Rebound Tests Key Resistance, but the Medium- to Long-Term Bearish Structure Remains Intact

Summary:

Bitcoin has extended its technical rebound and is once again testing the $64,000 level. However, the price continues to trade below its major medium- and long-term moving averages, indicating that the broader bearish structure remains unchanged. Until key resistance levels are decisively broken, the current rally is more likely to be viewed as a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend.

SELL BTC-USDT

EXP

PENDING

65900.0

Entry Price

43673.0

76357.0

64013.3 -35.7 -0.06%

Pips

PENDING

43673.0

Exit Price

65900.0

Entry Price

76357.0

Fundamental

Improving market risk appetite has supported Bitcoin's recent recovery, with the cryptocurrency gaining more than 6% over the past week. Nevertheless, the market still lacks a fresh fundamental catalyst, and the improvement in sentiment has yet to reverse the broader medium-term trend.

As Bitcoin approaches a major technical resistance zone, the battle between bulls and bears is expected to intensify, with the next directional move largely dependent on whether buyers can successfully overcome these key resistance levels.

Rebound Tests Key Resistance, but the Medium- to Long-Term Bearish Structure Remains Intact_1

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin rallied strongly on Monday and once again tested the psychological $64,000 level. However, the price remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, all of which continue to slope downward, reinforcing the prevailing medium- to long-term bearish trend.

The first key resistance is located around $64,002. A decisive breakout above this level would pave the way for a test of the 50-day moving average at $65,765. Beyond that, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages at $69,470 and $75,425, respectively, are expected to present substantial resistance. Only a sustained break above these levels would open the door for a move toward the major resistance zone near $84,410.

Momentum indicators have improved modestly. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to around 52, moving back above the neutral threshold, while the MACD remains above the zero line, suggesting that short-term bullish momentum is strengthening. However, unless Bitcoin can reclaim its major moving averages, these signals are more indicative of improving rebound momentum than a genuine trend reversal.

On the downside, the $63,550 area remains a critical near-term support level. A break below this level could trigger another wave of stop-loss selling and profit-taking, intensifying downside pressure and pushing Bitcoin back into its broader downtrend. Therefore, unless the overall trend changes materially, the preferred strategy remains selling into rallies.

Trade Recommendation

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 65,900

Target Price: 43,673

Stop Loss: 76,357

Valid Until: 2026-08-05 23:55

Support: 57,725, 55,557, 52,581

Resistance: 60,886, 61,878, 64,193

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