Vietnam Strengthens Bilateral Trade Negotiations With the United States: Positive Signs for Future Collaboration

Economic

Summary:

Vietnam has been prioritized by the U.S. for tariff negotiations, with technical-level discussions expected to begin this week, signaling an opportunity to enhance bilateral trade relations....

Context Of The Bilateral Tariff Negotiations Between Vietnam And The United States

On May 1, 2025, a technical delegation from Vietnam is scheduled to travel to the United States to engage with U.S. agencies regarding bilateral tariff negotiations. Vietnam has been placed among the priority countries for these discussions, alongside India, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia. This selection highlights the strategic importance the U.S. attributes to Vietnam within its broader global trade policy. Furthermore, it creates potential to adjust tariff barriers, thereby easing access for Vietnamese products into the American market.

Current Trade Dynamics And Emerging Opportunities

During the April 2025 trade promotion conference held by Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade, Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, Vietnam’s Commercial Counselor in the U.S., emphasized the ongoing challenges in bilateral trade due to tariff issues. Despite these obstacles, leading American retailers such as Walmart and Target, with approximately 30% of their imports sourced from Vietnam, along with Costco and HomeDepot, have expressed optimism and trust in Vietnam’s ability to negotiate successfully.

The mutual relationship between market expectations from American retailers and Vietnam’s negotiation efforts illustrates that as confidence in Vietnam grows, so does the political and economic momentum needed to finalize a trade agreement. This reveals a parallel trend where positive commercial sentiment aligns with advancing diplomatic initiatives.

Clear Indications Of American Engagement

According to Mr. Hung, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) published a press release regarding the bilateral telephone conversation with Vietnam merely one day after the meeting, in sharp contrast to the nine-week delay following a similar agreement with India. This quick communication highlights the urgency and seriousness with which the U.S. regards its negotiations with Vietnam.

Moreover, the USTR’s invitation for a Vietnamese delegation to engage during the American holiday period further reinforces the strong priority the U.S. places on this dialogue. The speed of these actions correlates with the degree of importance assigned to the bilateral partnership.

Progress In Initiating High-Level Bilateral Talks

On April 23, 2025, Vietnamese Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien held a phone meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson L. Greer, officially launching bilateral economic and trade negotiations. This development coincides with notable growth in trade: Vietnamese exports to the U.S. in the first quarter of 2025 reached $31.4 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, while imports from the U.S. totaled $4.1 billion, up 21%.

The concurrent rise in trade flows and political commitment reflects a reinforcing pattern, where expanding economic ties drive deeper governmental collaboration to facilitate even broader market access.

Risks Related To Trade Defense Measures

However, Mr. Hung also warned that rising tariff protectionism in other countries could intensify competition against Vietnamese goods. If Vietnamese companies fail to fully cooperate in providing information for trade defense cases, they risk facing greater legal vulnerabilities.

There is a direct relationship here: thorough cooperation during investigations reduces the likelihood of adverse rulings, protecting Vietnamese business interests and maintaining their competitive position in the U.S. market.

Future Prospects And Strategic Opportunities

Major U.S. distribution groups are also considering participation in the "Vietnam International Sourcing and Export Forum Ho Chi Minh City 2025," organized by the Ministry of Industry and Trade in September. Their interest signals both optimism about Vietnam's role in global supply chains and a strategic shift toward sourcing diversification amid global supply chain restructuring.

Should the tariff negotiations succeed, the flow of trade between Vietnam and the United States would likely accelerate further, laying the groundwork for sustainable export growth and deeper economic integration.

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

London stocks had turned positive by midday on Tuesday but gains were muted as investors waded through a deluge of corporate releases from the likes of BP, HSBC and AB Foods.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.1% at 8,425.59.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "Although the blue-chip index has made back a chunk of the losses from the tariff induced turmoil, amid some hopes that tariff pain will be diluted, it’s flatlining as optimism starts to disappear.

"There’s a lack of clarity over how the China-US negotiations will unfold. It appears both sides are waiting for the other to take the initiative, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying it was up to China to de-escalate the situation.

"Amid the standoff, worries about the effect on global growth are lingering, and it’s showing up in oil prices, with Brent Crude falling back by around 1% as projections for energy demand are scaled back."

On home shores, the latest data from Kantar showed that supermarket sales jumped in April as shoppers shrugged off rising food inflation to stock up for Easter.

Take-home sales rose 6.5% in the four weeks to 20 April, Easter Sunday. Easter fell unusually late this year.

Grocery inflation, meanwhile, edged up to 3.8%, up on last month's 3.5% and well above October’s low of 1.4%. The fastest-rising prices were seen in butter and spreads, coffee and chocolate.

However, despite chocolate confectionary prices surging 17.4%, spending was up 11% compared to the four weeks to Easter last year.

Among individual grocers, sales sparked 6% at Tesco in the 12 weeks to 20 April, giving the UK’s largest supermarket a market share of 27.8%. Sales rose 4.4% at J Sainsbury, taking its market share to 15.3%.

Discounters Aldi and Lidl also saw rapid growth, with sales 5.9% and 10.1% higher respectively, while online-only Ocado Group reported a 11.8% hike, the biggest increase across all grocers.

The three now have market shares of 11.0%, 8.0% and 1.9% respectively.

Asda, with 12.3% of the grocery market, was the only chain to see sales decline, down 3.8% over the period.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight, said: "The grocers have been sharpening their pricing strategies to stay competitive in the fight for footfall. They’ve invested in price cuts, which were the main driver of promotional growth. Often linked to loyalty cards, spending on these deals grew by £347m."

In equity markets, Primark owner Associated British Foods slumped as it said first-half profits fell by a tenth with sales slightly behind last year, as growth in retail and food ingredients was offset by a "frustrating" performance in the sugar division.

Adjusted pre-tax profit totalled £818m in the 24 weeks to 1 March, down from £911m the year before, as group revenues fell 2% to £9.51bn. The interim dividend was unchanged at 20.7p per share.

Beazley was lower as it reiterated its full-year outlook and posted a modest uptick in written premiums but a decline in premium rates on renewal business.

BP lost ground after the oil giant reported lower-than-expected quarterly income as it continued to overhaul its long-term strategy amid tumbling oil prices.

The blue chip said underlying replacement cost profits - its core measure of income - were $1.38bn in the first quarter of 2025. That was an improvement on the previous three months’ $1.17bn, but down sharply on the $2.72bn posted in the first quarter of 2024. It was also below analyst forecasts for $1.53bn.

On the upside, Ladbrokes owner Entain rallied as it reported a strong start to the year with net gaming revenues ahead of expectations and officially appointed interim boss Stella David as its new chief executive.

HSBC was in the black as it posted better-than-expected first-quarter pre-tax profits of $9.5bn and announced a $3bn share buyback. However, the bank also lifted its bad loan provisions in the first quarter, blaming a bleak macroeconomic outlook from higher tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

The lender said it now expects credit losses of $876m, an increase of $202m, with $100m set aside to cover Hong Kong’s commercial property sector.

Howden Joinery surged as it announced plans to open 20 to 25 new depots in the UK this year and refurbish around 60 older locations and said that trading in the first four months of the year was in line with expectations.

Builders’ merchant Travis Perkins gained even as it reported a drop in first-quarter sales, saying that trading remained challenging.

Source: Sharecast

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Adam

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures were mixed early Tuesday following a volatile session to start the week. The S&P 500 ended Monday flat (+0.1%), while the Dow gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%. All three indexes traded sharply lower intraday—both the S&P and Nasdaq were down more than 1% at session lows—before reversing higher into the close.

Traders appear to be treating dips as buying opportunities, bolstered by ajamesjamesjapositive start to earnings season and speculation over potential tariff relief for automakers under a possible Trump administration. Auto stocks caught a bid Monday after reports suggested Trump may ease tariffs on foreign car parts. Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies report this week, with Big Tech set to take center stage midweek.

Key Economic Releases

Tuesday (Apr 29)

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (13:00 GMT)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence (14:00 GMT)

JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 GMT)

These reports could move markets, especially consumer confidence and JOLTS, as traders assess demand strength and labor market tightness heading into key earnings.

Notable Earnings

Earnings are front-loaded this week. Tuesday’s schedule features a wide swath of sectors, with attention on:

General Motors (GM) – Beat Q1 EPS ($2.78 vs. $2.74 est) and revenue ($44.02B vs. $43.05B) but pulled guidance due to tariff-related uncertainty. Shares fell 2%.

Coca-Cola (KO) – Reports before the bell, est. EPS $0.72

Pfizer (PFE) – Reports before the bell, est. EPS $0.67

PayPal (PYPL) – Est. EPS $1.16

Meta Platforms (META) – Reports Wednesday

Microsoft (MSFT) – Reports Wednesday

Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) – Due Thursday

Names like Booking Holdings, Starbucks, Visa, and Spotify also report throughout the week, with traders watching consumer spending trends and cloud/digital demand.

Central Bank Activity

No major Fed policy decisions are expected, but Fed commentary may influence expectations:

No Fed speeches or Beige Book scheduled in the notes provided this week.

The Day Ahead Outlook

With about 36% of S&P 500 companies already reported and 73% beating EPS estimates, corporate earnings remain the primary catalyst. That said, tariff-related headlines and consumer-focused economic data could stir sector-specific moves, especially in autos and retail. Traders will be watching Big Tech closely midweek for guidance on AI spending, cloud growth, and margins.

Despite lingering macro headwinds, earnings strength and dip-buying have kept bulls in control. Key risk events include GM’s tariff commentary, consumer confidence data, and results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon.

Source: fxempire

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Glendon

Economic

Stocks

Forex

World stocks and the dollar nudged up on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said it planned to reduce the impact of auto tariffs, a further sign of flexibility on a trade policy that has wreaked havoc on markets in April.

Market focus also turned to early signs of the impact tariff pain is having in terms of economic data and the latest company earnings.

Ahead of the Wall Street open, which stock futures suggested would be firmer, General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab pulled its forecast for the year, reflecting the uncertain effects of Trump's trade war on the industry, even as it reported strong quarterly results.

Canada's dollar dipped against a broadly-firm U.S. currency as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals retained power in Monday's election, but fell short of the majority government he had wanted to help him negotiate tariffs with Trump.

Sentiment across stock markets was generally positive after the U.S. said it would move to reduce the impact of duties imposed on foreign parts in domestically manufactured cars, and keep tariffs on vehicles made abroad from stacking up on other duties.

"There is a focus on the tariff news getting less worse but there's also a focus on hard data and whether the market is right to worry about a recession," said State Street Global Markets' head of macro strategy Michael Metcalfe.

First-quarter U.S. GDP and April jobs figures are due out this week.

While the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab has recovered much of its early April losses after some rollback on Trump's tariffs, it looks set to end the month down around 1.5% in its third straight month of falls.

European stocks rallied around 0.25%, with plenty of earnings to digest. HSBC (HSBA.L), opens new tab launched a $3 billion share buyback after reporting a 25% fall in first-quarter profit, opens new tab and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), opens new tab posted a 39% rise in first-quarter profit.

In other signs of trade-war pain, sports car maker Porsche cut its 2025 outlook on weakness in China and U.S. tariffs, and United Parcel Service (UPS.N), opens new tab reported a fall in quarterly revenue as U.S. trade policies began cooling the demand of shipping.

Mega-caps Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab, Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab and Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab report later this week.

In Asia, Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI), opens new tab was little changed and the mainland blue-chip index (.CSI300), opens new tab fell 0.2%.

TRADE

Markets were rattled overnight when U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC it was "up to China to de-escalate" tariffs and there are growing worries that unless there is a breakthrough, permanent damage will be wrought on supply chains.

China has moved to make some exemptions but has held off on stimulus.

"A true de-escalation (in the U.S.-China trade war) is some time away, in our view," Sat Duhra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Tuesday.

"Someone will blink first, and it is likely to be led by the market as we have seen in the U.S."

JP Morgan analysts said the clock was ticking on hard data resilience, highlighting a 42% peak-to-trough slump in China shipments to the U.S. in the past 10 days, which - if sustained - would reverberate through supply chains.

"A worrying decoupling of U.S.-China trade ... now looks to be underway, and we expect the damage to build in coming weeks and months."

This chart depicts the exchange rate of USD/CAD from Nov. 1, 2024 to April 29, 2025 (Data as of April 29, 2025 08:47 a.m. GMT)

DOLLAR FIRMS

The dollar rose against other major currencies, adding almost 0.5% to 142.66 yen . The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1377, while sterling fell 0.4% to $1.3386 , .

Still, the euro is up 5% in April, set for its largest monthly rise on the dollar in nearly three years, while the greenback's 7% drop on the safe-haven Swiss franc is the largest in a decade.

Canada's dollar traded at around 1.3845 per U.S. dollar , down 0.1% on the day after Monday's election left the Liberal Party short of a majority in parliament.

"A thin parliament lead is hardly positive news for a country’s currency, but Canadian dollar losses have been quite limited in size," ING analysts said in a note.

Elsewhere, gold slipped almost 1% to $3,313 an ounce as the dollar rallied , while Brent crude fell almost 2% to $64.64 a barrel.

Treasury yields edged up in London trade, rising 1.3 basis points to 4.23% .

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Commodity

U.S. Oil Production Reaches Its Zenith

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), America is set to peak its oil production at around 14 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027, after years of dominance as the world's largest producer. This milestone, driven heavily by shale (LTO) production from the Permian Basin, signals both an achievement and the beginning of a slow decline. Production is expected to drop to about 13.8 million bpd by 2030 and further to 11.9 million bpd by 2040 due to resource depletion and rising costs.

The U.S.'s ascent to the top began with the shale revolution, revitalizing output through hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies after decades of stagnation. However, the rapid maturity of shale fields and limited new discoveries indicate that growth has structural limits, setting the stage for future supply tightness.

Global Competition and New Supply Dynamics

Despite America's record-breaking production, few countries can match its levels. Saudi Arabia and Russia remain key competitors but are constrained by geopolitics and less responsive production models. Saudi Arabia has even canceled its plan to raise output capacity to 13 million bpd by 2027, while Russia faces sanctions and logistical challenges due to the Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, non-OPEC growth, notably in Canada, Iraq, and China, remains relatively modest. Global oil supply concentration remains high among a few major players, increasing market vulnerability to political and economic shocks.

Demand Shifts Challenge Oil Market Stability

Global oil demand is expected to peak around 2030, influenced by the surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, particularly in China, and improved fuel efficiency standards. As transportation shifts away from oil dependency, traditional demand pillars weaken, limiting future price surges even in tight supply conditions.

However, emerging markets in the Global South continue to show robust demand growth, creating a bifurcated market landscape: declining demand in developed nations versus rising consumption in developing ones.

Risks of Future Price Volatility

The convergence of slowing U.S. production growth, uncertain OPEC+ policies, and fragile global demand recovery paints a precarious picture for oil prices.If U.S. oil prices fall below the breakeven threshold of around $60/barrel, especially for aging shale plays, American producers may be forced to slash drilling activities, laying off workers and reducing supply abruptly. This could trigger sharp price rebounds, destabilizing the market.

On the flip side, if Saudi Arabia and Russia adopt aggressive production increases for geopolitical reasons, it could flood the market with cheap oil, pushing prices down, hurting EV competitiveness, and destabilizing emerging economies dependent on energy imports.

Geopolitical and Structural Risks Amplify Uncertainty

Beyond basic supply and demand factors, decisions increasingly shaped by non-market considerations—such as U.S.-China trade tensions, OPEC+ political strategies, and Western sanctions against Russia—introduce heightened risks.A future scenario where Saudi Arabia or Russia weaponizes oil supply for strategic gains could lead to sudden price shocks, especially as global spare capacity remains thin.

The world stands at the brink of a new era of oil market instability. While U.S. oil production has provided a buffer in recent years, its approaching peak combined with fragile global supply-demand dynamics suggests greater price volatility ahead.Policymakers, investors, and businesses must prepare for an oil market characterized by sharper swings, geopolitical sensitivities, and a gradual but inevitable structural transition away from traditional fossil fuels.

Source: EIA

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Adam

Stocks

Futures tied to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were slightly lower on Tuesday as investors assessed a slew of corporate earnings and awaited economic data for more clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Supporting futures linked to the blue-chip Dow, Honeywell jumped 5.3% after posting a rise in adjusted profit for the first quarter. United Parcel Service, a bellwether for the economy, gained 2.6% in premarket trading after its quarterly results.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials said President Donald Trump's administration will move to reduce the impact of his automotive tariffs by alleviating some duties imposed on foreign parts in domestically manufactured cars, and keeping tariffs on cars made abroad from piling on top of other ones.

General Motors slipped 2.8% after the automaker pulled its annual forecast due to tariff uncertainty. Shares of automakers Ford and Tesla dipped marginally, reversing earlier gains.

More clarity on the state of U.S.-China trade negotiations was still awaited.

Consumer confidence and JOLTs job openings are also scheduled for the day, while U.S. first-quarter GDP and nonfarm payrolls are expected later in the week.

Four of the "Magnificent Seven" group of megacap stocks - Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon.com - will report quarterly results this week.

"It shouldn't really be especially surprising that participants took something of a 'wait-and-see' approach to proceedings ... with conviction lacking across the board, and markets largely meandering along in a relatively directionless fashion," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

At 06:47 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 104.00 points, or 0.26%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 7 points, or 0.13%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 30.75 points, or 0.16%.

The S&P 500 closed Monday with marginal gains, rising for a fifth straight session in its best winning streak since November. Indexes have clawed back some losses this month on hopes for a de-escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Still, all three major indexes remain down for the year, with the S&P 500 on track to fall about 1.5% this month.

First-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 10.9% from a year ago. That is higher than an early-April estimate for a 7.8% rise, but many companies have warned of the new tariffs impacting their outlook.

NXP Semiconductors NV fell 8.5% after the company only slightly beat expectations for revenue, and announced CEO Kurt Sievers would retire by the end of the year and insider Rafael Sotomayor would succeed him.

U.S.-listed shares of Spotify Technologies plunged 8% after it forecast current-quarter operating profit below Wall Street estimates.

Source: Reuters

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

The euro is slightly lower on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1392, down 0.31% on the day.

German consumer climate hits 6-month high

German consumer confidence remains weak but showed some improvement in April, rising to -20.6. This was higher than the revised -24.3 in March and easily beat the market estimate of -26.0. This was the highest reading since Nov. 2024.

Consumers remain anxious about the negative impact of US tariffs but the domestic political situation has stabilized as a new government is taking shape.

Business confidence also improved in April, rising to 86.9 from 86.7 and beating expectations. This was the highest level since July 2024, as the business sector has reacted positively to the government’s pledge to increase spending on infrastructure and defense. As with consumers, businesses expressed concern about the escalation in global trade tensions.

Markets eye German inflation, retail sales

Germany releases the April inflation on Wednesday. CPI is expected to remain at 0.4% m/m. Annualized, CPI is projected to ease to 2.1% from 2.3% in March and 2.6% in February. Germany’s retail sales are expected to decline by 0.4% m/m in March, after a strong gain of 0.7% a month earlier. A drop in inflation and retail sales would support the case for the European Central Bank continuing lower interest rates.

In the US, the focus will be on employment data in the second half of the week. JOLTS Job Openings, which will be released later today, is expected to ease to 7.48 million from 7.56 million. This would mark a second consecutive deceleration and point to a weakening labor market.

All eyes are on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, which surprised on the upside last month with a gain of 228 thousand, blowing past the forecast of 140 thousand. The market estimate for April nonfarm payrolls stands at 135 thousand.