Brent crude fails to break $72 territory—bearish move on rising supply risk?

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

On 31 July 2025, Brent traded around $71.80–72.00, showing weakness near upper resistance. Despite occasional rebounds, bearish signals are mounting amid growing supply outlook and weak demand trends. Indicators suggest limited upside and potential drop toward $71.00 and lower....

SELL BRENT

Close Time

CLOSED

71.000

Entry Price

70.000

72.000

63.542 +0.086 +0.14%

100.0

Pips

Profit

70.000

69.997

Exit Price

71.000

Entry Price

72.000

Overview

Brent futures are trading at approximately $71.35–72.23/bbl, slightly down from earlier highs in the $72.80 range. Despite recent geopolitical flare‑ups, improved supply expectations from OPEC+ and renewed Chinese demand concerns are pressuring prices. Brent could average around $60/bbl by late 2025 if supply constraints ease further.

Market sentiment

Crude is currently in a bearish trend, with analysts recommending a "sell on rise" approach amid stagnant demand growth perspectives and expanding supply from non‑OPEC producers. Markets have also shifted to a neutral-to-bearish technical bias as speculative long positions in Brent and WTI reach multi‑week highs, suggesting a crowded trade ripe for reversal.

Technical analysis

Brent crude fails to break $72 territory—bearish move on rising supply risk?_1

Daily trend: Brent is trading near the upper resistance band around $72.80, having failed multiple breakout attempts. Intervene with caution on long positions.

the RSI sits around 43, stochastic ~29, MACD slightly bullish—but the broader indicator set leans bearish or oversold with limited bullish momentum.

Trading recommendation

Entry Zone (Sell limit): $71—near resistance after minor rebound and failed breakout.

TP: $70.00–70.50 (deeper downside scenario if momentum persists and U.S./Chine slowdown accelerates)

Stop Loss: Above $72.95 (break above upper resistance invalidates bearish case)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The British Pound continues its downward spiral against the US Dollar, pressured by strong U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, with technical signals warning of further declines as the market reprices interest rate expectations.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.32300

Entry Price

1.28630

1.38800

1.33379 +0.00067 +0.05%

344.3

Pips

Loss

1.28630

1.35743

Exit Price

1.32300

Entry Price

1.38800

The British Pound extended its losing streak for the sixth consecutive session on Thursday, plunging to the 1.3200 handle against the U.S. Dollar during the European trading session. The GBP/USD pair remains under intense selling pressure, with the U.S. Dollar holding firm near a two-month high as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which remains elevated near the 100.00 mark following a string of strong U.S. economic data and hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Investors are rapidly unwinding their expectations for a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve after the latest macroeconomic data painted a picture of a resilient U.S. economy. The sharp repricing of rate expectations has reinforced dollar strength, dragging the Pound and other major currencies lower in the process.

The turning point in sentiment came after the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed that the American economy grew at an annualized pace of 3% in the second quarter, surpassing consensus forecasts of 2.4%. This marks a dramatic rebound from the first quarter, where GDP had contracted by 0.5%. The acceleration in growth, coupled with improving labor market conditions, has given the Fed renewed confidence to hold interest rates steady.

Adding to the bullish tone for the U.S. Dollar was a surprisingly strong report from ADP, which showed the private sector added 104,000 new jobs in June, comfortably beating the expected 78,000. This followed a weaker reading in May, when the workforce contracted by 23,000, and has now raised questions about whether the earlier weakness was simply a one-off rather than a trend.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this sentiment during his latest public remarks, stating that the U.S. economy remains in a “solid position” and that inflation, while “somewhat above target,” does not yet justify a change in the current policy stance. Powell’s assertion that the current rate setting is appropriate has dealt a blow to dovish market participants who were banking on a September rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a September rate cut has dropped to just 43.2%, down sharply from 63.3% earlier in the week.

This hawkish pivot from the Fed has created a widening divergence between the U.S. and the United Kingdom. While the Federal Reserve appears content to wait and observe further data, the Bank of England remains in a far more precarious position. Britain’s economic recovery continues to be uneven, hampered by sticky inflation, soft business investment, and rising consumer debt burdens. With the UK economy at risk of stagnation, the Bank of England is navigating an increasingly narrow path between keeping inflation under control and avoiding a deeper economic slowdown.

Technical Analysis

The divergence in economic fundamentals and policy outlooks is now being starkly reflected in the charts. The GBP/USD pair has not only lost ground but has also broken key technical structures that previously supported the bullish narrative. The pair has decisively fallen below the ascending channel that had been intact since mid-April, marking a significant shift in market sentiment. This break is not just a technical breach but a confirmation that sellers are now firmly in control.

The breakdown from this structure, coupled with the pair’s continued trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, has intensified bearish pressure. Price action has also struggled to gain traction after testing a previously identified bearish order block near the 1.34166 level, which has now been validated as strong resistance. The rejection from this area only underscores the dominance of sellers in the current market environment.

While short-term technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index suggest the pair may be entering oversold territory, any rebound is likely to be shallow and corrective in nature. The most probable scenario from here is a brief pullback into the 1.32700 to 1.33000 zone — potentially a retest of broken support — followed by a resumption of the downtrend. If the bearish momentum continues, the pair is likely to test the 1.30300 level in the coming sessions, with deeper downside potential extending toward the 1.28630 area.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3230

STOP LOSS: 1.3880

TAKE PROFIT: 1.28630

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On 31 July 2025, EUR/CAD reversed higher from a cluster of strong support near 1.5950, supported by the 20‑day moving average and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May–June rally...

BUY EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.58500

Entry Price

1.61000

1.58000

1.61053 +0.00190 +0.12%

70.8

Pips

Profit

1.58000

1.59208

Exit Price

1.58500

Entry Price

1.61000