Bitcoin price has spent the last couple of days stabilizing after recent volatility that saw lows near $86,000, with the current trading range near $88,000–$89,000. The broader crypto market has shown signs of cautious recovery as macro pressure on risk assets eases slightly, and BTC has found bids around key support zones. While the medium-term structure still shows downside elements, on the shorter M15 timeframe, buyers have repeatedly defended the lower 80Ks, suggesting demand on dips. This creates a scenario where short-term upside moves are possible, especially if BTC buyers regain control of the range and push price back above immediate resistance levels.

Sentiment remains mixed but somewhat constructive for a tactical buy. Although bearish technical signals exist on longer timeframes, the near-term sentiment shows cautious optimism as Bitcoin nears $89K with rebounds from recent support levels. Some analysts and price action data point to consolidation around these levels, implying dip buyers are active and may continue defending key zones, which supports a buy-on-dip strategy.

On the M15 timeframe, local support derived from recent lows around $86,000–$87,000 has repeatedly held, leading to renewed short-term bounce attempts. Price oscillations within the $87,000–$89,500 band show that buyers may be stepping in at lower bounds, creating short-term demand that could lead to upside moves toward nearby resistance. If BTC holds above intra-session support and breaks above the $89,500–$90,000 range with momentum, this would confirm the bullish bias for this buy setup.

Entry: 89200

Take Profit: 90300

Stop Loss: 87900

Gold has recently vaulted past $5,200 per ounce and, according to multiple reports, climbed even beyond $5,300 in early Asian trading, marking fresh all-time highs driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and a notable slide in the US dollar. Investors continue to flock to gold as a safe-haven asset while the dollar weakens, creating strong fundamental support for higher prices. However, this explosive rally has stretched short-term technical indicators and led to an overextended structure on lower timeframes such as M15, which often precedes corrective moves. While the long-term trend stays bullish, near-term price behavior suggests opportunities for downside corrections or pullbacks.

Sentiment remains heavily tilted toward gold bulls in the broader macro context as safe-haven demand intensifies. Nonetheless, on lower timeframes, traders are showing early signs of caution as the rapid advance pushes momentum measures into extreme territory. With the RSI and MACD indicating overbought conditions and price far above moving average baselines, short-term sentiment may shift toward profit-taking and rotational selling, especially if buyers pause near current highs without fresh catalysts. This short-term fatigue supports a sell-on-strength approach.

On the M15 timeframe, gold’s price structure has extended sharply with record levels and reduced pullbacks, reflecting strong but overstretched momentum. Technical data from live sources show price levels tightening near fresh highs, suggesting limited room for further upside before corrective reactions appear. Overbought conditions on short timeframes may trigger minor retracements toward dynamic support zones or lower bands, even within a broader uptrend. Lower highs and potential rejection signals near resistance peaks enhance the case for tactical shorts on strength.

Entry: 5280

Take Profit: 5170

Stop Loss: 5305

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged lower during European trading on Wednesday, correcting modestly after a strong surge in the previous session. Despite the pullback, the broader tone in the oil market remains firm, with prices hovering near four-month highs as traders weigh tightening supply conditions against macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

WTI was trading around $62.40 per barrel, retreating from an earlier intraday peak of $62.85, its highest level since early autumn. Tuesday’s nearly 2.9% rally reflected a market increasingly focused on physical supply risks rather than purely demand-side macro concerns — a shift that has reintroduced a geopolitical premium into crude benchmarks.

A key driver behind the recent strength has been a sharp, weather-related disruption to US crude output. Production reportedly declined by as much as 2 million barrels per day, equivalent to roughly 15% of total US supply, as extreme winter conditions strained energy infrastructure and power grids across parts of the Gulf Coast and southern United States.

The outages have not only curbed upstream production but also temporarily affected export flows from major Gulf Coast terminals — a crucial artery for global crude trade. Restart timelines remain uncertain, with icy and wet conditions expected to delay the full restoration of operations. For a market already sensitive to supply shocks, the scale and suddenness of these disruptions have tightened near-term balances.

In my view, this type of weather-driven outage tends to have an outsized psychological impact compared with its duration. Even if production gradually resumes over the coming weeks, the episode reinforces how vulnerable US supply — often viewed as the world’s swing producer — can be to extreme weather, a theme markets may increasingly price in.

Beyond weather-related factors, geopolitical risks are once again climbing up the market’s priority list. Traders are closely watching reports of an expanding US military presence in the Middle East, including the deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group. The move is widely seen as strengthening Washington’s readiness to respond to potential threats involving Iran.

While no direct disruption to oil flows has occurred, the mere possibility of escalation in a region responsible for roughly a third of global seaborne crude trade is enough to inject caution into positioning. Historically, oil markets tend to price in a “risk premium” well before any actual supply loss materializes.

The situation underscores how fragile the current geopolitical backdrop remains. Even in the absence of immediate conflict, elevated tensions can influence shipping routes, insurance costs, and risk appetite — all of which feed into crude pricing dynamics.

On the data front, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a modest 0.25 million-barrel draw in US crude inventories for the week ended January 23. While relatively small compared with the previous week’s 3.04 million-barrel build, the shift back toward a drawdown adds to the narrative of tightening short-term supply.

However, inventory trends alone are unlikely to drive the next major move. Instead, traders appear more focused on real-time disruptions and geopolitical developments, which can quickly overshadow routine stock fluctuations.

Currency markets have also played a supportive role. The US dollar has slipped to its lowest level in nearly four years, making dollar-denominated commodities like oil more attractive to international buyers. A softer greenback effectively lowers the purchasing cost of crude for countries using other currencies, often boosting demand at the margin.

Interestingly, President Donald Trump recently described the dollar’s level as “great,” suggesting no immediate concern from the administration over currency weakness. For oil markets, continued dollar softness could help cushion prices even if broader risk sentiment wobbles.

Investors are also awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision later Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, following three consecutive rate cuts earlier in 2025. While energy markets are not directly tied to rate settings, the Fed’s forward guidance could influence the dollar, growth expectations, and overall risk appetite.

A more cautious tone from the Fed could reinforce concerns about economic momentum, potentially capping oil’s upside. Conversely, signals that policymakers remain confident in the outlook may further support the risk-on environment that has helped lift crude in recent sessions.

From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil is transitioning from a prolonged downtrend into an early-stage recovery, with price action attempting to break free from a well-defined descending channel that has governed movement since mid-2025. On the daily chart, the series of lower highs and lower lows that defined the bearish structure began to lose momentum after price based near the $55.50–$56.00 support zone, where buyers stepped in decisively.

The recent rebound has carried WTI back toward the $62.00–$63.00 region, which now serves as a key inflection point. This area aligns with previous support-turned-resistance and sits just above the upper boundary of the broken descending channel. While price has pushed into this zone with improving momentum, it has yet to deliver a decisive breakout, meaning the market is currently in a critical transition phase between trend reversal and resistance rejection.

Below current levels, the $60.50–$61.00 zone represents the first layer of near-term support. This region previously acted as resistance during the channel phase and is now being tested as a potential higher low. A sustained move back below this level would suggest that bullish momentum is faltering and could drag prices back toward the $56.00 structural support, where the prior base formed. A break beneath $56.00 would invalidate the recovery structure and signal a resumption of the broader downtrend.

On the upside, bulls are focused on a sustained break above $63.00, which would confirm a bullish channel breakout and shift the market structure toward higher highs. Such a move would likely open the door toward the $66.50–$67.00 resistance zone, a major supply area that capped price action multiple times in the second half of last year. A successful push through that barrier would mark a more meaningful trend reversal and expose the $70.00 psychological level.

Overall price behavior suggests accumulation rather than distribution, with the rebound forming a sequence of higher lows after the January bottom. The structure now favors cautiously bullish positioning as long as price holds above the $60.50 area.

BUY WTI CRUDE OIL

ENTRY PRICE: 62.50

STOP LOSS: 59.80

TAKE PROFIT: 70.00

Gold continued its historic rally on Wednesday, pushing deeper into uncharted territory as investors piled into safe-haven assets amid mounting uncertainty around US economic policy, Federal Reserve independence, and global geopolitical risks. Spot Gold (XAU/USD) climbed to a new all-time high near $4,311 during the European session before easing slightly to trade around $4,260, still firmly supported by broad-based Dollar weakness and defensive positioning.

The move marks the metal’s eighth consecutive day of gains, underscoring the strength of the current bullish cycle. However, momentum has slowed somewhat as traders turn cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at 19:00 GMT, a key event that could determine whether Gold’s rally accelerates further or pauses for consolidation.

While policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, the spotlight will fall squarely on Chair Jerome Powell’s tone and forward guidance. Markets are increasingly sensitive to any shift toward an easing bias, particularly after months of cooling inflation data and signs of softer economic momentum.

A signal that the Fed is preparing the ground for gradual rate cuts later this year would likely reinforce Gold’s bullish structure, keeping real yields under pressure and the Dollar on the defensive. Conversely, a more cautious or hawkish stance — emphasizing inflation risks or resilience in growth — could spark short-term profit-taking in Bullion and offer the Greenback temporary relief.

Still, the broader macro backdrop suggests any pullbacks may be shallow. Investors appear to be using dips as buying opportunities rather than exits, reflecting a structural shift in how Gold is being viewed within global portfolios.

Gold’s explosive rise — now up nearly 22% this month alone — is unfolding alongside a notable erosion in confidence in the US Dollar. Concerns over the long-term credibility of US economic policy have intensified as President Donald Trump ramps up his trade agenda while publicly criticizing the Federal Reserve.

Fresh tariff threats and renewed rhetoric challenging the Fed’s independence have unsettled currency markets. On Tuesday, Trump dismissed worries about the Dollar’s slide, telling reporters he was not concerned and that the currency should “seek its own level.” Such comments have done little to reassure investors who traditionally rely on the Dollar as a pillar of global financial stability.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 96.24 on Wednesday after recently touching a four-year low. The Greenback’s slide has mechanically boosted Gold by making it cheaper for non-US buyers, but the relationship now appears to run deeper — with investors increasingly questioning the Dollar’s role as the world’s dominant reserve currency.

Further political pressure on the central bank could intensify that narrative. Trump also indicated he would soon announce his choice for the next Fed Chair, adding that under new leadership, “rates [will] come down a lot.” Markets are wary that a more politically aligned Fed could compromise policy credibility, a scenario that typically strengthens the case for holding non-yielding, politically neutral assets like Gold.

Beyond monetary policy and currency dynamics, geopolitical risk remains a powerful tailwind. Tensions between the US and Iran have resurfaced, while the Russia–Ukraine conflict shows little sign of resolution. In such an environment, institutional investors and central banks continue to treat Gold not just as a hedge, but as a strategic reserve asset.

Central bank purchases remain robust, particularly among emerging-market economies seeking to diversify away from Dollar reserves. At the same time, exchange-traded funds backed by physical Gold have recorded sustained inflows, reflecting growing retail and institutional appetite.

This combination of official-sector buying and private investment demand has created a strong floor under prices, reducing the likelihood of deep corrections even as the market enters technically overbought territory.

From a technical perspective, gold remains firmly embedded in a strong bullish structure, with the recent pullback appearing corrective rather than indicative of a trend reversal. On the 30-minute chart, price action shows a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows, supported by a steep impulsive leg that carried bullion from below the $5,100 zone to fresh record territory above $5,300 before easing.

Prices are currently consolidating just above the $5,250–$5,260 support zone, which aligns with a prior breakout area and now serves as a near-term demand region. This level is acting as a technical pivot following the latest upward impulse. While the recent candles show hesitation and mild profit-taking, the structure of the pullback remains orderly, lacking the aggressive momentum typically associated with a bearish reversal.

Below current levels, the next key support rests near $5,100, a former resistance zone that capped price action earlier and later flipped into support during the breakout phase. A decisive break beneath this level would represent a deeper correction and could expose the $4,990–$5,000 psychological and structural support region, where prior consolidation occurred. Only a sustained move below this zone would signal a more meaningful deterioration in the short-term bullish structure.

On the upside, bulls remain focused on a renewed push above the recent swing high near $5,300. A sustained breakout above that level would confirm continuation of the prevailing uptrend and open the door toward the $5,450–$5,500 zone, as projected by the measured-move extension drawn on the chart. Such a move would likely attract fresh momentum buying, reinforcing gold’s role as a high-beta safe-haven asset in the current environment.

Momentum dynamics also support the consolidation narrative. The rally’s steep ascent has cooled, but price remains well above the prior breakout base, suggesting digestion of gains rather than exhaustion. The current pause appears to be a bullish flag-style consolidation, often seen before continuation in strong trends.

Overall, the broader technical outlook favors buying dips while price holds above $5,250, with the short-term pause likely serving as a base for the next leg higher rather than the start of a reversal.

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 5,265

STOP LOSS: 5,180

TAKE PROFIT: 5,450

The Japanese Yen maintained its upward momentum on Wednesday, even as the US Dollar attempted a modest rebound, with USD/JPY trading near 152.45 during early European flows. The pair remains capped below the key 153.00 psychological level, hovering not far above a three-week low of 152.16 as traders position cautiously ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement later today.

Currency markets are entering the decision with subdued conviction but heightened sensitivity to forward guidance. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, reinforcing its recent “higher for longer” stance. However, the real market driver may lie beyond the rate decision itself. Investors are increasingly focused on the future leadership of the central bank, with Chair Jerome Powell expected to step down in May. President Donald Trump has already made clear his preference for significantly lower borrowing costs, raising questions about how independent US monetary policy may appear in the months ahead.

That political undertone is quietly eroding confidence in the Dollar’s medium-term outlook. While US yields have stabilized in recent sessions, the Greenback has still shed more than 4% against the Yen since last Friday. The decline accelerated after reports surfaced that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan had conducted so-called “rate checks” in USD/JPY — a move widely interpreted in FX markets as a precursor to potential coordinated currency intervention.

Such speculation prompted leveraged funds and short-term traders to trim bullish Dollar bets, amplifying the Yen’s recovery. The move gained further traction after President Trump publicly welcomed the recent Dollar depreciation on Tuesday, a rare instance of US leadership openly favoring a weaker currency. That commentary added political weight to an already fragile Dollar narrative and pushed USD/JPY to its lowest levels since late October.

On the Japanese side, the policy backdrop has also shifted in ways that favor Yen strength. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s December meeting reinforced the central bank’s commitment to gradual monetary normalization. Policymakers highlighted confidence that underlying inflation trends and wage growth are becoming more sustainable — a key prerequisite for further tightening. This message has reassured markets that Japan is moving steadily away from its ultra-loose policy era, even if the pace remains cautious.

Importantly, this tightening bias is helping offset long-standing investor concerns about Japan’s heavy public debt burden. As long as inflation and wages continue to firm, the BoJ has room to edge policy settings higher without destabilizing the domestic economy. That structural shift is quietly reshaping the Yen’s role in global FX markets — from a purely defensive safe haven to a currency with improving yield support.

From a market perspective, the convergence of a politically pressured Fed outlook and a cautiously tightening BoJ creates an environment that naturally limits USD/JPY upside. Even when the Dollar finds short-term support, follow-through buying has become hesitant, suggesting that rallies are increasingly seen as selling opportunities rather than the start of a broader reversal.

In my view, unless the Fed delivers a notably hawkish surprise — which appears unlikely — the balance of risks still favors further Yen resilience. Intervention fears may ebb and flow, but the mere presence of that risk acts as a ceiling on aggressive Dollar positioning. At the same time, Japan’s evolving policy stance gives investors a fundamental reason to take Yen strength more seriously than in past cycles.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has shifted from a steady bullish trend into a vulnerable corrective phase. On the daily chart, price action had been respecting a well-defined ascending channel that guided the pair higher from October through January. However, the recent sharp selloff has broken decisively below the lower boundary of that channel, signaling a potential trend exhaustion rather than a routine pullback.

The pair is now hovering near the 152.00 zone, which previously acted as minor structural support and now serves as an immediate battleground between bulls and bears. The aggressive nature of the decline suggests a change in sentiment, with downside momentum accelerating after repeated failures near the 158.00–160.00 resistance area, which capped upside attempts at the top of the channel.

A daily close below 152.00 would confirm a deeper corrective phase and expose the next major support around 148.00, a level that previously acted as both resistance and consolidation support during the prior range phase. A sustained move beneath 148.00 would mark a broader structural breakdown, opening the door toward the 143.00 region, which represents a key horizontal demand zone from earlier in the trend and aligns with the projected path shown on the chart.

On the upside, any recovery attempts are likely to face stiff resistance. The first hurdle comes in near 155.00, followed by the more critical 158.00 area, which coincides with the former channel support turned resistance. Only a sustained move back above this region would negate the immediate bearish outlook and suggest that the breakdown was a false move rather than the start of a broader reversal.

Overall, the technical structure now favors selling into rebounds rather than buying dips, as long as price remains below the broken channel and under the 158.00 resistance zone. The shift from an orderly uptrend to impulsive downside movement suggests that momentum has rotated in favor of the yen, at least in the near term.

SELL USD/JPY

ENTRY PRICE: 152.60

STOP LOSS: 158.20

TAKE PROFIT: 148.00

Investors remain worried about Japan's fiscal situation due to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's aggressive spending and tax cut proposals. Additionally, domestic political uncertainty ahead of the early general election on Feb 8, coupled with elevated risk appetite, has eroded the yen's safe-haven status. However, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) hawkish policy outlook and market fears of central bank intervention are helping to limit further yen depreciation. In fact, the BOJ's December meeting minutes, released earlier today, showed policymakers are more confident in sustaining a moderate wage-price cycle, citing this as a basis for further tightening monetary policy. This, in turn, underscores the BOJ's willingness to continue pushing up currently low borrowing costs. Long-term Japanese government bond yields have hit fresh highs, Japanese equities have seen their worst sell-off in months, and the yen has dropped to all-time lows against the euro and Swiss franc. Markets widely expect the Japanese Ministry of Finance to intervene again if USDJPY breaks above the 160 level, with the possibility of coordinated yen purchases with the United States not ruled out. Nevertheless, historical experience shows that foreign exchange intervention can mostly only smooth short-term volatility rather than reverse fundamentals-driven trends. In 2024, Japan deployed approximately 15.3 trillion yen in interventions—an unprecedented scale—with only temporary effects, unless the timing aligns with a shift in global monetary policy expectations.

Against the backdrop of resilient U.S. economic performance and potential new fiscal stimulus to boost consumer spending, bond investors are gradually increasing risk exposure and positioning for a potential prolonged pause in the Fed's rate-cut cycle. Markets broadly anticipate the Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% target range following the two-day FOMC policy meeting. Previously, the Fed had cut rates by a total of 25 bps in September, October, and December, ending a nine-month rate pause. While markets are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference, investor attention has partially shifted to the succession plan after his expected departure in May. Rick Rieder, head of BlackRock's bond business, is regarded as a top contender, with prediction markets putting his odds at around 49%. Ahead of the policy decision, bond investors are seeking higher potential returns mainly by extending portfolio duration, increasing holdings of long-term U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. corporate bonds. This strategy is generally considered relatively high-risk, as longer-duration bonds are more sensitive to changes in interest rates and economic outlooks. With a stable labor market, signs of peaking inflation, and the federal funds rate near neutral levels, markets widely expect the Fed to implement a moderate easing cycle. Interest rate futures currently price in approximately 44 bps of cumulative Fed rate cuts by 2026, down from the previous expectation of around 53 bps. Meanwhile, spreads on U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds have narrowed to about 73 bps, near the lowest level since the late 1990s, reflecting strong demand for high-quality credit assets and limiting room for further increases in risk exposure.

On the daily chart, USDJPY shows Bollinger Bands opening downward with MAs diverging lower, as prices stage a sharp decline along the lower Bollinger Band. After the MACD death cross, upward momentum has weakened significantly, with the fast and slow lines moving below the zero axis—indicating a bearish trend. Overall, prices are likely to fall to 152 or 151.8. The RSI reading stands at 29, placing the market in the oversold zone with investors predominantly selling.

On the weekly chart, prices have dropped with two consecutive large bearish candles and are currently consolidating near the middle Bollinger Band and EMA50. The MACD has formed a death cross, and the fast and slow lines are pulling back toward the zero axis—still a considerable distance away, suggesting the correction is not yet complete. The RSI reading is 46, reflecting market pessimism. If prices can sustainably hold above EMA50, a rally to around 160 is highly likely; failure to hold this level would trigger a further decline to 150.

Thus, the trading strategy recommends buying on dips as the primary approach.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 151.8

Target Price: 160

Stop Loss: 149.5

Support: 152/150/149.5

Resistance: 160/161/162