According to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday, the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in May — following a sharper-than-expected 0.3% contraction in April. The downturn was broad-based, with declines in manufacturing output, industrial production, and construction activity all weighing heavily on headline GDP. Only the services sector posted a modest uptick, and even that was tepid.

The back-to-back monthly contractions have sparked fresh concerns that the UK may be entering a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. While the BoE has remained cautious in its economic assessments, the data is now forcing policymakers and markets alike to confront the risk of a deeper slowdown — one that might warrant faster or larger interest rate cuts.

Compounding Sterling’s woes was a candid interview from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who on Monday reiterated the central bank's intention to shift toward an easing cycle. Speaking with The Times, Bailey acknowledged the emergence of “slack” in the economy, partly due to increased employer national insurance contributions, which are starting to weigh on business confidence and hiring.

“I really do believe the path is downward,” Bailey said, referring to interest rates. He emphasized that any rate cuts would be delivered in a “gradual and careful” fashion — but also added that if economic slack materializes faster than expected, the BoE would not hesitate to act more decisively.

His remarks come at a pivotal moment for UK monetary policy. Recent surveys suggest the labor market — long considered a bulwark of resilience — is now beginning to cool rapidly. A KPMG-REC report released last week showed that permanent job placements fell at the sharpest rate in over two years, while staff availability rose at its fastest pace since 2020. Official data also revealed that unemployment ticked up to 4.6% in the three months to April, marking the highest level since the pandemic era.

With growth slipping and employment faltering, markets have become increasingly confident that the BoE will initiate its rate-cutting cycle as soon as the August meeting. As of Monday, swaps pricing implies a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut next month, with markets anticipating a total of 75 basis points in easing over the next 12 months.

On the European side of the equation, the single currency has remained remarkably steady, even as the European Union faces simmering trade tensions with the United States. While no immediate trade measures have been enacted, the threat of retaliatory tariffs from the US remains on the radar, particularly as Washington reevaluates its industrial policy vis-à-vis Europe.

Despite this, the European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a measured stance. ECB officials, including Governor François Villeroy de Galhau and Chief Economist Philip Lane, have repeatedly signaled that while further rate cuts are possible, they will proceed with caution given persistent inflation risks. Eurozone inflation, although moderating, remains sticky enough to warrant vigilance, and policymakers are wary of moving too quickly.

This divergence in central bank outlooks — with the BoE preparing to accelerate rate cuts while the ECB takes a more patient approach — continues to provide structural support for the Euro, especially against currencies like the Pound that are facing more acute domestic pressures.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, EUR/GBP remains in a well-defined uptrend, having broken above a key consolidation zone. The pair is currently testing immediate resistance near 0.8700 and appears set to challenge the psychologically significant 0.8715 level — a horizontal structure that has acted as both support and resistance in the past.

The broader technical landscape shows continued bullish momentum, with dips toward 0.8620 — the previous consolidation base — likely to be viewed as buying opportunities. A successful rebound from this support level would reinforce the bullish bias and could drive the pair toward the next upside target at 0.8740, where longer-term resistance comes into play.

Should the pair breach that level, a potential move toward 0.8780–0.8800 could materialize, especially if incoming UK data continues to disappoint or if dovish BoE rhetoric intensifies. Conversely, a failure to hold above 0.8620 would weaken the short-term bullish structure and open the door for a corrective pullback toward the 50-day moving average around 0.8550.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURGBP

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8665

STOP LOSS: 0.8600

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8800

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Gold prices remained locked in a high-level consolidation range Monday as the market split into two camps. Several institutional investors continue to champion gold's medium- to long-term bull case, while a growing contingent argues that near-term upside momentum is fading and a wide-swing trading phase is likely ahead.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3360.63

Entry Price

3429.00

3229.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

59.7

Pips

Profit

3229.00

3366.60

Exit Price

3360.63

Entry Price

3429.00

Fundamentals

Volatility has intensified in recent sessions, driven by the back-and-forth on U.S. tariff policy and heightened uncertainty over the Fed's rate trajectory. Although bullish sentiment is still prevalent, spot gold has repeatedly failed to effect a clean breakout from its current congestion zone.

On the tariff front, US President Trump signed an executive order extending the pause on reciprocal levies until after 1 August and simultaneously dispatched fresh tariff letters targeting copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. The news rekindled haven demand across asset classes.

Monetary policy minutes from the June FOMC meeting revealed a divided committee: officials disagreed on how aggressively tariff-related price pressures could feed into inflation. Overall uncertainty has eased modestly since the prior meeting but remains elevated by historical standards.

CME FedWatch now prices a 93.3% probability of an unchanged policy rate at the July meeting, with only a 6.7% chance of a 25 bp cut. By September, the probability of no change falls to 59.7%, while cumulative probabilities for 25 bp and 50 bp cuts stand at 36.2% and 4.1%, respectively.

Escalating trade tensions and sticky inflation have caused the market to pare September easing bets, providing a headwind for gold's next leg higher.

Bull-Bear Schism Deepens—Are Gold Longs Primed for a Momentum Surge?_1

Technical Analysis

Safe-haven flows surged after Trump's latest tariff announcement, pushing spot gold to an intraday high near US$3,375 Monday.

The break above the US$3,346 resistance has unleashed follow-through buying, cementing short-term bullish control. On the four-hour chart, momentum remains constructive, with scope for an assault on the psychological US$3,400 handle.

Downside cushions are layered at US$3,326. A breach could attract dip-buyers and keep the metal above US$3,300. A deeper pullback toward US$3,282 is technically possible but appears unlikely under current risk-off conditions.

Overall, gold is likely to remain in a high-level consolidation, but the short-term uptrend is intact. Tactical positioning retains a mild bullish bias.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 3360

Target Price: 3429

Stop Loss: 3329

Deadline: July 29, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3366/3360/3353

Resistance: 3375/3386/3393

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

The Trump administration's threat to impose an additional 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU reignited global trade friction concerns, driving gold prices higher.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3367.75

Entry Price

3425.00

3335.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

327.5

Pips

Loss

3335.00

3334.96

Exit Price

3367.75

Entry Price

3425.00

Fundamentals

As of the Asian trading session today, gold has maintained a clear upward trend, with prices briefly climbing to a new July high of 3373.82. This rebound is the result of a combination of macroeconomic and market sentiment factors.

On one hand, Trump's latest threat to impose 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico has fueled fears of global trade friction again, prompting investors to flock to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset amid uncertainty about global economic growth prospects. On the other hand, the market is eagerly awaiting the release of the U.S. June CPI report on Tuesday for more clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Now, the market expects the Fed to cut rates by slightly more than 50 basis points by December.

Additionally, demand dynamics in major Asian consumer countries are subtly influencing gold's trajectory. Although China and India are the world's largest physical gold buyers, the market is cautious due to recent sharp price fluctuations, newly introduced anti-money laundering, and counter-terrorism regulations. China's spot premium remains stable at $10–25 per ounce, while India's market has delayed its traditional buying season due to the monsoon and policy uncertainty. This relative weakness in physical demand appears to dampen gold's short-term upward momentum, but it also limits excessive declines in prices while safe-haven demand is subdued.

Fine-tuning in speculative positions further confirms the delicate balance in the current gold market. The latest CFTC report shows that as of the week ending July 8th, speculators' net long positions in gold and silver decreased by 1,855 contracts, reflecting some profit-taking by short-term bulls. Although speculators decided to partially cash in at high levels, their net long positions remain near historical highs due to medium- to long-term policy and sentiment factors, providing solid support for gold prices.

Technical Analysis

Renewed Tariff Threats, Is Gold Poised for a Historic High?_1

Judging from the daily chart, gold is currently staying in a high-range consolidation phase, trading within the 3250.00–3437.00 range. After successfully bottoming out at 3247.90 on June 30th, gold has maintained an upward trend and may test the upper boundary of the range at 3437.00.

Renewed Tariff Threats, Is Gold Poised for a Historic High?_2

Meanwhile, gold recently broke through a short-term downtrend channel in the 4H chart, shifting the near-term trend from bearish to bullish. Prices surpassed 3365.54 today, further opening up upside potential. The first target is the psychological level of 3400.00. If this level is breached, prices may rise toward 3437.00.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3360.00

Target price: 3425.00

Stop loss: 3335.00

Valid Until: July 28, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 3345.64/3330.25

Resistance: 3396.78/3451.10

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

GBP/USD is trading between 1.3460–1.3505, supported by a weaker USD amid trade‑tariff jitters and BoE’s cautious-but-steady tone. With bottoming price action and technical structure in focus, a dip‑buy setup toward 1.3600–1.3635 presents opportunity....

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.34602

Entry Price

1.36000

1.34350

1.33707 -0.00148 -0.11%

25.2

Pips

Loss

1.34350

Exit Price

1.34602

Entry Price

1.36000

Market Overview

Sterling has remained resilient despite tariffs and weak UK data. BoE’s half-year financial stability report and the UK‑U.S. trade deal limit downside. However, disappointing GDP (‑0.1% in May) and tariff concerns cap gains. USD softness from Trump‑driven trade risks and Fed uncertainty supports GBP.

Recent range: 1.3460–1.3505, slightly lower but stabilized as GBP benefits from USD weakness and limited BoE fallout.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment is mixed risk aversion supports USD, but tariff pressures and USD weakness tilt bias toward GBP buying on dips . Market positioning shows dip-buy behavior with technical setups suggesting corrections higher.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD holds firm near 1.3460–1.3500 zone—Buy dip into 1.3600 resistance?_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): Price hovering near mid‑band (~1.3480) after dipping from upper band potential spring for reversal.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): Shorts are capped, and cloud support above ~1.3450 suggests base for longs.

Stochastic (5,3,3): Oversold zone with upward crossover classic buy trigger.

Chart Structure: M15 shows higher lows within 1.3460–1.3505 range. Weekly/4H suggest bullish channel aiming toward 1.3635.

Trade Recommendation

Entry (Long): 1.3460–1.3480 – dip toward BB mid or cloud support

Take Profit: 1.3600 – psychological barrier and weekly structure resistance

Stop Loss: 1.3435

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Commodity

Summary:

Today, gold is trading near $3,354–$3,373/oz, buoyed by a surge in safe‑haven demand triggered by new U.S. tariff threats. With technicals supportive and fundamental outlooks pointing to possible breaks above $3,435, the setup favors a bullish breakout....

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3360.00

Entry Price

3373.00

3345.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

130.0

Pips

Profit

3345.00

3373.09

Exit Price

3360.00

Entry Price

3373.00

Market Overview

On July 14, 2025, spot gold surged to a three‑week high (~$3,355/oz) as President Trump threatened 30 % tariffs on the EU and Mexico effective August 1 renewing safe‑haven bids. The forecasts suggest prices could push toward $3,435 if gold closes above $3,360. Meanwhile, central bank stockpiling continues, reinforcing underlying structural support.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment remains firmly bullish. Trade tensions and geopolitical unpredictability drive renewed interest in gold as a portfolio hedge. Data shows central banks are accumulating over 1,000 tonnes/year, while gold ETFs attracted inflows of around $30 billion in Q1.

Technical Analysis

Gold climbs to three‑week high at $3,355–$3,370 amid rising trade‑tariff tension_1

Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is riding the upper band (~$3,370) with a squeeze breakout potential momentum strongly positive.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): On lower timeframes, spot gold sits well above the cloud bullish confirmation.

Stochastic (5,3,3): Near high but not yet extreme room exists before overbought territory.

Chart Structure: A bullish ascending channel and triangle pattern confirmed on weekly and M15 charts. Weekly forecast suggests a bounce from weekly support near $3,315, enabling continuation to $3,845 target zone. Current channel resistance lies around $3,374–$3,373, key short‑term level .

Trade Recommendation

Entry (Long): $3,355–$3,365 after confirmation of upper BB breakout or rejection off cloud midline

Take Profit: $3,373–$3,374 next resistance, upper BB, recent daily high

Stop Loss: $3,340 beneath lower BB and recent M15/Kijun support

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Political

Summary:

If this bounce holds, it could pave the way for a continued rally toward the next resistance zone around 1.3884.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36498

Entry Price

1.38840

1.35200

1.37700 0.00000 0.00%

44.9

Pips

Loss

1.35200

1.36049

Exit Price

1.36498

Entry Price

1.38840

Tensions between the U.S. and Canada escalated after President Trump issued a formal letter to Ottawa announcing the implementation of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1. As has become customary, the move was justified by citing the alleged influx of fentanyl into the U.S. from Canadian territory. Currency analyst Michael Pfister from Commerzbank noted that Canada’s prior retaliatory response to previous tariffs may have further provoked the current escalation—something Trump has historically shown little tolerance for.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by emphasizing continued diplomatic engagement with the U.S. as both nations approach the looming August 1 deadline. While the Canadian dollar (CAD) has managed to stabilize in the near term, the renewed tariff threat has added tension to an already delicate backdrop—particularly ahead of Canada's closely watched labor market data due today.

Meanwhile, political speculation is swirling in Washington. Bill Pulte, Trump’s nominee to head the Federal Housing Finance Agency and former chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, referenced unverified reports suggesting that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might be considering stepping down. In a public statement, Pulte said, “I’m encouraged by reports that Jerome Powell is contemplating resignation. I believe this would be the right move for America, and the economy would thrive as a result.”

Pulte, a staunch Trump ally, has repeatedly voiced his belief that the U.S. president should have direct control over Federal Reserve interest rate decisions—a view that has stirred concerns over the Fed’s independence. It is worth noting that the rumors regarding Powell's resignation remain unconfirmed and speculative at this stage.

Minutes from the Fed’s June 17–18 policy meeting reaffirmed the central bank’s cautious stance, with the majority of officials still concerned about upward inflation risks, particularly those stemming from Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda. While only a few members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) backed the idea of a rate cut in July, the overall hawkish tone helped the U.S. dollar remain strong, near a two-week high as of Thursday.

On the macroeconomic front, fresh data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 for the week ending July 5, beating market expectations and dropping below the previous revised figure of 232,000. This, combined with the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data released last week, reinforces the resilience of the U.S. labor market and suggests that immediate rate cuts are unlikely.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also weighed in, noting that current monetary policy remains restrictive. While she acknowledged that tariffs are not as impactful as previously feared, she indicated that the Fed could begin considering rate adjustments should underlying fundamentals point toward a softening economic outlook. Support Zone Could Be the Launchpad for a Renewed Uptrend_1

Support Zone Could Be the Launchpad for a Renewed Uptrend_1

Technical Analysis

USDCAD has found firm support near the 1.3589 level—an area that has previously served as a reliable springboard for bullish momentum. The pair recently posted a strong close above the 9-period moving average, a development that may signal a shift in short-term trend dynamics. If this bounce holds, it could pave the way for a continued rally toward the next resistance zone around 1.3884.

Further supporting the bullish case, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped to 27 on June 13, coinciding with the local low of 1.3545. Since then, no new lower lows have been made, hinting at the possibility of a bottom forming in this region. With price stability returning and technical indicators pointing toward recovery, the conditions may be aligning for an extended bullish move from current levels.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3650

Target price: 1.3884

Stop loss: 1.3520

Validity: Jul 22, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

If the price action fails to break above 3355 and shows rejection at this resistance, a bearish correction could unfold from current levels.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3365.00

Entry Price

3312.00

3395.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

165.6

Pips

Profit

3312.00

3348.44

Exit Price

3365.00

Entry Price

3395.00

In the second quarter of the year, net gold purchases by ETF investors totaled 170 tonnes, pushing the total to 397 tonnes in the first half of 2025. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), this marked the strongest first-half inflow into gold ETFs in five years. These inflows played a key role in propelling gold to a record high in April, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

However, recent weeks have seen the influence of ETF buying on gold prices begin to fade, suggesting that the bullish driver from institutional flows may be losing steam, at least in the short term.

Adding fuel to gold’s safe-haven demand, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1. This move follows a series of more than 20 similar tariff notices issued by Trump since the start of the week, including a separate 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports announced last Wednesday. The flurry of aggressive trade measures has pushed investors toward safe assets such as gold.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 17–18 policy meeting revealed that most policymakers remain concerned about upside inflation risks, largely driven by Trump’s escalating trade policies. While only a few officials supported the idea of a rate cut as early as this month, the hawkish tone helped the U.S. dollar hold near a two-week high recorded on Thursday.

On the economic front, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 for the week ending July 5, better than expected and below the prior revised reading of 232,000. Combined with last week’s stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, this supports the view that the labor market remains robust and removes urgency for immediate rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that monetary policy remains restrictive and that the time may be approaching to consider adjusting rates. She added that while tariffs are not as severe as previously anticipated, underlying economic fundamentals could justify lower rates in the near future.

Separately, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the inflationary effects of tariffs are likely to be short-lived, emphasizing that any decision to cut rates would not be politically motivated. Waller, seen as a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2026, reiterated his call for a potential rate cut as early as July. Another Failure at Resistance May Lead to a Bearish Reversal_1

Another Failure at Resistance May Lead to a Bearish Reversal_1

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD has climbed to retest the 3366 level—a local high that has acted as strong resistance on two recent occasions. The price also tapped this area on July 2, triggering a sharp downside move from that level. A similar reaction this time around could once again lead to a correction toward the next local support around 3310.

On the 4-hour chart, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are positioned at 3329 and 3340 respectively. Although price action remains above both moving averages, the RSI has risen to 67, nearing the overbought threshold. Notably, this RSI surge has been steeper than in the previous upswing, which could indicate waning bullish momentum.

If the price action fails to break above 3355 and shows rejection at this resistance, a bearish correction could unfold from current levels. However, if XAUUSD manages to close convincingly above 3366, the bullish trend may be reignited, opening the door for further upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 3365

Target price: 3312

Stop loss: 3395

Validity: Jul 22, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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