Bitcoin hovers near $109,400 — Sell the pop ahead of potential false breakout?

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin trades around $109,400 after inching up ~1.3% in the past 24 hours. Despite bullish headlines, technicals on lower timeframes signal caution. A false breakout scenario near $110,000 combined with waning volatility and signs of profit-taking argue for a short bias on M15–H1...

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

108029.1

Entry Price

107500.0

109000.0

92009.0 +2454.2 +2.74%

357.8

Pips

Profit

107500.0

107671.3

Exit Price

108029.1

Entry Price

109000.0

Market Overview

Bitcoin has steadily climbed to approximately $109,400, up ~1.3% in the last day, nearing its all-time high of $111,970 set in May 2025 . The recent U.S. trade tariff tensions and anticipated Fed easing keep risk appetite elevated, benefiting BTC. Institutional inflows via ETFs remain robust, though recent consolidation between $100k‑$109k suggests overhead exhaustion.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Major inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs (over $6B in four weeks) and looming macro catalysts (tariffs, Fed minutes) fuel bullish narratives.

However, volatility is at multi-month lows “a powder‑keg setup” implying potential sharp moves, but also scope for a pullback if momentum fades.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin hovers near $109,400 — Sell the pop ahead of potential false breakout?_1

Bollinger Bands: Bands have narrowed significantly, suggesting a consolidation that often precedes a breakout but tighter bands also indicate reduced momentum.

Ichimoku Cloud: The price approaches thin cloud resistance near $110k. Tenkan-sen below Kijun reflects waning bullish momentum.

Stochastic: On M15, Stoch is entering overbought territory (>80) with bearish divergence emerging frequent sign of exhaustion.

Patterns: A potential false break at $110k market watchers note liquidity hunts and rejection near this level .

Combined, the setup shows a risk of reversal or at least a retracement, especially if BTC fails to decisively breach $110k.

Trading Recommendation

Entry (Sell): Around $108,000–110,000, ideally following confirmation via a rejection candle on M15 or H1.

Take Profit: Initial target $107,500–108,000, aligning with recent consolidation lows and mid-Bollinger band.

Stop Loss: Tight above $109,000 to protect against breakout continuation.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Australian Dollar weakened for a third straight session on Monday, dragged lower by rising expectations for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut and deteriorating global risk sentiment.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65200

Entry Price

0.63800

0.66000

0.66381 -0.00002 0.00%

47.7

Pips

Profit

0.63800

0.64723

Exit Price

0.65200

Entry Price

0.66000

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, falling for the third consecutive session as investor sentiment turned increasingly bearish ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy decision. Market participants have grown almost fully convinced that the central bank will deliver another interest rate cut at Tuesday’s meeting—its third in 2025—fueling a deeper retreat in AUD/USD, which now hovers near the psychologically significant 0.6500 handle.

During American trading hours, the AUD/USD pair slipped below 0.6550, down nearly 0.85% on the day, and continues to unwind gains from last week's eight-month high. The Aussie’s weakness is driven by a potent mix of soft domestic fundamentals, dovish central bank expectations, and an increasingly risk-off global backdrop, spurred by renewed trade tensions and safe-haven flows into the US Dollar.

Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting is widely anticipated to result in a 25-basis-point cut, taking the RBA’s Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 3.85% to 3.60%. This would mark the third rate reduction in just over six months, signaling a decisive shift from a previously hawkish stance toward a more accommodative posture. More importantly, market expectations now extend beyond July—with implied odds pricing in further cuts by August and even into the final quarter of the year, should the economic slowdown deepen.

Australia’s top lenders—Westpac, NAB, and Commonwealth Bank—have aligned with this view. Westpac’s Chief Economist Luci Ellis, formerly an RBA insider, said a July cut is “the most prudent course of action” given the softening inflation picture and weakening consumption trends. Commonwealth Bank analysts see a second rate cut in August as increasingly likely, citing CPI figures that have moderated faster than expected and a central bank that appears more willing to act pre-emptively to support growth.

Recent data backs that shift in stance. First-quarter GDP showed sluggish growth of just 0.2%, while headline annual inflation has decelerated to 2.1%—comfortably within the RBA’s 2%–3% target band. Consumer spending remains tepid, retail sales have stagnated, and business sentiment surveys continue to decline. All of this paints a picture of a cooling economy that could benefit from additional monetary stimulus.

Adding fuel to the fire is the resurgence of global trade tensions. Markets are bracing for potential fallout from the July 9 U.S. tariff deadline, with growing concerns that escalating protectionist measures—particularly those targeting key Australian trade partners such as China—could trigger second-order effects across Asia-Pacific supply chains. This has further dampened risk appetite globally, prompting investors to retreat to safer assets such as the US Dollar and US Treasuries.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to near 97.30 on Monday, aided by renewed safe-haven flows and diminished expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. With the Fed signaling patience amid still-resilient inflation and a solid labor market, the interest rate differential continues to widen in favor of the Greenback—adding pressure on yield-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD’s recent performance reinforces the bearish bias. After reaching a resistance zone last week, the pair failed to sustain its upward momentum and was met with a bearish reaction, triggered by a clear negative divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This divergence often signals waning bullish strength and precedes trend reversals.

Following this, AUD/USD exited a short-term bullish channel and breached the support provided by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), which had previously underpinned the pair during its uptrend. The RSI continues to print negative signals, despite entering oversold territory—suggesting that downside momentum may persist before a meaningful recovery.

Looking ahead, a firm breakdown below 0.6500 could expose the pair to deeper losses, with next key support levels seen at 0.6450 and then 0.6380. On the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim 0.6550 and then challenge resistance near 0.6600—both of which now serve as barriers following the technical breakdown.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6520

STOP LOSS: 0.6600

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6380

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Forex

Summary:

A recovery from here could potentially target the next psychological resistance zone around 1.1900.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17358

Entry Price

1.19000

1.17000

1.16514 +0.00088 +0.08%

35.8

Pips

Loss

1.17000

1.16999

Exit Price

1.17358

Entry Price

1.19000

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone showed a notable improvement in July, according to the latest Sentix survey, with the index climbing to 4.5 points from 0.1 in June—its highest level since February 2022. According to the report, all subcomponents of the index increased for the third consecutive month. Particularly encouraging was the rise in current situation assessments. A similar positive trend is unfolding in Germany, where expectations rose by 2.3 points to 19.8, marking their third straight gain. Meanwhile, the current situation index in Germany improved for the fifth month in a row, increasing by 8.0 points but still remaining in negative territory at -18.8.

Eurozone retail sales also provided some optimism. According to official data published by Eurostat on Monday, retail sales rose by 1.8% year-over-year in May, following a revised 2.7% increase in April. The figure exceeded market expectations of a 1.2% rise. On a monthly basis, however, retail sales declined by 0.7%, in line with forecasts, after April's figure was revised up to +0.3%.

Across the Atlantic, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to begin sending official notices to trade partners this week, outlining tariffs on their exports. Although the official deadline to implement the new tariffs is Wednesday, comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—suggesting the tariffs may not take effect until August 1—have added a layer of uncertainty and kept markets on edge.

Nearly three months after the White House announced a moratorium on tariff increases, only three countries have finalized trade deals with the U.S.: China, the U.K., and Vietnam. In China’s case, the agreement focused more on de-escalating previously imposed tariffs than reaching a comprehensive trade deal. Nonetheless, the U.S. administration continues to promote the idea that additional agreements are imminent. Market sources suggest India may be close to finalizing a mini-deal, while Bessent also mentioned progress in talks with the European Union.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held firm around 4.35% on Monday, slightly higher than Friday’s close of 4.30%. The continued strength in yields reflects diminished market expectations for near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, especially amid heightened inflation risks linked to new tariffs. While the U.S. dollar remains supported by its safe-haven appeal, elevated yields are providing fundamental backing and keeping the greenback well-bid against major currencies. A Fresh Bullish Move Could Begin From Key Support_1

A Fresh Bullish Move Could Begin From Key Support_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has found support once again around the 1.1716 level, an area that previously acted as a springboard for bullish momentum. If this level holds and the price fails to break lower, it could trigger another upward move. Adding to this bullish outlook, the RSI recently approached oversold territory, suggesting that bearish pressure may be weakening. A recovery from here could potentially target the next psychological resistance zone around 1.1900.

On the 2-hour chart, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are currently located at 1.1744 and 1.1639, respectively. A recovery above the 100-period moving average would be seen as a bullish signal, possibly marking the beginning of a broader upside correction. However, a firm break below the key support area would invalidate this bullish setup and could trigger a deeper bearish leg toward the 200-period moving average.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1737

Target price: 1.1900

Stop loss: 1.1700

Validity: Jul 18, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Gold prices extended their decline on Monday following the release of the non-farm payroll data. The structural formation of gold prices is being challenged, and it may not yet be the optimal time for bulls to enter the market.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3317.43

Entry Price

3429.00

3245.00

4208.25 +10.34 +0.25%

335.8

Pips

Profit

3245.00

3351.01

Exit Price

3317.43

Entry Price

3429.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices continued their downward trend from the previous week on Monday, breaking below the $3,300 level during the European session. The U.S. June non-farm payroll data altered market expectations regarding the Fed's policy stance, putting pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, as Trump is set to announce the latest tariff statement on Monday, trade tensions have escalated once again, driving demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset and further suppressing gold prices.

Traders are now awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday evening for fresh momentum.

The latest weekly gold survey shows that industry experts remain on the sidelines regarding the short-term outlook for gold, while retail traders have strengthened their bullish bias.

Fourteen analysts participated in the survey on gold's price trend for this week. Following gold's lackluster performance last week, Wall Street analysts adopted a relatively neutral stance. Five experts (36%) expect gold prices to rise next week, while four analysts (28%) predict a decline. The remaining five analysts (36%) believe gold prices will trade sideways next week.

Bulls and Bears Enter Sensitive Phase, but Bias Remains Toward Buying on Dips_1

Technical Analysis

On the one-hour technical chart, gold prices broke below the key neckline of $3,327 during trading last Thursday. The subsequent rebound failed to surpass $3,358, forming a head-and-shoulders top pattern on the one-hour chart, which led to a significant intraday pullback in gold prices, in line with expectations. This suggests that the correction in gold prices will continue until the target range of around $3,275.

However, if prices fall to this level, it would conflict with the head-and-shoulders bottom pattern on the four-hour chart. Therefore, the current price movement of gold is caught in a constant transition between a head-and-shoulders top and bottom, indicating that the trend remains unstable and volatility is relatively high.

Nevertheless, buying on dips remains the main theme, with the optimal entry point being after prices break below $3,275.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3272

Target Price: 3429

Stop Loss: 3245

Valid Until: July 22, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3290/3275/3256

Resistance: 3315/3328/3346

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

Gold prices hover just above the $3,300 threshold as traders digest strong U.S. jobs data, renewed Fed hawkishness, and rising global trade tensions.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3310.00

Entry Price

3250.00

3340.00

4208.25 +10.34 +0.25%

115.4

Pips

Profit

3250.00

3298.46

Exit Price

3310.00

Entry Price

3340.00

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading defensively at the start of the week, holding precariously above the $3,300 level as investors balance a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve expectations with looming trade and geopolitical developments. The yellow metal has come under renewed selling pressure following a firm U.S. jobs report and stronger Treasury yields, which are tempering hopes for near-term interest rate cuts from the Fed. At the time of writing, gold is fluctuating near $3,305 per ounce, edging closer to a key technical support zone amid broader market uncertainty.

The catalyst behind gold’s latest dip was last Thursday’s better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed the U.S. economy added more jobs than analysts had anticipated. This reinforced the narrative that the American labor market remains resilient despite higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation pressures. Consequently, traders have started to scale back bets on a July rate cut from the Federal Reserve, driving Treasury yields higher and bolstering the U.S. Dollar.

For gold, which yields no interest and typically moves inversely to real yields and the dollar, this recalibration has been a bearish development. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has climbed to near 4.40%, reflecting a market that is now beginning to price in a longer period of policy restraint by the Fed. As a result, gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement has weakened in the near term.

Still, the metal’s ability to hold above $3,300 amid rising yields suggests that downside momentum remains tentative — with traders likely awaiting further clarity from the Fed and upcoming economic data before committing to a more decisive directional bias.

While the macroeconomic backdrop is becoming less supportive for bullion, escalating geopolitical rhetoric may be providing a cushion beneath gold prices. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is widely seen as the Republican frontrunner for November’s election, issued fresh warnings over the weekend regarding tariffs on nations that support what he described as “anti-American BRICS policies.”

Although vague, these comments have re-ignited concerns over a renewed phase of U.S.-led protectionism, particularly if Trump returns to the White House. Global investors are already wary of how such policies could impact cross-border trade flows, commodities, and emerging market stability. For gold, a traditional haven in times of uncertainty, this presents a double-edged narrative — short-term downside from stronger dollar dynamics, but long-term upside risk if trade disruptions become more pronounced.

The market is also closely watching Wednesday’s looming tariff deadline — part of a scheduled review of trade restrictions under Section 301 — which could mark another flashpoint in U.S.-China relations or broader global trade policy. Any escalation could revive demand for safe-haven assets, including gold.

Monday also marked the return of U.S. market participants after the July 4th holiday, bringing a rebound in liquidity and trading volumes. However, the directional conviction in gold remains weak, with traders reluctant to place big bets ahead of key Federal Reserve speakers scheduled later in the week. Any fresh commentary on inflation or rate policy will likely dictate the next leg in gold’s trajectory.

As it stands, Fed officials have remained largely consistent in their message: inflation has cooled, but not enough to justify rate cuts just yet. This narrative continues to cap any sustained upside in gold, as real interest rates remain elevated. Until there is a tangible shift in the Fed's tone or a deterioration in U.S. data, bullion may struggle to regain its upward momentum.

Technical Analysis

Technically, gold remains under pressure on the short-term charts, having pulled back from recent highs around $3,330. Price action has slid toward the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle formation, with the $3,300 area acting as immediate support. A breakdown below this zone could expose gold to further downside toward $3,275 and potentially $3,250 — levels that coincide with previous consolidation zones and minor Fibonacci retracements.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3310

STOP LOSS: 3340

TAKE PROFIT: 3250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Japan's real wages have recorded their steepest decline since 2023, exacerbating the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy predicament.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

198.351

Entry Price

204.140

196.000

207.063 -0.037 -0.02%

94.5

Pips

Profit

196.000

199.296

Exit Price

198.351

Entry Price

204.140

Fundamentals

GBPJPY extended gains on Monday, reaching 197.98. Disappointing Japanese wage data exerted downward pressure on the yen, dampening expectations for further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Nominal wages in Japan rose just 1.0% YoY in May, sharply missing the 2.4% consensus and marking the third consecutive month of deceleration. Real wages, reflecting purchasing power, fell 2.9%—the steepest decline in nearly two years and the fifth straight month of contraction.

A breakdown showed nominal wages grew 1.0%, below April's 2.0% and forecasts. While base salaries increased 2.0% and overtime pay rose 1.0%, special payments (mainly one-off bonuses) plunged 18.7% YoY, dragging overall wage growth. Nominal wages have now risen for 41 consecutive months, yet gains still lag inflation.

Officials warned the data may not fully reflect spring wage negotiations, particularly as many surveyed small firms lack unions and lag larger corporates in raising pay. Prolonged real wage compression could pressure consumer spending and complicate the BoJ's gradual policy normalization.

Market Watch: Official figures have yet to capture the full impact of this spring's record wage deals with unions. Smaller, non-unionized firms have been slower to implement hikes, delaying their effect on aggregate wage trends.

With wage growth faltering and inflation sticky, the BoJ's task grows tougher. Meanwhile, U.S.-Japan trade talks appear stalled, with Washington threatening higher tariffs on Japanese goods. Japan's economic outlook remains challenging. We still expect the BoJ to hike rates, but weak pay trends could weaken the case.

Soft Wages and Policy Constraints Deepen Yen's Plight—Bulls May Seize the Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

GBPJPY's intraday bias stays neutral-to-positive. A break below 196.28 would trigger further consolidation. However, as long as support at 193.99 holds, further upside is expected. A breach of 198.78 would target resistance at 199.79. Beyond that, gains could extend toward the 100% Fibonacci retracement of 180.00–199.79 at 204.14.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 197.61

Target Price: 204.14

Stop Loss: 196.00

Valid Until: July 22, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 197.60/197.09/196.70

Resistance: 198.12/198.78/199.79

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

The Euro faces a triple threat of negative factors in the short term. Furthermore, its technical indicators are currently suppressed by a downward trend line, suggesting a potential short-term downward correction.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17550

Entry Price

1.16400

1.18150

1.16514 +0.00088 +0.08%

40.2

Pips

Profit

1.16400

1.17148

Exit Price

1.17550

Entry Price

1.18150

Fundamentals

The current Euro faces a confluence of three bearish factors, constituting the core drivers for going short.

Firstly, the US-EU trade conflict has entered a critical showdown phase: July 9th marks the deadline for the US to impose tariffs on EU steel and aluminum (50%) and automobiles (25%). A breakdown in negotiations would directly impact manufacturing exports, which account for 14% of the Eurozone's GDP. Despite the EU signaling concessions (accepting a 10% general tariff but seeking exemptions for key industries), the US maintains a hardline stance, with market expectations for a deal falling below 40%. The US-EU trade divergence may cause the Eurozone's retail sales to decline to 1.2% in the last quarter. Against this backdrop, the EURUSD is undergoing a correction and is likely to continue its downward trend.

Secondly, the Eurozone's weak economic data continues to intensify: Germany's May retail sales fell 1.6% month-on-month (vs. an expected +0.5%), and consumer confidence plummeted to a crisis level of -20.3, reflecting the risk of a collapse in domestic demand.

Finally, the US dollar's short-term rebound momentum is strengthening: Although the US non-farm payrolls in June showed a less-than-ideal structure (with government employment accounting for 50%), the overall data supports a cooling of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July. The rise in US Treasury yields has pushed the US dollar index above a key technical level, which may further depress the EURUSD.

Technical Analysis

As of today's European trading session, the EURUSD is trading at 1.1730 and maintaining a downward trend.

Bullish Momentum Has Temporarily Stalled, Potentially Signaling a Significant Correction_1

In the 1D timeframe, the EURUSD recently rose to the Fibonacci 0.618 extension level near 1.1810 before facing selling pressure and declining. With the high points of the candlestick chart consistently decreasing over the past five trading days, this indicates that bearish sentiment is dominating the market in the short term, and the exchange rate may undergo a more significant correction.

Bullish Momentum Has Temporarily Stalled, Potentially Signaling a Significant Correction_2

In the 4H timeframe, the recent price action of the EURUSD has established a clear downward trendline, forming resistance along the upper boundary of a descending channel. With successively lower highs and lows, the EURUSD is likely to maintain a bearish trajectory in the short term, with the initial target being a test of the 1.1620 support level.