AUD/USD surges above 0.6600 on risk rally—how long can this momentum hold?

Forex

Summary:

On 24/07/2025, AUD/USD rallied past 0.6600 to trade near 0.6612 during the M15 time frame, fueled by a weaker USD and robust Australian PMI data. As Australia–U.S. trade optimism continues and U.S. CPI data looms...

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66140

Entry Price

0.66500

0.65900

0.66520 -0.00118 -0.18%

24.0

Pips

Loss

0.65900

Exit Price

0.66140

Entry Price

0.66500

Overview

Today, AUD/USD climbed from ~0.6590 to reach ~0.6612, driven by risk-on sentiment and a retreating dollar amid solid Aussie Manufacturing PMI (50.8) and Services PMI (51.9) readings. The pair has decisively pierced the key short-term resistance at 0.6590, riding above the 50- and 100-period EMA on the M15 chart, signaling firm upside momentum in a bullish channel.

Market sentiment

Overall sentiment favors AUD. DailyForex reports the DXY has dropped to ~97, and investor greed is dominating sentiment indices, reflecting risk appetite (lifting meme/stocks). Morgan Stanley analysts also advocate selling the U.S. dollar in favor of AUD, targeting ~0.6750 as USD sentiment diminishes.

Technical analysis

AUD/USD surges above 0.6600 on risk rally—how long can this momentum hold?_1

On M15:

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): the price broke above the upper band around 0.6590, confirming a breakout into an expanded band indicating strong momentum.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): price action remains above the cloud on short-term TFs, further affirming bullish structure.

Stochastic (5,3,3): oscillator shows overbought conditions, but still trending upward—watch for pullback or sideways consolidation near 0.6630.

Additionally, an Elliott Wave count suggests the rally may have completed impulse wave (v) within a larger wave 3, targeting 0.6606–0.6637 as the M15–H1 extension.

Trading recommendation

This remains a bullish setup on M15, but momentum may pause near resistance. Consider the following trade strategy:

Entry (limit buy): 0.6605–0.6608 after minor retest of the breakout zone

Take Profit targets: 0.6650 (psychological resistance + MACD/historical resistance)

Stop Loss: 0.6590 (just under breakout level and 50-EMA support)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Euro steadied against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank left rates unchanged and flagged rising trade risks with the U.S.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17700

Entry Price

1.22000

1.15500

1.17394 +0.00011 +0.01%

220.0

Pips

Loss

1.15500

1.15473

Exit Price

1.17700

Entry Price

1.22000

The Euro is treading water against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, holding steady after the European Central Bank opted to keep key interest rates unchanged while signaling mounting concern over global trade tensions and the persistent strength of the Euro itself. The EUR/USD pair was little changed in early American trading, hovering around 1.178, as investors digested the central bank's monetary policy statement and awaited critical U.S. data that could shape near-term Fed expectations.

As expected by markets, the ECB left its Deposit Facility Rate at 2.00% and the Main Refinancing Operations Rate at 2.15%, reiterating its meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach. While the rate decision was entirely priced in, the central bank’s statement drew attention for its pointed reference to external headwinds — especially the deteriorating trade relationship between Brussels and Washington — as a key downside risk to the bloc’s economic outlook.

In its monetary policy statement, the ECB confirmed that inflation has broadly returned to its 2% medium-term target. At the same time, recent economic data has reflected modest resilience in Eurozone fundamentals, including upticks in services activity and stable labor market conditions. However, policymakers emphasized that external uncertainties are intensifying, most notably in the form of escalating U.S. trade tariffs and the potential for the Euro’s strength to hurt export competitiveness — a critical factor for Europe’s manufacturing-heavy economies.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking in Frankfurt during her post-decision press conference, adopted a cautiously measured tone. She acknowledged the Eurozone’s stable inflation trajectory but made clear that risks to growth remain "tilted to the downside." Lagarde cited higher-than-expected U.S. tariffs, unresolved geopolitical uncertainty, and the stronger Euro as major concerns, saying these factors could dampen business investment and weigh on cross-border trade.

Of particular note was her reference to the European Union’s race to finalize a trade agreement with the United States ahead of the August 1 deadline. Lagarde warned that without a swift resolution, uncertainty could harden, undermining sentiment and slowing down capital expenditure plans across the region. “A clear and constructive resolution to the trade talks could lift sentiment and spur business activity,” she said. “But in the absence of such clarity, caution remains appropriate.”

The Euro had enjoyed a four-day rally earlier in the week, lifted by improving Eurozone data and a weaker Dollar backdrop. However, the rally lost steam as traders weighed the ECB’s conservative tone and rising external threats. The pair is now trading flat, suggesting that momentum may be shifting back toward the Greenback — especially if upcoming U.S. data surprises to the upside.

The Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the U.S. Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, hovered near 97.40 during Thursday’s session, reflecting investor caution ahead of the release of high-impact U.S. economic indicators. Flash PMI figures and weekly jobless claims are due later in the day and will provide a clearer sense of how resilient the U.S. economy remains in the face of lingering inflation and slowing global demand.

Any upside surprise in the U.S. data could reignite expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold longer than expected, reinforcing Dollar strength. On the other hand, softer figures could open the door for renewed speculation about potential policy easing later in the year, particularly if labor market softness begins to materialize more clearly.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the EUR/USD pair is in a delicate balance. After a corrective pullback earlier this week, price action is attempting to regain upward momentum, supported by the 50-day exponential moving average and a bullish trendline that remains intact on the short-term charts. The Relative Strength Index has come off overbought levels and is showing early signs of recovery, suggesting that buyers may be regrouping for another attempt higher.

As long as the pair holds above the 1.1780 level, the path toward 1.1829 — a key liquidity and resistance zone — remains intact. A sustained move above that level would reassert bullish dominance and potentially trigger a run toward the 1.1880–1.1900 area. However, a break below 1.1715 would expose 1.1680, with deeper downside risk toward 1.1640 should bearish pressure accelerate.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1770

STOP LOSS: 1.1550

TAKE PROFIT: 1.2200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Commodity

Summary:

On 24 July 2025, gold (XAU/USD) pulled back from recent highs, trading near $3,363 after failing to sustain its breakout above $3,451. The decline was driven by positive trade developments between the U.S., Japan, and EU, boosting risk-on sentiment...

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3372.47

Entry Price

3390.00

3340.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

324.7

Pips

Loss

3340.00

3339.95

Exit Price

3372.47

Entry Price

3390.00

Overview

Gold reached a peak near $3,439 on Wednesday before pulling back as strides in U.S.–Japan and U.S.–EU trade deals lifted investors toward risk assets. On 24 July, XAU/USD hovered around $3,360—a 0.7% slide testing support near the 50-day moving average at $3,338. The dollar remains weak, and U.S. Treasury yields drift lower, anchoring longer-term support.

Market Sentiment

Trade optimism is eroding safe-haven demand, yet macro factors remain gold-friendly. Trade deal progress fuels risk appetite, dampening gold’s bid. Still, central bank dovishness and dollar softness limit the decline. HSBC maintains a bullish longer-term outlook, raising its average gold projection to $3,215 for 2025 and anticipating continued volatility between $3,100–$3,600. DataTrek notes gold’s year‑to‑date gains close to 29%, reinforcing its role as a strategic hedge.

Technical Analysis

Gold dips below $3,400 amidst renewed risk appetite – is the rally slowing?_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): Bands are expanding. Price failed to break resistance around $3,451 and pulled back toward the middle band near $3,380; support lies at the 50-day MA around $3,338.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): Short‑term cloud indicators show bearish momentum; 4‑hour analysis reflects accelerating downward bias. On daily or weekly charts, longer-term Ichimoku structure still supports bullish via weekly MA positioning.

Stochastic (5,3,3): The oscillator indicates overbought conditions, with potential bearish crossovers prompting a dip toward $3,350.

Trading Recommendation

Given the mixed backdrop, a near‑term pullback presents a buy-the-dip opportunity for medium-term bulls:

Entry: Long between $3,350–3,360 (approaching 50‑day MA support)

Take Profit: $3,390–3,395 (mid-upper Bollinger band + recent resistance)

Stop Loss: $3,340 (break of immediate support invalidates bullish setup)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Australian Dollar climbed for a fifth straight session on Thursday, reaching an eight-month high above 0.6600 against the U.S. Dollar, buoyed by robust PMI figures and improved global sentiment.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66100

Entry Price

0.67000

0.65600

0.66520 -0.00118 -0.18%

50.0

Pips

Loss

0.65600

0.65597

Exit Price

0.66100

Entry Price

0.67000

The Australian Dollar extended its winning streak against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, climbing above the psychologically significant 0.6600 mark to register its highest level since October last year. The move reflects a confluence of upbeat domestic economic data, cautious optimism in global markets, and a technically bullish backdrop that has drawn further momentum traders into the AUD/USD rally.

At the heart of the Aussie’s strength is the latest preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Judo Bank and S&P Global, which signaled a notable acceleration in Australia’s economic activity. The July Composite PMI jumped to 53.6 from 51.6 previously — marking the highest reading since April 2022 and the tenth consecutive month of expansion. It is a clear sign that despite lingering global uncertainties, Australia’s private sector is gaining traction.

Breaking down the data, Australia’s services sector — the largest component of GDP — led the charge. The Services PMI surged to 53.8 in July from 51.8 in June, reaching its fastest pace of growth in 16 months. This suggests that consumer demand and business confidence remain resilient even as inflationary pressures linger. The manufacturing sector also contributed positively, with its PMI rising to 51.6 from 50.6, moving further into expansionary territory. Importantly, new orders for manufactured goods recorded the strongest growth in over three years, underlining renewed strength in both domestic and external demand.

This pickup in economic momentum adds another layer of complexity to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook. Speaking at the Anika Foundation in Sydney, RBA Governor Michele Bullock struck a cautious tone. She emphasized the central bank’s commitment to ensuring that inflation remains low and stable, particularly amid what she described as “ongoing uncertainty and unpredictability” in the global economy. Bullock’s comments suggest that while the RBA remains data-dependent, strong PMI figures could shift market expectations toward a more hawkish bias — or at the very least, delay rate cuts that markets had begun to price in earlier this year.

Beyond the domestic front, the Australian Dollar also found tailwinds from a marginal improvement in global trade sentiment. According to the Financial Times, the United States and the European Union are reportedly nearing a new trade agreement that would impose a 15% tariff on EU goods imported into the U.S. While such a development could initially appear protectionist, markets seem to be interpreting it as a sign of de-escalation and compromise in broader transatlantic trade relations, thereby improving global risk appetite — a crucial factor for the risk-sensitive Aussie.

In the broader context, the Australian Dollar’s climb has also been facilitated by signs of consolidation in the U.S. Dollar, which has struggled to find consistent direction amid ongoing political noise and uncertain Federal Reserve guidance. With traders increasingly skeptical of further Fed tightening and economic data showing mixed signals in the U.S., high-beta currencies like the AUD are benefiting from renewed carry trade flows and optimism over global growth stabilization.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, AUD/USD has made a decisive breakout above a key resistance zone at 0.6590, confirming its bullish trajectory. The pair continues to trade above its 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a signal that momentum remains to the upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), despite entering overbought territory, still shows positive divergence — suggesting that the rally may have room to extend in the near term. We are now watching the 0.6650–0.6700 zone as the next potential resistance area, with a sustained break above this region likely to invite further bullish momentum.

Moreover, the broader technical structure shows that AUD/USD remains in a well-defined upward channel on the daily chart, supported by a series of higher lows and a short-term rising trendline. Unless the pair decisively breaks back below 0.6550, the bullish trend is expected to remain intact, supported by both fundamental and technical narratives.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6610

STOP LOSS: 0.6560

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Summary:

Euro-zone July PMIs staged a broad-based rebound, with the composite gauge printing an 11-month high and signalling a firming of growth momentum across the currency bloc. In contrast, New Zealand’s Q2 CPI came in softer than expected, prompting the RBNZ to flag that escalating global tariffs and heightened macro uncertainty could exert additional disinflationary pressure over the medium term while compounding downside risks to the nascent recovery.

BUY EURNZD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.94323

Entry Price

1.96060

1.93250

2.02197 +0.00122 +0.06%

86.1

Pips

Profit

1.93250

1.95184

Exit Price

1.94323

Entry Price

1.96060

Fundamentals

Flash estimates show euro-area private-sector output accelerating for a second consecutive month. The composite PMI rose to 51.0 from 50.6, its highest level since August 2024. Manufacturing nudged up to 49.8—also a 36-month peak—while remaining fractionally below the 50 expansion threshold. Services advanced to 51.2, a six-month top, suggesting that the recovery is broadening out from industry into consumer-facing segments.

For the ECB, the data offer modest breathing room. Services inflation—the key metric for Governing Council hawks—continued to moderate in July, offsetting a tentative stabilisation in goods prices. A firmer euro and the persistent threat of U.S. tariff escalation are expected to exert additional disinflationary pressure in H2, lowering the bar for another rate cut in September.

NEW ZEALAND: Q2 CPI rose 0.5 % QoQ, undershooting the 0.6% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, while the annual rate ticked up to 2.7 %—also shy of the 2.8 % forecast—yet remains comfortably inside the RBNZ’s 1–3 % target band.

RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said in a speech that escalating global tariffs and “geo-economic uncertainty” could “weigh on inflation over the medium term” and delay a durable recovery until mid-2026. While some economies face imported-cost inflation, New Zealand’s open-economy structure makes it more vulnerable to disinflation via weaker global demand and lower import prices.

Against this backdrop, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reiterated its commitment to an accommodative stance and signalled that, should inflation continue to moderate in line with its projections, further easing of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains firmly on the table.

Soft NZ Inflation Keeps RBNZ in Dovish Lane_1

Technical Analysis

EURNZD snapped a three-day slide on Wednesday and is holding the lower bound of the ascending channel that has framed price action since mid-June. Momentum oscillators are unwinding from deeply oversold levels, raising the probability of a technical bounce.

Since rebounding off the 1.8820 base in mid-June, EURNZD has traced out a textbook ascending structure of consecutively higher highs and higher lows, underscoring that bulls retain structural control.

Price is once again finding bids at channel support; provided it holds the current zone without carving out a lower low, scope opens for a measured extension toward initial resistance at 1.9640, with the psychological 1.9700 magnet coming into play thereafter.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.9409

Target Price: 1.9606

Stop Loss: 1.9325

Valid Until: August 8, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.9409/1.9396/1.9357

Resistance: 1.9494/1.9552/1.9587

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Summary:

GBPUSD experienced a short-term decline on Thursday, relinquishing some of its gains from earlier in the week. Softening data from both the UK manufacturing and composite PMI indices have sparked investor concerns over the economic growth outlook, intensifying market expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates sooner than anticipated, thereby exerting downward pressure on the pound.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.35408

Entry Price

1.38630

1.34150

1.33707 -0.00148 -0.11%

125.8

Pips

Loss

1.34150

Exit Price

1.35408

Entry Price

1.38630

Fundamentals

The latest survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) revealed that, despite signs of stabilization in the manufacturing sector following a period of weakness, the overall outlook remains fragile. Many businesses continue to cut investments and reduce their workforce.

CBI Chief Economist Ben Jones remarked, “The manufacturing environment remains highly challenging, with companies generally reporting weak and unpredictable demand. High input costs, labor shortages, and global supply chain disruptions continue to squeeze profit margins and constrain production capacity.”

Data indicated that the manufacturing order balance improved slightly from -33 in June to -30 in July, returning to its May level. Meanwhile, the three-month ahead industrial price expectation balance rose from 19 to 21, signaling that inflationary pressures are still building up.

Moreover, the July PMI data released by IHS Markit showed that the UK composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 51.0, the manufacturing PMI rose from 47.7 to 48.2, while the services PMI declined significantly to 51.2. The overall figures reflect a slowdown in UK economic growth.

Market Observations：The current level of output in the UK manufacturing sector supports only a 0.1% quarterly GDP growth rate, with risks skewed to the downside. Additionally, job cuts across multiple industries have further exacerbated market concerns over the demand outlook.

Amid stagnating economic growth and a slowing labor market, the pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates again in August is rising. Although recent inflation data has shown an unexpected uptick, the central bank may lean towards a more accommodative stance to avoid pushing the economy into a deeper recession, given the near-stagnation of economic activity.

CBI and PMI Surveys Signal UK Economic Deceleration; Sterling Outlook Under Pressure?_1

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, the GBPUSD pair relinquished some of its earlier gains, but the overall bullish structure remains robust. On the daily chart, the pound sterling found crucial support around the 1.3360 level, suggesting that the current pullback could be a phase of consolidation within the broader upward trend.

Previously, GBPUSD had broken through the key support-turned-resistance at 1.3561, indicating that the correction from 1.3787 had likely concluded near the 1.3363 level. If the exchange rate subsequently resumes its upward trajectory and breaches the high at 1.3787, it is expected to reignite the rally within the Fibonacci range extending from 1.2099 to 1.4004. As long as the support at 1.3363 is not decisively breached, the overall risk bias remains skewed to the upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3516

Target Price: 1.3863

Stop Loss: 1.3415

Valid Until: August 8, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.3516/1.3486/1.3460

Resistance: 1.3577/1.3599/1.3622

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its interest rate decision at 15:15 (GMT+3) today and hold a press conference at 15:45 (GMT+3). After seven consecutive rate cuts, the main refinancing rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.15%. The uncertainties surrounding the ECB's interest rate decision and the trade relations between the U.S. and the European Union have heightened investors' concerns. As a result, the euro has witnessed a sharp decline.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.17000

Entry Price

1.17500

1.16600

1.17394 +0.00011 +0.01%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.16600

1.17306

Exit Price

1.17000

Entry Price

1.17500

Fundamentals

The strength of the US dollar has been a prominent feature in the recent currency landscape, with the dollar showing resilience against major currencies. This upward trajectory is not a random fluctuation but the result of a combination of underlying economic and geopolitical factors.

Firstly, the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening cycle in response to persistent inflation has made dollar-denominated assets more attractive due to their higher interest rate differentials compared to those in other developed economies. During times of global uncertainty, investors seeking higher returns or a safe-haven often flock to the dollar, further driving up its value.

The ECB is scheduled to announce its rate decision at 15:15 (GMT+3) today and hold a press conference at 15:45 (GMT+3). After seven consecutive interest rate cuts, the main refinancing rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.15%. The uncertainties surrounding the ECB's interest rate decision and the trade relations between the US and the EU have intensified investors' worries, leading to a rapid decline in the euro.

Technical Analysis

On the 15-minute chart of EURUSD, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the moving averages are diverging downwards. According to the MACD indicator, the fast and slow lines have just crossed below the zero line. The RSI is below 40, indicating a short-term sell signal. At present, there is no sign of the decline stopping, and the support level below is near the EMA200 at a price of 1.174.

On the four-hour chart, the upward channel remains intact, but a "Dark Cloud Cover" candlestick pattern has emerged, suggesting that the pair is likely to test the EMA12. This is an uptrend line. As long as the candlestick's body does not break below this line, the upward trend of EURUSD will remain intact. If it breaks below, the pair will further test the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and the EMA200 for support. It should be noted that the MACD on the four-hour chart is about to form a bearish cross. If the pair breaks below the uptrend line and a bearish cross occurs on the MACD, traders should be alert to the possibility of a significant correction.

Overall, regardless of the short-term pullbacks in the EURUSD, the long-term bullish trend remains unchanged. Traders are advised to adopt a strategy of buying on dips.