Bearish "Head and Shoulders Top" Pattern Has Been Confirmed

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The bearish "head and shoulders top" pattern has been confirmed. A breakdown below the ascending triangle's support by the bulls could trigger a decline in Ethereum's price towards recent lows.

SELL ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

1589.25

Entry Price

1239.00

1700.00

3129.12 +102.16 +3.38%

1107.5

Pips

Loss

1239.00

1701.40

Exit Price

1589.25

Entry Price

1700.00

Fundamentals

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies remained essentially flat on Wednesday, hovering around US$2.69 trillion. Trading volume over a 24-hour period decreased by 12.8%, reaching US$77 billion.

Bitcoin experienced a marginal overnight decline of 0.05%, trading at US$84,159. Ethereum saw a drop of over 2% in the last 24 hours, with its price approximately at US$1,585.

Year-to-date, inflows into the cryptocurrency market have diminished to US$165 million, while assets under management have fallen to US$129.9 billion, as the specter of potential tariffs continues to weigh on the market.

Bitcoin-based products registered outflows of US$751 million, followed by Ethereum-based products with outflows of US$38 million.

The assets under management for Ethereum-based products total US$7.8 billion. The assets under management for multi-asset investment portfolios stands at US$5.9 billion. Furthermore, Solana-based products record the assets under management of US$1.1 billion.

Moreover, ETH investors who had staked tokens in staking protocols are beginning to show signs of exhaustion after liquidating their staked assets. Over the past five days, the total value of staked Ethereum has decreased by over 120,000 ETH, equivalent to approximately US$192 million.

The reduction in the total amount of staked tokens indicates that investors are seeking to reallocate assets. If these unstaked tokens enter the open market, it could exert further downward pressure on ETH.

The outflow of staked funds aligns with the rapid increase in Ethereum exchange supply over the past two weeks. Since the beginning of April, the ETH supply on exchanges has increased by nearly 400,000 ETH, leading to a brief dip in price below US$1,500 last week.

The increase in cryptocurrency exchange supply suggests rising selling pressure and could trigger a corresponding price reaction.

Bearish "Head and Shoulders Top" Pattern Has Been Confirmed_1

Technical Analysis

Over the past four hours, Ethereum's price has tested the neckline of a "head and shoulders top" pattern, currently attempting to maintain gains above US$1,600. A breach of the US$1,662 level would allow bulls to test resistance near US$1,688, reinforced by a key descending trendline. A sustained break above this resistance could see bulls targeting the US$1,800 psychological level.

Conversely, the neckline of the bearish "head and shoulders top" pattern has been triggered, with current momentum appearing weak; the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic indicators have largely remained above neutral levels since Friday; however, a recent break below the neutral level could accelerate bearish momentum.

Failure to break US$1,662 on any subsequent rally could see a decline towards the critical support at US$1,522. A break below this support would force bulls to defend the key level of US$1,412.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1600, 1630

Target Price: 1239

Stop Loss: 1700

Valid Until: May 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1540, 1472, 1385

Resistance: 1662, 1670, 1690

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The USD/CHF currency pair extended its decline in Wednesday’s Asian session, weighed down by a weaker US Dollar amid growing recession fears and dovish Federal Reserve expectations.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.81000

Entry Price

0.78000

0.83000

0.80312 -0.00143 -0.18%

46.8

Pips

Profit

0.78000

0.80532

Exit Price

0.81000

Entry Price

0.83000

The US Dollar is back under pressure, and the USD/CHF currency pair is bearing the brunt of it. After a modest recovery earlier this week, the pair came under fresh selling pressure during Wednesday’s Asian session, sliding back toward the mid-0.8100 just a hair above Friday’s ten-year low. With the bearish momentum showing no signs of abating, the current macroeconomic landscape paints a bleak short-term outlook for the greenback while reinforcing the long-term resilience of the Swiss Franc.

At the core of the latest decline is a deteriorating outlook for the US economy. Market sentiment is increasingly shifting toward a belief that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to cut interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated. Investors now see the possibility of up to 100 basis points in rate cuts by the end of 2025—a seismic shift from earlier projections. This dovish re-pricing has sapped demand for the Dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering near its lowest levels since April 2022.

Recession fears are clearly mounting. Recent soft patches in US economic data, ranging from jobless claims to housing market indicators, have sparked concerns that the world’s largest economy may be heading toward a slowdown. The labor market, while still historically tight, has shown signs of fatigue. Combined with tightening credit conditions and slowing consumer spending, the probability of a technical recession is now squarely on the radar of both policymakers and investors alike.

The political landscape hasn’t helped either. The brief optimism following former President Donald Trump’s announcement to pause broad reciprocal tariffs for 90 days quickly fizzled out. Instead of easing nerves, the announcement injected a new layer of ambiguity into an already fragile geopolitical setting. Trump’s erratic stance on trade—especially toward China—has only added fuel to the fire, rattling markets and exacerbating uncertainty over the direction of global trade policy.

Against this backdrop, investors are doing what they’ve always done in times of turbulence: flocking to safe-haven assets. Chief among them is the Swiss Franc, which continues to attract inflows as a stable alternative. Switzerland’s long-standing reputation for political neutrality, sound fiscal management, and robust banking system makes the CHF a perennial safe-haven play, particularly in risk-off environments. This renewed global appetite for safety has underpinned the Franc and further weighed on USD/CHF.

From a broader perspective, the pair’s sustained downtrend, which began after reaching a year-to-date high in January, appears to be firmly intact. Barring a dramatic reversal in macroeconomic conditions or a hawkish pivot from the Fed, the path of least resistance remains clearly tilted to the downside.

Looking ahead, we will be laser-focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks, which could shed light on the central bank’s policy path. Any signs that the Fed is leaning more dovishly than the market already expects could reinforce the current bearish narrative for the Dollar.

Also on deck is the latest US retail sales report, which will offer fresh insight into the health of the American consumer. A disappointing print could further validate fears of a slowdown, adding to the pressure on the USD and accelerating the decline in USD/CHF.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the USD/CHF’s intraday price action reflects the dominance of a well-entrenched bearish trend. The pair is tracking alongside a descending minor trend line on the short-term chart, and recent price action is beginning to diverge negatively from the RSI, which has pulled back from overbought levels. This suggests that downside momentum is building and that the pair may be gearing up for another leg lower.

Critically, the 0.8100 level is acting as near-term support, but any decisive break below this threshold could open the floodgates toward the 0.7800 region—a level not seen since 2011. Such a move would underscore the severity of the USD’s fundamental weakness and the growing strength of the CHF in this risk-averse environment.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8100

STOP LOSS: 0.8300

TAKE PROFIT: 0.7800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The EUR/GBP cross edged higher to around 0.8565 in early European trading on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker Pound following softer-than-expected UK inflation data.

BUY EURGBP

Close Time

CLOSED

0.85800

Entry Price

0.87400

0.84800

0.87453 +0.00137 +0.16%

37.6

Pips

Profit

0.84800

0.86176

Exit Price

0.85800

Entry Price

0.87400

The Euro gained ground against the British Pound on Wednesday, with the EUR/GBP pair trading near 0.8565 during the early European session. The move was fueled by disappointing inflation data out of the UK, which suggested the Bank of England (BoE) may be inching closer to an interest rate cut of its own, while the European Central Bank (ECB) remains on a steady path toward monetary easing.

According to data released by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-on-year in March, easing from February’s 2.8% and coming in softer than the market’s 2.7% expectation. More notably, the monthly CPI figure climbed just 0.3%, a deceleration from February’s 0.4% increase and below the consensus forecast of another 0.4% print.

Core CPI—which strips out volatile food and energy prices—also remained stable at 3.4% YoY, matching expectations but down slightly from the previous 3.5%. These figures further reinforce the narrative that UK inflation pressures are gradually waning, reducing the urgency for the BoE to maintain its high-interest-rate stance.

The British Pound responded swiftly and negatively to the data, as traders began to price in a growing likelihood that the BoE could join other major central banks in easing monetary policy later this year. While the Bank has adopted a cautious tone in recent months, Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues have repeatedly emphasized the importance of incoming data. With CPI now trending closer to the 2% target, calls for a rate cut around mid-year are becoming louder.

From a market perspective, these inflation numbers increase the probability of a rate cut by the BoE in the summer. While wage growth remains a complicating factor, the inflation story is clearly moving in the right direction for doves on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Meanwhile, across the Channel, the ECB is widely anticipated to reduce its deposit rate by 25 basis points at its Thursday meeting, bringing the benchmark down to 2.25%. This would mark the third rate cut in the current cycle, reinforcing the bank’s pivot toward monetary easing amid slowing economic momentum in the Eurozone.

Expectations for the ECB move are already fully priced in, according to euro area swaps markets. A further dovish signal could materialize if Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data due later on Wednesday aligns with forecasts or comes in weaker.

Rabobank's senior macro strategist, Bas van Geffen, recently highlighted short-term uncertainties such as global trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions, including former U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, as key variables in the ECB's decision-making calculus. These headwinds, along with softening inflation in the bloc, make a rate cut not just likely, but necessary from a policy perspective.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the EUR/GBP pair appears to be stabilizing after retreating from levels above 0.8700 earlier this month. The hourly chart shows the pair in a consolidation phase, recovering modestly after testing support near 0.8520.

Currently, the cross is trading just below the 50-hour simple moving average, with a minor uptick observed after reclaiming the 0.8540 handle. The next resistance level looms at around 0.8570, where a bearish trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.8738 to 0.8518 downswing intersect.

A decisive break above 0.8570 could open the door for a more meaningful recovery, with the next key resistance at 0.8630—a level coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Should bulls manage to push through that ceiling, upside momentum could extend toward 0.8685 and potentially as high as 0.8740.

Conversely, failure to hold above immediate support at 0.8520 may lead to renewed downside pressure. A break below 0.8500 would invalidate the short-term bullish setup, exposing the cross to further losses toward the 0.8360 zone, a level last seen in early February.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURGBP

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8580

STOP LOSS: 0.8480

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8740

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

The crude oil market remains trapped in a stalemate of supply-demand imbalance.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

61.378

Entry Price

46.500

63.900

60.028 +0.219 +0.37%

252.2

Pips

Loss

46.500

63.910

Exit Price

61.378

Entry Price

63.900

Fundamentals

Yesterday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest report, forecasting global oil demand to grow by 730,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, far below last month's prediction of 1.03 million b/d and marking the slowest growth rate in five years. This downward revision stems primarily from punitive tariffs imposed by the U.S. on major trading partners. The cut exceeds even the downward production adjustments announced by OPEC+ on Monday, further amplifying concerns over supply-demand imbalances.

Today, the White House announced that tariffs on Chinese goods imported to the U.S. have risen to a maximum of 245% due to China's retaliatory trade measures. This escalation intensifies U.S.-China trade friction, directly disrupting bilateral trade flows and global supply chain efficiency. Rising trade tensions could lead to a sustained contraction in new export orders for Chinese manufacturing, further weakening China's crude oil import momentum amid slowing Q1 GDP growth.

On the supply side, the oversupply trend is worsening. While OPEC+ plans to increase output by 411,000 b/d starting in May, actual production may far exceed quotas. Data shows Russia's March output reached 10.5 million b/d, with Kazakhstan exceeding its quota by 390,000 b/d, pushing total incremental supply beyond 600,000 b/d.

In general, the crude oil market remains stuck in a supply-demand stalemate, with prices likely to stay under pressure.

Technical Analysis

Based on the daily chart, WTI starts the overbought rebound and surges to the pressure level of 62.5. Meanwhile, it also reaches the 10-day SMA and forms a resonance, adding difficulty to move upward. Short−term upside momentum faces headwinds. If WTI exhibits weakening signals, it is extremely likely to depreciate further. But if WTI crosses over 62.5 and ascends, it may test the overhead pressure level at 65.00.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 61.40

Target price: 46.50

Stop loss: 63.90

Valid Until: April 30, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 54.75/50.00

Resistance: 62.76/65.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

If bulls begin to step in at this level, it could mark the start of a renewed upward move, aligning with the prevailing bullish trend.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.12999

Entry Price

1.14280

1.11700

1.16640 +0.00214 +0.18%

65.9

Pips

Profit

1.11700

1.13658

Exit Price

1.12999

Entry Price

1.14280

The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as recession concerns—partly fueled by ongoing U.S. tariff measures—continue to weigh on the eurozone outlook. Hadrien Camatte, Senior Economist at Natixis, suggested that the ECB could lower all three of its key interest rates during April's policy meeting.

The central bank had already lowered rates for a second consecutive time in March, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.5%. A further cut would push it to 2.25%.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the latest Empire State Manufacturing Index showed notable improvement, climbing by 11.9 points in April to -8.1, up from March’s reading of -20. This was the best figure in two months and surpassed expectations, which had projected a smaller recovery to -14.5.

Despite the improvement, business activity in New York State remained in contraction territory. Survey participants reported slight declines in both new orders and shipments. Delivery times stayed largely unchanged, while supply availability deteriorated further. Inventory levels, however, continued to rise.

“Following a sharp drop last month, activity contracted only slightly in April,” noted Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “Prices paid and received rose at the fastest pace in over two years. For the first time since 2022, firms expressed clear pessimism about future conditions.”

Elsewhere, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed fears of a financial emergency, reassuring markets that the U.S. economy remains on stable ground. He emphasized that concerns over an imminent crisis were largely unfounded and reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to “fair” trade negotiations. These discussions, according to the Trump administration, are necessary steps to help balance the federal budget.

Federal Reserve officials also delivered a more cautious message. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that the central bank is still some distance from achieving its 2% inflation target. His remarks cooled recent speculation around early rate cuts, pointing instead to persistent inflationary pressures that continue to complicate the Fed's policy outlook.

Similarly, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned that inflation could reaccelerate even as the labor market shows signs of weakening. He emphasized the need for a data-driven approach and highlighted the risks of inflation rising independently of employment trends. Musalem also noted that anchoring long-term inflation expectations is essential, especially in the face of uncertain fiscal and trade dynamics.

“There’s substantial uncertainty regarding the timing and cumulative impact of shifting trade, immigration, and regulatory policies,” Musalem stated during a speech in Hot Springs, Arkansas. “We have to remain open to the possibility that inflation could pick up even if labor conditions continue to deteriorate.” Bullish Trend Could Resume If Buyers Defend Support_1

Bullish Trend Could Resume If Buyers Defend Support_1

Technical Analysis

EURUSD has pulled back toward key support at 1.1273, hovering just above the 100-period moving average on the 1-hour chart, currently around 1.1265. If this support zone holds, it could provide a platform for buyers to re-enter the market and potentially drive the pair higher toward local resistance near 1.1428. A breakout above that level could confirm a continuation of the broader bullish trend, especially if a new local high is formed.

From a momentum standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dipped to 33, edging closer to oversold territory. This suggests that bearish momentum may be fading, and a reversal could be in sight. If bulls begin to step in at this level, it could mark the start of a renewed upward move, aligning with the prevailing bullish trend.

However, if the support fails and the pair breaks lower, the 200-period moving average could come into focus as the next downside target.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1293

Target price: 1.1428

Stop loss: 1.1170

Validity: Apr 23, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Forex

Summary:

If sellers regain control, potential downside targets could include the 0.6200 region, which coincides with a nearby support level.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.63560

Entry Price

0.62000

0.64500

0.66462 +0.00079 +0.12%

6.1

Pips

Loss

0.62000

0.63621

Exit Price

0.63560

Entry Price

0.64500

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index improved significantly in April, rising by 11.9 points to -8.1 from March’s -20 reading, marking its best result in two months. This figure came in stronger than expected, beating market forecasts that anticipated a more modest rebound to -14.5.

According to the official release, business activity in New York State continued to decline slightly in April, although the pace of contraction was notably softer than in the previous month. Respondents to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated modest decreases in new orders and shipments. Delivery times held steady, while supply availability worsened. Inventory levels, on the other hand, continued to climb.

“Following a steep decline last month, business activity contracted slightly in New York State in April,” said Richard Deitz, economic research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “Input and selling prices rose at the fastest pace in more than two years. For the first time since 2022, firms turned notably pessimistic about the outlook.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a calm assessment of the broader economic landscape, stating that the country is not even close to facing any sort of emergency scenario—something he believes was never truly at risk. He reaffirmed the administration’s aim to pursue "fair" trade agreements with countries seeking tariff exemptions, which the Trump administration has consistently framed as necessary for fiscal rebalancing.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reinforced a cautious stance on policy, noting on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve still has a significant way to go before achieving its 2% inflation goal. His remarks dampened investor expectations of imminent rate cuts, as inflationary pressures continue to muddy the path ahead.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also struck a wary tone, warning that inflation could accelerate even if labor market conditions continue to weaken. He emphasized that such a divergence would require careful monitoring and a flexible policy approach. Musalem stressed that long-term inflation expectations must remain firmly anchored, especially with ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and broader economic policy shifts.

“There’s still considerable uncertainty about the overall timing and effects of evolving trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies,” Musalem noted in a speech delivered in Hot Springs, Arkansas. “We can’t rule out a scenario in which inflation picks up while labor market conditions deteriorate.”

Australia is also grappling with rising economic uncertainty. Treasurer Jim Chalmers recently cautioned that the country could face “major hits” to both its own growth and that of China—a key trading partner. His remarks hint at growing concern over Australia’s long-term economic resilience. Additionally, a more dovish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)—possibly driven by deteriorating trade conditions—could further pressure the Australian dollar in the coming months.

Historically, the Australian dollar tends to underperform when the economic outlook for China darkens, due to Australia's heavy reliance on exports to the Chinese market. Overbought Conditions and Resistance May Invite Bearish Pressure_1

Overbought Conditions and Resistance May Invite Bearish Pressure_1

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD is once again approaching a well-established resistance level at 0.6392—a zone it has failed to breach since March 18. The pair last neared this level on April 3, before reversing sharply to the downside and ultimately reaching a local low of 0.5916 by April 8. This resistance may again attract bearish pressure unless the bulls manage to break through with strong momentum.

Adding to the caution, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently touched 71, pushing into overbought territory. This suggests that bullish momentum may be running out of steam, increasing the likelihood of a corrective move. If sellers regain control, potential downside targets could include the 0.6200 region, which coincides with a nearby support level.

Additionally, the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart are situated close by, at 0.6227 and 0.6261 respectively—both of which may serve as dynamic support if a pullback develops. On the flip side, a decisive breakout above 0.6392 could invalidate the bearish outlook and open the door for further gains.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6354

Target price: 0.6200

Stop loss: 0.6450

Validity: Apr 23, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The USDCAD continued to trade near six-month lows on Tuesday. Oversold indicators may trigger a market rebound, with short-term resistance between 1.3965 and 1.4000, before a likely resumption of the downtrend.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.39618

Entry Price

1.34100

1.41850

1.38155 +0.00008 +0.01%

122.6

Pips

Profit

1.34100

1.38392

Exit Price

1.39618

Entry Price

1.41850

Fundamentals

As the market anticipates this week's Canadian inflation data and the Bank of Canada's (BOC) interest rate decision, the USDCAD found support near the six-month low of 1.3828, established on Monday. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) indicates oversold conditions, suggesting a potential short-term rebound.

Statistics Canada is set to release the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report later today. Market consensus projects a slight uptick in inflation for March, with both the headline inflation rate expected to rise from 2.6% to 2.7%, and the median and trimmed core inflation measures anticipated to increase to 3.0%. In an absence of a significant downward surprise in inflation, the market may reinforce the prevailing view that the BOC will hold interest rates steady tomorrow.

The BOC is currently facing a challenging landscape, having already implemented 225 basis points of rate cuts. Compounding this, the CPI is showing signs of upward movement. Inflationary pressures could intensify in the coming months due to retaliatory tariffs imposed by Canada on certain U.S. goods.

Therefore, investors will be closely monitoring Tuesday's CPI report, as the BOC may consider another rate cut the following day. Such a move could trigger a minor retracement in the USDCAD.

Nevertheless, Canadian inflation and the BOC should be secondary drivers of global equity markets and the Canadian dollar's sentiment. We anticipate the USDCAD to trade approximately 2% below its short-term fair value. This aligns with the risk premium inherent in the U.S. dollar, stemming from recent market volatility.

We do not expect a rapid decline in this risk premium; therefore, the USDCAD is likely to remain below 1.4000 in the near term. Ultimately, the BOC maintaining its current interest rate will support the Canadian dollar's appreciation, even if it doesn't fundamentally alter the market dynamics.

USDCAD: A Short-term Rebound Is Possible, but a Subsequent Decline Remains the More Probable Scenario_1

Technical Analysis

Ahead of the data release later today, the CADUSD has consolidated its gains. However, in the 1D timeframe, it indicates that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has lost downward momentum in the oversold zone and is now showing signs of a rebound. The USDCAD is currently experiencing some consolidation above the temporary low of 1.3827. The outlook remains bearish as long as the 1.4150 support level holds as resistance. A break below 1.3827 would resume the decline from 1.4791, potentially leading to a drop towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3773, measured from 1.4791 to 1.4150.

Currently, this view is supported by the USDCAD's position below all SMAs, with the 20-day SMA accelerating downwards, breaking below the flat 100-day SMA, both of which are well above current levels. Overall, the downtrend is likely to persist after a short-term adjustment.