EUR/CAD edges higher above 1.6240 as ECB holds and oil weighs on CAD

Forex

Summary:

The EUR/CAD pair strengthened toward ~1.6240–1.6250 as the European Central Bank (ECB) reaffirmed a cautious policy stance and the Canadian dollar (CAD) came under pressure due to softer oil prices

BUY EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.62603

Entry Price

1.63250

1.61800

1.61189 +0.00326 +0.20%

64.7

Pips

Profit

1.61800

1.63252

Exit Price

1.62603

Entry Price

1.63250

Overview

EUR/CAD climbed as oil prices (which strongly influence CAD via Canada’s energy export exposure) traded near the low‑$60s, reducing CAD strength. Meanwhile, the ECB signalled that current policy remains appropriate unless inflation deviates from target, which supports the euro’s relative positioning. According to ECB reference data, EUR/CAD printed 1.6226 on 21 Nov, up from earlier levels.

Technical measures from Investing show the pair is in a strong‑buy zone, with moving averages aligning positively. In this context the setup is favourable for a buy on EUR/CAD, provided oil doesn’t sharply rebound (which would favour CAD) or the ECB unexpectedly becomes more dovish.

Market sentiment

Sentiment is tilted toward the euro vs CAD. The euro benefits from a steady policy outlook and the impression of being the “safe alternative” among commodity‑linked currencies, while the CAD is weighed by weaker oil and lack of fresh supportive domestic data. Analysts note a bullish skew for EUR/CAD, with technical studies signaling strong buy across multiple timeframes. One caveat: some commentary warns of a slowing euro‑trend against the backdrop of broader USD strength and political risks.

Technical analysis

EUR/CAD edges higher above 1.6240 as ECB holds and oil weighs on CAD_1

On the M15 chart, price is riding above the Bollinger mid‑line and reacting positively on dips toward the 20‑period mean. That structure suggests favorable conditions for buying on retracements. The Ichimoku cloud (Kumo) is below or near current price, offering dynamic support in the ~1.6215–1.6230 region. A clean %K cross above %D in the Stochastic from the 40–50 band on a dip would confirm momentum readiness.Given this alignment, the entry zone is defined near the recent support cluster, the target is aligned with recent highs/resistance, and stop‑loss is placed beneath the cloud support.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 1.6260

TP: 1.6325

SL: 1.6180

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Gerik

Commodity

Summary:

XAU/USD is holding steady around $4,100 as the U.S. Dollar Index fluctuates around 99.5 and equity volatility remains contained...

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4090.04

Entry Price

4140.00

4060.00

4212.43 +14.52 +0.35%

499.6

Pips

Profit

4060.00

4140.08

Exit Price

4090.04

Entry Price

4140.00

Overview

Gold is stabilizing after a period of consolidation, with recent trading volumes and real-time feeds showing XAU/USD holding the $4,080–$4,120 range. The U.S. Dollar Index is testing the 99.5–99.7 range, with little directional conviction after the Fed’s October 29 cut to 3.75–4.00%. The easing of the Fed's monetary policy is still being digested, and while gold has been trading steadily within the range, there are no new shocks coming from the macro environment. Risk sentiment is neutral, and with VIX in the high-teens, gold is maintaining its strength, supported by stable demand for safe-haven assets. The current technical picture suggests buying dips is favorable, especially with the dollar still hovering beneath the 100 threshold.

Market sentiment

Positioning is balanced, with market participants cautiously eyeing any shifts in U.S. data or Fed guidance while tracking the DXY’s movements. The broader market is not showing signs of panic, and with volatility relatively low, gold tends to be favored on any dips, as long as DXY fails to gain momentum above 100. The market sentiment around gold remains supported by geopolitical risks and the ongoing structural challenges in the global economy, though the absence of new catalysts keeps price action in a range-bound mode. The dollar’s current hold under 100 gives the edge to gold bulls in the short term.

Technical analysis

Gold steadies near $4,100 as DXY dips and risk sentiment holds steady_1

Price is oscillating around the Bollinger mid-line after recent dips to the lower band near $4,080, with the 20-period mean providing support. This pattern is typically seen in continuation phases, and as long as price holds above this level, the next target for upside is the upper Bollinger band at $4,140. On Ichimoku, gold is rotating above the cloud, with Tenkan above Kijun on rebounds, indicating bullish sentiment. The cloud top around $4,090–$4,100 continues to act as a dynamic support zone. Stochastic (5/3/3) is turning up from mid-range, signaling that momentum is building, and a %K cross above %D from the 40–50 zone on a minor pullback should signal further upside movement. With the technical indicators aligning with a buy-the-dip bias, the path of least resistance remains upward. Recent references from real-time dashboards show XAU/USD hovering near $4,100, consistent with the current market tone.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 4,090

TP: 4,140

SL: 4,060

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Australian Dollar slumped on Monday, pressured by renewed geopolitical tensions in Asia and a stronger U.S. Dollar backdrop, with markets weighing hawkish RBA signals against rising global uncertainty.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64500

Entry Price

0.63500

0.65000

0.66391 +0.00008 +0.01%

50.0

Pips

Loss

0.63500

0.65002

Exit Price

0.64500

Entry Price

0.65000

The Australian Dollar struggled to capitalize on the generally upbeat market sentiment on Monday, with the currency slipping back toward multi-month lows as geopolitical risks overshadowed last week’s encouraging domestic economic indicators. The AUD/USD pair retreated to session lows near 0.6440 during European morning trading, reversing the modest gains logged in Asia after touching highs around 0.6465. The weakness leaves the currency uncomfortably close to the three-month trough at 0.6429 set on Friday, underscoring how fragile sentiment remains around the Aussie.

The currency’s underperformance was particularly notable given that broader risk appetite was improving across global markets. Instead of benefiting from the softer U.S. Dollar tone or buoyant equity markets, the Australian Dollar found itself among the weakest performers of the day. Traders pointed to escalating diplomatic friction between Japan and China—Australia’s two largest trading partners—as the primary catalyst for the downward pressure. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned earlier on Monday that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had “crossed a red line” after suggesting Japan would respond militarily if Beijing moved against Taiwan. The sharp exchange injected fresh uncertainty into an already tense regional environment, prompting markets to tilt away from risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD.

The flare-up comes at a delicate time for Australia, where recent economic data had been painting a cautiously optimistic picture. Last week’s preliminary PMI readings showed that manufacturing activity rebounded into expansion territory in November after contracting in October, while the services sector accelerated for a second straight month. The improving momentum reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain a hawkish bias in its upcoming policy meetings, especially with inflation still running above target. Under normal circumstances, such data would provide at least some durability to the Australian Dollar, but the geopolitical overhang has effectively neutralized the domestic tailwinds.

Meanwhile in the United States, the Dollar’s dynamics remain complicated. The stronger-than-expected S&P Global PMI readings and an improvement in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index initially bolstered the greenback late last week. However, those gains were short-lived. Dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams—who also serves as vice chair of the FOMC—weighed on the Dollar as markets recalibrated their rate-cut expectations. Williams suggested that the Federal Reserve has “ample room” to lower interest rates without jeopardizing progress on inflation, a comment that triggered a notable shift in rate-pricing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December surged to 75% from roughly 45% earlier in the week, sending the Dollar broadly lower against its major peers.

Technical Analysis

Despite this softer USD backdrop, the Australian Dollar has been unable to meaningfully recover. From a technical perspective, the pair continues to respect the long-term descending trendline that has guided price action for several months. After failing to break above that resistance last week, AUD/USD formed a fresh lower high—an important structural signal that the broader downtrend remains intact. The latest rejection from the trendline, coupled with the completion of a bearish pullback, indicates that sellers still control momentum. A clear imbalance remains open beneath current prices, suggesting that the path of least resistance may continue to point downward unless a catalyst emerges to shift sentiment.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6450

STOP LOSS: 0.6500

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6350

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The US Dollar staged a partial rebound on Monday as USD/JPY climbed toward 155.85, supported by risk appetite and renewed pressure on the Yen amid Japan’s aggressive fiscal stimulus.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

157.000

Entry Price

159.000

155.000

155.228 -0.117 -0.08%

200.0

Pips

Loss

155.000

Exit Price

157.000

Entry Price

159.000

The US Dollar clawed back some of Friday’s losses on Monday, with USD/JPY trading near 155.85 at the European midday session after briefly touching a low near 156.20 at the end of last week. The recovery reflects a cautiously positive risk environment and persistent pressure on the Japanese Yen, which has weakened roughly 7% since early October amid rising concerns about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansive fiscal agenda.

Fresh anxiety was triggered on Friday after Japan’s cabinet approved a massive ¥21 trillion (USD 135 billion) stimulus package — a scale of spending that reignited doubts about Tokyo’s already heavily indebted public finances. The news deepened structural bearishness toward the Yen, underscoring the challenge policymakers face as they attempt to balance growth support with fiscal sustainability.

Yet the Dollar’s ascent was cut short late Friday after Finance Minister Yoko Takayama delivered the clearest intervention warning of the year, arguing that “excessive volatility” and “speculative moves” in the currency market will not be tolerated. Her message followed months of verbal pressure and pushed markets to reassess the probability of direct FX intervention.

Investor attention has now shifted squarely onto the Bank of Japan, which may be preparing for potential action to stem further Yen depreciation. Historically, Japanese authorities have favored intervening during periods of thin market liquidity to maximize potential impact. The upcoming US Thanksgiving holiday, which typically dampens trading volumes, provides precisely such an environment.

Many traders remain cautious, continuing to sell the Yen but acknowledging the rising probability of a surprise intervention. The BoJ faces a delicate calculus: tolerate further Yen weakness to support inflation momentum or step in to prevent destabilizing FX dynamics that risk undermining consumer confidence.

On the US side, the Dollar remains somewhat restrained as shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy continue to cap upside momentum. Market sentiment brightened after New York Fed President John Williams signaled that the central bank retains “room to ease” without jeopardizing progress on inflation — a comment that markets interpreted as an endorsement of additional cuts.

His remarks boosted bets for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, pressuring the Dollar on Friday. While these expectations haven’t derailed Monday’s modest rebound, they continue to provide a counterweight against more aggressive USD/JPY gains.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has resumed its intraday recovery following a corrective downturn late last week. The pair is attempting to secure a higher swing low, a structure that often supports renewed bullish momentum.

Price action remains firmly above the EMA50, serving as dynamic support and aligning with the prevailing short-term uptrend. Momentum indicators, particularly relative strength oscillators, are beginning to highlight positive divergence after dipping into oversold territory on Friday. This typically signals fading bearish pressure and the potential for a fresh upside impulse.

Should USD/JPY hold above its intraday support zone, a bullish rejection from current levels could propel the pair toward the 159.50 resistance target — a level that aligns with prior rejection zones and psychological thresholds for potential BoJ intervention.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 157.00

STOP LOSS: 155.00

TAKE PROFIT: 159.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Silver holds modest gains near $50 as a softer US Dollar, shifting Fed expectations and geopolitical tensions provide support, but traders remain cautious ahead of key US economic data that could spark fresh volatility.

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

50.300

Entry Price

52.000

48.500

58.367 +0.050 +0.09%

108.9

Pips

Profit

48.500

51.389

Exit Price

50.300

Entry Price

52.000

Silver (XAG/USD) began the week on a firmer but cautious note, trading around the symbolic $50.00 mark on Monday after rising roughly 0.20%. The move reflects a broader improvement in sentiment across precious metals, with the white metal benefiting from the same macro undercurrents that recently boosted gold — namely a weakening US Dollar and fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve policy heading into December.

The Dollar’s pressure came following a week of mixed commentary from Federal Reserve officials, who sent conflicting signals on whether policymakers are ready to deliver another rate cut before year-end. This inconsistency prompted traders to trim long-dollar positions, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as silver. Throughout the fourth quarter, silver has been acutely sensitive to even slight changes in interest-rate expectations, and the latest repricing has once again tilted the market cautiously in its favor.

Yet despite the early-week uptick, investors appear unwilling to commit to a decisive move in either direction. Volumes remain subdued as traders look ahead to two major US economic releases: the revised third-quarter US Gross Domestic Product report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Both indicators are due later this week and have the potential to significantly influence the Fed’s policy trajectory. With precious metals having traded in a relatively tight range over the past several sessions, market participants prefer to wait for these catalysts before establishing larger directional positions.

Geopolitics continues to play an important supporting role. The prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict and the resurfacing of tensions in the Middle East have sustained demand for safe-haven assets. While gold remains the primary refuge for geopolitical hedging, silver has increasingly shared in the flows, especially as investors look for alternatives with industrial upside. These global uncertainties have helped insulate silver against broader risk-off pullbacks and maintained its appeal in multi-asset portfolios.

The combination of a softer US Dollar, shifting monetary-policy expectations and elevated geopolitical risks provides a supportive backdrop for silver as the week begins. However, the metal’s recent price consolidation underscores a prevailing reluctance to chase prices higher ahead of potentially market-moving data. Should GDP or PCE readings deviate meaningfully from expectations, volatility could return swiftly, particularly given silver’s tendency to magnify moves compared with gold.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, silver’s intraday rebound brought it back toward the key $50.25 resistance area, a level that has repeatedly acted as a near-term ceiling. Despite this retest, the broader technical picture remains fragile. Prices continue to trade below the 50-day exponential moving average, indicating lingering downward pressure, while momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index have begun flashing overlapping negative signals after recently reaching overbought territory. This combination suggests that while buyers remain active, momentum is tentative and vulnerable to shifts in sentiment.

The break of a minor short-term bullish trendline last week adds to that caution, highlighting a softening in upward momentum even as the metal probes resistance once again. If silver manages to push above $50.33, the next notable area of interest lies around $51.08, a psychologically important level that has functioned as structural resistance in the past. A more extended advance would likely confront significant selling interest near $52.14, a historically meaningful level on longer-term charts that has previously capped bullish extensions. Conversely, a failure to hold above the $50.00 threshold could expose silver to renewed downside pressures, especially if US economic data reinforces the Dollar or dampens expectations for a near-term rate cut.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 50.30

STOP LOSS: 48.50

TAKE PROFIT: 52.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

The market is beginning to treat gold as a hedge against a Fed "policy misstep." While prices have pulled back, fundamentals remain solid and cyclical demand for gold has yet to peak.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4070.94

Entry Price

4346.00

4038.00

4212.43 +14.52 +0.35%

1318.3

Pips

Profit

4038.00

4202.77

Exit Price

4070.94

Entry Price

4346.00

Fundamentals

September U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Fed's bias toward delaying rate cuts. Yet a central question now confronts markets: how can the FOMC ensure policy correctness when key data are still missing? Consequently, although a high-rate regime should be bearish for gold, there is growing evidence that the market is beginning to treat bullion as a hedge against "policy error." Should the Fed stand pat in December and subsequent releases prove that skipping a cut was a mistake, dollar confidence could quickly erode. Gold, by contrast, would emerge as the more reliable safe haven. For now, this remains a secondary narrative, but it can still provide a structural bid for the gold, reflecting waning conviction that the Fed can steer the economy accurately under incomplete information.

Demand Dynamics: Unlike the past three years, the current precious-metals rally is primarily driven by cyclical gold demand. Looking into 2026, both cyclical demand and structural tailwinds are expected to keep gold and silver prices on an upward trend. In our base-case scenario, gold reaches $4,500 oz in 2026, implying further upside from current levels.

We contend that cyclical investment demand for precious metals has yet to peak, as U.S. monetary policy is poised to pivot toward easing in the near term, while the risk of a de-anchoring of long-run inflation expectations is likely to persist. Meanwhile, under the emerging macro regime, the unique portfolio-hedge value of physical gold and silver's status as a strategic critical mineral will become increasingly salient, providing structural support from official-sector accumulation, private bar-and-coin uptake, and regional inventory stockpiling.

Demand Yet to Peak, Longs May Stage a Comeback_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold prices successfully held the upward trend line that has been in place since late October. This support level is currently located near $4,030, coinciding with the MA200 on the 4-hour chart. Structurally, gold is forming an early inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, suggesting a continuation of the upward move.

The supply zone at $4,080 now acts as the immediate resistance for bulls aiming to break through the $4,100 threshold. If gold can sustain a breakout and establish a foothold above this level, it is likely to advance further toward the next major resistance zone between $4,123 - $4,142. This upward momentum could extend, potentially driving prices higher to test the previous selloff level at $4,344.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4063

Target Price: 4346

Stop Loss: 4038

Valid Until: December 10, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 4061/4039/4021

Resistance Levels: 4083/4091/4101

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

The EU's downward revision of 2026 euro-area GDP growth adds fundamental weight to the single currency. Meanwhile, a completed Head-and-Shoulders top on the hourly chart reinforces near-term bearish momentum.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.15282

Entry Price

1.12500

1.16600

1.16599 +0.00173 +0.15%

131.8

Pips

Loss

1.12500

1.16600

Exit Price

1.15282

Entry Price

1.16600

Fundamentals

Euro area flash CPI eased to 2.1% YoY in October, a whisker below September's print but still hugging the ECB's 2% target. Core inflation and services prices remain sticky, signalling that domestic price pressures have not yet dissipated. Eurostat and the major wire services characterise the modest deceleration as giving the Governing Council extra "breathing room" and a wider observation window: the ECB can stay on hold—i.e., refrain from an additional rate cut or overt dovish pivot—until it sees convincing evidence that inflation is durably converging to target.

Recent Executive Board remarks underline a data-dependent, "patient but prudent" stance: future easing is neither pre-committed nor ruled out, and the ECB will not over-react to short-term volatility. This posture removes an immediate bullish catalyst for the euro.

At the same time, the European Commission trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast for the currency bloc to 1.2% (from 1.4%), citing weaker external demand, rising trade frictions and the budgetary cost of geopolitical spending as key drags on medium-term growth. In short, while the near-term disinflation narrative keeps the door open for eventual policy accommodation, the growth downgrade and lingering tail-risks cap the euro's structural upside momentum.

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, EURUSD has completed a head-and-shoulders top with the neckline at 1.1580 clearly violated, giving the bears fresh impetus.

The pair remains capped below the SMA60, while both the SMA10 and SMA20 have crossed below the SMA144, generating a textbook death-cross and keeping sentiment tilted to the downside.

First support on the radar is 1.1468. A decisive break would open the door to 1.1200.