U.S. Stock Futures Rise; Alphabet Shines, Trade Tensions Ease

Stocks

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

U.S. stock index futures rose Friday as investors piled into technology and artificial intelligence stocks...

U.S. stock index futures rose Friday as investors piled into technology and artificial intelligence stocks following strong earnings from Google owner Alphabet, with the tone also helped by the de-escalation of trade tensions.

At 05:20 ET (09:20 GMT), Dow Jones Futures gained 12 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 Futures rose 18 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures climbed 60 points, or 0.3%.

The main Wall Street indices closed Thursday with sold gains, putting them on a three-day winning streak and on course for a positive week.

As of Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 has a week-to-date gain of nearly 4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 2% and the NASDAQ Composite is more than 5% higher.

Easing of trade tensions

Sentiment has received a boost Friday following a report that China is considering giving an exemption to some U.S. products to its steep retaliatory tariffs and is asking businesses to identify goods that could be eligible.

Citing a source close to the matter, Reuters said a taskforce from China’s Ministry of Commerce is putting together a list of items that might be exempted and asking companies to submit their own requests.

Investors had already been encouraged by indications that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration may be softening its stance towards Beijing. Trump has made China a central target of his aggressive tariff agenda, raising levies on the world’s second-largest economy to at least 145%.

On the economic calendar, the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey is set to be released. The preliminary data showed that households had a deteriorating view of the economy and expected higher inflation due in large part to the global trade tensions.

Alphabet surges on strong earnings

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) shares rallied strongly premarket, after the tech giant reported clocked much stronger than expected earnings for the first quarter and announced a $70 billion buyback.

The company also reaffirmed its ambitious AI development plans, offering more confidence that AI-driven demand for chips and data centers will persist. The company is among Wall Street’s biggest spenders on AI.

Still, Alphabet did flag some potential headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainty, while growth in its ad business revenue, which is its biggest moneymaker, also shrank from the prior quarter .

But Alphabet’s earnings set a strong precedent for other major Wall Street tech stocks, especially those with heavy exposure to AI.

That said, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) slid 5% as weak guidance offset consensus-beating earnings, with the struggling chipmaker also flagging heightened concerns over macro headwinds from a trade war.

Earnings continue to flow

A barrage of company earnings are due in the coming weeks, including from tech giants Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), although the focus is likely to be more on guidance for the current year, especially in the face of heightened economic uncertainty.

Other key companies like AutoNation (NYSE:AN), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL), AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) and Centene (NYSE:CNC) are set to report their quarterly results before the bell on Friday.

Oil heads for weekly drop

Oil prices edged higher, but the market was headed for a weekly decline amid concerns about oversupply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Both the Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were set to decline nearly 2% this week after Reuters reported that several oil producing nations in the OPEC cartel are pushing to accelerate output hikes in June, extending May’s surprise boost, as internal disputes over quota compliance deepen.

OPEC and allies like Russia, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on May 5 to finalize their plans for June output levels.

Source: Investing

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Aggressive U.S. tariff announcements could end up denting consumer prices rather than fueling inflationary pressures, European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann told Bloomberg News.

Speaking to Bloomberg in Washington, where he is attending the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings, Holzmann said that broader uncertainty around the Trump administration’s erratic tariff plans has left upcoming ECB decisions on interest rates "completely open."

Holzmann added that policymakers do not known "where we’ll end up," but noted that he agreed with ECB President Christine Lagarde’s recent assessment that the net impact of the levies seems to be deflationary rather than driving up prices.

The comments come after the ECB, which has slashed borrowing costs seven times since last June, is considering its next policy moves against a backdrop of widespread concern over the effect of Trump’s tariffs. Markets are currently pricing in two more quarter-point reductions before the end of 2025, as well as a 60% chance of a third, Bloomberg reported.

Earlier this month, Trump unveiled elevated duties on many countries, citing the need to rebalance perceived unfair trade practices, reshore manufacturing jobs, and boost government revenue. However, following deep ructions in stock and bond markets, Trump announced a 90-day delay to the tariffs, and has suggested that the White House is looking to secure dozens of trade deals with individual nations.

Economists have flagged that Trump’s tariffs stand to push up inflation and weigh on growth in the U.S., and potentially spread to other parts of the global economy. Businesses, meanwhile, have warned that uncertainty around the on-and-off levies has made it difficult to plan out future investment decisions.

Holzmann said that he anticipates this lack of clarity "created by the U.S. will persist" beyond the 90-day postponement, adding that there will be "scars in the economy" even if Trump ends up lowering the tariffs.

Source: Investing

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Regulatory rollback marks a turning point for crypto-banking integration

On May 24, U.S. financial regulators—including the Federal Reserve (Fed), Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)—announced the withdrawal of multiple supervisory and joint policy statements that previously imposed strict oversight on banks engaging in cryptocurrency-related activities. This policy reversal signals a meaningful departure from the more cautious stance that had defined the regulatory landscape under the Biden administration.

At the center of this shift is the removal of two Fed-issued supervisory letters that required banks to obtain regulatory approval before participating in digital asset markets, including activities involving stablecoins—digital currencies typically pegged to the U.S. dollar and backed by reserve assets.

A clear pivot toward enabling crypto innovation

Alongside the Fed’s action, the FDIC and OCC joined in rescinding two 2023 joint statements that had collectively warned banks about the volatility, legal uncertainties, and liquidity risks associated with cryptocurrency exposure. These now-defunct guidelines had effectively served as guardrails, discouraging mainstream banking involvement in crypto services or partnerships with crypto-native firms.

In its statement, the Fed noted that regulators would evaluate the need for new, more forward-looking guidance designed to “support innovation,” explicitly referencing crypto assets. This language reflects the Trump administration’s broader policy posture—seeking to position the U.S. as a hub for digital asset innovation while loosening previous regulatory friction points.

Strategic implications for U.S. financial institutions

By removing these formal requirements and risk warnings, regulators are clearing a path for banks to more freely explore custodial services, stablecoin issuance, crypto lending, and infrastructure integration. The move lowers the compliance burden and opens the door to a more active role for traditional financial institutions in shaping the digital asset ecosystem.

This creates both opportunities and risks. While banks gain agility to respond to market demand and potentially drive broader crypto adoption, they will now need to develop internal frameworks for risk management without the explicit oversight scaffolding that had previously guided operations. This shift implies a transition from regulation-through-limitation to regulation-through-participation.

A politically charged signal from the Trump administration

The move is part of a growing trend in the Trump administration to align with pro-crypto constituencies, offering a deregulatory alternative to Biden-era caution. In March, the OCC became the first to roll back prior guidance, setting the tone for this broader regulatory retreat. Analysts view this as an attempt to attract crypto industry support ahead of the 2026 election cycle and reframe the U.S. as a competitive jurisdiction for blockchain innovation.

However, the deregulatory momentum may not be universally welcomed. Critics argue that the absence of clear frameworks risks exposing the banking system to volatility and consumer protection concerns, especially in light of previous high-profile crypto collapses. The balancing act between innovation and systemic risk remains a central challenge.

Crypto-banking convergence accelerates under relaxed oversight

With the withdrawal of restrictive crypto guidance, U.S. banks now have a clearer runway to explore digital asset strategies without seeking prior approval. This development underscores a broader realignment in Washington’s financial innovation policy, favoring market experimentation over prescriptive regulation.

While the move may reignite institutional interest and fuel cross-sector collaboration, it also underscores the urgent need for modernized, principles-based regulation. As crypto assets inch closer to mainstream finance, the long-term stability of the financial system will depend on how effectively institutions self-regulate—and how quickly regulators adapt to a fast-evolving landscape.

Souce: Reuters

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Blue River

Forex

Technical Analysis

On Friday, the major currency pair became further entrenched within a local sideways channel, hovering around 1.1339. The US dollar retained gains accumulated over recent sessions, supported by US President Donald Trump’s confirmation that trade negotiations with China would continue.

Key factors driving EUR/USD movements

The dollar received additional support from signs of progress in trade discussions with Japan and South Korea.

Earlier in the week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasised that substantial US-China negotiations would require significant tariff reductions, highlighting the importance of reducing tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Trump also softened his stance on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying he had no plans to replace him. This statement helped alleviate investor uncertainty regarding the Fed’s leadership.

Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack suggested that an interest rate cut could materialise as early as June, contingent on economic data. While this initially weighed on the dollar, the currency regained strength amid renewed trade optimism.

Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.1358. We anticipate the downward wave to continue towards 1.1280, followed by a potential corrective rebound to 1.1427. A subsequent decline towards 1.1045 remains plausible. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line firmly below zero and pointing downward.

On the hourly chart, the pair continues its downward trajectory towards 1.1280, with this level likely to be tested imminently. A corrective pullback towards 1.1427 may follow. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line currently below 20 and poised for an upward swing towards 80.

The EUR/USD remains confined within a consolidation phase, with trade developments and Fed policy expectations driving near-term volatility. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels for confirmation of the next directional move.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Gerik

China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

China eyes Europe to offset U.S. trade closure

Faced with escalating tariffs from the U.S., China is actively redirecting its trade strategy toward Europe in a bid to sustain export flows and repair its global economic positioning. Chinese policymakers, led by President Xi Jinping, are making symbolic diplomatic overtures—including lifting sanctions on EU lawmakers—as a gesture of goodwill. Beijing has also announced plans to welcome more European parliamentarians, reinforcing its message that it seeks closer, more stable ties with the EU.

While some European leaders remain critical of China’s alignment with Russia, recent signals from Brussels suggest a willingness to recalibrate the relationship—especially through more pragmatic economic engagement. EU officials are currently exploring policy alternatives, such as replacing last year’s 45.3% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) with a quota and minimum pricing system, to de-escalate ongoing trade disputes.

Strategic investments and industrial diplomacy take center stage

At the Shanghai Auto Show, Chinese firms outlined ambitious investment plans for Europe, a clear indication of their pivot away from the American market. Executives emphasized intentions to deepen their footprint across the continent, with EVs, digital services, and e-commerce identified as key growth areas. Meanwhile, China has paused retaliatory tariffs—such as those on French cognac—for three months, reducing friction and signaling a temporary opening for negotiation.

Behind these moves lies a calculated attempt to position the EU as both a substitute market and a diplomatic counterbalance to the U.S. However, as noted by Harvard’s Rana Mitter, while Beijing may seek to turn Europe into a "natural shield" for its global ambitions, the EU is unlikely to sever ties with the U.S. or shift its geopolitical alignment wholesale.

Risks of trade diversion and structural imbalances emerge

Amid this realignment, economists warn of an unintended consequence: trade diversion. According to estimates by Eurizon strategists Stephen Jen and Joana Freire, up to one-third of goods previously destined for the U.S. could now be rerouted to Europe. This could inflate China’s trade surplus with the EU by 70%, reaching approximately $420 billion—a development that could intensify political backlash within Europe, especially in sensitive sectors like automotive manufacturing and advanced electronics.

The European Chamber of Commerce in China has called on Beijing to reassess its industrial policies to avoid a stronger response from European institutions. Jens Eskelund, the Chamber’s president, urged Chinese authorities to "rethink how they engage with the world," stressing the need for reforms that align better with international norms and mitigate the risk of economic retaliation.

Summit diplomacy and a potential investment treaty revival

In a sign of mutual interest in preventing further deterioration, European leaders are preparing for a high-stakes summit in Beijing this July. Though originally planned for Brussels, the location change reflects China’s preference and a symbolic shift in diplomatic norms. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Premier Li Qiang have already agreed to launch high-level dialogues on economic cooperation, green transition, and digital infrastructure.

The revival of the China–EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), shelved in 2021 due to retaliatory sanctions, is now back on the long-term agenda. If sanctions are lifted, the treaty could offer EU firms improved access to Chinese markets, while affording Beijing greater legitimacy and a shield against intensifying Western economic containment.

Yet skepticism remains. As Ilaria Mazzocco of CSIS points out, "the summit’s success depends on whether Beijing is willing to make concessions"—particularly on market access, transparency, and data governance. Still, the growing urgency on both sides may create a window for narrowly focused compromise.

Trade rebalancing carries risks—and opportunities

As the U.S. clamps down on Chinese imports, Europe has become the new focal point of Beijing’s economic diplomacy. While this redirection offers short-term relief for Chinese exporters, it poses strategic dilemmas for Europe, including the risk of import surges, domestic backlash, and deeper economic dependence on a politically complex partner.

To manage this evolving dynamic, both China and the EU must pursue cooperative, rules-based mechanisms that support sustainable trade rather than opportunistic flows. Whether through revised EV policies, industrial standards, or treaty talks, the coming months will test the ability of two global actors to reset ties without triggering new fault lines in an already fragile geopolitical landscape.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

A surprise move to counter growing external and fiscal pressures

On April 25, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced an unexpected liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan (approximately $82.3 billion) into the banking system using its one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF). This represents one of the largest net monthly infusions since December 2023, pushing April's total net injection to 500 billion yuan.

The move signals a shift toward more proactive monetary support in response to mounting economic pressures stemming from heightened U.S. tariffs—some of which have reached up to 145% on Chinese exports. According to PBOC officials and policy analysts, the injection is intended to both ease short-term liquidity strains and accommodate the issuance of newly approved special government bonds.

Monetary strategy amidst trade turbulence

Chief strategist Wang Qing of Golden Credit Rating emphasized that the liquidity boost is a clear policy signal. With trade tensions escalating and export demand weakening, China's economic planners are leaning on monetary instruments to stabilize the financial system and preserve market confidence. The timing, just ahead of the early May holiday season and the launch of a major special bond issuance program, further underlines the urgency to keep funding conditions fluid.

This liquidity infusion reflects a causal response mechanism: external trade shocks—such as retaliatory tariffs—have increased the demand for monetary easing to prevent credit tightening and investment slowdown. By expanding MLF operations, the PBOC aims to bridge both structural funding needs and cyclical volatility.

MLF as a dual-purpose liquidity and policy tool

Although the role of MLF has been diminishing in recent years with the emergence of other policy instruments, it remains a vital tool for mid-to-long-term liquidity management. Chief economist Ming Ming of Citic Securities pointed out that the expanded MLF operation not only meets surging liquidity demands but also alleviates near-term pressures from expiring reverse repos, which could otherwise trigger instability in interbank funding markets.

Moreover, the sizable MLF injection may delay the need to cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR), preserving other policy levers for future use. This approach suggests a preference for fine-tuning liquidity rather than deploying broader stimulus measures—at least for now.

Monetary flexibility aligned with fiscal expansion

The liquidity injection is also closely tied to China’s ramped-up fiscal efforts. The government has recently begun issuing a large batch of special sovereign bonds aimed at supporting infrastructure investment, technological upgrades, and consumption stimulation. Ensuring liquidity is sufficient to absorb these issuances is essential to avoid yield spikes that could destabilize broader financial markets.

This alignment between monetary and fiscal tools demonstrates a coordinated macro policy response to complex external shocks. The parallel use of MLF and special bond issuance underscores Beijing’s determination to balance short-term stability with long-term developmental goals, even as global trade dynamics remain volatile.

A calibrated response to a complex external landscape

China’s $82 billion liquidity injection via MLF marks a decisive, though targeted, policy action to preserve economic momentum amid a difficult external environment. It reflects both the urgency created by U.S. trade barriers and the necessity to ensure smooth execution of domestic fiscal initiatives.

While not a dramatic stimulus pivot, the move signals the PBOC’s readiness to act swiftly in support of financial system stability. Going forward, the interplay between liquidity tools, trade shocks, and sovereign financing will continue to shape China’s monetary posture—balancing caution with adaptability in an increasingly fragmented global economy.

Source: Bloomberg

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

Stocks

Emerging Asia shares rallied on Friday, led by indexes in Manila and Taipei, on a potential de-escalation in trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, while currencies in the region struggled for direction.

Equities in Taiwan jumped more than 2%, tracking a tech-led rally on Wall Street after strong earnings reports from Google-parent Alphabet and AI major ServiceNow.

Taiwan hosts some of the world's largest chip manufacturers, such as TSMC, which gained 2.8%, boosting the broader index.

Stocks in Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok and South Korea rose 0.1%, 0.9% and 1%, respectively.

The Philippines share market touched its highest since March 21, reflecting the limited impact of US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. The benchmark was also set for its best week since early March.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase upgraded Manila stocks to an "overweight" rating earlier this week and called them a relative winner through the global upheaval triggered by Trump's tariffs.

"We think the market is pricing in the Philippines’ resilient narrative amid limited impact of Trump 2.0 policies on economy and earnings," said Estella Dhel Villamiel, head of institutional equity research at First Metro Securities.

Currencies in Asian nations were mixed, while the dollar gained, with investors taking a cautious stance amid the Trump administration's mixed signals on trade negotiations and comments on the Federal Reserve Chair.

During the week, the US shifted its tone on tariff deal with China by saying the situation was unsustainable and that Beijing was considering exempting some US imports from its 125% tariffs.

"A case of de-escalation narrative persisting for awhile more should not be ruled out and this can aid US dollar short covering, following the over 10% decline (at one point) since January peak," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC.

Wong, however, added that a broad bounce back in the US dollar may also see some Asian currencies, excluding Japan, come under pressure in the interim despite a conciliatory tone towards the trade deal.

The Indonesian rupiah jumped as much as 0.3% to 16,815 per US dollar and was set for its strongest session since April 10. Jakarta equities rallied 0.8%.

Bank Indonesia, earlier in the week, held interest rates steady in a bid to limit the depreciation of the currency.

Fakhrul Fulvian, an analyst with Trimegah Securities, attributed the rupiah's gain to the "loosening of trade war tensions".

Among other currencies, the Singapore dollar and South Korean won dropped around 0.3% each while the Philippine peso added 0.2%.