Bulls and Bears Enter Sensitive Phase, but Bias Remains Toward Buying on Dips

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Gold prices extended their decline on Monday following the release of the non-farm payroll data. The structural formation of gold prices is being challenged, and it may not yet be the optimal time for bulls to enter the market.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3317.43

Entry Price

3429.00

3245.00

4210.72 +12.81 +0.31%

335.8

Pips

Profit

3245.00

3351.01

Exit Price

3317.43

Entry Price

3429.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices continued their downward trend from the previous week on Monday, breaking below the $3,300 level during the European session. The U.S. June non-farm payroll data altered market expectations regarding the Fed's policy stance, putting pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, as Trump is set to announce the latest tariff statement on Monday, trade tensions have escalated once again, driving demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset and further suppressing gold prices.

Traders are now awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday evening for fresh momentum.

The latest weekly gold survey shows that industry experts remain on the sidelines regarding the short-term outlook for gold, while retail traders have strengthened their bullish bias.

Fourteen analysts participated in the survey on gold's price trend for this week. Following gold's lackluster performance last week, Wall Street analysts adopted a relatively neutral stance. Five experts (36%) expect gold prices to rise next week, while four analysts (28%) predict a decline. The remaining five analysts (36%) believe gold prices will trade sideways next week.

Bulls and Bears Enter Sensitive Phase, but Bias Remains Toward Buying on Dips_1

Technical Analysis

On the one-hour technical chart, gold prices broke below the key neckline of $3,327 during trading last Thursday. The subsequent rebound failed to surpass $3,358, forming a head-and-shoulders top pattern on the one-hour chart, which led to a significant intraday pullback in gold prices, in line with expectations. This suggests that the correction in gold prices will continue until the target range of around $3,275.

However, if prices fall to this level, it would conflict with the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern on the four-hour chart. Therefore, the current price movement of gold is caught in a constant transition between a head-and-shoulders top and bottom, indicating that the trend remains unstable and volatility is relatively high.

Nevertheless, buying on dips remains the main theme, with the optimal entry point being after prices break below $3,275.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3272

Target Price: 3429

Stop Loss: 3245

Valid Until: July 22, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3290/3275/3256

Resistance: 3315/3328/3346

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

Gold prices hover just above the $3,300 threshold as traders digest strong U.S. jobs data, renewed Fed hawkishness, and rising global trade tensions.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3310.00

Entry Price

3250.00

3340.00

4210.72 +12.81 +0.31%

115.4

Pips

Profit

3250.00

3298.46

Exit Price

3310.00

Entry Price

3340.00

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading defensively at the start of the week, holding precariously above the $3,300 level as investors balance a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve expectations with looming trade and geopolitical developments. The yellow metal has come under renewed selling pressure following a firm U.S. jobs report and stronger Treasury yields, which are tempering hopes for near-term interest rate cuts from the Fed. At the time of writing, gold is fluctuating near $3,305 per ounce, edging closer to a key technical support zone amid broader market uncertainty.

The catalyst behind gold’s latest dip was last Thursday’s better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed the U.S. economy added more jobs than analysts had anticipated. This reinforced the narrative that the American labor market remains resilient despite higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation pressures. Consequently, traders have started to scale back bets on a July rate cut from the Federal Reserve, driving Treasury yields higher and bolstering the U.S. Dollar.

For gold, which yields no interest and typically moves inversely to real yields and the dollar, this recalibration has been a bearish development. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has climbed to near 4.40%, reflecting a market that is now beginning to price in a longer period of policy restraint by the Fed. As a result, gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement has weakened in the near term.

Still, the metal’s ability to hold above $3,300 amid rising yields suggests that downside momentum remains tentative — with traders likely awaiting further clarity from the Fed and upcoming economic data before committing to a more decisive directional bias.

While the macroeconomic backdrop is becoming less supportive for bullion, escalating geopolitical rhetoric may be providing a cushion beneath gold prices. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is widely seen as the Republican frontrunner for November’s election, issued fresh warnings over the weekend regarding tariffs on nations that support what he described as “anti-American BRICS policies.”

Although vague, these comments have re-ignited concerns over a renewed phase of U.S.-led protectionism, particularly if Trump returns to the White House. Global investors are already wary of how such policies could impact cross-border trade flows, commodities, and emerging market stability. For gold, a traditional haven in times of uncertainty, this presents a double-edged narrative — short-term downside from stronger dollar dynamics, but long-term upside risk if trade disruptions become more pronounced.

The market is also closely watching Wednesday’s looming tariff deadline — part of a scheduled review of trade restrictions under Section 301 — which could mark another flashpoint in U.S.-China relations or broader global trade policy. Any escalation could revive demand for safe-haven assets, including gold.

Monday also marked the return of U.S. market participants after the July 4th holiday, bringing a rebound in liquidity and trading volumes. However, the directional conviction in gold remains weak, with traders reluctant to place big bets ahead of key Federal Reserve speakers scheduled later in the week. Any fresh commentary on inflation or rate policy will likely dictate the next leg in gold’s trajectory.

As it stands, Fed officials have remained largely consistent in their message: inflation has cooled, but not enough to justify rate cuts just yet. This narrative continues to cap any sustained upside in gold, as real interest rates remain elevated. Until there is a tangible shift in the Fed's tone or a deterioration in U.S. data, bullion may struggle to regain its upward momentum.

Technical Analysis

Technically, gold remains under pressure on the short-term charts, having pulled back from recent highs around $3,330. Price action has slid toward the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle formation, with the $3,300 area acting as immediate support. A breakdown below this zone could expose gold to further downside toward $3,275 and potentially $3,250 — levels that coincide with previous consolidation zones and minor Fibonacci retracements.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3310

STOP LOSS: 3340

TAKE PROFIT: 3250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Japan's real wages have recorded their steepest decline since 2023, exacerbating the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy predicament.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

198.351

Entry Price

204.140

196.000

207.030 -0.070 -0.03%

94.5

Pips

Profit

196.000

199.296

Exit Price

198.351

Entry Price

204.140