EURCAD’s upside into the 1.6200 area is losing traction

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The EURCAD cross is trading near 1.618–1.6200, with price failing to convincingly break above a cluster resistance zone around the psychological 1.6200 level...

SELL EURCAD

EXP

PENDING

1.62000

Entry Price

1.61400

1.62400

1.61712 +0.00018 +0.01%

Pips

PENDING

1.61400

Exit Price

1.62000

Entry Price

1.62400

Title: Sell EURCAD: M15 Rejection Near Upper Range at ~1.6200, Risk-On Tilt Supporting Loonie Strength

Overview

EURCAD today is hovering in a narrow range, with current rates around 1.6170–1.6200 and the daily range roughly between 1.6168 and 1.6199.

The pair has traded sideways as conflicting forces emerge: on one side, the Canadian dollar is finding support from rising crude oil prices and expectations of resilient economic data, which tends to strengthen commodity-linked currencies like CAD; on the other, the eurozone currency has lacked fresh catalysts to extend gains, anchored by consistent ECB messaging that policy remains steady without imminent tightening. Macro headlines show further risk-on tilt in broader markets, which historically weighs on EURCAD rallies because higher risk appetite tends to weaken the euro relative to the loonie. The technical backdrop reflects a failed breakout attempt above the 1.6200 barrier, where repeated tests without decisive follow-through signal short-term exhaustion and invite tactical short entries.

Market Sentiment

Short-term sentiment in EURCAD is balanced but biased toward distribution rather than aggressive accumulation as price edges up into resistance without buying conviction. Technical analysis summaries show mixed signals but a Sell bias on the M15 timeframe from short-term indicators and moving averages, suggesting sellers gain the upper hand in the near term.

If broader risk sentiment persists or CAD data surprises on the upside (e.g., stronger employment or resilient activity metrics), these fundamentals will further support downside pressure on the euro cross. Traders should interpret sentiment as nuanced: not overtly bearish at higher timeframes, but vulnerable intraday when price fails to sustain highs near resistance, creating an opportunity for mean reversion toward lower price levels.

Technical Analysis

EURCAD’s upside into the 1.6200 area is losing traction_1

On the M15 chart, price repeatedly approaches the upper Bollinger Band near 1.6200–1.6210 but lacks sharp breakout momentum; instead, wicks and rejections suggest sellers are defending this zone. A close back inside the upper band after testing it often preludes a pullback toward the mid-band, consistent with mean-reversion logic. The Ichimoku (IKH 9,26,52) cloud confirms that price is extended above short-term equilibrium levels without new bullish impulse structure, indicating thermal exhaustion rather than fresh trend extension.

The Stoch (5,3,3) oscillator shows overbought conditions with a potential bearish crossover if price continues rejecting near resistance; this cross is a classic early intraday sign that upside momentum is fading. Combined, these indicators suggest that EURCAD’s upside into the 1.6200 area is losing traction and that the path of least resistance on M15 is temporarily downward unless a strong catalyst re-energizes buyers.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 1.6200

Take Profit: 1.6140–1.6120

Stop Loss: 1.6240–1.6250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Economic

Summary:

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around $92,268 on the M15 timeframe with a range roughly between $90,700 and $92,750 as volatility compresses after a brief uptick toward resistance...

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

93100.0

Entry Price

90500.0

94000.0

95226.0 +1770.1 +1.89%

900.0

Pips

Loss

90500.0

94000.0

Exit Price

93100.0

Entry Price

94000.0

Overview

BTC remains in a tight intraday range between the psychological support around $90,000 and overhead resistance near $93,000, with price action showing muted volatility compared to the previous weeks, indicating participant hesitation between buyers and sellers. Recent CPI data prints roughly in line with forecast saw BTC briefly spike toward the session highs before weakness re-emerged, suggesting bulls are struggling to convert macro news into sustained breakout momentum.

The broader crypto market has seen mixed sentiment with regulation drafts (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) offering long-term narrative support while geopolitical tariff shocks and macro uncertainty are tempering aggressive positioning.

On macro fronts, U.S. inflation prints and Fed policy tensions add to the backdrop, increasing the probability of USD strength in the short run and pressuring risk assets including Bitcoin.

Market Sentiment

Short-term sentiment has moved toward short distribution / range fatigue rather than fresh accumulation. Traders are defending local support near $90K and booking profits above, while upside attempts above $93K have repeatedly stalled, reflecting a lack of conviction to push beyond the near-term supply zone. Despite some headlines about institutional accumulation (e.g., large BTC buys by Strategy), these moves are not yet translating into breakout follow-through on the M15 structure, underscoring defensive positioning by short-term traders. Macro catalysts such as inflation data, tariff news, and broader equities volatility are being priced in, boosting cautious sentiment and reducing directional conviction.

Technical Analysis

On M15, BTC is grinding against the upper end of the recent range, with Bollinger Bands relatively narrow but with shallow rejection around the upper band, suggesting buyers are losing momentum rather than expanding volatility upward. Price is close to the upper band without convincing breakout candles, and a close back inside the band after an extended stay above often triggers mean reversion entries.

The Ichimoku (IKH 9,26,52) structure is showing price extended above the short-term cloud with limited acceleration, indicating a lack of fresh buying impetus. The Stoch (5,3,3) indicator is rolling over from near-overbought levels, a classic early signal of fading bullish momentum on this timeframe. Together these technical signals imply higher odds of a pullback down toward the middle of the range rather than continuation upward without new catalyst confirmation.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 92,900–93,100

Take Profit: 90,500–89,800

Stop Loss: Above 94,000–94,300,

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

he XAUUSD gold market has recently hit historic highs above $4,600/oz before stabilizing slightly lower as traders book profits amid heightened geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty related to a criminal investigation into the US Federal Reserve Chair and tariff threats...

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

4630.00

Entry Price

4575.00

4665.00

4615.17 +29.07 +0.63%

Pips

EXPIRED

4575.00

4613.31

Exit Price

4630.00

Entry Price

4665.00

Overview

Today gold is trading near $4,585–4,600/oz, retreating from a fresh record high of roughly $4,629.94/oz seen in the previous session as investors partially booked profits after intense buying on safe-haven flows.

The broader macro backdrop remains dominated by geopolitical stress threats of tariffs on countries trading with Iran and other tensions which have historically underpinned gold’s surge.

However, unlike purely bullish environments, this rally has become headline-driven rather than structurally deeper, and macro data pending today (such as US CPI releases) adds event risk that could strengthen the USD and pressure gold.

While analysts continue to project higher medium-term targets, near-term price structure and profit-taking activity argue for short-term retracement pressure.

Market Sentiment

Investor psychology in gold is at an inflection point. Although broad sentiment remains bullish at the upper time frames because of persistent macro uncertainty and safe-haven buying, M15/short-term sentiment has shifted from aggressive accumulation to distribution. The drop from the all-time highs appears linked to traders locking gains, not full reversal of the trend, which is typical when a rally becomes stretched and macro catalysts temporarily lose novelty.

Despite bullish narratives from strategy desks forecasting continued upside, the short-term fear of data-driven volatility and a possible rebound in the US dollar due to solid CPI prints increases the probability of correction.

This disconnect bullish long bias but short-term exhaustion creates a precise window to SELL into strength on the M15 timeframe.

Technical Analysis

Gold leaps to record high as dollar drops on Fed chair probe news_1

On the M15 chart, Bollinger Bands show significant expansion as price pushed toward the upper extreme above 4630, which often precedes a mean-reversion pullback when buyers relent and price closes back inside the upper band. The Ichimoku (IKH) structure reveals that gold is far extended above both the Kijun and Senkou Span, indicating that the recent rally is technically overstretched and lacking fresh momentum to sustain new highs without corrective retracement.

The Stoch (5,3,3) is in the overbought region with a bearish crossover starting to form, which historically on M15 signals a high-probability pullback phase in intraday gold action. Together, these indicators suggest short-term downside movement as momentum weakens, price fails to sustain higher highs after reaching the psychological and technical zone around 4630.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 4630

Take profit: 4590–4575

Stop Loss: 4665

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

USDJPY pushed into the high-158s as the yen stayed under pressure from Japan’s election/fiscal-stimulus speculation and a sharp jump in JGB yields, while traders also positioned around near-term US macro event risk...

SELL USDJPY

EXP

PENDING

158.850

Entry Price

158.200

159.200

159.375 +0.217 +0.14%

Pips

PENDING

158.200

Exit Price

158.850

Entry Price

159.200

Overview

USDJPY is trading around the upper-158 area today, with the day’s range showing an open near 158.09, a high near 158.91 and a low near 157.88 (latest daily snapshot).

The macro mix is unusual because Japan is generating its own yield shock: Reuters reports Japan’s equity rally and snap-election chatter have weakened the yen and driven long-end JGB yields to multi-decade highs, with the 10-year yield around 2.15–2.17%.

That matters for USDJPY in two opposing ways that traders often miss: higher JGB yields can slow capital outflows (a yen-supportive channel), but when the move is interpreted as “more fiscal stimulus / looser stance for longer,” it can still net out as yen-negative via risk-on and carry behavior. In parallel, US rates remain elevated (10Y around the low-4% area recently), keeping the rate differential structurally supportive for USDJPY, but the key is whether today’s incremental information changes expectations at the margin rather than the level itself.

Market sentiment

Risk appetite looks positive in Asia (Nikkei at record highs per Reuters), which typically encourages short-yen positioning, yet the more important sentiment variable for this specific setup is “crowding plus policy risk.”

Volatility in US equities is not screaming panic (VIX around 16 on Jan 12), so this isn’t a classic flight-to-safety yen bid environment. The real sentiment tell is that yen weakness is becoming headline-level and politically sensitive; when a currency move becomes a domestic political topic, the distribution of outcomes changes because verbal intervention, liquidity shocks, and sudden position squaring become more likely than normal. That asymmetry is why a short-term mean-reversion SELL can be higher quality than chasing the trend at stretched intraday levels, even if the broader story still leans USDJPY-bullish.

Technical analysis

On the M15 timeframe, the trade idea is not “the trend is dead,” it’s “price is temporarily paying too much for the trend.” After the spike into the high-158s, the Bollinger Bands typically widen, and the highest-probability entry is when price stops riding the upper band and prints a decisive M15 close back inside the band, signaling volatility exhaustion rather than trend continuation.

With Ichimoku (9,26,52), the clue is usually the distance between price and the fast lines: when price is extended above the cloud and the Tenkan-Kijun gap balloons, continuation requires fresh impulse; without it, the market often snaps back toward Tenkan/Kijun as “fair value” on intraday horizons. Stoch (5,3,3) complements this by identifying the timing: you want to see Stoch roll over from overbought and cross down while price fails to make meaningful new highs, which is a classic micro-divergence that often precedes a 30–90 minute pullback rather than a full reversal.

In plain terms: don’t sell strength just because it’s strong; sell only when the M15 structure shows buyers are no longer being rewarded for paying higher.

Trade recommendation

Entry: 158.70–158.85

Take Profit: 158.20

Stop Loss: 159.20

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

GBP/JPY trades near 17-year highs as Japan’s political uncertainty and rising bond yields deepen Yen weakness, while bullish technical signals point to further upside toward 214.90.

BUY GBPJPY

EXP

TRADING

214.001

Entry Price

214.900

213.500

213.921 +0.324 +0.15%

0.0

Pips

Flat

213.500

Exit Price

214.001

Entry Price

214.900

The British Pound strengthened further against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, extending a powerful rally that has carried the GBP/JPY exchange rate to levels last seen during the global financial crisis era of 2008. At the time of writing, the pair was trading near 213.82, up roughly 0.40% on the session, underscoring a widening divergence between a resilient Pound and a Yen increasingly weighed down by political and fiscal uncertainty in Japan.

The move has been driven primarily by renewed, broad-based weakness in the Japanese currency following reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering dissolving the lower house of parliament and calling a snap general election as early as February. The prospect of an early vote has unsettled investors, reviving concerns over fiscal discipline and heightening expectations of pre-election spending measures at a time when Japan already carries one of the largest public debt burdens in the developed world.

Markets have responded swiftly to the political headlines. Expectations of looser fiscal policy and heavier government borrowing have pushed Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields sharply higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing to around 2.166%, its highest level in 27 years. The surge in yields reflects growing unease over Japan’s debt sustainability and the potential strain on public finances should political instability translate into aggressive stimulus.

This dynamic is further complicating the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy outlook. While the central bank has been attempting to carefully normalize policy after years of ultra-loose monetary conditions, rising political risk and fiscal uncertainty may force policymakers to proceed more cautiously. Higher yields driven by fiscal fears rather than economic strength are unlikely to provide meaningful support to the Yen, particularly if the BoJ delays further rate hikes to avoid destabilizing financial markets.

In the foreign exchange space, the result has been another wave of Yen selling across the board. USD/JPY remains near one-and-a-half-year highs, while the Yen has slid to fresh all-time lows against both the Euro and the Swiss Franc. The speed and breadth of the move have once again revived speculation around potential currency intervention, even as Japanese officials continue to issue verbal warnings against excessive and disorderly FX movements. However, with yield differentials still moving against Japan and political risk rising, traders appear reluctant to fade the trend.

Japan’s economic calendar offers little in the way of near-term relief. With data releases thin, market attention remains firmly fixed on political developments and capital flows. The next focal point will be Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI), though its impact may be limited unless it materially alters inflation expectations.

On the UK side, domestic data has been mixed but has done little to derail Sterling’s momentum. Retail Sales growth slowed toward the end of 2025, according to figures from the British Retail Consortium, which showed like-for-like sales rising 1.0% year-on-year in December—the weakest pace in seven months. While the reading exceeded market expectations of a 0.6% increase, it marked a modest slowdown from November’s 1.2% gain, reinforcing the view that consumer demand remains under pressure from high interest rates and cost-of-living challenges.

Looking ahead, investor focus will shift to a heavy slate of UK economic data on Thursday, with monthly GDP figures taking center stage. Stronger-than-expected growth could reinforce expectations that the UK economy is weathering restrictive monetary conditions better than feared, offering further support to the Pound—particularly against low-yielding currencies such as the Yen.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY continues to exhibit strong bullish characteristics. The pair staged an aggressive rally during the European session, maintaining stability within an ascending bullish channel and establishing firm support near the 212.75 level. This area now acts as a key technical floor following the pair’s successful break above prior resistance zones.

Momentum indicators remain supportive of further upside, reflecting sustained buying pressure and trend continuation signals. Notably, the pair has cleared the 2.00% Fibonacci extension level at 214.15, a development that opens the door toward the next major upside target near 214.90, which coincides with the upper boundary of the bullish channel.

As long as prices remain above the 212.70 support zone, the broader technical outlook remains constructive. Any short-term pullbacks are likely to be viewed as corrective rather than trend-reversing, particularly amid ongoing fundamental weakness in the Yen.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 214.00

STOP LOSS: 213.50

TAKE PROFIT: 214.90

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

The USDJPY continued to strengthen in Tuesday trading, hovering near its highest level since July 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae may soon call an early election, leveraging her high approval ratings, which has boosted market expectations for further expansionary fiscal policies. (Negative for the yen)

SELL USDJPY

EXP

PENDING

160.200

Entry Price

153.910

162.500

159.375 +0.217 +0.14%

Pips

PENDING

153.910

Exit Price

160.200

Entry Price

162.500

Fundamentals

The USDJPY rose again on Tuesday, climbing to 159.00, propelled by the yen's accelerating depreciation. The yen's continued weakening has become a focal point for the market, reflecting both Japan's unique political risks and broader institutional unease centered on the U.S.

The yen's decline stemmed from widespread reports that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae plans to dissolve the House of Representatives when the regular Diet session opens on January 23, paving the way for an early general election. Reports indicate this decision has been communicated to senior members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Since taking office nearly three months ago, the Takaichi Sanae Cabinet has maintained consistently high approval ratings. The market views this as a calculated gamble to stabilize its fragile governing position. With the ruling coalition holding only a slim majority in the House of Representatives, the momentum to seek re-election has intensified while political conditions remain favorable.

If the House of Representatives is dissolved on January 23, the official campaign period could begin as early as January 27 or February 3, with voting expected to take place on February 8 or February 15. Holding the election early would enable Takaichi Sanae to implement her expansive fiscal spending plan.

Beyond domestic economic matters, re-election would also bolster Takaichi Sanae's influence in foreign policy. Her recent remarks in the Diet regarding Japan's potential response to the Taiwan situation have further strained Sino-Japanese relations, and winning the election would give her greater confidence to tackle diplomatic challenges.

Meanwhile, as market confidence in the U.S. dollar waned, safe-haven demand also bolstered the yen. The Trump administration's threat to pursue criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sparked concerns about the enduring credibility of U.S. institutions, prompting some defensive capital flows into the yen and adding a layer of caution to the market.

Yen's Vulnerability Reactivated Amid Japan's Political Maneuvering_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the USDJPY has staged a strong rebound this week, breaking above 159.00 with an upward bias in intraday trading. A sustained move above this level could test the 200% Fibonacci retracement at 161.95, which corresponds to the July 3, 2024 high within the 145.47-150.90 range.

Before the market tests this peak, a significant pullback will occur at point D. Exercise caution when chasing highs, and focus on swing trading. Overall, as long as the support level at 152.82 holds, the outlook remains bullish even if a pullback occurs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 160.20

Target Price: 153.91

Stop Loss: 162.50

Valid Until: February 10, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 158.18, 156.10, 154.33

Resistance: 160.21, 160.50, 161.95

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Gold has extended its rally on U.S. domestic political developments, slicing through USD 4,600 and clearing the way for a measured technical extension higher.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4595.39

Entry Price

4720.00

4510.00

4615.17 +29.07 +0.63%

0.0

Pips

Flat

4510.00

Exit Price

4595.39

Entry Price

4720.00

Fundamentals

The immediate catalyst is a sudden market reassessment of Fed independence—news that the U.S. Department of Justice has opened an investigation into the Fed Chair triggered fears of monetary-policy politicization, broad-based dollar weakness and a flight-to-quality bid in bullion. Sell-side desks and proprietary-trading books now price in a higher systemic-risk premium. Political/institutional shocks of this magnitude typically generate an acute spike in precious-metal demand.

ETF flows remain supportive: holdings and net creations have stayed at cycle highs since end-2025, converting a headline-driven spike into a more durable uptrend should inflows persist.

Macro tailwinds reinforce the narrative. Falling real U.S. Treasury yields and a declining DXY reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, lifting both physical uptake and derivatives positioning. Concurrently, risk-off asset allocation has pushed hedge funds and family offices to raise their strategic weight to metals, amplifying short-term buy-flow intensity.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop is a bullish convergence of "event-driven catalyst + supportive liquidity".

Technical Analysis

Upside Breakout Opens, Gold Targets 4728_1

On the daily chart the prevailing structure is a strong, well-sequenced uptrend. The moving-average stack remains bullishly aligned (MAs in perfect ascending order), underscoring trend persistence.

Monday's close above the 4,550 resistance invalidates the prior range and opens the 0.786 Fibonacci extension at 4,728.50 as the next upside objective.

Traders are recommended to use the 1-hour and 4-hour MA10/MA20 as dynamic support, and to adopt a buy-the-dip stance with a bullish bias.