AUD/USD Surges to Yearly Highs as Soft US Inflation Data and Trade Optimism Undermine Dollar

Economic

Summary:

The Australian Dollar has extended its rally, pushing AUD/USD to new 2025 highs near 0.6550, as dovish U.S. inflation data sparks Fed rate cut bets and optimism around U.S.-China trade talks bolsters risk sentiment.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65300

Entry Price

0.66500

0.64800

0.66437 +0.00054 +0.08%

50.0

Pips

Loss

0.64800

0.64795

Exit Price

0.65300

Entry Price

0.66500

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its impressive climb this week, with AUD/USD extending gains for a third consecutive session on Wednesday to breach new yearly highs near the 0.6550 level. The rally has been underpinned by renewed U.S. Dollar weakness following softer-than-expected inflation data and cautious optimism surrounding trade negotiations between the United States and China.

This surge marks a notable shift in sentiment toward the Aussie, which has benefited from both domestic resilience and shifting expectations on U.S. monetary policy. As market participants reassess the Federal Reserve’s path, the AUD has emerged as a relative outperformer among G10 currencies.

The immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD advance came from the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which showed inflation slowing more than anticipated. Headline inflation rose by 2.4% in the year to May, below both the market consensus and prior readings. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also decelerated to 2.8% annually — a full tenth below estimates.

This undershoot in inflation data amplified market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with traders now seeing over a 65% probability of easing, according to interest rate futures. The result was a sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields and broad-based selling pressure on the Greenback.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the currency against a basket of peers, fell to its lowest levels in nearly two months. The move highlights growing investor conviction that the Fed may finally pivot toward policy accommodation, after more than a year of hawkish rhetoric.

In a separate but complementary development, reports emerged suggesting that U.S. and Chinese officials had made progress in negotiations related to rare earth minerals during meetings in London. While details remain scarce and any agreement is yet to be formally confirmed by Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, markets viewed the talks as a de-escalation signal — one that helped lift risk sentiment and supported currencies like the Aussie that are sensitive to global trade flows.

Rare earths, critical in the production of advanced electronics and military equipment, have long been a sticking point in the U.S.-China trade standoff. An easing in tensions surrounding this key sector could pave the way for broader cooperation or at the very least, a pause in tariff escalations.

Domestically, the economic calendar was light, with no tier-one data releases out of Australia on Wednesday. This left traders looking ahead to Thursday’s release of the Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Expectations — a monthly survey that could offer clues on domestic price pressures and influence Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations.

Although the RBA remains firmly in a holding pattern for now, sticky inflation could limit its ability to follow other central banks into dovish territory. For now, however, global macro factors — not local data — are steering the AUD/USD trajectory.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD continues to show strength, trading firmly within a bullish channel on the short-term chart. Price action has managed to hold above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), reinforcing the pair’s bullish structure.

Despite some intraday pullback, the currency pair is now testing the critical resistance zone around 0.6535–0.6550 — an area that has previously capped gains. A sustained break above this barrier could open the door to a further leg higher, with targets near 0.6650 and beyond.

Supporting the bullish case is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains in positive territory despite recent consolidation. Bullish overlapping signals have begun to reemerge after the indicator

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6530

STOP LOSS: 0.6480

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6650

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/JPY trades steadily near 145.30 ahead of crucial U.S. CPI data, with traders eyeing its implications for Fed policy.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

145.804

Entry Price

150.000

143.500

155.220 -0.125 -0.08%

103.4

Pips

Loss

143.500

144.770

Exit Price

145.804

Entry Price

150.000

The USD/JPY pair held steady around the 145.00 mark during the European session on Wednesday, as global markets turned their attention to a critical U.S. inflation report that could significantly shape the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook heading into the second half of the year.

The currency pair has oscillated within a narrow intraday range—hovering around 145.30 at the time of writing—demonstrating traders' caution ahead of the release of May’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due at 12:30 GMT. The greenback itself has remained muted, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuating near the psychologically significant 99.00 level.

Market participants are anticipating the inflation print not only for clues on future Fed policy moves but also to assess whether the broader effects of the Trump administration’s newly enacted economic measures—particularly tariff hikes—are beginning to filter into consumer prices. The headline CPI is projected to rise 2.5% year-on-year in May, modestly higher than the 2.3% recorded in April. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, is forecast to tick up to 2.9% from April’s 2.8%.

This uptick, if confirmed, could reinforce concerns that domestic price pressures are firming as a result of tariffs imposed by Washington, with importers likely to pass on the costs to end consumers. In that scenario, the Federal Reserve may have to delay rate cuts or even adopt a more hawkish stance should inflation show signs of persistently overshooting the central bank’s 2% target.

"The Fed has made it clear that it needs more confidence in disinflation before loosening policy," said Emily Wang, FX strategist at Deutsche Bank. "If today’s CPI comes in hotter than expected, we could see USD/JPY extend its rally beyond 146."

On the Japanese front, expectations remain anchored to a cautious Bank of Japan. Despite the BoJ's historic pivot away from negative interest rates earlier this year, a June 2–10 Reuters survey showed that a slim majority of economists still expect the central bank to maintain its policy rate at 0.5% through year-end. Most now anticipate the next rate hike to occur in early 2026, not this year.

This divergence in policy trajectories between the Fed and the BoJ continues to favor a stronger dollar against the yen, especially as Tokyo remains deeply concerned about domestic growth fragility and the potential deflationary impact of a premature tightening cycle.

Elsewhere, geopolitical risks have marginally eased after a two-day summit in London between U.S. and Chinese trade officials, which produced a tentative framework for continued dialogue. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he was optimistic that Beijing would soon reverse its export curbs on rare earth materials—a positive sign that both economies are attempting to stabilize relations after months of heightened tensions.

This slight reduction in geopolitical tension, coupled with subdued yen demand as a traditional safe haven, has also helped underpin the USD/JPY’s upward bias.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY appears poised for further upside in the near term. The pair has broken decisively above a short-term descending trendline and continues to trade above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), maintaining a constructive technical posture. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings have exited oversold territory and now flash fresh bullish signals.

Currently trading around 145.33, USD/JPY has established a solid foothold above the key pivot level at 144.93. If the pair sustains this level, bulls could set their sights on the next resistance target at 146.33. A break beyond that could expose the 150.00 region—a level not seen since late 2022.

Still, a short-term pullback toward the pivot zone is plausible, especially if CPI figures offer an underwhelming surprise. However, unless the price drops back below 144.50, the broader bullish structure remains intact.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 145.80

STOP LOSS: 143.50

TAKE PROFIT: 150.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

In May, Japan's CGPI decreased to 3.2%, while food inflation persisted. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated a gradual tightening approach, indicating limited scope for interest rate cuts.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

145.239

Entry Price

149.500

142.300

155.220 -0.125 -0.08%

217.0

Pips

Profit

142.300

147.409

Exit Price

145.239

Entry Price

149.500

Fundamentals

During Wednesday's European session, the Japanese yen continued its consolidation, currently hovering near a two-week low against the U.S. dollar. Data released earlier today indicated a slowdown in Japan's May annual wholesale inflation, easing pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.

The May Corporate Goods Price Index revealed a sharper-than-anticipated deceleration, dropping from 4.1% to 3.2%, below the forecasted 3.5%. This decline reflects a broad deflationary trend in upstream prices, supported by the recent yen rebound. Import prices, denominated in yen, experienced a significant year-over-year plunge of 10.3%, exceeding the 7.3% drop in April.

Raw material costs across various sectors decreased notably, with steel prices falling by 4.8% year-over-year, chemical product prices by 3.1%, and non-ferrous metal prices by 2.1%.

However, inflation within consumption-related categories exhibited greater persistence. Food and beverage prices increased by 4.2% year-over-year, up from 4.0% in April, indicating that inflationary stickiness in essential goods remains a challenge despite the overall economic cooling on the production side.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that Japan is "still some distance away" from achieving its 2% inflation target, which led to a weakening of the yen. Although he denied the possibility of a rate cut and emphasized that current interest rates are low and should be raised appropriately in the future to preserve stimulus space, his mention of potentially needing to support the economy was interpreted by the market as a possible delay in interest rate hikes, thereby weakening the yen. However, the depreciation of the yen was also influenced by the overall strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

Lack of Bearish Confidence Will Drive Markets Back to Uptrend_1

Technical Analysis

The USDJPY maintained its bullish trajectory on Wednesday, trading around 145.00 during the European session, nearing a two-week high. The yen continued to experience downward pressure due to diminished demand for safe-haven assets, fueled by positive sentiment surrounding China-U.S. trade negotiations.

On the upside, a breach of the 146.27 resistance level would signal the completion of a corrective phase from the 148.64 level.

The intraday outlook remains bullish, with a break above the 148.64 resistance level and beyond, resuming the upward momentum from the 139.87 low.

However, a sustained hold above 142.10 would lead to a retest of 139.87.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 144.50

Target Price: 149.50

Stop Loss: 142.30

Valid Until: June 26, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 144.46, 143.97, 142.96

Resistance: 145.91, 146.27, 148.66

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The primary focus today is the upcoming release of the U.S. May Consumer Price Index, which could validate the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation. The risk lies in whether the price increases are transitory, potentially reigniting inflation concerns and increasing bearish pressure on gold.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3341.69

Entry Price

3250.00

3372.00

4215.35 +17.44 +0.42%

303.1

Pips

Loss

3250.00

3372.00

Exit Price

3341.69

Entry Price

3372.00

Fundamentals

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the highly anticipated May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this Wednesday, Eastern Time. Market participants will be closely monitoring whether the tariffs implemented by U.S. President Trump since April 2 have begun to impact consumer prices.

Institutional forecasts suggest that the overall U.S. CPI will maintain a 0.2% month-over-month increase in May, with the year-over-year rate rising from a four-year low of 2.3% last month to 2.5%. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy categories, may increase from 0.2% to 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year rate expected to rise from 2.8% to 2.9%, reversing the downward trend seen this year.

Analysts indicate that U.S. core inflation may rebound in May as businesses gradually pass on increased tariff costs to core goods and food prices, while prices for some services, such as airfare, will see a narrowing of gains or outright declines

The central debate in the market currently revolves around whether the price increases resulting from tariffs are transitory. The potential impact of a one-time price surge on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory is also under scrutiny, with implications for market volatility.

Gold prices are struggling to capitalize on modest intraday gains, remaining below the previous day's highs, as investors await the release of the U.S. CPI. The forthcoming CPI data will be pivotal in shaping market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, thereby providing fresh directional impetus for the non-yielding gold.

Upward Structure Remains Intact, but Momentum Is Beginning to Wane_1

Technical Analysis

The technical outlook for gold remains neutral. While the bullish structure is still intact, a correction appears imminent. On the upside, a sustained move above Tuesday's high of US$3,349 would reinforce the bullish outlook, potentially targeting the intermediate resistance at US$3,360-US$3,375, and subsequently challenging the US$3,400 psychological level.

Conversely, a break below the US$3,323-US$3322 support range could invite further selling pressure, with initial support expected near US$3,300. Increased selling could drive prices down to the US$3,288-US$3,278 range, shifting the market bias to bearish and potentially leading to a test of the US$3,246 level, which marks the beginning of the upward structure. Further corrective declines could extend towards US$3,200.

Overall, despite the intact bullish structure, gold's momentum is waning. The path of least resistance appears to be downward.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3340

Target Price: 3250

Stop Loss: 3372

Valid Until: June 26, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3323, 3316, 3301

Resistance: 3349, 3355, 3360

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Following a sharp rebound from near the 100,000 mark, the recent rally of nearly 10% has shown signs of losing momentum, raising the probability of a short-term correction.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

109681.3

Entry Price

105000.0

112500.0

91430.0 +1875.2 +2.09%

931.0

Pips

Profit

105000.0

108750.3

Exit Price

109681.3

Entry Price

112500.0

The core software of the Bitcoin network—widely known as Bitcoin Core—is on track to undergo a significant upgrade that could redefine both the technical framework and the community dynamics of the ecosystem.

The upcoming release of Bitcoin Core version 30, scheduled for October 2025, introduces a landmark change: it will lift the long-standing data restriction on transactions using the OP_RETURN function. This change will increase the data limit from the current 80 bytes to nearly 4 megabytes per transaction—the maximum capacity permitted within a Bitcoin block.

This development, confirmed via GitHub and first reported by CoinDesk, is the result of extended and highly public deliberations among developers, cryptographic researchers, and Bitcoin users. While many view this as a step forward in enhancing internal efficiency and offering greater flexibility, others warn that it could open the floodgates to previously unseen vulnerabilities, such as a sharp increase in network spam.

Skeptics argue that enabling transactions to include such large amounts of arbitrary data runs contrary to the original intent of the Bitcoin blockchain as outlined by its pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. They caution that this move could distort the chain’s primary function as a decentralized ledger for peer-to-peer value transfer.

Nevertheless, there is general consensus within the community that expanding OP_RETURN’s capacity could significantly amplify the network’s ability to store non-financial data directly on the blockchain. While this opens the door to innovative use cases—such as digital archiving and timestamping—it also revives old concerns about potential misuse, network congestion, and the ongoing debate over what Bitcoin’s core utility should be.

On the geopolitical front, optimism is stirring across the crypto market as the United States and China prepare to resume high-level trade negotiations in London this Monday. The diplomatic effort is already helping to support risk sentiment, which has, in turn, lifted interest in digital assets.

Top U.S. trade officials from President Donald Trump’s administration are set to meet with their Chinese counterparts for direct discussions over tariffs, amid lingering fears of a prolonged trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The talks aim to re-establish lines of cooperation and defuse economic tensions that have weighed on global markets for months.

Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Kevin Hassett, Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, described the meeting as likely to be “brief but significant,” noting the expectation of a firm handshake and a potential breakthrough. Hassett emphasized that the primary goal is to ensure China is serious about reopening the flow of critical minerals—materials essential to advanced technology, defense systems, and clean energy infrastructure.

The U.S. delegation will be led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, while China’s team will be headed by Vice Premier He Lifeng, signaling the importance both sides attach to the encounter. A Failed High Could Trigger a Bitcoin Correction_1

A Failed High Could Trigger a Bitcoin Correction_1

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has begun to encounter resistance as it approaches the psychologically significant 111,000 level—a zone that may serve as a profit-taking area for short-term traders. Following a sharp rebound from near the 100,000 mark, the recent rally of nearly 10% has shown signs of losing momentum, raising the probability of a short-term correction.

Should selling pressure intensify, the price could retreat toward the next major support around 104,600. Further below, the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the 12-hour chart—currently located at 102,259 and 93,165, respectively—offer substantial downside room for a healthy pullback before the broader uptrend potentially resumes.

Notably, the price action has failed to produce a new local high, and buyers were unable to break through the 110,935 resistance level. This hesitation could be interpreted as a bearish signal, suggesting that the bulls may be losing strength and that a downside correction may accelerate if the price continues to stall.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads at 63, signaling that the market is not yet overbought, which leaves the door open for another upward push—especially if Bitcoin manages to reclaim its bullish momentum and print a new high in upcoming sessions. However, until that happens, the lack of upward follow-through could be an early sign of a shift in short-term market sentiment.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 109650

Target price: 105000

Stop loss: 112500

Validity: Jun 20, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Should the price fail to reclaim higher levels, this could solidify bearish dominance in the short term.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.60402

Entry Price

0.59700

0.60800

0.57846 +0.00092 +0.16%

24.8

Pips

Profit

0.59700

0.60154

Exit Price

0.60402

Entry Price

0.60800

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for May revealed the addition of 139,000 jobs in the non-agricultural sector, surpassing market expectations of 130,000. Alongside this solid print, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, and Average Hourly Earnings held steady at 3.9% year-over-year—both readings coming in stronger than anticipated, reinforcing the view of a labor market that, while moderating, still shows underlying resilience.

Adding to the list of upbeat surprises, the latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index posted its first month-on-month improvement since December, marking a potential turning point after several months of deterioration. This uptick could reflect an early sign of stabilization in small business sentiment—a key component of the broader U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) indicated a decline in inflation expectations across the one-, three-, and five-year timeframes. Although this cooling trend is generally positive, especially from a monetary policy standpoint, the survey also revealed a notable dip in household sentiment. Consumers reported a weaker perception of both current and future financial conditions, suggesting that confidence remains fragile amid mixed economic signals.

This uncertainty was further highlighted by the ISM Services PMI for May, which slipped to 49.9—falling below the neutral 50 level for the first time since December and missing consensus estimates of 52. The reading points to a slight contraction in the services sector, which comprises the majority of U.S. economic activity.

A breakdown of the report revealed persistent inflationary pressures, with the Prices Paid Index jumping from 65.1 to 68.7, signaling elevated input costs. However, the Employment Index rose from 49 to 50.7, hinting at modest recovery in service-sector hiring and offering a counterbalance to the otherwise soft print.

In light of these developments, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee adopted a cautious tone, flagging downside risks stemming from potential trade friction under former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff agenda. These policy shifts, he warned, are being increasingly considered within the Fed's broader risk framework due to their potential to disrupt the economic recovery.

Further geopolitical nuance emerged as U.S. officials hinted at the possible easing of restrictions on certain high-tech exports in exchange for China lifting curbs on rare earth shipments—materials vital to the energy, defense, and technology industries. This more constructive tone in U.S.-China trade talks provided a lift to the New Zealand dollar, often viewed as a China-sensitive proxy due to New Zealand’s close trade ties with the Asian giant.

Additionally, growing speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may slow the pace of interest rate cuts added to the NZD’s positive momentum. While the RBNZ revised its economic forecasts downward compared to its February statement and acknowledged significant global uncertainties, Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon noted the central bank’s surprisingly cautious stance on the timing and magnitude of future OCR reductions—further supporting the currency. A Potential Bearish Pullback Could Target Key Moving Averages_1

A Potential Bearish Pullback Could Target Key Moving Averages_1

Technical Analysis

NZD/USD has encountered strong resistance around the 0.6055 level, with multiple bearish rejections observed in this zone. The failure to establish a clear break above has triggered a series of bearish closes, suggesting the potential for a corrective move toward the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart, located at 0.5958 and 0.5934, respectively. Additionally, the 0.5970 region, which previously acted as resistance, may now serve as short-term support, making it a likely target for any pullback.

From a momentum standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 52, signaling neutrality but also hinting at a possible shift in control toward bearish sentiment. Should the price fail to reclaim higher levels, this could solidify bearish dominance in the short term. Conversely, a decisive break above resistance may reignite bullish momentum, especially considering the lack of recent lower lows, which continues to support the broader uptrend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6040

Target price: 0.5970

Stop loss: 0.6080

Validity: Jun 20, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

EUR/USD rose above 1.1420 as positive U.S.-China trade talk remarks and strong Eurozone data, including a surging Sentix Confidence Index and Italian industrial output, supported the Euro.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.14401

Entry Price

1.16000

1.13600

1.16628 +0.00202 +0.17%

159.9

Pips

Profit

1.13600

1.16037

Exit Price

1.14401

Entry Price

1.16000

The EUR/USD pair clawed back earlier losses during Tuesday’s European session, climbing above 1.1420 as markets digested ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and a batch of upbeat Eurozone economic indicators. Trading near 1.1425 by mid-afternoon, the pair remains confined within its recent range, with investors hesitant to commit to bold directional moves amid uncertainty over trade deal progress. Positive remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump and a hawkish tone from European Central Bank (ECB) officials have lent support to both currencies, but the lack of concrete trade breakthroughs keeps the market on edge, setting the stage for choppy price action in the near term.

The world’s two economic powerhouses, the U.S. and China, are locked in high-stakes trade discussions, with officials aiming to build on last month’s Switzerland meeting that slashed reciprocal tariffs. Trump’s upbeat comment on Tuesday, noting “good reports” from the talks, has buoyed market sentiment, providing a modest lift to the U.S. Dollar. However, traders remain cautious, awaiting tangible progress on contentious issues like rare earth mineral trade, U.S. chip export restrictions, and visa policies for Chinese students. “The constructive tone is encouraging, but these are thorny issues requiring significant concessions,” said one X post, reflecting the market’s guarded optimism.

The talks’ outcome could have far-reaching implications for global markets, including EUR/USD. A breakthrough could strengthen the Dollar by easing trade tensions, while prolonged uncertainty might bolster the Euro as a safe-haven alternative. For now, the pair’s range-bound behavior suggests investors are staying on the sidelines, unwilling to place big bets until clearer signals emerge.

In the Eurozone, a slew of positive economic data has provided a tailwind for the Euro. The Sentix Investors’ Confidence Index for June surged into positive territory for the first time in a year, climbing to 0.3 from -3.6 in May, signaling growing optimism among investors. “This is a significant milestone, reflecting improving sentiment despite global trade uncertainties,” noted a Reuters analyst. Meanwhile, Italian Industrial Output unexpectedly rose 0.5% month-on-month in April, defying forecasts for a 0.2% decline, underscoring resilience in the Eurozone’s third-largest economy.

Adding to the Euro’s strength, ECB policymakers Olli Rehn and François Villeroy de Galhau doubled down on the bank’s hawkish stance. Rehn emphasized the need to keep rates restrictive to tame inflation, projected at 2.4% for 2025, while Villeroy hinted at a gradual approach to easing only if inflation sustainably nears the 2% target. These comments contrast with market expectations for 42 basis points of ECB rate cuts by year-end, per OIS pricing, and have kept the Euro supported against the Dollar.

The Eurozone’s improving fundamentals stand in contrast to recent U.S. data, where a cooling labor market and revised-down GDP forecasts have tempered Dollar strength. The World Bank’s downgrade of U.S. growth to 1.4% for 2025, citing trade barriers, has further clouded the Dollar’s outlook, giving the Euro a relative edge.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is showing signs of resilience despite its range-bound trading. The pair found support near its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1380 during early Tuesday trading, generating positive momentum that fueled a rebound.The bounce off the EMA50 has given EUR/USD a bullish push, with eyes on the key resistance at 1.1440.The pair is trading along a short-term bullish trendline, bolstered by positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is hovering near 55, indicating room for further upside.

A break above 1.1440 could open the door to the next resistance at 1.1600, a level tested in late May. However, failure to clear this hurdle might see the pair retreat toward the 1.1400 support or the 50-day EMA. The current range between 1.1380 and 1.1440 reflects the market’s indecision, with trade talk developments likely to dictate the next move.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1440

STOP LOSS: 1.1360

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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