EURJPY - Trendline Break: What's Next?

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Euro-Yen cross (EUR/JPY) has clawed back from six-week lows, stabilizing near 183.00 as the market's panic over a potential joint Federal Reserve-Bank of Japan intervention subsides.

SELL EURJPY

EXP

PENDING

182.550

Entry Price

179.000

185.000

183.092 -0.137 -0.07%

Pips

PENDING

179.000

Exit Price

182.550

Entry Price

185.000

A fragile calm has descended upon the Japanese Yen markets, but it’s the uneasy quiet of a storm that has merely shifted course, not dissipated. The Euro, trading just shy of the 183.00 handle against the Yen after a rebound from last week’s six-week trough near 182.00, embodies this tension. Its failed attempt to breach resistance around 183.65 earlier today tells the story: a market tentatively covering short-Yen positions but lacking the conviction to mount a full-scale reversal.

The immediate trigger for this pause in the Yen’s relentless slide is the fading specter of a coordinated central bank intervention. Last Friday’s revelation that both the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve were querying major banks for USD/JPY rate quotes sent a shockwave of pure, unadulterated fear through the speculative community. It was a classic "open mouth, open vault" operation—a direct and credible warning shot across the bows of carry traders that the 160.00 USD/JPY line is, indeed, a "line in the sand" for Tokyo and, critically, for Washington. The Yen exploded higher in response, a Pavlovian reaction to the memory of past, costly interventions.

Yet, by Tuesday, that conviction began to leach away. With USD/JPY retreating to the 156.00-157.00 zone and EUR/JPY failing to break down, the panic bid has evaporated. Traders are reasoning, for now, that the mere act of asking for prices achieved its goal: it bought time and instilled a measure of fear. The result is a Yen that is "trimming recent gains," as you note, but one that remains dramatically stronger than its 34-year lows of just days ago. The market is breathing, but it’s watching the exits.

However, to focus solely on intervention dynamics is to miss the profound undercurrent that has been re-awakened and now threatens to exert a more sustained gravitational pull on the currency: Japan’s fiscal sustainability. The catalyst here is unequivocally political. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decision to dissolve the lower house and call a snap election for February 8 was not met with applause in the bond and currency markets. It was met with a shudder.

Investors are decoding a clear and present risk: a strengthened electoral mandate for Takaichi translates directly into a turbocharging of her platform of "big spending and lower taxes." In any major economy, this combination amidst already record debt-to-GDP ratios would ring alarm bells. For Japan, where the Bank of Japan’s yield curve control has long blurred the lines between monetary and fiscal policy, it threatens to unravel a precarious equilibrium. The sell-off in the Yen across the board following the election announcement was a rational, if brutal, assessment of this risk. It’s a bet that Japan’s path may lead towards a fiscal stress that ultimately debases the currency, regardless of short-term rate differentials.

So, we arrive at the market’s current schizophrenic stance. On one shoulder sits the wary official, the BOJ’s stealthy rate checks, promising punitive action for excessive weakness. On the other whispers the fundamental analyst, charting a future of unchecked debt issuance and a potential loss of market confidence. This tug-of-war is producing the choppy, indecisive price action we see now.

Elsewhere, the European backdrop offers little directional impetus. A disappointing German IFO Business Climate reading on Monday served as a reminder of the Eurozone’s stagnant economic reality, capping the Euro’s rally potential. Later today, a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is anticipated to be a non-event for markets—a reiteration of the data-dependent, June-cut script that is now fully priced. The primary drama remains squarely in the Pacific.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EURJPY has experienced a notable shift in its near-term structure following a decisive break of the primary bullish trendline that supported the rally from the December 2025 lows. On the 4-hour chart, prices have rejected the former trendline, which now acts as new resistance near 183.500, and are consolidating in a lower range. This break has invalidated the immediate bullish impulse and suggests a period of correction or consolidation is underway.

The 182.500 level, marked by today's low of 182.522, now serves as immediate and critical support. A sustained break and close below this level would confirm the bearish momentum from the trendline break and likely trigger a deeper corrective move toward the next significant support zone between 181.000 and 181.500. This area represents a previous consolidation platform from late January and a key psychological level. A decisive breakdown beneath 181.000 would signal a more pronounced corrective phase, potentially exposing the 179.000 handle.

Momentum indicators reflect this transition. The failure to hold the trendline and the subsequent lower close indicate a shift from bullish momentum to a corrective phase. This price action suggests the market is digesting the prior strong gains and seeking a new equilibrium before the next significant directional move.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 182.550

STOP LOSS: 185.000

TAKE PROFIT: 179.000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Recently, gold has surged past the US$5,000 mark driven by multiple factors, further expanding its bullish outlook.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

PENDING

5025.00

Entry Price

5320.00

4940.00

5260.08 +81.50 +1.57%

Pips

PENDING

4940.00

Exit Price

5025.00

Entry Price

5320.00

Fundamentals

Recent market patterns indicate that gold prices are experiencing rapid appreciation amidst intensified global risk aversion and a weakening U.S. dollar, accompanied by increased trading volume. Although short-term profit-taking is evident, the bullish momentum remains dominant.

From a fundamental perspective, the current surge in gold prices is driven by multiple synergistic factors. First, heightened geopolitical tensions and geopolitical risks, along with trade policy uncertainties, have significantly heightened demand for safe-haven assets: recent international developments and trade disputes have prompted capital inflows into both physical and financial gold, directly boosting demand. Second, the weakening dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields have provided rate and currency support for bullion prices—declining nominal yields and dollar underperformance reduce opportunity costs for holding non-yielding gold, thereby attracting investor allocation. Additionally, continuous purchase activities by global central banks and institutional investors, together with robust inflows into ETFs and physical markets, form a structural demand foundation, enabling quick absorption of retracements and reinforcing market consensus on future upside potential.

Overall, the fundamental landscape features a "risk aversion + dollar softness + physical and central bank demand" triangle, constituting the core rationale for gold's ascent to historical highs.

Technical Analysis

Stay Bullish but Avoid Chasing Rallies; Wait for Pullbacks_1

In the 1D timeframe, as gold price breaks through Fibonacci extension levels 1.0 at 4,960 and 5,000 psychological thresholds, the bullish momentum toward Fibonacci extension 1.618 at 5,620 is effectively unlocked.

Yesterday, gold experienced a sharp decline after surpassing the 5,100 level, indicating significant selling pressure in the 5,100-5,110 range. If the price sustains an above-average trading volume and stabilizes above this range, it will confirm a bullish technical breakout, suggesting an ongoing upward trend. Conversely, a retracement from these highs may lead to testing the 4,960 support level.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 5070.00

Target Price: 5320.00

Stop Loss: 4970.00

Valid Until: February 10, 2026 23:00:00

Support: 4990.00, 4960.00

Resistance: 5110.00, 5350.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

Amid uncertainty over Fed policy and fears of a renewed U.S. government shutdown, USDCAD may face selling pressure with limited upside potential. The interest rate decisions by the Fed and the Bank of Canada (BoC) will be the key focus later on Wednesday.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.37372

Entry Price

1.35300

1.39300

1.35823 +0.00076 +0.06%

129.2

Pips

Profit

1.35300

1.36080

Exit Price

1.37372

Entry Price

1.39300

Fundamentals

Uncertainty surrounding Fed policy and concerns about a potential U.S. government shutdown are likely to exert selling pressure on USDCAD, capping its upside. The rate decisions from the Fed and the BoC

will take center stage later Wednesday. Markets widely expect the BoC to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25% at its January meeting, as inflation remains within the target range.

TD Bank analysts note that current economic data is insufficient to prompt the central bank to shift its policy stance. The underlying economy remains weak and faces significant uncertainties, despite easing inflationary pressures. Analysts point out that the BoC would only be forced to act if economic growth falls significantly short of expectations or the labor market deteriorates markedly. While the market consensus is for no rate adjustment this week, the prospect of further rate hikes has not been completely ruled out. Some institutions anticipate the BoC may raise rates again later this year, with a total hike of up to 50 bps.

It is also believed that the central bank will signal its future policy direction through its statement at this meeting, but the overall tone will remain balanced, without a clear dovish or hawkish tilt. Against the backdrop of persistently rising living costs and food price inflation nearly double the overall inflation rate, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that the federal government will provide more direct fiscal support to residents by increasing the existing GST rebate. The rebate will be renamed the Canada Food and Necessities Benefit, with a 25% increase starting in July this year for a five-year period, alongside a one-time additional payment equivalent to 50% of the annual benefit level.

The Fed is also expected to hold interest rates steady, though it faces distinct challenges, including U.S. President Donald Trump's attempts to undermine the central bank's independence and the uncertainty over who will succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when his term ends in May. Trump stated last week that he will soon announce his nominee for the next Fed Chair. Speculation over the successor is likely to weigh on the U.S. dollar, as markets expect the new Fed chief to lean toward accelerating the pace of rate cuts.

The U.S. government is facing the risk of a partial shutdown, as Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer vowed to oppose a funding bill that includes appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security. Congress must pass government funding by January 30, or a partial shutdown will occur, which could drag the USDCAD exchange rate lower.

On the other hand, Trump's renewed tariff threats may limit the Canadian dollar's upside. Trump threatened on Saturday to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada strikes a trade deal with China, sparking fears of a resurgence of trade tensions.

Technical Analysis

From a weekly perspective, USDCAD has broken below the Bollinger Middle Band once again, and the MACD line and signal line have formed a death cross near the zero axis, indicating the continuation of the bearish trend. If prices continue to trade below the Bollinger Middle Band, the pair is highly likely to drop to around the EMA200 at 1.364 and the previous low at 1.353. The RSI stands at 42, entering the bearish territory, with lower highs forming consecutively.

On the 15-minute timeframe, the Bollinger Bands have contracted and narrowed, MAs have flattened, and bullish momentum has weakened significantly. Prices faced strong resistance after rebounding to the EMA200, signaling the late stage of a corrective bounce. Immediate support levels are seen at the psychological level of 1.37 and the previous low around 1.367. The RSI is at 54, reflecting neutral market sentiment with investors on the sidelines.

Therefore, it is recommended to adopt a sell-on-rallies approach as the primary strategy.

Interest Rates Unchanged! USDCAD Extends Downtrend_1

Interest Rates Unchanged! USDCAD Extends Downtrend_2

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.376

Target Price: 1.353

Stop Loss: 1.393

Support: 1.36/1.357/1.35

Resistance Levels: 1.4/1.441/1.42

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading near the $88,000 area, showing hesitation to reclaim key upside levels above ~$90K amid ongoing consolidation and weaker risk appetite...

SELL BTC-USDT

EXP

TRADING

88200.0

Entry Price

85500.0

89700.0

89247.6 -2.4 0.00%

0.0

Pips

Flat

85500.0

Exit Price

88200.0

Entry Price

89700.0

Market Overview

Bitcoin’s price has been ranging around the $88,000–$89,000 area after a notable decline from its peak near $126,000 in late 2025. The market’s failure to sustain levels above ~$90K highlights resistance and a lack of clear bullish conviction. Macroeconomic uncertainties, including cautious investor positioning ahead of key central bank meetings, have contributed to Bitcoin’s consolidation and risk-off sentiment among traders. Cryptocurrencies like BTC continue to be treated more as risk assets rather than safe havens, which has pressured prices when broader financial markets exhibit volatility.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment in the short term is tilted toward caution and mild bearishness. With Bitcoin trading below resistance zones and lacking strong follow-through buying pressure, the market exhibits a wait-and-see attitude. Recent news suggests institutional flows have retreated while safe-haven assets like gold attract capital, underscoring risk aversion that weighs on BTC. This dynamic supports a short-term sell setup on strength rather than chasing potential breakouts that lack momentum.

Technical Analysis

On the M15 timeframe, the price remains below significant resistance clustered near the previous ~$90K threshold, failing to capitalize on intraday rallies. Recent technical summaries highlight a prevalence of sell signals and bearish moving average alignments across multiple timeframes, indicating downside bias. With Bitcoin’s RSI and MACD showing subdued momentum, there is a higher probability for pullbacks or continued range compression rather than immediate upside. This environment offers a favorable condition for short trades on signs of strength being rejected near local resistance.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 88200

Take Profit: 85500

Stop Loss: 89700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Commodity

Summary:

n 27/01/2026, gold (XAU/USD) remains elevated around 5070 after recent record highs above 5100, with the price action showing signs of exhaustion and bearish pressure dominating on M15...

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

5070.00

Entry Price

4985.00

5120.00

5260.08 +81.50 +1.57%

500.0

Pips

Loss

4985.00

5120.40

Exit Price

5070.00

Entry Price

5120.00

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) has been trading at extremely high levels following records above $5000/oz, pushed by sustained safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and macro uncertainties, and a weakened USD. Despite the broader bullish backdrop, the most recent short-term price behavior reveals that rallies near 5100–5105 have been met with resistance, keeping upside momentum in check on lower time frames (M15). This dynamic creates the potential for intraday corrective moves as traders lock in profits from elevated levels. Recent sentiment and technical signals on M15 indicate that unless XAU decisively holds above immediate resistance around 5105, the bias remains tilted toward selling strength rather than buying dips.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment in the near term shows buyers reaching a potential exhaustion phase after a dramatic rally caused by safe-haven inflows. Record pricing has stretched momentum, and some market participants are starting to look for pullbacks to secure gains. While gold’s long-term profile is bullish, short-term sentiment on M15 reflects bearish pressure dominating around the current price band, particularly as price fails to maintain breaks above the key 5105 resistance area. This subtle shift in intraday psychology supports sellers looking to capitalize on corrective reactions rather than continuation at these levels.

Technical Analysis

With XAU trading around the current price of 5070, resistance at approximately 5105 remains a critical level that has repelled recent upside attempts. On M15 timeframes, failure to sustain above this resistance suggests the potential for short-term swings lower. If this resistance continues to hold, it may trigger retracements toward the next support zones. Indicators such as short-term dynamic resistance levels and recent bearish pressure indicate that downward moves are more probable when rallies lose steam near the mentioned zone. Conversely, a break and hold above 5105 would invalidate the short bias and suggest a shift back toward buyers.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 5070

Take Profit: 4985

Stop Loss: 5120

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

USDCHF is trading around ~0.7770, continuing its recent downtrend on weakening US dollar sentiment and persistent Swiss franc strength amid safe-haven flows...

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.77750

Entry Price

0.77200

0.78150

0.76524 +0.00399 +0.52%

55.0

Pips

Profit

0.77200

Exit Price

0.77750

Entry Price

0.78150

Current Market Overview and Macro Drivers

USDCHF is currently around 0.7769–0.7776, showing a continuation of the broader decline after the U.S. dollar lost ground across major currencies and the Swiss franc held firm as a traditional safe-haven currency. Today’s session has seen price range between approx 0.7747–0.7776, reflecting the ongoing bearish context.

The Swiss franc’s resilience and subdued dollar sentiment are key macro drivers keeping sellers intact and preventing sustained rallies above nearby resistance. A mix of weaker U.S. economic cues and global risk considerations continues to lend support to CHF strength relative to the greenback.

Market Psychology

Short-term market psychology for USDCHF leans bearish as key resistance around the 0.7800–0.7820 zone has repeatedly capped upside attempts. Price holding below this area conveys that buyers lack conviction and that sellers are defending higher levels. The inability of USDCHF to sustain rallies and reclaim those upper bands suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment, with traders more inclined toward selling rallies than buying dips. The lower daily range also signals that sellers retain control, waiting for a break below immediate supports to accelerate the decline.

Technical Analysis

USDCHF Holds Bearish Bias Near 0.7770 as Dollar Weakness Persists_1

On the M15 timeframe, USDCHF is showing bearish structure with price evolving below recent intraday highs. Price action is forming lower highs and lower lows, testing immediate support levels close to the 0.7740–0.7750 area. Technical indicators reflect weakening momentum: Bollinger Bands show price hugging the lower band more often than not, hinting at prevailing downside pressure. Ichimoku on short intervals likely has price trading under the Tenkan and Kijun, indicating bearish bias. Stochastic (5,3,3) has room to fall further from neutral, supporting continuation if sellers maintain strength. With current trading near 0.7770, a decisive break below key intraday support could accelerate flows toward lower targets in the short run.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 0.7775

Take Profit: 0.7720

Stop Loss: 0.7815

This setup aims to capture continuation of the bearish trend from current levels. The entry is placed near recent intraday supply where sellers re-entered, take profit targets the next support cluster below the current range, and stop loss sits just above recent minor resistance to limit risk if price reverses. Monitor U.S. macro releases and any Swiss National Bank commentary as potential catalysts for volatility. (Investing.com)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

AUDJPY is trading around 106.66 after sliding within the day’s range 106.50–106.77, showing dip-buying but still close to intraday resistance....

BUY AUDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

106.699

Entry Price

107.200

106.440

106.876 +0.179 +0.17%

25.9

Pips

Loss

106.440

106.423

Exit Price

106.699

Entry Price

107.200

Overview

AUDJPY’s current tape is best described as “buy-the-dip but not yet breakout.” The spot print around 106.66 matters because it sits right at the edge of a tight intraday range (roughly 106.50–106.77). When a pair compresses like this after a multi-session swing (recent sessions included moves above 107 and back down), the next directional leg usually comes from who wins the 106.50 floor versus the 106.75–106.80 ceiling. Macro-wise, AUDJPY remains sensitive to risk tone: AUD tends to benefit when risk appetite is steady, while JPY often strengthens during sudden risk-off bursts. That’s why the “quality” of the rebound matters more than the rebound itself: if price can lift without heavy whipsaws, it usually signals carry demand returning rather than just short covering.

Market psychology

The key psychological tell today is that sellers have not been able to extend below 106.50 despite trading close to it, while buyers also haven’t proven they can defend above 106.70–106.80 for long.

That stalemate often creates a trap: late sellers press into support expecting a breakdown, then get squeezed if the pair reclaims the mid-zone; late buyers chase the first green candles, then get punished if price fades back into the range. In this kind of environment, a BUY idea only makes sense if it is anchored to structure: you want confirmation that the market is printing higher lows and rotating back above intraday “fair value,” rather than buying into the top of the box.

Technical analysis

On M15, the Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) are currently tight because price is consolidating; that matters because tight bands often precede expansion. The trade edge comes from aligning the expansion direction with structure: if candles begin to close above the mid-band while the upper band starts to curl upward, that is your first sign the market is shifting from balance to markup.

The Ichimoku (9,26,52) lens is similar: a clean reclaim of Tenkan and Kijun after a dip, followed by Kijun flattening or turning up, usually signals that the pullback has finished and the market is rebuilding a base. You also want to see price spending more time above the Kijun than below it; otherwise it’s still just chop. The Stochastic (5,3,3) should ideally reset (cool down) and then hook up again without staying pinned in oversold, this is the classic continuation rhythm in a range-to-breakout transition. As a reality check, broader technical dashboards show the pair near neutral on momentum but with mixed moving-average bias, which matches the idea that the market is deciding direction rather than already trending. With spot around 106.66, the actionable M15 thesis is: defend above the lower edge (106.50 area) and reclaim the mid/upper portion of the range (106.70–106.80) to open space for an upside push.