The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reiterated its decision to maintain the policy rate at 0% during its December meeting, citing broadly stable medium-term inflationary pressures. The central bank emphasized that its current monetary stance remains appropriate for anchoring inflation within the price stability range while providing necessary support to the domestic economy. Furthermore, the SNB reaffirmed its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market should conditions necessitate such action.

While inflation has dipped slightly in recent months, the SNB noted that the overall outlook has not shifted sufficiently to warrant a policy adjustment at this stage. Consumer price inflation decelerated to 0.0% in November; however, both short- and long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored within the SNB's definition of price stability.

Domestically, the SNB highlighted a period of moderate economic momentum, as overall growth remained subdued through the third quarter. Despite this softening activity, the central bank observed tentative signs of improvement heading into the year-end, bolstered by a marginal recovery in the global context and diminishing trade-related uncertainties. Nevertheless, the SNB’s Quarterly Bulletin pointed toward a cooling labor market, with employment growth stagnating in Q3 and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rising to approximately 3.0% in November.

The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, holding the Deposit Facility at 2.00%, the Main Refinancing Operations rate at 2.15%, and the Marginal Lending Facility at 2.40%, in full alignment with market consensus.

In the accompanying policy statement, the ECB Governing Council reaffirmed its commitment to stabilizing inflation at the 2% medium-term target. Policymakers underscored a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting strategy, noting that future rate paths will depend on incoming financial data and the underlying strength of price pressures. During the subsequent press conference, President Christine Lagarde clarified that neither rate hikes nor cuts were discussed, emphasizing that the bank cannot provide explicit forward guidance given the current climate of uncertainty. While describing the Eurozone as resilient, she cautioned that a challenging global trade environment is likely to dampen growth.

The EUR/CHF pair has recently retraced to the 0.9304 support level, a zone that saw a rapid bullish rejection in recent price action. This initial resilience provides early signals that the pair may be entering a corrective phase to the upside. Given the strength of the prevailing primary uptrend, the current bearish move is viewed as a technical retracement rather than a trend reversal. Should the support hold, the immediate objective for bulls sits at the 0.9350 resistance level.

From a technical perspective, the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 4-hour chart are positioned at 0.9302 and 0.9288, respectively. The price has successfully reclaimed the 200-period MA, which is expected to provide dynamic support for a bounce. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently touched the 28 level, signaling oversold conditions.

This lower reading increases the probability of a bullish reversal from this cluster. However, traders should note that a decisive break and close below the 0.9304 support would invalidate this bullish setup and suggest a deeper correction.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.9305

Target price: 0.9350

Stop loss: 0.9280

Validity: Dec 30, 2025 15:00:00

The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its key interest rates for the fourth consecutive meeting, keeping the Deposit Facility at 2.00%, the Main Refinancing Operations rate at 2.15%, and the Marginal Lending Facility at 2.40%, fully aligning with market expectations.

In its accompanying policy statement, the ECB Governing Council reaffirmed its steadfast commitment to ensuring inflation stabilizes at its 2% medium-term target. Policymakers emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, noting that future rate path decisions will hinge on incoming economic and financial data, the evolving inflation outlook, and the underlying strength of price pressures.

During the post-meeting press conference, President Christine Lagarde clarified that there was no discussion regarding rate hikes or cuts during this session. She underscored that the central bank cannot provide explicit forward guidance due to current levels of heightened uncertainty. Lagarde described the Eurozone economy as resilient but cautioned that a challenging global trade environment is likely to stifle growth. Furthermore, she noted that while the inflation outlook remains more uncertain than usual, a strengthening Euro could eventually act as a tailwind to help alleviate inflationary pressures.

U.S. labor market data presented a complex, mixed narrative this week. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 224,000, edging out the 225,000 forecast and improving upon the previous 237,000. However, Continuing Claims rose to 1.897 million—higher than the previous 1.83 million—while the four-week moving average ticked up slightly to 217,500.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller remarked on Wednesday that policymakers are in no rush to ease policy aggressively, suggesting a cautious approach as long as inflation remains above target. He estimated that interest rates could eventually be lowered toward a neutral level, which he places approximately 50–100 basis points below current rates. Meanwhile, the search for the next Fed Chair continues; President Donald Trump indicated a preference for White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett or former Governor Kevin Warsh, though Governor Waller is also reportedly being interviewed for the role.

Amidst these shifts, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed optimism regarding the latest CPI data, suggesting that if the trend holds, it could pave the way for more cuts in 2026. Conversely, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic labeled the latest employment figures a "mixed bag," maintaining his preference for steady rates as firms continue to pass rising input costs on to consumers to protect profit margins.

The EUR/USD pair appears to be nearing the conclusion of a technical correction, finding firm support around the 1.1707 zone—a level that successfully repelled downward pressure in recent sessions. This failure to breach lower support, coupled with a bullish rejection from this area, suggests the path of least resistance is back to the upside. The primary objective for this potential new leg is the 0.618 Fibonacci expansion at 1.1821. This projection is significant as it represents a classic market structure target where impulsive moves often culminate.

On the 1-hour chart, the 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are currently situated at 1.1741 and 1.1710, respectively. The 200-period MA is particularly noteworthy; it has recently functioned as a critical dynamic support, acting as a springboard for price action. Given that this same moving average served as a catalyst for a rally between December 8th and 10th, a repetition of this technical pattern could provide the necessary momentum to launch a new bullish leg toward the 1.1821 target.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1722

Target price: 1.1820

Stop loss: 1.1680

Validity: Dec 30, 2025 15:00:00

Spot gold extended its rally, underpinned by expectations of additional U.S. monetary easing, persistent geopolitical risk, and robust investor demand.

Traders are now squarely focused on Thursday’s November CPI release; any further sign of disinflation would likely compress Treasury yields, weaken the dollar, and open the door for gold to challenge new all-time peaks.

Despite mixed U.S. labor-market data, the swaps market still prices in two 25 bp Fed rate cuts by 1H 2026. Separately, safe-haven inflows remain elevated after President Trump ordered the seizure of sanctioned Venezuelan tankers, while tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East continue to simmer.

Momentum waned ahead of the 4381 swing high. A decisive break below 4257 would confirm a bearish reversal and expose a deeper retracement. A subsequent violation of the short-term ascending channel would mark the third leg of the corrective sequence from 4381. Conversely, a clean breakout above 4381 reinstates the primary uptrend.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4375

Target Price: 4065

Stop Loss: 4415

Valid Until: 03 Jan 2026, 23:55:00

Support: 4307/4297/4281

Resistance Levels: 4342/4353/4365

The consensus expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to resume its easing cycle, lowering Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 %. The move should be interpreted as a return to the BoE’s established quarterly cadence rather than a strategic pivot. Since mid-2024 the Bank has trimmed rates once per quarter; the November meeting was deferred only because of the Autumn Budget.

The salient questions now are (i) whether the easing cycle continues and (ii) how far it can ultimately run. The answer to the first is almost certainly “yes”; the second remains opaque. Headline inflation has cooled markedly but is still above target, keeping policymakers vigilant over the extent of further accommodation.

This week’s softer-than-expected employment and CPI prints may begin to erode the resistance of the MPC’s more hawkish cohort. That shift should be reflected in today’s vote. The baseline forecast is a 5-4 split in favour of a cut, but a 6-3 outcome is plausible. While such a margin would modestly weigh on the pound, speculative positioning is already markedly short GBP. Traders will scrutinise (a) whether any dissent favours unchanged policy and (b) whether a clear majority for easing emerges.

A lopsided vote would strengthen expectations of a follow-up cut in February. This would merely realign policy with the Bank’s quarterly easing schedule—coinciding with the first meeting of the quarter and the publication of fresh forecasts—rather than herald a more aggressive stance. In that scenario, investors would be forced to re-price the pace of the cycle, curbing dovish bets and possibly triggering a short-covering rally in sterling and gilt yields.

Intraday GBPUSD remains neutral, consolidating below 1.3455. On the upside, a sustained break above 1.3455 would extend the rebound from 1.3008; a decisive clearance of the 1.3470 resistance opens a retest of the 1.3787 high. Conversely, a daily close beneath the 55-day EMA (now 1.3295) would signal the rebound is complete; a fall through the 1.3008 support would revive the entire corrective structure from the 1.3787 peak.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3310

Target Price: 1.3615

Stop Loss: 1.3240

Valid Until: January 3, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 1.3311/1.3288/1.3247

Resistance Levels: 1.3369/1.3456/1.3490

In today's BOE monetary policy meeting, market expectations widely anticipate a rate cut from 4.00% to 3.75%, driven by the unexpected decline in UK November inflation to 3.2%. Consequently, the market has nearly fully priced in a rate reduction. If the BOE proceeds as expected, the immediate result will be a contraction in the nominal yield spread of GBP. More critically, market attention will shift to the central bank's forward guidance—if the statement emphasizes a "cautious, one-time, or limited" rate cut, the pound may quickly stabilize or rebound. Conversely, if the statement conveys a more dovish outlook, the pound could face sustained downside pressure.

Ultimately, the market's reaction today depends not only on whether the rate is cut but also on the voting margin, tone of the statement, and subsequent release of the dot plot or economic projections, which will determine the medium- to short-term trajectory of the GBPUSD exchange rate.

Technically, the GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.3370 with sideways consolidation. The key resistance zone lies between 1.3405 and 1.3455; a significant breakout above this range, sustained by increased volume, could target a rally toward 1.3600. On the downside, the critical support levels are established between 1.3300 and 1.3200; a breach below this support may accelerate a retreat toward 1.3100 to 1.3000.

Short-term technical indicators indicate that the 4H RSI has shifted from neutral to bearish, while the MA10 has crossed below the MA20, creating a death cross that further confirms bearish momentum. Should dovish signals emerge from fundamental news accompanied by rising volume, the technical setup would quickly validate bearish strength. Conversely, if policymakers maintain a cautious tone despite signaling rate cuts, it could trigger a near-term oversold bounce.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.3370

Target Price: 1.3020

Stop Loss: 1.3460

Valid Until: December 31, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 1.3300, 1.3200

Resistance: 1.3405, 1.3455

The Canadian dollar, which is closely tied to commodity prices, faces challenges due to falling oil prices, potentially leading to strength in the USD/CAD currency pair. As of this writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading lower at around $56.3 per barrel. However, intensifying geopolitical tensions may limit the downside for oil. The United States has ordered a complete halt to all maritime traffic involving sanctioned tankers traveling to and from Venezuela. Meanwhile, Washington is pushing for tougher sanctions on Russia's energy sector to support peace negotiations regarding Ukraine, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies. Despite the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s forecast of an unprecedented supply glut in the global crude market, Canadian oil sands producers are planning to ramp up output in 2026. Led by Cenovus Energy Inc., major Canadian oil companies have generally projected further production increases in their latest guidance. Cenovus alone expects an 18% rise in output, primarily driven by its acquisition of MEG Energy Corp. and expansion projects at existing assets. Canadian drillers are accelerating production to take advantage of spare pipeline capacity to export terminals on the Pacific coast. The Trans Mountain Pipeline system, whose expansion was completed last year, is not expected to operate at full capacity until 2027. In parallel, Enbridge Inc. is advancing expansion plans to enhance the transport of oil sands crude to the U.S. market. The anticipated increase in Canadian crude supply could exacerbate global supply-demand imbalances, contributing to a sharp decline in U.S. benchmark crude prices this year. As the world's fourth-largest crude oil producer, Canada's influence in the global energy landscape is enhancing steadily.

The USDX is currently hovering around 98, largely flat intraday, as traders await the release of U.S. consumer inflation data before making fresh bets. The key U.S. CPI report is due later in the North American trading session, and markets will scrutinize it closely for clues about the Federal Reserve's future policy direction — a critical factor for the next move in the greenback. Ahead of the data release, expectations for dovish Fed policy have kept dollar bulls cautious and placed downward pressure on the CPI outlook. Although the Fed remains cautious about the economic outlook, signs of labor market weakness have led traders to price in the possibility of two more rate cuts by 2026. Additionally, there is speculation that the incoming Fed Chair will adopt a dovish stance and cut rates further under political pressure. In fact, President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that the next Fed Chair would be someone who firmly believes in cutting interest rates significantly. However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller — one of five potential successors to Jerome Powell — emphasized to President Trump the importance of central bank independence, which in turn provides some support for the dollar. Nevertheless, broader fundamentals appear to favor the bears, suggesting the dollar is more likely to depreciate.

Based on the daily chart, USD/CAD has broken below the EMA200 and is moving along the Bollinger Lower Band. However, a bullish engulfing pattern has emerged, breaking through the descending channel, indicating a potential short-term rebound. After a death cross, both the signal and MACD lines have fallen below the zero axis, signaling a bearish trend. The RSI stands at 32, entering oversold territory, confirming the ongoing downtrend with potential rebounds. In the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the moving averages are converging. Following a MACD golden cross, the signal and MACD lines have pulled back near the zero axis, indicating that a trend reversal could happen soon. Resistance levels are located near the EMA50 and EMA200 at 1.381 and 1.392, respectively. The RSI is at 44, reflecting relatively pessimistic market sentiment. Therefore, it is better to buy now and sell later.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.376

Target price: 1.42

Stop loss: 1.357

Support: 1.373/1.37/1.357

Resistance: 1.414/1.42/1.44