EUR/CAD at 1.600 – dip-buy opportunity ahead of 1.610 on M15?

Gerik

Forex

Summary:

EUR/CAD trades around 1.6017, supported by U.S. dollar weakness and Euro strength from resilient EU fundamentals...

BUY EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.60145

Entry Price

1.60750

1.59700

1.61650 +0.00031 +0.02%

24.3

Pips

Profit

1.59700

1.60388

Exit Price

1.60145

Entry Price

1.60750

Market Overview

The euro continues rising amid a weakening U.S. dollar; EUR/USD hovers near four-year highs, boosting EUR/CAD. ECB indicators show stabilizing inflation around 2%, prompting a pause in further rate cuts and reinforcing EUR macro support. On the flip side, CAD is pressured by weaker oil prices, persistent trade tensions with the U.S., and potential BoC rate cuts analysts indicate a high probability for a July cut.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment favors the euro: EUR/CAD has rebounded from 1.5950 support, and forecasts from CoinCodex show July sentiment as bullish, with average forecasts around 1.615. OANDA lists EUR/CAD among top pairs to watch in July, citing commodity divergence oil hurting CAD, EU stability strengthening EUR.

Technical Analysis

EUR/CAD at 1.600 – dip-buy opportunity ahead of 1.610 on M15?_1

Support/Resistance: Key support lies at 1.5950–1.5990 (double bottom), while resistance clusters appear near 1.6100 and the 2018 highs around 1.6150.

Momentum: Daily and weekly momentum remains bullish; EUR/CAD bullish waves suggest targets near 1.6100 .

Indicators: On M15, Bollinger narrowing after the pullback signals a potential bounce. Ichimoku likely shows price above Tenkan/Kijun, trading above cloud base in short term. Stochastic (5,3,3) is rebounding from oversold classic dip-buy condition.

Trade Plan

Entry (Buy): 1.6000–1.6015 zone, ideally upon an M5/M15 bullish candle or Stoch showing upward crossover from <20.

Take Profit: 1.6075–1.6100, aligned with upper Bollinger band and proximity to key resistance.

Stop Loss: Around 1.5970 (just below the recent bottom and lower Bollinger line), managing risk for breakout failure.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

AD/CHF hovers near 0.5843. The pair remains entrenched in a multi-week downtrend, driven by Swiss franc strength (SNB rate cuts, safe-haven flows) and weakness in the Canadian dollar from oil pressures and trade uncertainty....

SELL CADCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.58300

Entry Price

0.58000

0.58600

0.57782 +0.00029 +0.05%

3.0

Pips

Profit

0.58000

0.58270

Exit Price

0.58300

Entry Price

0.58600

Market Overview

CAD/CHF is trading around 0.5843, roughly flat on the day. The Swiss franc continues its upward pressure following the SNB’s move to a zero policy rate on June 19 its sixth cut since March 2024 which solidified franc strength amid deflationary concerns and global risk aversion. Simultaneously, CAD suffers from soft oil prices and fragile risk sentiment as trade uncertainties affect Canada’s export outlook.

Market Sentiment

Broad-market bias remains bearish. Swiss franc’s safe-haven demand persists alongside SNB readiness to intervene in forex markets, reinforcing CHF strength. On the Canadian side, weak oil and trade jitters suppress CAD. Traders are positioning for further CHF gains, awaiting a fresh push lower.

Technical Analysis

CAD/CHF retests 0.5840 resistance — SELL setup valid amid steady downtrend_1

Trend: CAD/CHF continues making lower highs and lows, a clear downtrend since mid-June.

Resistance: Previous support around 0.5840 now acts as resistance. The pair recently retested 0.5840–0.5850 and showed rejection.

Trade Plan

Entry: 0.5830 zone, ideally after observing a rejection candle (bearish rejection wick)

Take Profit: 0.5800 (psychological support), extendable to 0.5785 if momentum persists.

Stop Loss: Above 0.5860 (just over recent minor highs and retest zone).

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

On July 7, 2025, AUD/USD trades around 0.6530 amid a weakening U.S. dollar and heightened RBA rate‑cut expectations. Macroeconomic pressures looming U.S. tariffs and an RBA cut due July 8 support a rebound. Technical indicators (Bollinger, Ichimoku, Stoch) on M15 suggest a bounce is likely from 0.6525–0.6530.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65204

Entry Price

0.65650

0.65100

0.66520 -0.00118 -0.18%

20.6

Pips

Profit

0.65100

0.65410

Exit Price

0.65204

Entry Price

0.65650

Market Overview

The U.S. dollar remains near multi‑year lows, pressured by tariff uncertainties and U.S. fiscal imbalance, with AUD/USD hovering around 0.653. The RBA is widely expected to reduce its cash rate by 25 bp on July 8, part of an easing cycle to counter sluggish Q1 growth (0.2%) and subdued inflation (~2.1%). Meanwhile, global risk sentiment is fragile due to potential tariffs set to start on August 1.

Market Sentiment

Risk-off flows are denting AUD, pulling it below 0.6550 for the third consecutive day. However, traders are poised for a relief rally after this overshoot, with sentiment arguably overstating the RBA’s dovish tilt. UBS views the Australian dollar as undervalued and expects it to recover to ~0.68 by year-end.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD reverses near 0.6500–0.6550 zone — Short-term BUY setup on M15?_1

Bollinger Bands: On M15, the lower band aligns near 0.6525 while bands begin to contract following the drop classic sign of an incoming technical bounce.

Ichimoku: Price sits just at the lower range of the cloud. Tenkan/Kijun are converging, hinting at potential short-term bottoming.

Stochastic (5,3,3): Currently in the oversold zone (<20), showing a bullish crossover ideal setup for a rebound.

Supporting macro noise overlap, we see conditions ripe for a quick corrective bounce within today’s range.

Trade Plan

Entry (Buy): Around 0.6528–0.6530, once the Stoch crossover confirms oversold and an M5/M15 candle shows rejection.

Take Profit: 0.6565–0.6570 (near upper Bollinger band and previous intraday resistance)

Stop Loss: ~0.6510 (below recent swing low and lower Bollinger band)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin trades around $109,400 after inching up ~1.3% in the past 24 hours. Despite bullish headlines, technicals on lower timeframes signal caution. A false breakout scenario near $110,000 combined with waning volatility and signs of profit-taking argue for a short bias on M15–H1...

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

108029.1

Entry Price

107500.0

109000.0

90389.1 +447.7 +0.50%

357.8

Pips

Profit

107500.0

107671.3

Exit Price

108029.1

Entry Price

109000.0

Market Overview

Bitcoin has steadily climbed to approximately $109,400, up ~1.3% in the last day, nearing its all-time high of $111,970 set in May 2025 . The recent U.S. trade tariff tensions and anticipated Fed easing keep risk appetite elevated, benefiting BTC. Institutional inflows via ETFs remain robust, though recent consolidation between $100k‑$109k suggests overhead exhaustion.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Major inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs (over $6B in four weeks) and looming macro catalysts (tariffs, Fed minutes) fuel bullish narratives.

However, volatility is at multi-month lows “a powder‑keg setup” implying potential sharp moves, but also scope for a pullback if momentum fades.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin hovers near $109,400 — Sell the pop ahead of potential false breakout?_1

Bollinger Bands: Bands have narrowed significantly, suggesting a consolidation that often precedes a breakout but tighter bands also indicate reduced momentum.

Ichimoku Cloud: The price approaches thin cloud resistance near $110k. Tenkan-sen below Kijun reflects waning bullish momentum.

Stochastic: On M15, Stoch is entering overbought territory (>80) with bearish divergence emerging frequent sign of exhaustion.

Patterns: A potential false break at $110k market watchers note liquidity hunts and rejection near this level .

Combined, the setup shows a risk of reversal or at least a retracement, especially if BTC fails to decisively breach $110k.

Trading Recommendation

Entry (Sell): Around $108,000–110,000, ideally following confirmation via a rejection candle on M15 or H1.

Take Profit: Initial target $107,500–108,000, aligning with recent consolidation lows and mid-Bollinger band.

Stop Loss: Tight above $109,000 to protect against breakout continuation.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Australian Dollar weakened for a third straight session on Monday, dragged lower by rising expectations for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut and deteriorating global risk sentiment.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65200

Entry Price

0.63800

0.66000

0.66520 -0.00118 -0.18%

47.7

Pips

Profit

0.63800

0.64723

Exit Price

0.65200

Entry Price

0.66000

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, falling for the third consecutive session as investor sentiment turned increasingly bearish ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy decision. Market participants have grown almost fully convinced that the central bank will deliver another interest rate cut at Tuesday’s meeting—its third in 2025—fueling a deeper retreat in AUD/USD, which now hovers near the psychologically significant 0.6500 handle.

During American trading hours, the AUD/USD pair slipped below 0.6550, down nearly 0.85% on the day, and continues to unwind gains from last week's eight-month high. The Aussie’s weakness is driven by a potent mix of soft domestic fundamentals, dovish central bank expectations, and an increasingly risk-off global backdrop, spurred by renewed trade tensions and safe-haven flows into the US Dollar.

Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting is widely anticipated to result in a 25-basis-point cut, taking the RBA’s Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 3.85% to 3.60%. This would mark the third rate reduction in just over six months, signaling a decisive shift from a previously hawkish stance toward a more accommodative posture. More importantly, market expectations now extend beyond July—with implied odds pricing in further cuts by August and even into the final quarter of the year, should the economic slowdown deepen.

Australia’s top lenders—Westpac, NAB, and Commonwealth Bank—have aligned with this view. Westpac’s Chief Economist Luci Ellis, formerly an RBA insider, said a July cut is “the most prudent course of action” given the softening inflation picture and weakening consumption trends. Commonwealth Bank analysts see a second rate cut in August as increasingly likely, citing CPI figures that have moderated faster than expected and a central bank that appears more willing to act pre-emptively to support growth.

Recent data backs that shift in stance. First-quarter GDP showed sluggish growth of just 0.2%, while headline annual inflation has decelerated to 2.1%—comfortably within the RBA’s 2%–3% target band. Consumer spending remains tepid, retail sales have stagnated, and business sentiment surveys continue to decline. All of this paints a picture of a cooling economy that could benefit from additional monetary stimulus.

Adding fuel to the fire is the resurgence of global trade tensions. Markets are bracing for potential fallout from the July 9 U.S. tariff deadline, with growing concerns that escalating protectionist measures—particularly those targeting key Australian trade partners such as China—could trigger second-order effects across Asia-Pacific supply chains. This has further dampened risk appetite globally, prompting investors to retreat to safer assets such as the US Dollar and US Treasuries.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to near 97.30 on Monday, aided by renewed safe-haven flows and diminished expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. With the Fed signaling patience amid still-resilient inflation and a solid labor market, the interest rate differential continues to widen in favor of the Greenback—adding pressure on yield-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD’s recent performance reinforces the bearish bias. After reaching a resistance zone last week, the pair failed to sustain its upward momentum and was met with a bearish reaction, triggered by a clear negative divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This divergence often signals waning bullish strength and precedes trend reversals.

Following this, AUD/USD exited a short-term bullish channel and breached the support provided by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), which had previously underpinned the pair during its uptrend. The RSI continues to print negative signals, despite entering oversold territory—suggesting that downside momentum may persist before a meaningful recovery.

Looking ahead, a firm breakdown below 0.6500 could expose the pair to deeper losses, with next key support levels seen at 0.6450 and then 0.6380. On the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim 0.6550 and then challenge resistance near 0.6600—both of which now serve as barriers following the technical breakdown.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6520

STOP LOSS: 0.6600

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6380

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Forex

Summary:

A recovery from here could potentially target the next psychological resistance zone around 1.1900.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17358

Entry Price

1.19000

1.17000

1.17394 +0.00011 +0.01%

35.8

Pips

Loss

1.17000

1.16999

Exit Price

1.17358

Entry Price

1.19000

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone showed a notable improvement in July, according to the latest Sentix survey, with the index climbing to 4.5 points from 0.1 in June—its highest level since February 2022. According to the report, all subcomponents of the index increased for the third consecutive month. Particularly encouraging was the rise in current situation assessments. A similar positive trend is unfolding in Germany, where expectations rose by 2.3 points to 19.8, marking their third straight gain. Meanwhile, the current situation index in Germany improved for the fifth month in a row, increasing by 8.0 points but still remaining in negative territory at -18.8.

Eurozone retail sales also provided some optimism. According to official data published by Eurostat on Monday, retail sales rose by 1.8% year-over-year in May, following a revised 2.7% increase in April. The figure exceeded market expectations of a 1.2% rise. On a monthly basis, however, retail sales declined by 0.7%, in line with forecasts, after April's figure was revised up to +0.3%.

Across the Atlantic, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to begin sending official notices to trade partners this week, outlining tariffs on their exports. Although the official deadline to implement the new tariffs is Wednesday, comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—suggesting the tariffs may not take effect until August 1—have added a layer of uncertainty and kept markets on edge.

Nearly three months after the White House announced a moratorium on tariff increases, only three countries have finalized trade deals with the U.S.: China, the U.K., and Vietnam. In China’s case, the agreement focused more on de-escalating previously imposed tariffs than reaching a comprehensive trade deal. Nonetheless, the U.S. administration continues to promote the idea that additional agreements are imminent. Market sources suggest India may be close to finalizing a mini-deal, while Bessent also mentioned progress in talks with the European Union.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held firm around 4.35% on Monday, slightly higher than Friday’s close of 4.30%. The continued strength in yields reflects diminished market expectations for near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, especially amid heightened inflation risks linked to new tariffs. While the U.S. dollar remains supported by its safe-haven appeal, elevated yields are providing fundamental backing and keeping the greenback well-bid against major currencies. A Fresh Bullish Move Could Begin From Key Support_1

A Fresh Bullish Move Could Begin From Key Support_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has found support once again around the 1.1716 level, an area that previously acted as a springboard for bullish momentum. If this level holds and the price fails to break lower, it could trigger another upward move. Adding to this bullish outlook, the RSI recently approached oversold territory, suggesting that bearish pressure may be weakening. A recovery from here could potentially target the next psychological resistance zone around 1.1900.

On the 2-hour chart, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are currently located at 1.1744 and 1.1639, respectively. A recovery above the 100-period moving average would be seen as a bullish signal, possibly marking the beginning of a broader upside correction. However, a firm break below the key support area would invalidate this bullish setup and could trigger a deeper bearish leg toward the 200-period moving average.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1737

Target price: 1.1900

Stop loss: 1.1700

Validity: Jul 18, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Gold prices extended their decline on Monday following the release of the non-farm payroll data. The structural formation of gold prices is being challenged, and it may not yet be the optimal time for bulls to enter the market.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3317.43

Entry Price

3429.00

3245.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

335.8

Pips

Profit

3245.00

3351.01

Exit Price

3317.43

Entry Price

3429.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices continued their downward trend from the previous week on Monday, breaking below the $3,300 level during the European session. The U.S. June non-farm payroll data altered market expectations regarding the Fed's policy stance, putting pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, as Trump is set to announce the latest tariff statement on Monday, trade tensions have escalated once again, driving demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset and further suppressing gold prices.

Traders are now awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday evening for fresh momentum.

The latest weekly gold survey shows that industry experts remain on the sidelines regarding the short-term outlook for gold, while retail traders have strengthened their bullish bias.

Fourteen analysts participated in the survey on gold's price trend for this week. Following gold's lackluster performance last week, Wall Street analysts adopted a relatively neutral stance. Five experts (36%) expect gold prices to rise next week, while four analysts (28%) predict a decline. The remaining five analysts (36%) believe gold prices will trade sideways next week.

Bulls and Bears Enter Sensitive Phase, but Bias Remains Toward Buying on Dips_1

Technical Analysis

On the one-hour technical chart, gold prices broke below the key neckline of $3,327 during trading last Thursday. The subsequent rebound failed to surpass $3,358, forming a head-and-shoulders top pattern on the one-hour chart, which led to a significant intraday pullback in gold prices, in line with expectations. This suggests that the correction in gold prices will continue until the target range of around $3,275.

However, if prices fall to this level, it would conflict with the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern on the four-hour chart. Therefore, the current price movement of gold is caught in a constant transition between a head-and-shoulders top and bottom, indicating that the trend remains unstable and volatility is relatively high.

Nevertheless, buying on dips remains the main theme, with the optimal entry point being after prices break below $3,275.