Vietnam’s Pangasius Fish Rises as Europe Faces Whitefish Crisis

Economic

Summary:

As the EU grapples with a severe whitefish shortage, Vietnam’s pangasius emerges as a key alternative, generating nearly USD 150 million in export revenue in the first 10 months of 2025...

Europe’s Whitefish Shortage Opens a Strategic Door for Vietnam

The European Union is experiencing a growing supply crisis in the whitefish market, particularly for traditionally dominant species such as cod and haddock. This shortage, caused by a combination of natural constraints, geopolitical tensions, and sanctions on Russian imports, has led to price surges and market instability. Amid this disruption, Vietnam's pangasius also known as tra fish has become a strategic substitute, not only due to its affordability and processing versatility but also because Vietnam is the only country to have developed an industrialized pangasius export sector.

Cod, the staple of Europe’s whitefish consumption, is now in short supply due to dramatically reduced catch volumes in the Barents and Norwegian Seas. While some producers have attempted to bridge the gap with farmed cod, production capacity remains insufficient to meet demand. In parallel, EU sanctions on Russia have disrupted established whitefish import flows, creating a perfect storm of scarcity.

This structural gap has elevated the importance of alternative whitefish proteins. The demand-side pressure is not merely cyclical it reflects a shift in the underlying supply architecture of the EU seafood market. As a result, the conditions have generated a cause-effect dynamic: with cod in decline, demand is redirected toward viable substitutes like pangasius.

Vietnam’s Tra Fish Gains Ground Despite Short-Term Fluctuations

Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the EU reached USD 149 million in the first 10 months of 2025, marking a modest 3% year-on-year increase. However, monthly figures reveal volatility. October 2025 exports totaled USD 15 million, an 11% decrease compared to October 2024. This month-on-month contraction is indicative of economic caution among EU importers amid uncertainty, not a reversal of broader trends.

The divergence among member states further illustrates this point. The Netherlands, a traditional leader in EU imports, showed slight stagnation with a 2% drop. Germany weakened more significantly, down 32%. In contrast, Spain’s imports surged 75% in October, and Belgium posted a 1% rise for the month and a 19% increase year-to-date. These figures suggest a geographic shift in demand within the EU, with Southern and Western Europe presenting new growth frontiers.

Vietnam’s Competitive Edge: Price, Scale, and Processing Capability

Vietnam's unique position stems from its industrial-scale pangasius industry, capable of providing consistent, cost-effective supply that meets diverse processing requirements. Pangasius aligns well with EU importers’ need for flexible, affordable alternatives in an increasingly constrained market. This is not a correlation but a causal advantage: the scale and standardization of Vietnam’s pangasius supply chain directly meet the structural needs created by whitefish shortfalls.

Furthermore, Vietnamese producers are increasingly aligning with EU sustainability requirements. Certification schemes such as ASC have helped raise product credibility, enhancing market acceptance. This alignment between regulatory expectations and supply readiness further entrenches Vietnam’s role as a reliable partner.

Consumer Trends Shift Toward Value-Added Convenience

Another dynamic favoring Vietnam is the changing consumer landscape in Europe. There is growing preference for ready-to-cook, value-added seafood products. Vietnamese exporters have responded with processed lines such as breaded pangasius, pre-cooked fillets, and high-grade cut portions. These offerings not only cater to evolving retail needs but also improve profit margins for exporters.

This shift creates a virtuous cycle: increased consumer demand for convenience encourages greater adoption of pangasius, which in turn reinforces its presence in EU distribution networks.

Strategic Moment for Expansion

Vietnam’s nearly USD 150 million in EU pangasius exports in 2025 is not merely a numerical achievement it reflects a strategic positioning in a reshaping global seafood market. With traditional whitefish supply chains under stress, Vietnam’s combination of industrial capability, competitive pricing, and increasing alignment with sustainability and consumer trends positions it uniquely to fill the vacuum.

While short-term fluctuations remain, the long-term trajectory favors Vietnamese pangasius as a stable, scalable solution for Europe’s whitefish needs. The challenge now lies in capitalizing on this momentum diversifying products, deepening market presence in Spain, Belgium, and France, and continuing to lead in sustainable aquaculture practices.

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Economic

Indonesia Resists US Efforts to Limit China Ties Through Trade Clause

Trade negotiations between the United States and Indonesia have encountered a significant stumbling block, as Jakarta reportedly opposes the inclusion of a so-called “poison pill” clause designed to restrict its economic engagement with China. The clause, modeled after provisions in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), would allow Washington to impose punitive measures if Indonesia were to pursue trade agreements with China deemed unfavorable by the US.

Indonesia’s refusal reflects a strong desire to maintain strategic autonomy and an independent foreign policy. As one of Southeast Asia’s largest economies, Indonesia depends heavily on foreign investment and international trade, with both the US and China being pivotal partners. The proposed restriction is seen by Jakarta as a threat to this balancing act, potentially reducing the country’s economic flexibility and undermining its non-aligned foreign policy tradition.

This opposition indicates a causal relationship: restrictive clauses aimed at curbing China’s influence could directly impede Indonesia’s ability to maneuver diplomatically and economically. Jakarta’s response demonstrates that economic coercion even indirect can backfire when it threatens national policy independence.

Geopolitical Competition Shapes Trade Dynamics

This dispute underscores the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, where both powers are competing for influence. The proposed clause is part of Washington’s broader strategy to constrain Beijing’s rise by discouraging partner nations from entering into deeper economic cooperation with China.

However, analysts suggest that Indonesia remains especially cautious of any commitments that might harm its substantial trade relationship with China. As China is not only Indonesia’s largest trading partner but also a major investor in infrastructure projects across the archipelago, any limitation would likely result in long-term economic and diplomatic consequences.

Contradictory Trade Terms Raise Fairness Concerns

While the US is pushing for restrictive conditions, the terms outlined in the draft bilateral agreement appear asymmetrical. Under the current framework revealed in July 2025, Indonesia agreed to eliminate 99% of tariffs on US goods and pledged significant purchases including USD 15 billion in oil and gas, USD 4.5 billion in cultural products, and USD 3.2 billion in aircraft. Meanwhile, all Indonesian exports to the US would be subject to a 19% tariff.

This imbalance could be viewed not just as a trade-off but as a potential leverage mechanism to steer Indonesia’s future trade decisions. The causal logic here suggests that trade benefits are being offered as conditional incentives, tied to political alignment rather than purely economic interests.

Tensions Cast Shadow Over Broader Indo-Pacific Strategy

The outcome of these talks could set a precedent for how the US approaches trade negotiations in the region, particularly with countries seeking to remain neutral amid great power competition. How Washington and Jakarta reconcile their differences over the poison pill clause will likely influence the broader structure of Indo-Pacific economic alliances and determine the durability of US-Indonesian economic cooperation.

Indonesia’s resistance may also inspire other regional players to reevaluate the long-term strategic costs of trade agreements that infringe upon their sovereignty. In this light, the clause’s rejection is not merely a bilateral dispute, but part of a larger pattern of pushback against binary alignments in a multipolar global economy.

As the Indo-Pacific becomes a focal point of US-China rivalry, Indonesia is asserting its right to diversify partnerships without external constraint. While the US seeks to embed strategic considerations into economic agreements, Indonesia’s resistance illustrates that emerging economies are not willing to trade autonomy for access. The challenge ahead lies in finding a balance where economic cooperation does not come at the expense of geopolitical neutrality something Indonesia is determined to defend.

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Economic

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Plant Nears Restart After More Than a Decade

Japan is preparing to resume operations at the world’s largest nuclear power facility, the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, signaling a significant step in the country's gradual return to nuclear energy. The restart of units 6 and 7, managed by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), is scheduled for January 2026, contingent upon approval from Niigata’s local council, which is expected to vote during its December 2 session.

Before the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011, nuclear energy contributed around 30% of Japan’s electricity supply. However, following the radiation leak, the government mandated a nationwide suspension of all nuclear reactors for safety reviews. Since 2015, only 14 of the country's 33 reactors have resumed operations, with 11 more under review. The cautious pace illustrates a reactive shift in energy governance driven by safety and public trust concerns, a clear causal response to a major technological disaster.

The recent endorsement by Niigata Governor Hideyo Hanazumi marks a political turning point. His decision to allow TEPCO to restart two reactors reflects changing attitudes at the provincial leadership level and a potential recalibration of Japan’s energy mix to reduce fossil fuel dependence. However, ultimate implementation still hinges on local legislative approval, underscoring the importance of decentralized political support in Japan’s energy policy.

TEPCO’s Revival Plan and Safety Compliance

TEPCO, which operated the ill-fated Fukushima plant, has been pushing for the restart of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa for years. In October, the company announced that it had completed safety checks and fuel loading for reactor 6, with key operational criteria deemed compliant. This suggests a cause-effect link between improved safety systems and growing institutional confidence in resuming operations.

Nevertheless, TEPCO’s reputation remains controversial. Community skepticism continues to shadow the company’s plans, partly due to its recent proposal to make financial contributions to local economic development in exchange for project support. Critics argue that such offers resemble financial coercion, undermining the legitimacy of public consent and fueling concerns about transparency.

Public Opinion Remains Deeply Divided

Despite official momentum, local sentiment remains fractured. Anti-nuclear groups and some residents have voiced opposition to the restart, citing unresolved fears over nuclear safety and transparency in TEPCO’s conduct. Public surveys reveal that resistance persists, though exact figures were not disclosed. This indicates a correlation between past nuclear trauma and persistent distrust toward industry stakeholders, particularly when those stakeholders also control crisis-era plants.

If approved, the restart of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa’s reactors will mark a major development in Japan’s post-Fukushima energy realignment. The move carries significant economic and strategic implications, including the potential to stabilize energy supply and reduce import reliance. However, it also exposes deep-seated public anxieties and governance dilemmas. The balancing act between safety assurances, energy independence, and community consent will determine whether Japan can achieve a sustainable return to nuclear power, or whether societal resistance will stall further progress.

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Economic

Commodity

Strong Market Signals Point to Historic Gold Rally in 2026

Major financial institutions are increasingly confident that gold prices will reach unprecedented levels in 2026, as key structural drivers remain firmly in place. These include the ongoing trend of net gold purchases by central banks and a widely anticipated continuation of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, both of which reinforce investor demand for the non-yielding metal.

Deutsche Bank has sharply revised its 2026 gold price forecast upward to an average of USD 4,450 per ounce, from a previous estimate of USD 4,000. The projected trading range is set between USD 3,950 and USD 4,950. According to Michael Hsueh, the bank’s strategist, recent technical indicators suggest that the correction phase has concluded, while stable investment flows and a persistent supply-demand imbalance highlighted by consistent third-quarter central bank buying continue to support price growth. This reflects a causal relationship between structural gold accumulation and bullish price momentum.

Historical Surge Underpinned by Macroeconomic Factors

This optimistic outlook follows a year in which gold experienced a historically significant surge, briefly topping USD 4,380 per ounce before undergoing a short-term correction. The early 2025 rally was fueled by investor flight to safety amid geopolitical instability and persistent doubts over the long-term strength of the US dollar. These conditions have created a strong psychological foundation for continued inflows into gold markets, where both institutional and retail investors seek security against systemic volatility.

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven echoed Deutsche Bank’s optimism, projecting a nearly 20% increase in gold prices to approximately USD 4,900 by the end of 2026. Struyven attributes this growth to the same factors seen in 2025, particularly the structural shift in central bank behavior following the 2022 freezing of Russian assets. This event fundamentally altered reserve strategies, prompting a diversification away from US dollar holdings. In addition, the Fed’s dovish policy trajectory lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yield-bearing assets like gold, reinforcing investor interest. The analysis here indicates a causal mechanism: declining interest rates reduce holding costs, thus increasing gold’s attractiveness.

Bank of America, meanwhile, has provided one of the most aggressive forecasts, suggesting gold could touch USD 5,000 per ounce. Michael Widmer, Head of Metals Research, contextualized the recent price pullback as a normal feature of historical upcycles. He noted that past gold bull markets since the 1970s have commonly included temporary corrections of around 10%, followed by substantial recoveries a pattern consistent with current price dynamics.

China’s Central Bank Maintains Strategic Accumulation

The People's Bank of China has emerged as a significant player in this global trend. October marked the twelfth consecutive month of gold purchases, adding another 30,000 ounces and lifting total reserves to 74.09 million ounces, valued at approximately USD 297.2 billion. This sustained accumulation provides a strong foundation of structural demand that underpins global price levels. The implication here is not merely correlation but a direct influence: China’s steady purchases provide floor support and add upward pressure in times of market uncertainty.

Since resuming its rate-cutting cycle in September following two previous 25-basis-point reductions earlier in the year the Fed has strengthened market conviction that interest rates will continue to decline into 2026. CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows over 80% market consensus for further cuts at the next policy meeting. This anticipated monetary easing contributes to the positive sentiment surrounding gold, as lower rates tend to weaken the dollar and encourage shifts into hard assets.

In sum, the confluence of central bank accumulation, geopolitical uncertainty, investor demand, and a dovish US monetary policy creates ideal conditions for gold’s sustained rally into 2026. The causal relationships between structural demand, lower interest rates, and price momentum suggest that gold’s next chapter will be shaped not just by short-term speculation, but by enduring shifts in how global institutions manage reserves and hedge against macroeconomic risk. The consensus across Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America highlights a rare alignment in market outlooks, signaling that the USD 5,000 threshold may no longer be speculative it could be imminent.

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Economic

E-Commerce Tax Loophole Puts UK Retailers at a Disadvantage

For years, UK retailers have faced a growing threat from ultra-cheap e-commerce platforms such as Shein, Temu, and AliExpress, which ship goods directly from Chinese manufacturers to British consumers. These parcels have been able to bypass customs duties thanks to a loophole that exempts packages valued under £135 (approximately USD 179). As a result, international sellers gained a significant price advantage over local brick-and-mortar stores that must pay import taxes.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently announced in Parliament that the government will end this competitive imbalance by applying customs duties to all imported parcels, regardless of value. The reform aims to level the playing field between local and foreign sellers. However, the full implementation is not scheduled until March 2029, with consultations running through March 2026. This sluggish approach has drawn sharp criticism from domestic retailers and trade bodies.

Retail Industry's Strong Opposition to the Delay

The British Retail Consortium’s director general, Helen Dickinson, stressed the urgency of the matter, noting that nearly 1.6 million parcels are currently exploiting the loophole daily double the volume from the previous year. She warned that further delays will deepen losses for domestic retailers, many of whom are already under pressure. Her argument highlights a cause-effect relationship: the continued influx of duty-free parcels directly contributes to declining competitiveness and financial strain among UK retailers.

In contrast, other major economies have acted more swiftly. The United States, which is the largest market for Shein and Temu, ended its tax exemption on imports under USD 800 starting in May 2024 for goods from China and Hong Kong, later extending it globally. This rapid policy shift initially disrupted logistics, evidenced by over one million packages being delayed at JFK airport due to short notice.

Similarly, the European Union accelerated its own plans to eliminate the VAT exemption for goods under €150, moving the deadline forward from 2028 to 2026. South Africa and Brazil have already imposed VAT and a 20% import tax respectively on low-value international purchases. The UK's deferred timeline risks isolating it from these aligned international trade standards, as emphasized by retailers like Sainsbury’s and Boohoo, who argue the delay invites continued fiscal losses and undermines regulatory fairness.

Implications for Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior

According to customs tax expert Andrew Thurston, removing the duty-free threshold will raise the cost of direct international shipping, narrowing the price difference between imported goods and domestic offerings. This shift could gradually nudge consumers back toward local stores, assuming prices become more competitive and product availability remains strong. The implication here is a correlation: while higher tariffs won’t guarantee behavioral change, they are expected to reduce the appeal of cheap imports, especially if combined with other pro-retail initiatives.

In summary, while the UK government’s intent to reform e-commerce tariffs aligns with global regulatory movements, its protracted timeline risks continued damage to domestic retail and long-term loss of tax revenue. The causal link between delayed reform and market distortion is evident in the mounting daily volume of untaxed parcels and shrinking sales for domestic retailers. Unless action is expedited, the UK may find itself out of step with global trade enforcement trends, to the detriment of its retail sector.

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Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukrainian forces are defending their positions and hunting down sabotage groups in the northeastern city of Kupiansk despite Moscow's statements that its troops are fully in control of it, Ukraine's top commander said on Friday.

Russia seized Kupiansk in the first weeks of the 2022 invasion, but Ukrainian troops recaptured it later that year. Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week it was back in Moscow's hands and on Thursday, while visiting Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia, he said the city was "fully in our hands."

Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi rejected the claims.

"Our soldiers continue to conduct both defensive and search and strike actions," Syrskyi wrote on Telegram after visiting the area in Kharkiv region.

"These actions take place daily as part of comprehensive measures to stabilise the situation in Kupiansk. The scale of lies from the Russian leadership about the situation in Kupiansk is astonishing."

He said Ukrainian forces were "holding designated lines and intensifying fire pressure to block the enemy's supply routes."

RUSSIANS ALSO TARGET POKROVSK

Moscow's forces control about one-fifth of Ukraine's territory amid diplomatic efforts to settle the war, including a peace plan put forward by the United States and now including input from Ukraine's European allies.

In addition to the largely destroyed city of Kupiansk, another Russian target is Pokrovsk, a logistics hub farther south in Donetsk region.

Putin said on Thursday that Russian forces controlled 70% of Pokrovsk, known in Russia by its Soviet-era name, Krasnoarmeysk.

On Friday, the Russian Defence Ministry said its forces had captured two outlying districts of the city.

Syrskyi on Thursday said Ukrainian troops had been blocking attempts by Russian forces to stage new assaults on Pokrovsk and the adjacent town of Myrnohrad. The Ukrainian military, in a late evening report on Friday, said Russian forces had launched 65 attacks to try to pierce Ukrainian defences in the area.

Russia has also been making gains further south in Zaporizhzhia region.

The Ukrainian military blog DeepState, which uses open-source reports to track the positions of both armies, said Ukrainian forces were trying to set up an additional defensive line around the town of Huliaipole to withstand Russian attacks.

Source: Reuters

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Commodity

Political

Oil posted a fourth monthly loss as traders looked ahead to an OPEC+ meeting this weekend and assessed how the potential of easing geopolitical tensions from Kyiv to Caracas may impact an oversupplied market.

West Texas Intermediate edged down to settle below $59 a barrel, after earlier gaining as much as 1.7%, to close out the longest streak of monthly drops since March 2023. The commodity slid to intra-day lows minutes before settlement as The New York Times reported that US President Donald Trump and Venezuelan counterpart Nicolás Maduro discussed a potential meeting in a call last week. A de-escalation between the Trump administration and the oil-rich South American country would sap a major risk premium out of oil prices.

The late-day dip capped off a choppy trading session, marked by thin holiday volumes and an hours-long outage on Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s trading platform that roiled global markets. The halt — which the company said was a result of a cooling issue in a data center — also impacted gasoline and diesel futures that are due to expire on Friday. Oil Notches Fourth Monthly Drop on Glut as WTI Trading Resumes_1

Oil Notches Fourth Monthly Drop on Glut as WTI Trading Resumes_1

OPEC+ nations are set to meet virtually on Sunday and will probably stick with a plan to pause output increases in early 2026, delegates said. With that decision locked in, a key focus may be a long-term review of members’ capacity.

US oil has fallen 18% this year, with prices hurt by expectations for a global glut after OPEC+ restarted capacity, while drillers outside the alliance also added supplies.

On Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that US President Donald Trump’s proposals for ending Moscow’s war could be the basis for future agreements and expressed an openness to talks, though sticking points that led to stalemates in previous rounds remain. US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow next week.

The peace talks have hit other hurdles, including an embezzlement scandal involving several of Kyiv’s leading public figures. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday said the nation’s lead negotiator in peace talks, Andriy Yermak, resigned after becoming ensnared in the on-going corruption probe.

An end to the conflict would have significant ramifications for the oil market. Russia is one of the world’s leading producers and its flows are subject to heavy Western sanctions. Any easing of curbs following a deal could unleash restricted supplies to buyers such as China, India and Turkey.

“It may take some time for a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal to go through as Russia may look to store up some barrels instead of rushing to sell them,” said Mukesh Sahdev, the founder and chief executive officer of XAnalysts Pty, an energy market analysis firm. That could make prompt prices slightly bullish, before it gets bearish, he said.