Bullish Momentum Remains Intact

Summary:

Following the establishment of a new all-time high at US$3,056, gold prices have experienced a minor pullback. Bulls have found support near the US$3,000 level, although technical indicators warrant caution.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3022.86

Entry Price

3086.00

2975.00

4075.11 +3.49 +0.09%

631.4

Pips

Profit

2975.00

3086.06

Exit Price

3022.86

Entry Price

3086.00

Fundamentals

Following an improvement in market sentiment, safe-haven demand waned, leading to a minor sell-off in low-risk assets like gold during Monday's trading session, which has since stabilized. This reflects the market's expectation that the upcoming round of U.S. tariffs, slated for implementation on April 2, will be more targeted and measured than initially anticipated. The U.S. dollar also experienced a rebound, driven by tariff-related easing, further pressuring gold prices.

However, we believe that while the U.S. Dollar Index has successfully maintained its critical long-term support above 103, this does not pose a significant threat to gold's upward trajectory, as U.S. interest rates are unlikely to provide substantial support to the dollar in the short term. We anticipate that the Federal Reserve's current neutral stance will not significantly impede gold prices for the remainder of the year.

The uncertainty and volatility surrounding potential tariffs under President Trump will likely outweigh the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on the dollar in the near term.

Technical Analysis

Following a record high of US$3,056 last week, gold prices have experienced a slight pullback. However, the rebound near the US$3,000 psychological level indicates sustained demand for safe-haven assets.

Concerns have emerged regarding the sustainability of gold's rally after three consecutive weeks of strong bullish momentum, as the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic indicators have begun to decline after peaking in the overbought zone.

However, the price of gold demonstrated resilience around the US$3,000 threshold, with a halt in the Asian session on Tuesday. A breach above the overnight high of US$3,033 could potentially test the resistance near US$3,056, which was touched last week. Given that the oscillators in the 1D timeframe remain stable within positive territory, further buying could be seen as a new catalyst for the bull market, setting the stage for the continuation of the months-long upward trend.

Conversely, a decisive break below the US$3,000 psychological level could trigger technical selling, potentially pulling the price down to the US$2,982-US$2,975 range. A corrective decline could extend further to the next support level at US$2,956-US$2,952.

Overall, while gold's positive momentum may wane in the coming trading days, the upward trend remains intact; a break below US$2,952-US$2,930 would be required to alter the current bullish trend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3015

Target Price: 3086

Stop Loss: 2975

Valid Until: April 9, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3015, 3002, 3000

Resistance: 3028, 3033, 3038

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