Ethereum’s Rebound Lacks Strength, Short-Term Still Under Pressure

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Ethereum is currently quoted at $3,879. After Thursday’s meeting between U.S. and China leaders, overall market risk appetite did not improve significantly, and the crypto market remained in a narrow trading range. Although some investors expected that easing geopolitical tensions might revive risk assets, major cryptocurrencies failed to extend their rebound momentum. In the short term, Ethereum is constrained by technical resistance and outflows of capital, and may continue to oscillate in the $3,800–4,000 range.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

3642.15

Entry Price

4380.00

3340.00

3156.06 +129.10 +4.27%

3021.5

Pips

Loss

3340.00

3337.14

Exit Price

3642.15

Entry Price

4380.00

Fundamentals

Recently the market focus has been on the U.S.–China leaders’ meeting and the monetary policy outlook from the Fed. Geopolitical risk once drove a strengthening dollar and weighed on high-risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. After the U.S.–China meeting, no significant stimulus or economic/financial cooperation signals were released, global market sentiment became cautious, which deprived the crypto market of a catalyst for rebound.

In addition, according to CoinShares data, Ethereum-related fund products recorded around $25 million in net outflows last week, marking the third consecutive week of outflows, reflecting institutional investors’ cautious stance on short-term performance. Meanwhile, Ethereum network activity did not improve significantly — on-chain transaction volume and DeFi total value locked (TVL) both fell about 3% compared with September, indicating that the fundamentals currently lack the internal strength to drive prices higher.

On the policy front, the Fed is maintaining a tone of “keeping rates high for a longer period,” which continues to suppress valuations of risk assets. If October’s U.S. PCE data remains elevated, it may further weaken the rebound space for cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum’s Rebound Lacks Strength, Short-Term Still Under Pressure_1

Technical Analysis

Ethereum’s price, after breaking above $4,000 in mid-October, was repeatedly capped near the $4,100–4,300 range, forming a temporary top. Currently the price has fallen back to around $3,879, and the short-term structure is in a downward trend channel.

The first support lies at $3,820; if it is broken, the next target will be around $3,720 (previous heavy trading zone).

On the upside, resistance is at $3,950 and $4,020; only a successful breakthrough above $4,000 might allow the short-term structure to reverse from bearish.

Ethereum’s price failed to benefit from a rebound in risk appetite after the U.S.–China leaders’ meeting, reflecting the market’s continued caution about macro and liquidity conditions. Short-term trend remains weak, investors should closely monitor inflation and employment data, as well as ETH main-net development progress and fund flow changes. In the absence of fundamental drivers, Ethereum’s price is very likely to remain in a range, with a defensive stance advised while waiting for a new directional signal.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3645

Target Price: 4380

Stop Loss: 3340

Valid Until: November 14, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3840 / 3710 / 3649

Resistance Levels: 4024 / 4115 / 4253

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

GBP/USD extended its three-day slide, dropping below 1.3200 amid a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, while market attention turns to the Bank of England’s upcoming policy decision and UK fiscal plans.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.31700

Entry Price

1.27000

1.33000

1.33282 -0.00030 -0.02%

24.7

Pips

Profit

1.27000

1.31453

Exit Price

1.31700

Entry Price

1.33000

GBP/USD extended its losses for a third consecutive session on Thursday, tumbling over 0.25% as traders pushed the currency pair below the key 1.3200 handle. At the time of writing, the British pound trades near 1.3160, after briefly touching a daily high of 1.3218. The move comes in the wake of a “hawkish” U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, with Chairman Jerome Powell signaling that a further reduction in December is “far from a foregone conclusion,” dampening hopes for additional monetary easing.

The latest Federal Reserve decision saw rates cut to a range of 3.75%-4%, though the vote was not unanimous. Fed Governor Stephen Miran pushed for a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged. In addition, the Fed announced the conclusion of Quantitative Easing on December 1, underscoring a cautious approach amid limited U.S. economic data caused by the ongoing government shutdown, now entering its 30th day. Powell emphasized that risks remain tilted to the upside for inflation and downside for employment, adding that constructive discussions took place regarding the December meeting.

The pound remains under pressure ahead of next week’s Bank of England (BoE) policy decision and the UK government’s fiscal announcements. Reports from the Financial Times suggest Chancellor Reeves is considering an early removal of the windfall tax on the UK oil and gas sector, while The Telegraph notes a possible 2% increase in income tax is on the table. These potential fiscal changes have added to the cautious sentiment surrounding sterling.

The U.S. economic calendar remains light, with market participants eyeing speeches from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan later today, followed by comments from Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack at a research conference on Friday. These remarks are expected to provide further guidance on the Fed’s stance amid the ongoing uncertainty.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is displaying a bearish bias. The pair’s recent failure to hold above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3242 has paved the way for the decline below 1.3200. Intraday, the pair has found temporary support around 1.3190.This support has helped the pound stabilize marginally and recover from oversold conditions indicated by relative strength metrics.

Despite these brief gains, the overarching trend remains firmly negative. A sustained daily close below the 200-day SMA would confirm a shift in market sentiment, exposing further downside targets at the psychologically significant 1.3000 level and the April 8 low of 1.2700.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3170

STOP LOSS: 1.3300

TAKE PROFIT: 1.2700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The euro remains firm near record highs against the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-dovish stance, reinforcing yen weakness.

BUY EURJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

178.490

Entry Price

182.000

177.050

181.118 +0.245 +0.14%

144.0

Pips

Loss

177.050

177.046

Exit Price

178.490

Entry Price

182.000

The euro is holding near record highs against the Japanese yen on Thursday, as the Japanese currency continues to languish under the weight of the Bank of Japan’s dovish policy stance. The EUR/JPY pair traded around 178.30 in European afternoon hours, up roughly 0.6% on the day, as investors digested the BoJ’s latest monetary policy decision and looked ahead to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement later in the session.

The Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.50%, a move that was widely expected by markets. The decision, backed by a 7–2 majority, saw board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata dissent in favor of a 25-basis point hike to 0.75%, highlighting a growing but still limited divide within the board over the pace of policy normalization.

Despite persistent inflation pressures and rising wages in Japan, the central bank maintained a cautious approach. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that monetary conditions would remain accommodative “as long as necessary,” noting that the economy was still facing uncertainty from both global trade and geopolitical risks. “We will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts,” Ueda said, while emphasizing that the bank must remain vigilant amid fragile global demand and policy uncertainty in major economies.

The tone from the BoJ reinforced the view that Japan’s normalization path will be slow and incremental — a stance that continues to undermine the yen’s appeal. The currency remains one of the weakest among major peers this year, pressured by a wide yield gap with the U.S. and Europe. The spread between Japanese and European bond yields remains particularly stark, fueling carry trade demand that favors the euro and other higher-yielding currencies.

In contrast, the euro found additional support from stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data earlier in the day. Preliminary figures showed that the Eurozone’s GDP expanded by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, outpacing expectations for 0.1%. On an annual basis, growth reached 1.3% year-on-year, slightly above forecasts and suggesting that the bloc’s economy continues to show resilience despite high borrowing costs and sluggish manufacturing activity.

The data underpins the ECB’s case for maintaining its current cautious stance rather than pivoting toward renewed tightening. Inflation in the euro area has eased in recent months but remains above the central bank’s target, while the economic outlook remains fragile amid weak business sentiment and subdued consumer spending.

Attention now turns to the ECB’s monetary policy decision, scheduled for 13:15 GMT. Markets expect all three key policy rates to remain unchanged — the Deposit Facility Rate at 2.00%, the Main Refinancing Operations Rate at 2.15%, and the Marginal Lending Facility Rate at 2.40%. Traders will focus on Christine Lagarde’s post-meeting remarks for any hints on whether the ECB may adjust its stance before year-end or maintain its “higher for longer” rate posture.

Lagarde’s tone could be pivotal for short-term moves in the euro. A hawkish signal emphasizing inflation risks could reinforce euro strength, while any dovish hints about policy easing in early 2026 could cap gains. For now, traders appear comfortable betting on further euro resilience against the yen, given the clear divergence between the ECB’s relatively steady approach and the BoJ’s entrenched dovishness.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY maintains a bullish outlook after breaking above the 178.80 resistance level earlier in the session — a move that signals continued upward momentum. A sustained move above this threshold could open the way for further gains toward 180.00 and potentially 182.00, marking fresh multi-year highs.

However, a pullback below 177.05 would invalidate the near-term bullish bias, likely triggering a corrective move toward 176.30 and 175.65. For today, analysts expect the trading range between 177.10 and 178.65, with momentum indicators still favoring the upside as long as the pair holds above 177.00.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 178.50

STOP LOSS: 177.05

TAKE PROFIT: 182.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The EUR/GBP pair hovered near 0.8800 on Thursday, its highest level since May 2023, after the European Central Bank left rates unchanged and reaffirmed a data-dependent stance.

BUY EURGBP

Close Time

CLOSED

0.87900

Entry Price

0.89000

0.87100

0.87424 +0.00108 +0.12%

21.3

Pips

Profit

0.87100

0.88113

Exit Price

0.87900

Entry Price

0.89000

The EUR/GBP pair consolidated near a five-month high around 0.8800 on Thursday, buoyed by a broadly steady Euro and a fragile Pound Sterling. The divergence between the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious optimism and the United Kingdom’s faltering domestic outlook has reignited buying interest in the cross, underscoring the widening policy gap between Frankfurt and London.

The ECB kept its key interest rates unchanged, as expected — maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.4%, and the deposit facility at 2%. The central bank emphasized that inflation remains close to its medium-term 2% target, signaling no urgency for further easing. The policy statement struck a balanced tone, highlighting both resilience and risk: while Eurozone growth continues to hold firm, the global economic backdrop remains riddled with uncertainties, from ongoing trade tensions to geopolitical flare-ups.

At her post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde maintained a cautiously confident stance. She acknowledged that “the outlook remains uncertain,” but emphasized that underlying inflation trends are broadly consistent with the ECB’s price stability objective. Lagarde also cited the Eurozone’s strong labor market and the delayed benefits of prior rate cuts as reasons for stability in economic activity. Yet, she warned that external risks — particularly the war in Ukraine and fragile global trade dynamics — could still weigh on the medium-term outlook.

Notably, Lagarde pointed out that a stronger Euro could dampen imported inflation pressures, potentially complicating the ECB’s task of maintaining price stability. At the same time, she cautioned that higher defense spending across member states might inject fresh inflationary pressures, suggesting that the central bank will continue to take a data-dependent approach rather than committing to any pre-defined policy path.

Economic data out of Germany earlier in the day provided additional reassurance to the ECB. Preliminary figures showed annual CPI inflation easing slightly to 2.3% in October, down from 2.4% in September, marginally above forecasts. Similarly, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) — the ECB’s preferred inflation measure — slipped to 2.3% year-on-year. While the readings confirm disinflation progress, they also highlight the challenge of achieving further moderation without risking growth momentum.

Across the Channel, the Pound Sterling remains on the defensive. Traders are increasingly concerned that the UK economy could face deeper structural headwinds following the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) decision to cut productivity growth forecasts by 0.3%, a downgrade that could expand the fiscal deficit by £20 billion. The revision arrives just weeks ahead of the Autumn Budget on November 26, putting additional pressure on Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to balance fiscal prudence with growth incentives.

This weaker outlook reinforces expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may soon pivot toward a more dovish policy stance. Money markets are now pricing in a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, while Goldman Sachs and other analysts suggest the first rate reduction could come as early as next week. The possibility of an accelerated easing cycle contrasts sharply with the ECB’s steady-hand approach, driving renewed upward momentum in EUR/GBP.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the pair’s price action has turned decisively bullish. EUR/GBP broke through a key weekly resistance with conviction, invalidating previous bearish projections. The breakout suggests renewed buying momentum, with price expected to retest the broken border zone before potentially extending gains toward the 0.8900 area — a level aligned with the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range.

Traders are closely monitoring short-term pullbacks as potential buying opportunities, particularly near the low-volume node identified around 0.8770–0.8780. Sustained closes above 0.8800 could confirm the formation of a bullish continuation pattern, while a break below 0.8750 would be needed to challenge the upward bias.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURGBP

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8790

STOP LOSS: 0.8710

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8900

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The U.S. dollar extended gains against the Swiss franc on Thursday, with USD/CHF climbing near 0.8000 after the Federal Reserve’s cautious but hawkish rate cut bolstered dollar sentiment.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.80153

Entry Price

0.80800

0.79800

0.80443 -0.00012 -0.01%

19.4

Pips

Profit

0.79800

0.80347

Exit Price

0.80153

Entry Price

0.80800

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday, as investors responded positively to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance despite a widely expected rate cut. The USD/CHF pair rose around 0.20% on the day, trading near the 0.8000 level, as market participants recalibrated their expectations for further policy easing.

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, meeting market forecasts. However, the tone of the accompanying statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments during the press conference were notably cautious about the path of future rate cuts. Powell emphasized that an additional reduction in December was “far from a foregone conclusion,” signaling that the central bank intends to proceed carefully given the recent volatility in inflation and mixed economic indicators.

This statement prompted traders to reassess the likelihood of another rate cut this year. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December rate cut fell sharply to 70% after the meeting, down from nearly 90% prior. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the combination of Powell’s hawkish rhetoric and a divided vote within the Federal Open Market Committee reinforced support for the U.S. dollar, as the Fed’s tone suggested a firmer commitment to managing inflation rather than pursuing aggressive easing.

The dollar’s resilience was also underpinned by improving global sentiment following an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Beijing. The United States and China announced a one-year trade truce that includes mutual concessions to roll back some tariffs and relax export restrictions. As part of the agreement, China pledged to resume imports of key U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans and corn, while the U.S. agreed to reduce certain tariffs on Chinese goods. Beijing also moved to lift restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals, easing concerns in sectors dependent on advanced manufacturing and technology.

The truce comes as a relief to global markets, which have been rattled by trade tensions that slowed global growth and dampened investor confidence throughout the year. Although the deal stops short of resolving deeper structural issues between the two economic superpowers, it provides a window of stability and has revived appetite for risk assets, including equities and commodity-linked currencies. For the Swiss franc, which traditionally benefits from risk aversion, the improved market mood weakened its safe-haven appeal, allowing USD/CHF to edge higher.

Meanwhile, recent economic data from Switzerland showed tentative signs of recovery. The ZEW Expectations Index for October rebounded sharply to -7.7 from -46.4 in September, reflecting a more optimistic economic outlook among analysts and investors. Additionally, the KOF Leading Indicator climbed to 101.3 from 98.0, surpassing market expectations and indicating stronger forward momentum for the Swiss economy. Nevertheless, the franc remained subdued as broader market forces favored the dollar.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF has broken above a key resistance zone between 0.80082 and 0.80201, confirming renewed bullish momentum. The breakout has transformed this area into a fresh support base, suggesting the potential for continued upward movement. The pair’s pivot point near 0.8000 has held firm, acting as a springboard for buyers to regain control. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages, are tilting upward, pointing to sustained buying interest.

If the pair maintains its footing above the 0.8000 threshold, the next resistance target stands around 0.80540, corresponding to a recent swing high. A successful breach above this level would reinforce the bullish trend and open the path toward 0.8080 in the short term. On the downside, a drop below 0.8000 could trigger a mild correction toward 0.7975, though the broader structure continues to favor the upside.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.80150

STOP LOSS: 0.7980

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8080

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

NZDUSD is currently trading near 0.5762, continuing its recent low-range consolidation. With US economic data remaining strong, market expectations for another Fed rate cut this year have cooled significantly. The dollar index remains firm, leaving the Kiwi with little rebound impetus. In the short term, New Zealand’s domestic economic slowdown and weakening global risk appetite jointly suppress the Kiwi’s performance, and the pair faces further downside risk.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.57331

Entry Price

0.56000

0.58600

0.57861 +0.00107 +0.19%

34.5

Pips

Profit

0.56000

0.56986

Exit Price

0.57331

Entry Price

0.58600

Fundamentals

Recent US Q3 GDP preliminary reading showed a +2.7% annualised QoQ growth rate, exceeding expectations and indicating that economic resilience remains strong. Meanwhile, Fed officials have generally adopted a cautious tone, noting that inflation risks are not fully resolved; market expectations for a December rate cut have clearly cooled. This has kept US yields elevated and the dollar index hovering above the 99.00 handle, broadly weighing on non-USD currencies.

In contrast, New Zealand’s domestic recovery remains weak. Latest CPI data shows that although inflation has fallen from last year’s peak, it remains above the upper bound of the central bank’s target range; at the same time, housing and exports remain sluggish and business confidence continues to stay at low levels. The market broadly expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep rates unchanged for the coming months, in order to observe further movements in inflation and the labour market.

Additionally, global risk appetite has recently diminished. Tensions in the Middle East, oil volatility and weakness in Asian equity markets have all increased safe-haven flows into the dollar, which also places pressure on higher-beta currencies such as the Kiwi.

Kiwi Rebound Lacks Momentum, Strong Dollar Restricts Upside_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical structure viewpoint, NZDUSD has formed a clear downward channel over the past two weeks, with the price repeatedly capped by a descending trendline near 0.5800. Short-term support lies at 0.5735 (last week’s low). If this level is breached, a further drop toward 0.5700 or even 0.5650 may follow.

Conversely, if price can hold above 0.5820 convincingly, a short-term rebound could open toward 0.5880. However, the RSI is still below 50 and the MACD fast line is below the zero axis, indicating that momentum remains bearish.

Overall, if the US economy continues to outperform expectations and the dollar stays strong, NZDUSD may gravitate toward the year-to-date low near 0.5600. Only a hawkish turn by the RBNZ or a broad dollar weakening could enable a trend rebound in the Kiwi.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 0.5777

Target Price: 0.5600

Stop Loss: 0.5860

Valid Until: November 14, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 0.5735 / 0.5710 / 0.5682

Resistance Levels: 0.5802 / 0.5820 / 0.5845

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Economic

Summary:

Following the release of GDP data from Germany and the Eurozone, the EURUSD exchange rate remained stable. Traders are maintaining a cautious stance ahead of the upcoming interest-rate decision from the European Central Bank (ECB).

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16130

Entry Price

1.12000

1.18200

1.16519 +0.00093 +0.08%

39.8

Pips

Profit

1.12000

1.15732

Exit Price

1.16130

Entry Price

1.18200

Fundamentals

Following the release of GDP data from Germany and the euro area, the EURUSD exchange rate remained stable. Traders are treading cautiously ahead of the ECB's imminent interest-rate decision. Markets widely expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged at its October meeting, which will be the third consecutive hold, and see no policy shift through the end of 2025. Attention is also centered on unemployment figures for both Germany and the euro zone, as well as on Germany's CPI.

Following their high-profile meeting in South Korea, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that tariffs on Chinese goods will be reduced from the current 57% to 47%. He also stated that the rare-earth dispute has been resolved, ensuring that no additional restrictions will be imposed on China's exports of critical minerals. In addition, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized that "both sides should focus on the long-term interests of cooperation."

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure amid uncertainty over the Fed's policy stance in December. Policymakers acknowledge that inflationary pressures could broadly pick up in the second half of the year, yet this is not seen as sufficient to preclude a further reduction in the federal funds rate. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized, however, that the likelihood of another cut in December is far from assured.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approved the rate reduction by a 10-to-2 vote, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%–4%. The Fed also announced that balance-sheet runoff will cease effective 1 December, when maturing agency debt will be reinvested into Treasury bills.

Among them, Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented from the decision, advocating for a 50 bps rate cut. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid favored keeping rates unchanged. The statement continued to use the previous description of the labor market, saying that "employment growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has risen but remains low as of August." The statement added that "recent indicators are consistent with the above changes" and "the downside risks to employment have increased in recent months."

The Fed stated that existing indicators suggest that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, reiterating that inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and is still at a relatively high level.

Technical Analysis

On the daily timeframe, following a death cross signal on EURUSD, the MACD fast and slow lines have dropped below the zero axis, indicating the market has entered a bearish phase. The Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with moving averages diverging downward. Price is oscillating lower along the EMA12. The RSI reading of 45 reflects pessimistic market sentiment. If the pair breaks below 1.16 again, it will likely decline toward the previous low of 1.154 and the EMA200 level near 1.139.

From a weekly perspective, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, with price oscillating around the middle band. After the MACD death cross, the fast and slow lines are pulling back toward the zero axis but still have some distance to go, suggesting the correction is not yet complete. The RSI at 55 shows gradually lower highs, indicating a wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Once the middle Bollinger Band fails to hold as support, price will likely drop toward the EMA50 or even the lower Bollinger Band.

Therefore, the short-term trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions on rallies.