Influenced by rising food prices, Japan's wholesale price index in October exceeded market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures and potentially increasing the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) difficulty in resuming interest rate hikes. Data shows that due to high rice and other food prices, Japan's corporate goods price index rose by 2.7% year-over-year in October, slightly below September's 2.8% but still surpassing the forecasted 2.5%. Although import prices in yen declined by 1.5% YoY, rising domestic food and non-ferrous metal prices contributed to the overall increase in wholesale prices. Analysts suggest that if Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government proceeds with policies to reduce utility costs as part of stimulus measures, wholesale inflation could slow. However, expansionary fiscal policies may also weaken the yen, elevating import costs and maintaining upward pressure on inflation. Kazuo Ueda further emphasized in the Diet that domestic consumer resilience, the tightening labor market driving wage growth, and the resulting moderate increases in wages and prices constitute a positive feedback loop. Aside from raw material cost inflation, rising prices in the service sector and other goods reflect underlying economic recovery momentum. He believes that core inflation, excluding temporary factors, is accelerating, indicating that Japan is progressing toward the 2% inflation target. However, the BOJ's policy capacity is constrained by government fiscal expansion. Since ending the monetary easing measures implemented during Kuroda Haruhiko's tenure, the BOJ has raised short-term interest rates twice to 0.5% but has maintained stability to assess impacts from global economic shifts. Analysts suggest that the BOJ is attempting to adjust interest rates toward a neutral level—approximately 1% to 1.5%—though large-scale government expenditure plans and appointments of officials supporting accommodative policies may delay this adjustment. Fiscal expansion has raised market concerns, pushing long-term bond yields higher and contributing to yen depreciation, which in turn escalates import costs and inflationary pressures. Some former policymakers warn that this trend could undermine household purchasing power and threaten the sustainability of Japan's economic recovery.

The U.S. on the other side of the Pacific faces ongoing economic and policy uncertainties. After a record-breaking 43-day government shutdown, the federal government has finally reopened. During the impasse, air traffic was disrupted, food assistance programs were interrupted, and over a million federal employees experienced prolonged unpaid leave. Although Congress approved funding through an appropriations bill extending until the end of January next year, core partisan disagreements remain unresolved. Within the Democratic Party, fissures have emerged over strategies toward the Trump administration, with progressives demanding a tough stance and moderates advocating for pragmatic collaboration. Polling indicates that the shutdown has negatively impacted public opinion for both parties. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a 1.5% decline in U.S. GDP, approximately US$50 billion in delayed expenditures, with US$14 billion of losses deemed irrecoverable. Disruptions to economic data releases have complicated Federal Reserve and investor assessments of the economic outlook, adding uncertainty to holiday spending behavior. In this context, Federal Reserve officials exhibit increased caution regarding future policy adjustments. Federal Reserve Chair Mary Daly indicated that the risks between achieving price stability and employment goals have become balanced, leading to an open stance on the possibility of a rate cut in December. She emphasized that future policy decisions will depend on newly released data, and it is premature to assert a rate cut at this stage. Despite inflation not yet stabilizing at 2%, the labor market shows some signs of softening. Consequently, market expectations for a December rate reduction have decreased significantly from 67% to 47%. Other officials, such as Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Boston Fed President Collins, also expressed cautious views, suggesting that policy easing should only occur if employment deteriorates substantially. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that a rate cut in December is "far from certain", citing data uncertainties caused by the government shutdown. Market analysts believe that there is no consensus within the Fed on the next policy direction, with balancing inflation and employment remaining a primary consideration.

In the 1D timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, with the SMAs diverging, indicating an ongoing bullish trend. However, the candlestick pattern forms a wedge, and the MACD momentum is diminishing, while the RSI stands at 62, reflecting strong bullish market sentiment. Nonetheless, the recent highs are progressively declining, suggesting a probable correction to the EMA12 or the middle band of the Bollinger, at levels of approximately 153.8 and 152.8, respectively. In the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, and the SMAs are flattening. After the MACD formed a death cross, the MACD line and signal line are beginning to reapproach the zero-axis, currently at a considerable distance, indicating that the correction phase is still underway. The RSI is at 52, signifying that market participants are largely in a wait-and-see stance. Should the price break below the middle Bollinger band, a correction toward the EMA200 at approximately 152.2 is probable; conversely, if the price maintains above the middle band, further upward movement towards 156 is likely. It is recommended to go short initially before going long in the short term.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 154.6

Target Price: 151.4

Stop Loss: 156

Support: 150, 148.5, 146.6

Resistance: 155, 156.7, 158.8

A wave of recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials has collectively built a wall of consensus around the idea of "cautious rate cuts." While figures like Daly, Mussarelm, Kashkari, and Hammack have varied slightly in tone—some more hawkish, others more dovish—their core message has been remarkably consistent: policy is now close to neutral, future actions will depend heavily on incoming data, and no preset path is being followed. This unified "verbal intervention" has successfully tempered overly aggressive market expectations for rate cuts. As a result, the U.S. dollar index pulled back, yet gold did not benefit accordingly. The more critical factor is the market's reassessment of the interest rate trajectory, with potential upward revisions to real interest rate expectations undermining the appeal of non-interest-bearing gold. However, it may be premature to interpret the recent pullback in gold as a signal of a trend reversal. First, structural concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar are forming a foundational pillar for gold's long-term bullish outlook. European officials have discussed creating alternative dollar liquidity mechanisms outside the Federal Reserve. Although such plans face practical hurdles, the mere intention is symbolic—it reflects growing global apprehension over the weaponization of the dollar and the inward turn of U.S. policy, thereby driving diversification within the international reserve system. Long-term dollar bear Stephen Jen predicts that the U.S. Dollar Index could decline significantly further. If such a scenario unfolds, it would fundamentally bolster the value of gold priced in dollars.

In other news, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history ended on Thursday after President Trump signed a funding bill to reopen the government. The House of Representatives passed the bill earlier in the day by a vote of 222 to 209, with nearly all Republicans and a handful of Democrats voting in favor. Markets anticipate that once the shutdown ends, upcoming U.S. economic data may reveal signs of labor market weakness, which could weigh on the dollar and provide short-term support for dollar-denominated commodities. On Thursday, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett stated that the October employment report will be released. Still, because no household survey was conducted that month, the unemployment rate will not be published. On the other hand, cautious commentary from Fed officials may continue to pressure gold prices. Boston Fed President Susan Collins struck a cautious tone in expressing her policy view, stating that in the current highly uncertain environment, maintaining the policy rate for some time may be appropriate to balance risks to inflation and employment. Similarly, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Wednesday and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester on Thursday also signaled a preference for keeping rates unchanged. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a probability of just over 51% that the Fed will cut the benchmark overnight lending rate by 25 basis points at its December meeting—down from 62.9% a day earlier.

Regarding the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are beginning to contract, and the candlestick has formed a doji star pattern, signaling that a potential turning point could emerge at any time. Besides, a death cross is formed with the MACD line and the signal line pulling back toward the zero axis—though they still have some distance to go. This reinforces the signal that the adjustment phase is not yet complete. The RSI stands at 62, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the market. From a daily perspective, the MACD's bullish momentum is gradually weakening, even as the price fails to make new highs—a classic sign of a bearish divergence. This increases the likelihood of a short-term downward move. Key support levels lie at the lower Bollinger Band and the 50-day EMA, at 3860 and 3935, respectively. With the RSI at 62, the price remains in bullish territory, but the recent highs are gradually lowering. Thus, it is better to sell at highs.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4190

Target price: 3800

Stop loss: 4500

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000

Industrial sector activity within the Eurozone showed a modest expansion in September following a contraction in August, according to the latest data released by Eurostat on Wednesday.

Specifically, industrial production across the Euro-area increased by 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September. This figure was a notable disappointment, falling short of the market's forecast for a 0.7% surge. For August, the data was also revised lower, showing a steeper decline of 1.1% from the initial reading of 1.2%. On an annual basis, Eurozone industrial production grew by 1.2% over the same period, slightly up from the previous 1.1%, but still substantially lower than the consensus estimate of 2.1%.

In a separate communication, the European Central Bank (ECB) Economic Bulletin reiterated its view that the Eurozone’s growth outlook remains subdued. The bulletin highlighted that domestic demand is holding up reasonably well, supported by an improvement in real incomes. However, it noted that manufacturing and exports continue to face significant pressure due to persistent global weakness and the lingering impact of trade tensions. The ECB also emphasized its expectation for wage growth to soften gradually, while inflation indicators remain close to the 2% target, stressing that future policy decisions will remain data-dependent.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the House of Representatives approved a temporary funding bill late Wednesday by a vote of 222-209. This measure restores government operations until January 30, 2026, with some key departments fully funded through September 2026. Despite this short-term solution, fears of another government shutdown remain a concern as the next deadline approaches in early February 2026.

Federal Reserve officials offered mixed signals regarding the policy trajectory. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged seeing diverse data from the economy but stressed that inflation remains unacceptably high, "around 3%." Conversely, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly adopted a more cautious tone, stating, "it is premature to say definitively that there will not be a cut or definitely that there will be a cut" in December. She underscored that the Fed's dual mandate is currently in balance but pointed to a discernible deterioration in the labor market.

Further data from the U.S. labor market paints a complex, yet generally softer, picture. Last week's ADP Employment Change report indicated that private payrolls increased by 42,000 in October, surpassing the 25,000 forecast and offsetting September's 29,000 decline. However, the Challenger Job Cuts report presented a darker scenario, revealing that U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October—the highest monthly total since 2003. This was slightly mitigated by data showing the U.S. shed an average of 11,250 private-sector jobs in the four weeks ending October 25th, a slight improvement from the 14,250 loss recorded in the prior month.

The EUR/USD pair has recently undergone a sharp, aggressive ascent, driving the price toward the upper boundary of its established bearish channel. This rapid movement has pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to the 75 level, indicating the pair has entered a state of being clearly overbought. Upon touching this channel resistance, the price has shown an immediate bearish reaction, suggesting that a significant downward correction from this level is highly probable. Furthermore, a crucial element for a potential reversal is the presence of a bearish divergence on the RSI; the recent price peak is associated with a much higher RSI reading compared to previous price highs, signaling that buying momentum is overextended and sellers may soon regain control.

Turning to key moving averages (MAs) on the 4-hour chart, the 100-period MA is positioned at 1.1577 and the 200-period MA at 1.1618. Should the price quickly fall back and breach the 200-period MA, it would serve as strong confirmation of an accelerated bearish trend. Conversely, a definitive and powerful break above the bearish channel trendline would invalidate the current bearish setup, potentially opening the door for a new sustained upward impulse.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1630

Target price: 1.1518

Stop loss: 1.1710

Validity: Nov 25, 2025 15:00:00

BTC closed 13/11 near ~$99.2k after a choppy stretch that saw closes north of $103–107k earlier in the week, with Asia trade today starting from a lower base but not accelerating the downside. Macro drivers are balanced: the Fed’s 25 bp cut on 29/10 lowered the policy range to 3.75%–4.00% but officials signaled that another move in December is “not a foregone conclusion,” keeping the dollar in a broad range instead of a trend and leaving risk assets sensitive to incremental data.

The DXY’s pullback to ~98.99 on 13/11 modestly loosens financial conditions compared with the early-week test of 100, a tailwind for non-yielding assets if it persists. The tape therefore looks like digestion rather than capitulation, with levels resetting toward $100k as traders reassess the dollar and the Fed path.

Positioning is cautious after heavy redemptions earlier this month, but not one-way. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs printed a strong $524m net inflow on 11/11 the best single day since early October before flipping back to outflows on 12/11, illustrating that larger allocators are testing the waters rather than abandoning exposure. With VIX anchored in the high-teens to low-20s regime, the absence of disorderly cross-asset stress allows crypto to trade its own levels, and dollar slippage below 99 reduces immediate headwinds.

The lesson for near-term risk is that flow volatility remains a feature, but macro conditions no longer argue for forced selling so long as DXY stays sub-99.5.

The M15 structure is rebuilding from oversold conditions. Price is rotating back toward the Bollinger mid-line after tagging the lower band near the high-$99ks; sustained holds of the 20-period mean would typically precede a retest of the upper band into the $102–104k zone.

Ichimoku shows price attempting to reclaim the cloud after spending hours below it; a clean recapture and hold of the Kumo top would convert the ~$100k–$100.5k pocket into dynamic support, with Tenkan crossing up through Kijun as the tell that momentum is turning.

Stoch (5/3/3) has curled up from mid-range; a %K cross above %D from roughly the 40–50 band on a shallow dip often foreshadows an upper-band extension. Failure to hold the cloud would risk another sweep toward ~$98.5–$99k, but with DXY easing and ETF flows mixed rather than uniformly negative, the path of least resistance on M15 favors buying controlled pullbacks. Recent closes and the 13/11 settle near $99.2k corroborate these levels.

Entry: 100,200

TP: 104,800

SL: 98,400

Spot quotes in Asia show USD/JPY holding a tight 154.3–155.0 envelope after multiple sessions defending the mid-154s. The dollar backdrop is two-sided but not hostile to USD/JPY upside: DXY has retreated to ~99.0 after failing to sustain above 100 last week, while Treasury yields are steady near 4.09% as surveyed strategists see only modest upside absent fresh inflation shocks.

On the Japan side, the latest BOJ summary of opinions flagged more board members open to a near-term hike, yet communication still emphasizes caution, which tempers aggressive yen bids. The net effect is carry support intact for USD/JPY so long as DXY doesn’t spike and US yields remain anchored.

Positioning is “risk-aware but not defensive.” The VIX sits in the 17–19 zone, consistent with orderly conditions rather than a dash for safe havens; in this regime, JPY typically underperforms high-carry peers unless BOJ surprises or equities wobble.

Political headlines in Tokyo point to gradualism rather than an abrupt tightening cycle, reinforcing a bias to fade yen strength on calm days while watching the dollar’s path around the 99 handle.

Price is spending more time above the Bollinger mid-line than below and has repeatedly defended the 20-period mean on dips into the mid-154s, a continuation pattern that often precedes fresh upper-band checks toward the 155.0 region noted on public boards.

On Ichimoku, spot is rotating on or just above the cloud, with the Kumo top aligning as dynamic support around recent pullback lows; Tenkan is attempting to hold at or slightly above Kijun on rebounds, consistent with a shallow-pullback up-swing. Stochastic has been cycling higher from mid-range, and another %K cross above %D from the 40–50 band on a minor retrace would typically cue an upper-band extension. A sustained loss of the cloud would only neutralize the bias while DXY hovers near ~99; otherwise, dips that hold the cloud/Mid-BB confluence remain buyable. Real-time dashboards corroborate today’s 154.3–155.0 range.

Entry: 154.35

TP: 155.25

SL: 154.05

The British Pound managed to hold its ground against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, hovering around ¥203.50 — close to two-week highs — despite a string of disappointing UK macroeconomic figures that once again raised fears about Britain’s fragile economic health. The currency pair’s resilience highlights that, for now, broader sentiment and yield differentials remain supportive of the Pound, even as the data paints a bleak picture of an economy losing steam.

According to preliminary data released earlier in the day, the UK economy expanded by just 0.1% in the third quarter, falling short of the 0.2% forecast and down sharply from the 0.3% growth recorded in the second quarter. On an annual basis, growth came in at 1.3%, slightly below the anticipated 1.4%, underscoring the challenges the British economy faces amid weak demand, high borrowing costs, and ongoing fiscal strain.

Manufacturing and industrial output were particularly alarming. Manufacturing production contracted by 1.7%, a much deeper fall than the 0.3% decline economists had expected, while industrial production slumped by 2.0% month-on-month, far worse than the projected 0.2% dip. The data followed a downward revision in August’s manufacturing output, which now shows a modest 0.6% increase, pointing to a broader industrial slowdown.

These figures add to mounting evidence that the UK’s post-pandemic recovery is losing momentum faster than policymakers at the Bank of England (BoE) had hoped. With inflation easing but growth faltering, pressure is intensifying on Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues to deliver a rate cut by December to prevent a deeper contraction. Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of a policy pivot, especially as consumer confidence remains subdued and the housing sector shows further signs of fatigue.

Still, the Pound’s muted reaction suggests traders are already looking past the near-term data, focusing instead on relative monetary policy differentials. While the BoE may soon shift toward easing, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains locked in ultra-loose monetary settings — a key factor limiting the Yen’s ability to recover.

In Japan, the Yen continues to face persistent weakness, failing to capitalize on the disappointing UK numbers. Recent remarks from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, urging the BoJ to maintain its accommodative stance, have further dampened speculation about a near-term policy tightening. That message effectively squashed hopes for a December rate hike, keeping the Yen under heavy selling pressure. The currency’s underperformance has been exacerbated by widening yield spreads, as Japanese investors continue seeking higher returns overseas amid stagnant domestic rates.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/JPY pair has entered a consolidation phase after rallying strongly in previous sessions. The pair remains supported above the 201.70 level — a critical line in confirming the broader bullish bias. Despite stochastic indicators signaling temporary exhaustion near overbought territory, the pair’s sideways movement suggests a phase of accumulation before another potential upward move.

If buyers manage to maintain momentum above the 203.10 region, a break above 203.95 could open the door to fresh gains targeting 204.65 and 205.50. Conversely, a drop below 202.50 might trigger a short-term pullback, but overall sentiment remains constructive as long as the pair stays above its near-term support zone.

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 203.50

STOP LOSS: 202.200

TAKE PROFIT: 205.50