Who will rise to claim the top spot? Trading Contest is Fierce!

China's economy is likely to have cooled in the second quarter after a solid start to the year, as trade tensions and a prolonged property downturn drag on demand, raising pressure on policymakers to roll out additional stimulus to underpin growth.

The world's No. 2 economy has so far avoided a sharp slowdown in part due to a fragile U.S.-China trade truce and policy support, but markets are bracing for a weaker second half as exports lose momentum, prices continue to fall, and consumer confidence remains low.

Data due Tuesday is expected to show gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.1% year-on-year in April–June, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter, according to a Reuters poll. The projected pace would still exceed the 4.7% forecast in a Reuters poll in April and remains broadly in line with the official full-year target of around 5%.

"While growth has been resilient year-to-date, we still expect it to soften in the second half of the year, due to the payback of front-loaded exports, ongoing negative deflationary feedback loop, and the impact of tariffs on direct exports to the U.S. and the global trade cycle," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note.

"The third-quarter growth could slow to 4.5% or lower, while Q4 faces unfavourable base effect, putting the annual growth target at risk," the analysts said. They expect Beijing to introduce a 0.5–1 trillion yuan ($69.7 billion-$139.5 billion) supplementary budget from late in the third quarter.

China's exports regained some momentum in June while imports rebounded, as factories rushed out shipments to capitalise on a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington ahead of a looming August deadline.

GDP data is due on Tuesday at 0200 GMT. Separate data on June activity is expected to show both industrial output and retail sales slowing.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to have expanded 0.9% in the second quarter, slowing from 1.2% in January-March, the poll showed.

China's 2025 GDP growth is forecast to cool to 4.6% - falling short of the official goal - from last year's 5.0% and ease even further to 4.2% in 2026, according to the poll.

Investors are closely watching for signs of fresh stimulus at the upcoming Politburo meeting due in late July, which is likely to shape economic policy for the remainder of the year.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect a 10-basis point cut in the seven-day reverse repo rate - the central bank's key policy rate - in the fourth quarter, along with a similar cut to the benchmark loan prime rate (LPR).

Beijing has ramped up infrastructure spending and consumer subsidies, alongside steady monetary easing. In May, the central bank cut interest rates and injected liquidity as part of broader efforts to cushion the economy from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.

But China observers and analysts say stimulus alone may not be enough to tackle entrenched deflationary pressures, with producer prices in June falling at their fastest pace in nearly two years.

Expectations are growing that China could accelerate supply-side reforms to curb excess industrial capacity and find new ways to boost domestic demand.

It's a stiff challenge, analysts say, as Chinese leaders face a delicate balancing act in their quest to cut production while maintaining employment stability in the face of a worsening labour market outlook.

Economists have long warned of a tariff-driven boost to US inflation, and the next report on consumer prices will put their conviction to the test. For four months, consumer price index readings from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics have come in cooler than what economists predicted, and those forecasters are again warning of acceleration, with June data due Tuesday. Economists see price rises in tariff-exposed categories including furniture, toys, recreational goods and cars.

There's widespread consensus among Federal Reserve officials and private-sector forecasters that inflation will turn higher during the summer as businesses start passing on President Donald Trump's tariffs to consumers. While many firms chose to initially shield customers by stocking up on inventories in advance or even absorbing part of the higher costs at the expense of lower margins, some are now running out of options.

Trump on Monday said the US will send more weapons to Ukraine and threatened “secondary tariffs” unless Russia agrees to a ceasefire in 50 days. Trump however didn't provide details—in the past, he's used the term to describe duties imposed on countries for trading with American adversaries. Matt Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, said the planned action effectively represents secondary sanctions on countries buying oil from Russia. “It's about tariffs on countries like India and China that are buying their oil,” he explained.

Meta Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg said the company is building several massive data centers to power its artificial intelligence efforts, with the first one expected to come online next year. Meanwhile, fellow tech multibillionaire Elon Musk's trillion-dollar empire is increasingly flowing the same direction. The Tesla co-founder said he plans to hold a vote by shareholders on whether the electric vehicle maker should invest in xAI, his cash-burning AI startup. That comes shortly after SpaceX, Musk's rocket-launch company, agreed to invest about $2 billion in his AI firm.While Musk seeks to boost his AI endeavors, Tesla faces trial over claims it's partly to blame for a fatal 2019 crash in Florida that occurred when the Autopilot system in a Model S allegedly failed to detect a parked SUV. Family members of the woman killed in the crash, Tesla engineers and auto-safety experts are expected to provide testimony in a federal courtroom in Miami. Only a handful of Tesla crash cases have gone to trial: the company has struck confidential accords to resolve several cases that blamed defective technology for deadly accidents.

Yields for long-term debt from Japan and Germany to the UK and France rose on Monday as growing concern over widening fiscal deficits dented demand. The yield on Japan's 30-year notes jumped the most in two months and those on similar-maturity German bunds flirted with their loftiest levels in 14 years. For these countries fiscal concerns are usurping central-bank interest-rate policies as the main factor to watch. While the selloff is less pronounced in the US, 30-year yields there still touched the highest in a month.

CoreWeave is expanding a data center that is projected to double the electricity needs of a city near Dallas, another example of the strains that AI workloads are placing on the US power supply. Local officials have grappled with how to handle the increased stress on the electricity grid from the project, according to a late 2024 presentation and emails seen by Bloomberg. The site is being developed by Core Scientific and will be used by OpenAI in Denton, Texas. Last week, CoreWeave announced it would acquire Core Scientific for about $9 billion, in part, to gain direct control of its data centers aimed at supplying AI work.

Brazil has yet to hear a response from Washington about an offer it made in trade talks two months ago, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump slapped much higher tariffs on Brazil last week.

Speaking to reporters at the presidential palace, Alckmin said President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had set up a task force to start discussing a response with business leaders on Tuesday.

Last week, Trump imposed what he called a reciprocal tariff targeting Latin America's largest economy, rising to 50% from 10% starting in August, and demanded an end to the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup.

Alckmin added on Monday that the Brazilian government would also seek talks with U.S. companies affected by the measure.

He said the government had not yet asked for a delay or reduction in the new tariffs after Trump's announcement, but was instead engaging with the most-affected industries to ensure the private sector mobilizes and coordinates with U.S. counterparts to help reverse Trump's measure.

Lula will sign on Monday a decree setting criteria for his government's response to foreign trade measures hurting the Brazilian economy, his chief of staff Rui Costa told journalists earlier in the day.

His decree regulating the trade reciprocity law, which Brazil's Congress passed in April, should be published in the official gazette on Tuesday, Costa added.

Daily trading in Bitcoin Ordinals reached its most active level since December 6, 2024, with CryptoSlam data showing $11.5 million in sales on July 14.

The data also highlighted more than 8,000 unique buyers versus approximately 3,000 unique sellers, representing the widest buyer/seller gap in five months.

The surge places the sales volume curve above every reading printed this year while pulling the buyer count to its highest point since late November.

Activity has been advancing for more than a week. CryptoSlam’s seven‑day dashboard lists $25.8 million in Ordinals sales, a 116% jump from the previous seven‑day window, despite a sharp decrease in buyers and sellers.

Notably, the wash volume increased by 42%, but represented only 1% of the total volume in the period.

Furthermore, although the number of buyers and sellers decreased, the dollar-denominated average sale value increased nearly 40% in July.

Despite the increase in selling volumes, Ordinals have been registering a significant slump since February, when they last recorded over $100 million in monthly volume.

As of July 14, Ordinals’ trading volume hit nearly $39 million. It has the momentum to surpass June’s $58.1 million, but with the current average daily transaction count of 4,012, it is likely to fall short of $100 million.

Considering the average transaction currently sits at $694.05, the Ordinals market could add $47.3 million in volume for July, potentially taking the total to over $86 million.

The 24‑hour collection leaderboard shows “Uncategorized Ordinals” at the top with $8.27 million in turnover, 1,051% above the previous day.

CryptoSlam classified these tokens as assets not tied to any named collection, meaning an array of smaller or freshly minted sets likely fueled the move.

On the weekly timeframe, the volume of uncategorized collections increased by roughly 1,900%, surpassing $8.4 million.

Since the bucket captures many independent issuances, the number suggests that a concentrated interest in a handful of micro‑caps can push the aggregate figure sharply higher when liquidity improves.

The lack of a single dominant project in the current market phase contrasts with last autumn, when two top‑10 collections accounted for more than 40% of volume.

As of press time, no named collection, other than the uncategorized pool, captured more than a single-digit share of daily turnover, based on CryptoSlam’s rankings screens.

Bitcoin Puppets recorded the highest daily volume among named collections, with the total amounting to $263,148, representing 7.6%. Runestone trailed close behind with $236,813 (6.8%).

Over the last seven days, NodeMonkes appears as the largest named collection in volume, amassing nearly $1.5 million. However, it represents only 5.6% of the total.

Betting on Mexico’s currency has paid off for investors even amid Donald Trump’s trade war.

The peso is up more than 11% this year, beating all regional peers, even as it dipped Monday following the latest tariff news — a threat of a 30% levy announced over the weekend. It is also one of the best performing in emerging markets.

Mexico’s high interest rates and President Claudia Sheinbaum’s tempered approach toward Trump have helped lure in cash from investors reallocating money away from the US. And after months of repeated delays on the implementation of tariffs, money managers have grown more complacent, with reactions to fresh announcements largely contained as they look past Trump’s threats to focus on the medium-term outlook.

“Markets know the drill,” said Marco Oviedo, a senior strategist at XP Investimentos in Sao Paulo. “The only risk that I see is if the Mexican government fails to deliver something that Trump wants on drug control that might leave tariffs high for longer or negotiations in limbo.”

Mexico’s strong economic ties to the US have also worked in the peso’s favor. The US doesn’t intend to apply the 30% rate to USMCA-compliant goods, a White House official said on Saturday. The administration has previously said it will keep the exemption for Canada.

Although Mexican officials were taken aback by Trump’s latest tariff threat, US Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson said Saturday in Mexico City that Sheinbaum and Trump have a “wonderful relationship” and no partnership should be easier than between their two countries.

Sheinbaum said Monday during her daily press conference that her government expects to reach a tariff deal with the US before an Aug. 1 deadline and has a plan if talks fail. She’s expected to meet later today with a Mexican trade negotiating team that was in Washington on Friday discussing the issue.

The country’s rate differentials are another factor helping prop up the currency. The central bank has been cautious when lowering interest rates, keeping the peso on the radar of carry traders who borrow in lower-yielding currencies to buy those that offer higher yields. One-week implied volatility in the peso, which spiked amid US elections last year and again in April amid tariff threats, has remained largely subdued.

After delivering a half-point cut that left the key rate at 8% last month, Governor Victoria Rodriguez embraced the likelihood of smaller reductions going forward in a July 9 speech. That helped the peso inch higher last week, outperforming as developing-world currencies slipped amid the latest barrage of tariff announcements.

The rally in Mexico has gone beyond the currency. Local bonds and stocks have also gained in the wake of Trump’s so-called Liberation Day on April 2 amid a positive backdrop for emerging markets as the dollar slips.

“The peso is trading incredibly well in the face of this,” said Eric Fine, portfolio manager for emerging markets debt at Van Eck Associates. “This reaction has many explanations, but EMFX and interest rates have had a great year despite tariff-dominated news flow.”

“The proposal lacks clarity, particularly whether it replaces or supplements the existing 25% fentanyl-related levy, and does not address the treatment of USMCA-compliant goods. This omission is notable given that, as of May, approximately 83% of US imports from Mexico were exempt from tariffs due to USMCA provisions. The high amount of exemptions provides a large buffer to the potential fallout from Trump’s trade letter.”

US stocks rose on Monday with the Nasdaq (^IXIC) closing at a fresh record as Wall Street ultimately shrugged off renewed trade tensions and looked ahead to a key inflation report and the first wave of second quarter earnings.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) finished the mostly muted trading day up around 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added around 0.3% to secure yet another all-time closing high.

Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC-USD) spiked above $123,000 for the first time as investors greeted the open of Congress's "Crypto Week," but the asset dropped back below $120,000 later in the day. Stocks with crypto ties also rallied as the House of Representatives weighs three key pieces of crypto-related legislation.

Earlier in the day, investors showed a diminished appetite for risk after President Trump said Saturday that the US will impose 30% tariffs on goods from the EU and Mexico from Aug. 1. The increased pressure on key US trading partners is testing the market's previous resilience in the face of escalating tariff tensions. Faith in the idea that Trump will back off from threatened hikes helped lift stocks to all-time highs last week.

Officials from the EU and Mexico are pushing to continue negotiations with the US in hopes of securing a lower rate via a new deal. The hiked tariffs as they stand are seen as likely to remake global trade relations and add to existing inflationary pressures.

That adds uncertainty ahead of consumer inflation data scheduled for release this week. Investors are looking to the June CPI report on Tuesday for signs of how earlier rounds of tariffs are impacting prices across the US economy. The reading will feed into expectations for the Fed's decision on interest rates due in just over two weeks.

Meanwhile, Trump ratcheted up tensions with Russia over the war in Ukraine on Monday, threatening to impose "secondary" tariffs of up to 100% on the country. He also said the US would provide weapons to Ukraine.

Earnings season kicks into swing this week, with all the major US banks due to report results starting on Tuesday. Investors are showing interest in IPO and M&A markets, while Wells Fargo (WFC) reports after being freed from a decade of stringent regulatory restrictions.