US Tariff Levels Reach Highest Point Since Early 20th Century

Economic

Summary:

The United States has raised its average tariff rate to 20.1%, the highest sustained level since the 1910s, with a brief spike to 24.8% in May 2025 following President Trump’s retaliatory trade measures...

US Tariffs Return to Historic Highs

New data from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirms that the average US tariff rate now stands at 20.1%, marking its highest sustained point since the 1910s. This figure follows a dramatic rise earlier in 2025 when the administration, under President Donald Trump, implemented sweeping retaliatory tariffs on key trading partners, pushing the average to 24.8% in May a level not seen since 1904.

The escalation began with Trump’s April 2 announcement targeting imports from major economies, particularly China. This was accompanied by subsequent measures that reinforced the upward pressure on tariffs. The peak in May 2025 reflected an intensification of the trade standoff, which was temporarily alleviated by a “trade truce” with China. While the truce reduced immediate tariff burdens, it is set to expire next week, creating uncertainty in trade policy direction.

Impact of New Trade Agreements

The current 20.1% average is influenced by recently signed agreements with the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and other nations. These pacts moderated some of the earlier tariff hikes but kept rates well above the baseline 10% initially set by Washington. This adjustment suggests that while diplomatic negotiations have softened the most extreme measures, protectionist tendencies remain entrenched.

When measured against 2024 trade volumes, today’s tariffs not only exceed the levels of the 1930s when the US maintained tariffs near 20% but also surpass periods associated with economic distress. Economists note that the high tariffs of the 1930s coincided with prolonged economic downturns, raising concerns about similar trade-restrictive impacts on current global commerce.

The data indicates a clear correlation between heightened tariff levels and increased tension in international trade relations. While the spike in May was directly linked to policy announcements and retaliatory measures, the persistence of elevated tariffs reflects broader strategic objectives prioritizing domestic industry protection over trade liberalization. The historical precedent suggests that such sustained levels carry potential risks for both domestic economic growth and global trade stability.

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Economic

A Monumental Investment Amid Political and Trade Pressures

Apple CEO Tim Cook announced an additional $100 billion to its February $500 billion US investment plan, aiming to deepen domestic semiconductor capabilities. The initiative spans raw material sourcing, R&D, data centers, and supplier partnerships, with an emphasis on silicon manufacturing. Apple plans to produce 19 billion chips this year at 24 US plants across 12 states, yet final iPhone assembly will still occur overseas a limitation both Cook and President Trump acknowledge.

This investment arrives as the US–China tech rivalry intensifies and Trump’s tariff policies threaten to raise costs for imported electronics. By highlighting domestic production and partnerships with US-based suppliers such as Broadcom, Texas Instruments, and Corning, Apple positions itself as a politically aligned corporate ally while safeguarding tariff exemptions for its products.

The Reality Behind the $600 Billion Headline

A significant portion of the $600 billion is not new spending. Many projects like TSMC’s Arizona chip plant and Samsung’s US semiconductor expansion were planned years earlier. TSMC, Apple’s largest chip supplier, began Arizona construction in 2020 and has already been producing advanced chips for Apple since late 2024. These facilities fall within TSMC’s $165 billion US investment plan, but their inclusion boosts Apple’s commitment figures.

Apple’s other moves such as $2.5 billion for Corning’s Kentucky plant, wafer sourcing from GlobalWafers in Texas, and collaborations with Applied Materials in Austin enhance domestic supply resilience without the monumental cost of relocating full manufacturing lines from Asia.

Supply Chain Resilience and Market Edge

By diversifying chip and component production into the US, Apple reduces geopolitical risk and strengthens supply continuity for key technologies like 5G modems and image sensors (with Samsung replacing Sony for the iPhone 18). Political goodwill from such commitments can also shield Apple from punitive tariffs, allowing iPhones to remain competitively priced in the US while rivals face higher import costs.

Financially, this approach allows Apple to maintain high margins by avoiding full-scale manufacturing relocation, which would drastically increase production costs. If trade tensions persist, tariff exemptions could give Apple a significant competitive edge in the US smartphone market, potentially expanding its market share.

Caution from Analysts

Market watchers note that the “end-to-end” claim is aspirational. Gartner’s Gaurav Gupta calls full US semiconductor supply chain relocation in four years “impossible.” Jefferies questions whether Apple will actually spend the full $600 billion given its cost structure, suggesting some may include M&A or pre-existing supplier commitments.

Still, HSBC and Bank of America see strategic upside, predicting Apple could protect profitability and outpace competitors in the US if tariffs remain in play. In effect, Apple is using high-profile capital commitments as both a political bargaining chip and a long-term risk management strategy.

If you want, I can now create a side-by-side table showing what part of Apple’s $600B is genuinely new versus what is previously announced or supplier-led, which would make the “real investment” size clearer. This would make the political vs economic value split more transparent. Would you like me to prepare that?

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Record-High Tariffs Signal a Structural Shift in US Trade Policy

The new measures raise average US tariffs to 18.6% up from just 2–3% earlier this year marking a dramatic escalation in protectionist policy. Duties now reach 50% for goods from Brazil and India, and 15% for imports from the EU and Japan, with particularly steep rates planned for Chinese goods, including proposals of up to 145% on certain categories. According to the Yale Budget Lab, the average US household could pay an additional $2,400 annually due to the tariff hikes, with price surges across categories such as footwear (+39%), apparel (+37%), and fresh produce (+7%). Even after supply chain adjustments, prices are projected to remain nearly 20% higher than pre-tariff levels.

Major US retailers, including Walmart, Nike, Costco, and Procter & Gamble, have begun raising prices to offset billions in additional costs. P&G plans a 2.5% price increase on key products to recoup an estimated $1 billion in tariff expenses this year. The toy industry, which imports over 75% of products from China, has already seen a 3.2% price jump between April and June, far outpacing overall inflation. Industry leaders warn that production relocation is unrealistic given decades of supply chain specialization in China.

Automotive prices also face upward pressure. Cox Automotive projects a 9–10% rise for Japanese and Mexican-assembled vehicles, translating to an extra $3,000–$3,500 per unit. General Motors has already reported a $1 billion quarterly hit from tariffs, forcing partial reshoring of operations.

Economic Ripples: Growth and Consumption at Risk

Analysts note that while businesses initially absorbed much of the cost using inventory stockpiles or margin cuts these buffers are depleting. Rising import costs are beginning to filter through to consumer prices, affecting not only discretionary purchases but also essentials like coffee (subject to a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports). The uncertainty surrounding ongoing US–China trade negotiations further complicates corporate pricing strategies.

Recent macroeconomic data already show slower US growth in H1 2025, with weaker consumer spending, hiring, and business investment. Although inflationary effects have so far been concentrated in specific sectors, the breadth of the new tariff package raises the risk of more generalized price pressures in coming quarters.

Strategic Trade Goals Versus Domestic Cost Burden

President Trump frames the tariff escalation as a necessary defense against unfair foreign trade practices, aimed at revitalizing US manufacturing and ushering in a “golden era” of domestic production. However, economists caution that the structural complexity of global supply chains especially for specialized goods limits the speed at which production can be repatriated. Firms such as Gear Motions, despite importing only 5% of inputs, report higher costs and increased export difficulties, underscoring the pervasiveness of tariff impacts.

In the near term, US consumers are likely to bear the brunt through higher retail prices, while the longer-term effectiveness of tariffs in reshoring production remains uncertain. The coming months will test whether domestic manufacturing gains can outweigh the economic drag from reduced household purchasing power.

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Stocks

Broad-Based Gains Led by Technology and Communication Services

For the week ending 8 August, the S&P 500 advanced 2.4%, the Dow Jones rose 1.3%, and the Nasdaq surged 3.9%, marking its 18th record close of 2025 and an 11% year-to-date gain. Friday’s session saw the Dow climb 206.97 points (+0.47%) to 44,175.61, the S&P 500 add 49.45 points (+0.78%) to 6,389.45, and the Nasdaq increase 207.32 points (+0.98%) to 21,450.02.

Technology and communication services led the S&P 500, with Apple jumping 4.2% on Friday and 13.3% for the week its best percentage gain since 2020 after President Donald Trump announced the company would invest an additional $100 billion in the US over four years, bringing total commitments to $600 billion.

Rate-Cut Expectations Lift Sentiment

Weaker US economic data in recent days has reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts. Investors are also reacting to Fed leadership developments, with Trump nominating Stephen Miran aligned with his pro-cut stance to fill a vacant board seat. Bloomberg reported that current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who supported the latest rate cut vote, is emerging as a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets now price in an 89.4% chance of at least a 25 bps cut at the September 2025 meeting, up from 80.3% a week ago, and anticipate at least two cuts by year-end.

Inflation Data to Determine Next Market Move

Despite the rally, some investors warn of a possible pullback if inflation fails to ease. The US CPI report, due 12 August, will be closely watched for clues on the Fed’s policy path. A softer reading could validate market expectations for aggressive cuts, while hotter data might challenge the current bullish narrative.

US–India trade tensions add another layer of uncertainty. Following a US move to raise tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, Indian officials have reportedly paused certain planned purchases from the US, including aircraft orders. While this development has not yet weighed heavily on US equities, extended tensions could affect investor confidence in the coming weeks.

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Commodity

Largest Weekly Decline Since June Amid Supply Concerns

The week ending 8 August saw Brent crude settle at $66.59 per barrel, up just $0.16 on Friday, while WTI was unchanged at $63.88. For the week, Brent fell 4.4% and WTI tumbled 5.1%, marking the sharpest declines in over a month. The selloff was driven by OPEC+’s unexpected reversal of its 2.2 million bpd voluntary production cuts, a move that revived fears of a global oversupply glut just as US tariff measures threaten energy demand.

The market endured four consecutive losing sessions between 4–7 August, with only a slight rebound on the final day after the Kremlin confirmed President Vladimir Putin would meet US President Donald Trump. Traders saw the summit as a possible opening for easing sanctions on Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer, which could reshape energy flows.

Tariffs and Macro Headwinds Add to Market Stress

The OPEC+ output decision coincided with the activation of broad US tariffs, adding another headwind to global demand forecasts. Softer US economic data has amplified concerns that higher trade costs could slow consumption, including energy use. Analysts at FGE NexantECA note that while the diplomatic track offers a potential upside, the near-term bias remains bearish due to swelling supply risks heading into autumn.

Some bullish signals emerged, including US EIA data showing a 3-million-barrel crude draw against expectations for a build, suggesting domestic demand remains healthy. Additionally, Saudi Arabia raised its official selling prices for Asian buyers, signalling confidence in regional demand despite higher OPEC+ output.

Market direction in the coming week will hinge on three fronts: developments in US–Russia trade and sanctions policy, updated monthly oil market reports from EIA, OPEC, and the IEA, and fresh US inflation readings (CPI, PPI) that could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch warns that absent tougher sanctions on Russia, oil prices could fall further as the market shifts focus toward autumn oversupply risks, with IEA expected to maintain a cautious tone while OPEC may project a more optimistic demand outlook.

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Global Trade Loses Momentum Under US Tariff Pressure

The World Trade Organization’s latest forecast shows global trade growth slowing to just 0.9% in 2025, down sharply from 2.9% in 2024. The decline is largely attributed to US tariff measures, which have prompted importers to front-load shipments ahead of new duties, disrupting normal trade flows. While the WTO projects a mild recovery to 1.8% in 2026, the figure remains below earlier expectations, reflecting persistent uncertainty for businesses and supply chains.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that US trade policy continues to weigh on corporate confidence, though the absence of large-scale retaliatory tariff cycles has so far mitigated the potential damage to global commerce.

Capital Rotation Toward Non-US Equities

Tariffs are not only reshaping trade but also redirecting investment flows. For the first time since 2022, international stock markets are outpacing the S&P 500. Year-to-date, major indexes in Mexico, Canada, Germany, Spain, Brazil, and the UK have posted gains of 11%–26%. Vietnam’s VN-Index has surged about 25% in 2025, reaching 1,584.95 in early August.

The MSCI World ex-US Index has risen 18% in 2025, more than doubling the S&P 500’s 7.8% advance. Analysts attribute this divergence to elevated US equity valuations and slowing domestic growth, alongside stronger policy reform momentum abroad. Canada, Japan, and several European economies have rolled out investor-friendly measures and economic reforms, making them attractive destinations for long-term capital.

Tariffs as the Core Catalyst

Higher import duties are expected to compress US corporate profit margins, particularly in sectors reliant on global supply chains. By contrast, many European and Japanese firms face fewer direct tariff pressures and benefit from supportive policy environments.

Craig Basinger of Purpose Investments notes that the investment environment in reformed economies is increasingly favorable compared with the US. Still, strategists at Manulife John Hancock caution that a US recession could spill over to global markets, potentially curbing the benefits of diversification.

In the current landscape, however, the shift into international equities is seen by many as a strategic reallocation that could deliver superior long-term returns, as investors seek both value and resilience beyond US borders.

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Alignment of US–Japan and US–EU Trade Terms

On August 8, a White House official confirmed that Japanese imports will be exempt from additional layers of tariffs beyond current rates, matching the preferential regime already granted to the European Union. This decision ensures that Japan will not face an extra 15% levy on top of existing duties, a risk raised by earlier executive actions.

The confirmation follows negotiations between Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Akazawa stated that Washington acknowledged its August executive order on “reciprocal tariffs” did not reflect the bilateral trade deal reached on July 22. The US has pledged to amend the order to comply with the agreement, though no timeline for the revision has been announced.

Tariff Reduction and Refund Commitments

Under the updated trade terms, tariffs on Japanese goods will drop from 24% announced by President Trump on April 2 to 15%. This also reverses earlier threats to raise the rate to 25% on July 7. Goods already taxed at 15% or higher will not incur additional levies, while other items will be capped at the 15% rate. The US has agreed to refund duties collected above that threshold since August 7, when the new wave of tariffs on major trading partners took effect.

The US–Japan agreement mirrors the structure of the US–EU deal formalized on July 31, which sets the same 15% tariff ceiling and includes a clause explicitly prohibiting tariff stacking. Officials on both sides view the arrangement as a template for future bilateral trade accords, balancing tariff restraint with Washington’s broader protectionist agenda.

By securing parity with EU terms, Japan avoids a potentially damaging escalation in trade costs that could have strained exporters in key sectors such as automobiles, machinery, and electronics. The move also signals a pragmatic adjustment in US trade enforcement, aligning executive actions with negotiated outcomes to preserve trust in bilateral agreements critical as the administration continues to renegotiate terms with other major partners.

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